BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2012 Season Race Result
Race 893 : Sat, October 13th
Newmarket Rowley 2:55, 7f Group 1 (C&G) (1), "Dewhurst Stakes"
[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.
GOING TIME RcPc Video VP
GS 84
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Horse SP [EST]Run Wnr Trainer Dw Hf Run Notes
1Dawn Approach0.3806 g J. S. Bolger 3
3
-3L+ Hf, TTR ins-2f SUnbal, ko-1f+, Ld-0.5f+, Resp to Ln
2Leitir Mor (pt)337412 J. S. Bolger 1
1
Eff Erl & Ld, XF+0.5f, SttlPc+1f, EasyLd, Eff-2f, PO
3George Vancouver16726 A. P. O'Brien 4
6
-6L+ Hf, SwcR-2.5f Cent, Eff-2f STTR, PO ins-2f HgR Whip
4Ashdan4.5633 d J. H. M. Gosden 2
5
-5L+ Hf, Po-2f, po-1f, Eased ins-0.5f
5The Ferryman14583 A. P. O'Brien 6
2
-2L Hf, Outpcd-2f, Fd-0.5f+
6Funk Soul Brother100454 m C. B. Hills 5
4
-4.5L Hf, ModResp-2f+, Adf-1f


SUMMARY
 GS from GSG two days prior. Going Stick reading from 10:00am as 7.0 Stands & Centre, 7.2 Far Side.

Stands Side Course in use. Stalls Stands Side and field raced Stands' Rail.

Medium WNW Wind = Close to Direct Tailwind.

Uninformative race run at a slow pace for grade. Leitir Mor allowed a Soft Lead and running the rail as an advantage. LM the regular Work partner for Dawn Approach and this played out as a bit of work. DA set the task of giving LM a few lengths and then reaalinghim in. As in his previous race in Ireland DA took time to get going and rolled about a bit 1.5F out before getting organised and a strong finish. George Vancouver set a tough task of trying to make a lot of ground in a slower race. This made more difficult by being taken to race in Centre Track and then adding to that by hanging right to the open side in the last 2F. Other 3 unproven at level and running poorly anyway to leave an uninformative race run in a relatively slow time. Not one to be upping horses' ratings on as a general rule. The blog by the BHA's 2yo handicapper said :-

"Thank goodness that Newmarket missed the sort of rain that fell on York, writes Matthew Tester. When Group 1 races are run in a bog you do not find out which was the best horse. You find out who coped best with the conditions. The ground on Future Champions day was as close to Good as you could expect and the races worked out as close to perfect as any handicapper could have wished. The Dewhurst was dominated by Dawn Approach. His sire, New Approach, had won this race in 2007 running to an exceptional 126. Dawn Approach went into this race with a 121 rating from his win in the National Stakes. In truth there were a few seconds in the race when I thought that he might lose. On the downhill section he took ages to get himself organised. But he came up the hill in great style. There is a difference of opinions amongst my international colleagues as to whether he should now be rated 121 or 122. The proximity of his stable-mate Leitir Mor is the fly in the ointment since he was only rated 105 before the race. However, apart from that large fly, everything else falls into place. On my reading he gave an 8lbs beating to George Vancouver. In the Prix Morny, Reckless Abandon had given the same horse a 2lbs beating. So it makes sense to have Dawn Approach six pounds ahead of Reckless Abandon’s 116. We will work it all out when the European Handicappers meet in December. Either way he remains the top-rated juvenile in Europe. "

Final Time and track conditions never come into the discussion so the 'Large Fly' of Leitir Mor improving by a lot on his 12th Outing just gets washed along with basic Lengths-n-Pounds reading of form. Which is also why Maiden races are full of horses being strangled at the back and participating in slowly run Listed races with an overmatched horse is 'spoiling your handicap mark'. Unless you have another motive for wanting to inflate your handicap mark in a bogus manner.

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