British 2yo Racing - 2012 Race Result :- 6 : Thu, April 5th

BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2012 Season Race Result

Race 6 : Thu, April 5th
Folkestone 2:40, 5f Maiden (5)

2012 Season Home
2012 Results

[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.

GOING	TIME	RcPc	Video	VP
GFF	61.32 [Compare]	1	Link	None

	Horse	SP	[EST]	Run	Wnr	Trainer	Dw	Hf	Run Notes
1	Judy In Disguise	5	44	1	D	W. G. M. Turner	4	5	Supp 17/2, B-1 PHmp-2, Ngl Erl STTR, -4L Hf & SwcR Cent, Eff-2f+, Ld ins-2f, Po, 2Clr-1f, po-0.5f
2	Perfect Words	1.2	37	2		M. R. Channon	2	3	Drift 10/11, B1 Hld, H-2 Erl, Drop-in 2R+0.5f Sttld, SwcR-2f, Eff ins-2f, po, FdLt
3	Marchwood	8.5	32	1		J. S. Moore	5	2	Supp 9/1, BRh-1 PNgl Resp, LdgPr+0.5f RL, Ld-2f+, Hdd ins-2f, po, Fd-0.5f
4	Relay	4.5	18	2		R. Hannon	1	6	Fizzy Prelims, BRh-1 Wd, H-2 Erl Drop-in Last, Ngl+1.5f Mod Resp, Dv-2f+ TTR, HgR-1.5f HdUp, SResp-1f to Fdrs, Fd-0.5f+
5	Maypole Joe	5.5	17	2		P. D. Evans	3	1	Supp 17/2, B-2 PDv, Ld Erl 1Wd, Ngl Hf, Hdd-2f+, Outpaced-1.5f+, Fd-0.5f+
6	Missing Agent	22	15	1	S	P. D. Evans	6	4	Drift 16/1, BOk P-2 Ngl, Dv+2.5f RL, Outpcd Hf, Fd-1f+, Small

SUMMARY

Course missed the rain on the preceding days other than a 0.5mm dash. 5mm of watering on previous Friday and 5mm the day before race. Strong NW wind on the day which is a Half Headwind from the left so some cover from trees, stables and the stands.

Preceding 3yo 5f maiden won in 60.83s by 3yo filly with 8-12, same as this winner but 7lbs apprentice on this one. 3yo filly nominally rated around OR70 and comfortably beat 3 others with little form and lower ratings. Later 5f handicap won by 5yo carrying 9-4 minus 5lbs apprentice claim in 60.71s off OR77s

Worth noting that first four races sprint events run down the stands' side. On GFF going running prominently on the rail can be a big advantage and at some meetings the runner to grab the rail and the lead will win. Notably different here with only the empty 3yo maiden won that way. Leading pair here finish 3rd & 5th with PW in S&P 3rd at halfway and JID 4L back having been green early on and not helped by an underorganised jockey. She switch towards centre track at halfway which s often deadly to a chance of being competitive. In the 6f handicap the 2nd in the photo ran the same behind-progress-in-centre track and in the 5f handicap the leaders on the rail folded and the leader came from well back and a few lanes off the rail. Has the rail strip not been firmed up by whatever ground management activity causes the Magic Carpet yet? Or was the stiff wind breaking up the leaders and being sheltered behind and more towards mid-track an advantage?

Bill Turner owns JID and the 7lbs apprentice, his first win in 14 rides and looking very raw and too tall, is his grandson (the son of Kathy's who is the big girl you wouldn't argue with (Turner's words in interview post-race) who leads up many of his runners and does the gold stars on the horse's legs to win the BTO prizes).

Overall race makes sense and summarisable with the exception of just how good the winner is. All the circumstances suggest PW like Channon's Triggerlo in 2011 and shows the same lack of another real forward effort as that one, not through being unwilling but just lacking umph. Some sort of OR60s and you could see why Channon has entered him in a seller. Smaller, weak and front and needs some real development to get beyond that. Marchwood a similar sort but a solid debut by the trainer's standards and the type he will win something with although somewhat below open maiden level. The type the trainer often takes a very long time to find a race to win.

Relay looks a peculiar case and you could again see why Hannon is thinking of trying to 'get rid' of her since she is not that good and a lot of work. Given a 'Bad Horse' ride like she is unwilling on debut and tail flashing and head-up seemed to go with that. The she bounces around the preliminaries here like she might be an enthusiast but the jig-jogging is probably unfocussed. They try to settle her this time and drop her in last and the enthusiasm has disappeared in the race and she needs to be niggled along, head goes up and starts hanging when she should be able to go past the faders late on. If she does turn up in a seller then the stable really know she is low to mid OR60s at best and not sure to ever put a whole race together to show that. Maypole Joe looks like another 2011 Brocklesby echo but for Evans this time. That trainer ran Adranian last year who spent many runs looking slow and fading. After goes in seller he eventually won 9TO over 7f in late September. MJ might be similar in this he is a reasonable size in this context but lengthier and perhaps not a 5f early type. Might take some time but not one to give up on finding his niche late on and probably over a longer distance. Missing Agent another family owned second string for Evans who is an underpowered rabbit and got blown away here and would have to find a pretty bad seller to compete to win.

Which brings us back to the question about how good the winner is given she got from 5th to leading in under 1F and was pulling clear at the finish with PW giving us his Triggerlo Trundle impression but not stopping. The time she ran seems to match ok with the other two 5f races although the pace in the 5f handicap looked slower and matching her to the maiden winner perhaps a better fit. The best of early debut winners the trainer gets often fit into the OR74-81 bracket. In recent years he has struggled to ever get a second win out of them although before that he would win the odd Novice or soft conditions race with them before the form tailed off. Wins by the stable at all after mid season (July) are uncommon and usually in sellers or claimers or occasional wins by bigger types who develop enough to win later. He often is unable to assess those developers properly and loses them in claimers or runs them inappropriatesly (Just Dust & Ocean Transit recent egs). Perhaps not get too excited about JID given the thin race here and the set up and presume she is OR70s (and perhaps lacking post mid-season development potential) for the present and bear in mind his record with developing horses from the debut win of late. Presumably she will run in the Thirsk Novice this month and/or the Salisbury Fillies race in early May and go ok but need a slightly soft version of those events to compete to win rather than place. She would need to show she has more natural early zip to go to the Lily Agnes, and for Thirsk, but given the hampering at the start and the jockey she didn't get the chance here. If, but and maybe.