BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2014 Season Race Result
Race 141 : Thu, June 5th
Kempton Park 6:45, 6f Maiden (Fillies') (5)
[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.
GOING TIME RcPc Video VP
STD 73.19
[Compare]		 0None Link

Horse SP [EST] LBRun Wnr Shp Trainer Dw Hf LBL Run Notes
1Accipiter3356.0-1 V  C. F. Wall 8
2
0.7BkWL Wd, LdgPr+0.5f, XF+1d 2nd 1Wd Sttld, TvCmf-2f+, Po-2f JkQt, Ld-2.5f, Eff-1f+ PO, 4Clr-0.5f+, Po, More Zip than Sz promises?
2Panda Spirit4.544.83.81 M  M. Stoute 5
4
2.7BSAwk Cent NL, Allow XFrs+0.5f & 2R 1Wd Sttld, Ngl to Bnd STTR & -3.5L, NglOv Bnd, SHgL+2.5f, Eff-2f -2L Po, Chal 2nd-1f+ SHgR -1L, Po-1f, po-0.5f, FdLt
3Golden Zephyr2.2538.06.02  J. W. Hills 7
1
-0.7Supp 11/4, BkWL Wd, Ld Erl part XF, XF+1f RL, SFre to Bnd SIncrPc, SFre & SHdOv, PO-2f HnH, Hdd-1.5f SHgR, Stall-1f FrRL, po ins-1f, FdLt, SFre & NStay?
4Shagah2.533.57.51 M  R. Hannon (Jnr) 6
8
6.7Supp 11/4, B-2 Cent P-1, 8th Erl Inx Dv, Resp+0.5f & OntoGrp+1f, SwcL-2f+ Cent, Inx-2f STTR, Po-1.5f+ HnH, 5th-1f Po, po-0.5f, EasedLt in Clear 4th
5Anastazia5029.88.81  P. W. D'Arcy 4
3
2.0BOk Cent, LdgLn Erl ins, Allow XFrs+1f & 2R RL Sttld, RLWL Ov, Eff-2f Po, po-1f+ SHgR Whip, Fd-0.5f
6All My Love1224.510.51 N  R. Hannon (Jnr) 2
7
6.5Drift 10/1, B-1 Inx PBmpRh-2, Dv Erl TTR, Resp+0.5f Ngl, 4R+1f RL SHld, Eff-2f po HnH, SWhip-1f+, po HnH, Fd-0.5f, Smaller
7Rathaath1623.011.01 M  B. J. Meehan 11
6
5.2Drift 14/1, B-2 Wdst Inx P-1, NER, 2R+1f 2Wd, H-2 to Bnd try Drop-in, Unbal+2f HdR & 2WdOv SUnbal SInx, Inx-2f+ TTR, Po ins-2f, SBmp-1f+ po JkQt, Fd-0.5f+
8Astrelle92.018.01 A  M. Botti 3
5
4.2Supp 10/1, B-1 ins Inx PRh-2 Bmp & Hmp others, Dv Erl, Resp+0.5f, 3R+1f RL NglOv, DvHf TTR, DvOv, Outpcd-2f, po-1.5+ FrRL, Fd-1f, Small
9Goolagong Girl50-6.320.81  J. Chapple-Hyam 1
9
9.0B-2 RL Inx, PHmp-2, 9th Erl Dv TTR, Adf+0.5f, DvOv, SOntoGrp+2f, LsGrnd bend to HS, Adf-2f Dv, Fd-1f+, Small
WDPrimrose Valley M  E. F. Vaughan 12 WD AP = Unruly behind the stalls. Needs to pass a Stalls Test to run again.
NRAjaadat M  Roger Varian 9 NR = Self Cert (Sore Shins). Declared 08:35am.
NRFalling Petals  J. H. M. Gosden 10 NR = Self Cert (Other). Declared 10:13am.


SUMMARY
 Medium to Stiff SW Wind = 1/4 Headwind from Right BS, Variable Headwind on Bend & 1/4 Tailwind From Left HS.

10p/£ Rule 4 Deduction.

33/1 winner (minus 10%) and a core question is how much of Accipiter's success down to her ability and how much to the race breaking up in various ways to make it easier to win? Working backwards to answer that question let's work through the race and field to put the conrtext in place before ponitifcating about what quality Accipiter is. The race got much easier to win with Falling Petals a NR and she should have been the class of the field. Interesting to think if she run and won, say betaing Accipter by 2L, then instinctively it feels much less important to explain a 33/1 2nd place than a winner. The race then got easier at the start with Primrose Valley looking fizzy and a bit wound up in the prelims and then refusing to go into the stalls. She was drawn widest and outside of the two who ended up the leading pair on the rail and Lane 1. So PV would either have had to drop-in of, given her demeanour may well have pressed forawrd to lead or attend the pace. Either way if she could have run competently she would have set at least a solif 75 target.

Watch the way the race developed and the Shape it took and it had broken into 2 parts early on the bend. The first 4 at that poiint clear of the other 5 who were having various issues. Stop the race after 2F and it would have needed something 90+ (and knowing enough) to win giving that much ground away. The race was already between the first 4 at that point. With Golden Zephyr & Anastazia not staying the 6f for different reasons that effectively left Accipiter the task of beating Panda Spirit to win given a 3L head start into the HS with PS running green on the bend. As ever, if you hade known that was how the race would set-up then 33/1 is just wrong. But, worth having a think about the quality of the fillies on show. Again working from the back forward.

