British 2yo Racing - 2013 Race Result :- 289 : Tue, July 9th

BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2013 Season Race Result

Race 289 : Tue, July 9th
Pontefract 2:30, 6f Nursery (4)

2013 Season Home
2013 Results

[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.

GOING	TIME	RcPc	Video	VP
GFG	79.8 [Compare]	0	None	None

	Horse	SP	[EST]	OR	Run	Wnr	Trainer	Dw	Hf	Run Notes
1	One Penny Piece	8	47.0	72	3	s	P. J. McBride	2	3
2	Milly's Secret	3	51.7	77	4	a/N	A. Duffield	1	6	Supp 4/1,
3	Scargill	3	50.1	76	8	s	B Ellison	3	2	Supp 7/2,
4	Arabda	4.5	35.1	76	3	m	M. Johnston	4	1
5	Cascadia	8.5	17.4	62	2	s/C	E. M. Burke	5	7	Supp 14/1,
6	Sunset Shore	4.5	23.1	76	5	m	M. Prescott	6	5	Drift 10/3,
7	Midnight Muscida	25	9.1	65	4		T. D. Easterby	7	4

SUMMARY

GFG as on decs. Watering as 10mm Fri, 5mm Sat, 5mm Sun, 3-5mm Mon. GStick 13:00

Rail out for entire race distance, not amount given. Adds around 16yds to race distance.

23DegC. V Light NE Wind = Slight Headwind from Left HS.

Millys Secret on OR77 and seems too high. Her win was in an empty race and she finished closeish to better horses in Nov LTO bec of a slow pace. Work on basis she is low 70s and use 26 Est from her win (not franked).

Scargill looked 60s & seller type on debut. Has improved a bit since (another one to improve after claimed from Channon in a Seller) and prob low 70s. Ran in a low of early season races which now look over-rated if working to +45 on Ests to match OR. Debut rtd 25 = 70, downgrade Rc5 by 12, Rc9 looks okish & downgrade by 4, Rc19 his RDCR slr win looks reasonable as OR66 equiv & leave, 2nd in Firm gng slr at Bath looks too high at 71 given way others have not franked form, downgrade Rc52 by 4, A jump to Est35 (OR80) in slowly run PFCT Cnds clearly too high, downgrade Rc97 by 10. Two later runs now ok around 20. Use 25 as his top rtg = 70.
Arabda beat Millys Secret by 1L on their debuts in slower run CATT 5f. Then blew out at RASCT. Pic of CATT finish looks ok 70 & bit bgr than MSec & rxs lb from that one. Assume OR75 and use 30.
Sunset Shore looks an OR80+ type but OR76 here & 2 of horses with & above her (Scargill & MSec) seem less scope. Has been brought along slowly by Prescott. FTO run at LEIC overrated, downgrade Rc115 by 8, got over-excited with LNGA Rc151 & downgrade by 7.
One Penny Piece pulled clear in a weak looking seller on FTO = winner claimed by Fahey & won weak Auction race since. Check Nov runs STO but has Est 17.5 = 63 which seems fine to leave & use.
Midnight Muscida lost Debut then 2nd in a very slowly race at BVLY then outpaced in a slowly run race 3TO by OR70+ types. OR65 here which owes too much to that Pace affected BVLY 2nd. No PRev nor Pic but use OR15 (60) & expect here to struggle. Type that TDE will win something with.
Cascadia struggled to win weak seller FTO over 6f. Est16 = 61 & A7 so in theory should compete averagely. Use 16 but expect to revisit post-race.

Post Race before VT Review impression of what the hell happened here. Slow time for conditions even given 16yds longer distance. 5L back from front trio to 4th+. Winner has stayed 7f for win before = Staying race? MSecret improved phys since FTO VRev notes not match 3TO impression. SShore not stay 5.7f that well for win and not stay stiff 6f here? OPPc Seller win under-rated? LTO PPc in 2f sprint race.

After watching Video the race seems to have been run at an Average pace at most and perhaps a bit under. 1st 3 home at Hf were Scargill 1Wd SHld & attending Arabda's lead, OPP just bhd Arabda on rail & MSec just bhd her. 2nd two running prof & sttld.

Believable race between those three with 2F+ sprint at finish with Scargill taking Nk lead off Arabda to 2F out & OPP & then MSec hooking up having got off rail and taking until into last 0.5f to get to free-running & swtg Scargill and pair then hdd him near line. Question then seems to be why others fin so far back. Arabda ran like a non-stayer. Got to rail without having to work too hard and did respond the being headed by Scargill. Not really cleared by Scargill when that horse rolled to rail-0.5f to part hmpr Arabda, jk on Arabda saw this coming so backed off and with her weakening then eased so the 5L gap.

SShore ran like either something hurting or some Att issue. Bk ok & running a bit free early but then H-1 to race midfield. But running with HdR for last 3f+ and offering to hang left. A bit Unbal-2.5f. Some grudging resp when asked to make effort-2f+ but not putting hd down & going forward. Jk busy with whil-1.5f as if Att might be suspect but SShore just rolled around.

Cascadia held up at rear and then Jk took time to resp to 2F+ efforts and Cascadia got 2L off back of group making efforts off a usable or slower pace. Made some progress but jk let things go inside last 1F when got to 4th but 1st 3 well clear. MMuscida racing wdst overall and smaller. SOutpcd 2F out and only able effort to -1f when stalling then allowed to fade back.