BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2013 Season Race Result
Race 655 : Wed, September 4th
Kempton Park 8:00, 6f Maiden (Fillies') (5)
[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.
GOING TIME RcPc Video VP
STD 74.89
[Compare]		 -1None None

Horse SP [EST]Run Wnr Trainer Dw Hf Run Notes
1Perfect Alchemy1.536.03 R. M. Beckett 6
5
-2L+ Hf RL Sttld, SBlckd ins-2f, Resp & Po-1f when Clear, LckBld but Ath & Skips over Surface
2Acclio4034.51 C. E. Brittain 5
7
-3.5L Hf, RL Sttld,
3Pretty Flemingo2.533.02 N R. Hannon 2
4
Supp 3/1, -2L Hf 1Wd,
4Miss Buckshot5030.02 M R. Guest 3
11
BAwk-2, NE TTR, -6L Hf,
5Pageant Belle829.71 R. Charlton 10
9
3Wd Erl Bnd & H-2 Drop-in 2Wd, -5L Hf,
6Clapperboard10027.42 Paul Fitzsimons 7
3
2WdOv, -1L+ Hf,
7Prim And Proper3324.42 B. G. Powell 11
2
Eff+0.5f Wd, XF toBnd 2nd 1Wd SHld,
8Artemis (t)3321.42 C. N. Allen 8
6
2WdOv, -2.5L+ Hf,
9Sweet Amaalie2018.42 W. J. Haggas 4
8
AP Blanket & Handler, -3.5L+ Hf 1Wd Ngl,
10Rose Buck1611.71 P. F. I. Cole 1
10
-5.5L Hf,
11Qatar Princess510.22 O. Stevens 9
1
Drift 9/2, GdCnd but Too Fre, Eff+0.5f Wd, FrcXF to Bnd Hld & SlowPc, po-2f, 5th-1f+, QFd,
NRAlfaayza B. J. Meehan 12
NR = Self Cert (Not Eaten Up). Declared 09:12am.


SUMMARY
 22DegC. Light+ Southerly Wind = 3/4 Headwind from Right BS, 3/4 Tailwind from Left HS.

Charlton website pre-race = "Pageant Belle runs for the first time in the 8.00 pm a two year old filly’s six furlong maiden. She was due to run in the spring but had a setback, she is owned by a very enthusiastic group of owners, Axom. She is not blessed with a great draw but I hope she can run well and improve when she steps up in trip."

Suspect form. V Slow Time and compressed field at finish.

Odd first half to race with jog on inside & pressing pair of Qatar Princess (Smaller but ok LSpr, Ok Bld, GdCnd but too Free) & Prim & Proper forcing the XF to the bend then slowing things. Whole field compressed within 6L of Ld at Hf with 3 x 2Wd runners incl one (Pageant Belle) who had to drop back a rank from being 3Wd).

Difficult race to fathom having watched last 3f. Final Time and Compressed nature of results suggests a slow jog and a 2F sprint. But Hf pos vs Finish don't quite support that and some Deep Closing going on late. Deep surface with warm day and surface watering? Fillies in odd mix of abilities at Hf? Needs some thought & some extra input. Check what Rowlands Sect Times summary comes up with. Would expect he will finger Miss Buckshot as one 'to follow'?

Snippet from Rowlands Sect Time debrief = "Sectionals also suggest that Perfect Alchemy might have been slightly lucky to beat newcomer Acclio in the 6f maiden, and that fourth-placed Miss Buckshot should have been right alongside that pair. Miss Buckshot nearly made the sectional to follow list but the overall form of this race could prove to be suspect. " The race produced a 107% finish time and the fastes final 3f (other older horse races at 8-13f). I think 107% means the last 3f time (a 'Relay' time and not necessarily any individual horse = how does that work out?) was faster than the race overall. A figure below 100% means the last 3f was running slower than race overall and prob a fast Pace. For eg the 6f Pace Wars at YORK in August where the last 5f were all run progrssively slower.

A 107% figure indicating a slowly run race and a sprint finish. Interesting to compare how these figures and Sect Times compare to the Hf vs Final Fin positions and LBL/LBTN approach. Hf vs Fin much more intuitive and gives a visual picture of how the race was run, the Flow & Fold. Sect Times flatten all that down to 2D and contain useful info but are less intuitive so put people off. Majority of 2yo Sectional Times prospects 'To Follow' he has put up have been clearly visible on VT and Hf vs Fin. For example, Golden Town's unusually strong close at GDWD. Also worth noting that Sect Times can't inform the Draw and/or Track bias picture in the way that Hf vs Fin can. Another set of useful info crushed out of the visual approach by plain Numerics.

Ponder this from Rowlands as well = "I have lost count of the number of times - it must have been at least twice - it has been suggested that Timeform should increase its poundage allowance for slowly-run races, as the runners finish more compressed and need to be strung out as a result. It sounds reasonable, but misses the point that slowly-run races not only compress the margins between horses but skew the order between them. An increase in pounds per length would increase the inherent unreliability of the result itself. " Unless I'm missing something isn't he explaining how the Timeform ratings published for slowly run races are WRONG, but less wrong than if the increase-lbs-per-length were implemented?

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