BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2014 Season Race Result
	Race 138 : Wed, June 4th Nottingham 2:20, 5.1f Maiden (Fillies') (5)
2014 Season Home 2014 Results	[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level, Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30. Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type. Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish. GOING TIME RcPc Video VP S 62.91 [Compare] 1 None Link

SUMMARY

Soft by Race Time but rain clearing by then. Going changed to SGS at 10:00am. GS at 07:00am from SGS on Decs but firmer than GS after 2 dry dayd. Raining since 06:00am and foecast to continue throughout the day. Outer Course in use. War Alert's Breeze VT starts with her looking Sweaty and hard to hold in the gather area. On that you would check her for how relaxed she is in the prelims and not surprised if she was too free in the race. One of the key differences it seems with Breezes is the horses don't have to race relaxed for 3F until they get to do a 1F+ blast. In the breezes they just canter a bit then are allowed to rocket off at top speed to set a time. She looks middling size with a strong front.but a bit of length and still notably Up Behind (as Blue Aegean looked in her Breeze and another problem with forcing horses to be ready to Breeze). Despite her length she does use her range well and getting her hindlegs well under her later in the breeze. Runs mostly level and straight until rolling right handed 0.5f from the end of the 2f Breeze. Seems a likeable point that she finds another kick when straight again on the rail and niggled by the rider. Should be a bigger type in PRev than Blue Aegean? Picture of field just after Halfway with Blue Aegean leading on the rail from Dancing Moon Lane 1, Three Robins is the filly racing alone out in Centre Track :- After a wobble or two Appleby back on track with STOs looking at their peak. Blue Aegean a bit ragged at times on debut and doing some things less than well and not helped by the jk when final effoerts called for. Looked more knowing here but biggest change was probably to allow her to roll along in the lead on the rail and not get involved with trying to hold her in behind or switching around horses late on. Just let her use her natural pace in a rhythm on a flat track. Had most of the others under pressure before 2f out and a solid effort herself in the last 2f without being startling. Also, the same niggle as when watching Star Citizen go clear in the last 1F 2 days earlier. BAegean a bit head up and eyeballs out like this was a peak effort and would she reproduce it? Or, is the Godolphin trait of regressing after early career peak runs going to show with Appleby even with the less tightly wound debuts? The obvious question is how will she fare in the Queen Mary? Worth just thinking about what is required to make the first 6 in that race. Despite the 'Group 2' tag the quality does vary a lot from year to year. In can often be a 'Precocity Championship' with zippy early fillies reaching their career peak and little future significance. Look back to 2013's Result and a whacking great field but the majority 70s handicappers and worse. Rizeena managed to win despite never being a real 5f filly but Queen Marys with fast paces often break up to allow a better class Closer to get involved. Look at the other 9 in the first 10 home and the number of wins they have totalled since the QMary is around 5. The two later Listed wins were against their own type as 2yos and only Alutiq has won so far as a 3yo and that in a minor 6f event. 80s handicappers tipping over into 90s for the bigger ones and the Group Race 'Top Ten' a function of running in a race where Precocity matters and long term Group quality often unrepresented. Look at 2012's result and it doesn't have a 'Rizeena' to add gilding to the handicappers. On a quick check the first 10 home in 2012 have managed a single win as 3yos or older and that a handicap off OR79 by Threes Grand. The 10 only won 2 other races as 2yos and one of those a maiden win. [Think about those number of wins - this is the first 10 in a Group 2 race for goodness sakes.]. The 2011 race was better quality up front with the first 4 home including 3 that won at Group level as 2yos although that was the Career peak for each of Best Terms, Shumoos & Fire Lily as a readier and smaller set. Caledonia Lady was a bit bulkier and has won a Group 3 at 3yo and a Listed race at 4yo. But she did that while rating around OR98. Behind those 5 you were into the 80s handicappers. That background makes it easier to think about Blue Aegean. She isn't a big girl like Rizeena who had a 7-8f future and the physical scope to compete at higher level as a 3yo. She is a ready, neatly made 2yo with a lot of nautral pace. On quality ground no reason why she shouldn't compete for the first 4 in the Queen Mary so long as she hasn't been boiled dry before then. Where she actually finishes depends on the overall race quality. Against Tiggy Wiggy, Patience Alexander & Co. she is up against her own type so could make the 3. The question is whether there is a bigger filly out there. Aidan? Wesley? Osaila a bigger type than BA and has more length and more scope to develop. She doesn''t look a fast 5f type and more 6f+ developer. Not that fit here and the same puzzled look on her face through the preliminaries and through most of the race. Not fully green but a little surprised by what is going on without losing her composure. An attitude which meant she could get to 2nd without being sharp putting lesser physical types behind her but not able to deal with the zippy, Nowish BA. Ought to be high 80s and prob 90+ with development. Like a mini-Queen Mary we then have a gap back to the, probably, sub-75 handicappers. Three Robins a smaller one and stronger in front that behind. Just ok range. Over 70 and the Hannons will find a winnable race for her and prob a fillies' maiden at a lesser course. Willing attitude. The Stars are Aligning for Fujiano and surely-this-thing-will-go-close-in-a-nursery 4TO. Look at the trainer's record and few wins but those he has are 4TO+ and mostly in nurseries with fillies. The odd winners he get are usually the first one he runs each season. Fujiano is interesting on circumstantials alone. She is a solidly built one of enough size and ought to get to around 70 on that. Two pictures of her below :- The first showing her looking more chunky and composed than her main picture. The second while going TP early alone when she was led for 1.5F and then walked a lot of the rest, some with the jk's feet out of the irons. In her 3 runs so far she hasn't put a race together but should get a usable OR, say in the low 60s. Got miles behind FTO but an ok Closer effort and then a tearaway STO so faded. Mostly settled in prelims here until a bit of On Toes and then settled on the way TP. Then blew the start with her head in the adjoining stall just before the gates opened and then rearing. Got behind given the faster pace but again staying on ok. Bring on the nurseries. Hard to categorise Strategise who was geen in prelims and looked a bit narrow and leggy with the rug on. Looked better TP and seemed to show 65+ form in the race. Zifena a likeable type with some size and ok build. Not fit enough here and lacking 5f snap in her movement behind. But, scope to develop to 75+ but over 6f+. Chasing the pace here so faded as would be expected but a solid effort for 1f+. Ok to follow her development. Dancing Moon a typical Channon filly presentation of looking a bit narrow and light behind and doing it on movement and range rather than pure power. Look at the average Channon one next to an 'average' Hannon one and you wonder whether the difference is due to the physical types they buy at the sales? Or is the feed bill at Channons a lot less than at Hannons or the number of times they run up that hill considerably more? Say a 70ish one but looking a bit light and sweaty here, even by Channon standards, and an early fade having chased the pace. Rolling around and looking pottery in front in the last 2f = issues in prelims & race showing up and she presumably can do better. Probably the case that it is hard to take Heavenlyfriendship & Supreme Belle seriously in PRev because the trainers they are with have such poor records with 2yos. It'll be a miracle if they win whatever they look like. Come on, be professional.....No, still think they are small and No Interest.

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