Goolagong Girl a smaller one but with a little bit of build to think 60ish might be ok if the lack of size doesn't stop that. Too green her anyway and hampered ont he rail soon after the start and soon off the back and chasing a race. Even so, the way she got outpaced2f out and soon adrift looking a negative.

Astrelle being 9/1 seems to have more to do with trainer Botti being 'respected' so his unraced horses often start at shorter prices than they should. If Astrelle had been trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam or Eve JH she would have been somewhere between 20/1 and 50/1. A small one and lacking power behind and another lower 60s perhaps. Trainer Botti has also become much less of a 'Ready FTO' trainer over the years and the FTO wins usually come after mid-season and usually with better class ones. Given that Astrelle was too green to race properly and on the small side whe would have struggled to compete in a seller on debut.

Rathaath for Meehan and also an Educ Intro trainer and FTO winners usually solid 85+ and often needs to be Listed winner level at least. Rathaath solidly built but shorter hight one. Has the power to be 70+ but not that fit here and need to check if the movement is ok. Hard to judge that here because she was running green and got hung out 2 wide on the bend and didn't handle the bend. Showed enough in her 2F out effort yo think 70+ is ok.

All My Love a smaller Hannon on as some sort of 2nd string just getting a Quiet Intro to build from. Her chosen race STO will say a lot more about what level of quality Hannon think she is. GOt a slow start and the jk had settled for a quiet run by the time the bend was reached. Just asked for a bit of effort from AML in the last 2f just to see what the esponse might be then let her drift home.

Dealing with Shagahnext because she was in the back 5 at halfway and the notes here cover why those 5 were out of the race early on the bend. Shagan the best type in the field but not fit for the day and also a bit green. A slow start was also reported by Dettori as an WTRB. Dettori settling for just seeing what response he got in the last 2F and it was good once Shagan got organised. Should be 80+ and another Hannon debut for Qatar Racing not that well tuned (Aledaid, Osaila as other egs).

Golden Zephyr bigger than Accipiter and on STO so should have set the solid target for that filly to beat. But, running a bit free overall and producing less of a forawrd effort than Accipiter in the 5th 1F and then an early fade like a non-stayer. Note that GZ ran with Barry Hills as the trainer with his son John having died on June 1st after a short illness with cancer. Barry had been working as an 'assistant' at the yard in the last 2 season supervising the Hamdan 2yos nominally placed with John Hills but apparently in a seperate yard adjacent to John Hills. Which raises the question of who was responsible for the training of the Hamdo 2yos. With John's death Barry had been issued with a temporary licence to take over the training at both yards. John's 2yos often showed patchy development and GZ run here would fit with that. See how the taining goes with Barry in charge.

Anastazia FTO for trainer D'Arcy who gets regular competent debuts and prepares horses thoroughly. But Anastazia a bit small and less powerful than the winner. Less of a forward effort and then an early fade.

Which left Accipiter with the job of holding off, or putting away, Panda Spirit to win. Stoute rarely gets FTO wins and usually with high class (95+ say) when he does, especially in earlier season. Because of his reputation he is another whose FTOs start at shorter SPs than they should often. PS just a medium on and sleepy in the prelims here. Also running genn on the bend. Those sort of factors on FTO meaning a Stoute debut 2yo has to have quality in hand over the rivals to win. PS finishing 2nd here and indication of how the rest of the field didn't run solid races nor set a 75 standard. An ok effort 2f out with a late fade and misd 70s.

With all that explanation in place it would be easy to dismiss Accipiter as a smaller one who ran competently and found a soft race to win. The 33/1 having nothing to do with her physical type nor readiness and reflecting the 'Cheat Sheet' guide which says Chris Wall develops 2yos with racing so he can have a punt on them as 3yos off a low OR.

But, a bit more than that going on here. Accipiter would have been a very early debut for him on May 19th but for being too wild to go into the stalls. That early a start suggesting even Wall could not be waiting for a 3yo career. In the 214 book Wall says "..she's a sharp little sort that should be a reasonably early 2yo." Which would mean mid-May for Wall but she would have run in the Brocklesby if trained by Turner or Evans. In PRev here she is a smaller one but neatly made and fit enough for the day. Wall has fixed her attitude since WDSR, or she has grown up mentally, and raced very professionally.here. Again it would be very easy to dismiss here and a ready mid to late 60s type winning a softish race (like Cajoling seeing off Stoute's Russian Heroine for eg).

She may lack scope but the kick she produce in two stages in the last 2F certainly looked better than 60s. Is she the type that can 75+ throughg precocity and good movement and attitude? But, at some point that early edge wears off? On the kick she showed here you would take her a more seriously in a Novice or Nursery (certainly on Polytrack) than you would just looking at her. Which brings the discussion round in a circle back to the early point. We really could have done with Falling Petals here and seeing how Accipiter's kick looked when matched against the bigger Falling Petals.

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