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Musselburgh 2:20, 5f Conditions (2) |
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| Horse | SP | [EST] | LB | Run | Wnr | Trainer | Dw | Hf | LBL | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Ko Cache | 33 | 55.0 | - | 4 | v | K. W. Dalgleish | 1 | 1.0 | Drift 22/1, BOk Wdst PRh NL, Resp Erl, AF+1f 3rd 2Wd Sttld, Po-2f, po ins-1f, LdLt | ||||
| 2 | Don't Tell Annie | 2.75 | 54.4 | 0.2 | 3 | m/V | T. D. Easterby | 4 | 0.3 | Supp 3/1, BOk Cent, SFre+0.5f pull to Ld, Hdd+1f & 2nd 1Wd, Ld-2f+ OwnPc, Po-2f, o ins-1f, FdLt & Hdd Ltr | ||||
| 3 | Vimy Ridge | 3 | 53.4 | 1.2 | 4 | m/N | R. A. Fahey | 6 | 1.5 | Supp 7/2, BOk RL, NE, LdgLn+0.5f, Allow Fre XFr+1f & 2R Sttld, TvCmf-2f Blckd JkWait, SwcR ins-1.5f, TvOk1f+ Blvkd SwcL, Bmp thru Gap-1f, po-0.5f+, BTR | ||||
| 4 | Prince Bonnaire | 2.5 | 48.1 | 3.0 | 3 | a | D. H. Brown | 3 | 2.2 | Supp 10/3, BOk P-1, NER, 2r+1f, SStmbl+1.5f -1L Ngl, TvOk-2f Blckd, po HnH JkWait, Blackd ins-1f & BmpFwd-0.5f+ -1.5L, HgR ins-0.5f ModResp, FdLt | ||||
| 5 | Mignolino | 3.5 | 42.1 | 6.0 | 3 | v | T. D. Barron | 2 | 2.7 | Supp 4/1, BRear-1 PRh-1, Dv Erl STTR, Resp+0.5f, Last+f Wdst, Dv-2f+ STTR SHgR, Po ins-2f, po-1f, Fd ins-0.5f, OOSorts Issue? | ||||
| 6 | Diamond Creek | 8 | 28.1 | 8.0 | 2 | m/D | R. A. Fahey | 5 | -0.3 | Drift 6/1, BOk ins PSAwk, Dv Erl Resp, Fre+0.5f & Pull to Ld+1f XF, QHld for 1F+, SHgR Hf, Hdd-2f+ Dv TTR, po ins-2f HgR, Fd ins-1f, Tired-0.5f Unbal | ||||
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GGS from G on Decs. Medium to Stiff Easterly = Close to Direct Tailwind. Fahey in his SL piece = "Vimy Ridge and Diamond Creek both run in the Edinburgh Castle Stakes. To some extent, they’re there because there aren’t that many places to go when you’ve won your maiden, but they’re both nice types and hopefully they’ll run well." 33/1 winner and another race where a balance has to be found between giving due credit to the winner and explaining away the 33/1 long priced win because each of the other 5 ran less than full races. Ko Cache seen in early season and looked small and OR50s. Showed some pace on debut then an early fade on a slow surface. A surprise 16/1 win STO seemed a mix of a rail and pace bias and only a similar type to herself to beat. Her 9th place in the Marygate (behind DTAnnie) a bit better than it reads since she blasted along in the lead and ran too freely. Stil looking small here but racing controlled and able to raise an effort 2F out and see the race out fully. A 60s one getting towards 70 through preococity and a bit 'lucky' here or something better? SPs haven't suggested her trainer and the northern 'circuit' types rate her higher than that. Inclined to see this as an fast early filly lacking scope fining a winnable race against later 70s (poss leak 80 types) who all had issues of some sort. Dont Tell Annie has looked ok in her previous two races but after being held up and making places to the line. She ran the opposite type of race to KC in the Marygate and the pace was fast enough so they passed each other going in opposite directions in the last 1F, DTA a bit free here and racing in the Lead pair with KO sitting seetled 1L back, Producing a similar effort to KC and holding her until a late fade. DTA a bit more physical scope. Vimy Ridge has not seemed a full 5F type and made a 2nd place at BVLY LTO in a Conditions effort by staying on from well back. With smaller ones in the leading line here VR able to travel fine in 2R on the rail. The problem he had was then finding a gap to attempt to go through with DTA & KC battling on together. Explored a couple of gaps from 2F out and ended up 'making' a gap by cutting up DC on the rail. But, by the time he was balanced after that VR only had 0.5f to try to get through a narrow gap between DTA and the rail. He doesn't have the kick to pick up like that and just slow progress to the line. Note that the Jk made a WTRB report to say VR had hung to the left throughout the race. A surprise to see Prince Bonnaire as favourite after looking on the small side in both runs and achieving little in his win. Talked up by trainer Brown and his 'Bargain Buy' in 214. But, BBuy's aren't a quality assessment. He is already a 'Bagain' as he has made the 25-30% of 2yos (depending upon average field sizes) that manage a win each year and didn't cost that much. But that doesn't tell you waht OR level he is. Let's say he is sub 75 to put some level on it. The he isn't that much better than KC and PB another to struggle to find a gap to get from going ok in 2R to ty to challenge. After exploring some options eventually bumped the back of KC around 0.5f out never got balanced after that. Like VR we didn't really see what would have happened if the horses all ran in lanes. The whole vibe around Mignolino a bit baffling. Shouldn't a YORK novice winner be favourite here? On that sort of win he is going to get an 80s OR. But trainer BArron usually realistic and that often feeds into the Market to some extent. A drift here and Mignolino looking out of sorts all round. A slow start, driven along at various times in the race and taking time to respond and a bit of hanging right. Ran the whole race like he had something else bothering him and an early fade. YORK race over-rated given his size? Diamond Creek just seemed to run too freely to find out whether she is better than KC. Pulled to the lead after 1F and never settled. Hanging right off the rail at times and easily headed before 2F out. An early fade and seem to wobble and get unbalanced 0.5f out from tiredness (and a bump from VR). |