BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2014 Season Race Result
	Race 161 : Thu, June 12th Nottingham 2:00, 6.1f Maiden (5)
2014 Season Home 2014 Results	[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level, Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30. Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type. Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish. GOING TIME RcPc Video VP G 74.41 [Compare] 0 None Link

SUMMARY

G from GS on Decs. Stalls Centre. Field raced centre but spread out to Broad Line across the track in the final 2F with Yorkshire Dales on the Far Side of the track and Ustinov making his progress on the Stands' Side. Mixed pace with Leading Pair of Shootingsta & Henley forming up after 0.5f run and both held and contained which set an Average pace at most. But, they wound the pace up by 2.5f out and forcing full final efforts off some of field before 2F out. This ensured enough pressure in the field to fold the prominent racers back in the last 0.5f and later fades for those not fit enough (NFitE) for the day. Interesting set-up for the Paddock Review with 2 runners with previous runs and Ustinov appeared to run very well on debut and pulled clear with a better looking pair and the runner-up has won twice since including the Woodcote Stakes a little comfortably. The horse the other side of a gap back to 4th in that race - Marmalad - has run a solid race STO in bad ground and a bulky, if stodgy moving, one who ought to be 75+. Some ok profiles in the ruck at HYDK. So, Ustinov is going to be a short priced favourite and how does he look? Does he confirm the upside view of the HYDK race? Here are a couple of pictures :- Not the bigger and bulky one expected. An ok Size but looking a bit narrow bodied and looking very fit and tight but perhaps starting to go light. A very relaxed attitude and a so-so coat and you could start thinking about opposing him. Start thinking the other way of how he could have run so well FTO and go looking for positives and what might you say? He length in his body is an ok set-up and allows him a loose, natural movement. The 'down' attitude could just be 'Quiet Professionalism' which along with his movement enables him to make the best of the power he has and lift him above the level a straight 'Power Test' would set him at. Any Power available has to be used efficiently. In the race he was set a stiff task by Spencer by being hauled to the back of the race behind a usable early pace. Produced an extended better effort in the last 2F to get to the lead around 0.5f out as the others started to stall and won comfortably by the finish. "Horse good enough to save Spencer - Shock". Clearly 80+ and an efficient mover but the lack of power must limit him and an OR90 one assisted by the mental maturity and movement? A note to say he is not going to look overpoweringly good in PRev & check if the light build is going too light. Rita's Boy the other runner with previous runs and has made late ground both times after losing a lot of ground early in the race. The way he has made ground back suggesting a 70+ one and around 74. As often the case he looked smaller against this field than he did in early season races against precocious types. That not helped by him appearing to get 'smaller' as his attitude deflated from tip-toe dancing on arrival to notably muted. Fit for the day. Got away ok in the race and produced a solid effort 2F out but fading earlier than average. Running as if 5f would be better for him. Perhaps nudging the 74 down to 73 or 72. Which gets to the point in PRev where Ustinov is better than RBoy and he must have some efficiency factor which lifts him above his looks. But, Frank might mess it up and will donate 2L for free to the opposition so what about the newcomers, any of them appeal as 80+ and ready for the day? The way it worked out 7 of the 8 x FTOs were in the pre-Parade ring early together along with Ustinov and RB. The overall impression of them was of a similar group and fitting in the 66-78 range and subtle differences in shape and power between them. None looking strongly fit nor mentally tuned. Looking like a race to leave alone and treat as an data gathering exercise for the future. Then the last of the newcomers turns up late and already saddled back in the stables. Two pictures of Shootingsta :- Tallest in the field and looking in good condition and bright attitude. Just enough length in his body and a touch leggy but carrying himself well. Best coat condition in the field and the wellbeing only tipping over into over-exuberance occasionally (Pic 2). But, definitely 80+ and physically ready for the day. Niggles in that the trainer has only had 1 x FTO win in 2012-13 after being a regular with better types before that. Also that he tends to get buzzy and free-running 2yos and if that happens will this one see out 6f? Whatever, the prices on offer make backing him a simple choice and a good run by Shootingsta in mostly settling in the lead and then looking a bit green making his final effort but seeing the 6f out ok. Either lacking a bit of pace and bit upright in front in the last 2f or that will improve with experience or maybe he needs 7f. But an 80+ one and ok to follow. Also worth making the point that moaning about being 'unlucky' because he was beaten a nose for 3rd at an each-way price is the wrong way to think about things and will eat you up unnecessarily. Better to ask the question "Was it a good bet?" and think about bets at 25/1 (say) as a long term project. The answer to the 2nd question is 'Yes'". If you back bigger shiny ones at 25/1 then over the long term you will be fine. Don't start totalling your Winnings/Losses after every race - you are just encouraging your body to produce chemicals that will have a negative effect on you. Sugar Lump wouldn't have been the choice to finish 2nd from the newcomers and a medium one with ok length but a bit light behind. Also, typically relaxed and not mentally tight as Hannon's often are. But, being trained in a herd of 100 other 2yos presumably rubs something off on them that being in a small stable with a few others would not. Ran competently but down as a mid-70s one although seemed to run a bit above that in context here. Part of that thought being total respect for the Hannon set-up. If Sugar Lump was trained by a range of others you might be leaning towards using him finishing 2nd as a hint that the placed horses are barely 75-6 range. Super Kid another medium one and a bit deeper bodied and chunkier than some. Another Godolphin 2yo a bit underdone for Debut. Not that tight and middling attitude. But, not looking a better one and say 76-8 range. Henley a bit like Ustinov in looking lean and fit for debut. This sort of over-preparation for trainer Jarvis a regular going back many years to the likes of Free Wheelin. Trainer upbeat about Henley in 214 and showed enough here to think he is ok for 75. Lead around the 1f out mark and late fade hid some of the good work. But less development scope than some in the field. Yorkshire Dales yet another one around medium size and above average build in front in the group. But, not fit nor tuned for the day. Another one making a respectable effort until getting tired and should be 70+ to some extent. Elsworth noting in 214 that YD a bigger one with some scope compared to the half-brother Justice Day who he trained in 2013. He called JD "..small & precocious..". On The Tiles on the expensive side for a Fretwell 2yo and perhaps he has had to tweak his Business Model given the increased strength in the sales Markets recently and also because of his rancid returns in 2013. On The Tiles by the sire Royal Applause but a very different build to Henley, also by RApp. OTT more of the short, fat bloke type of the sire than the narrower and readier model. OTT a solid one with some length and build to develop with racing. Not fit enough to compete here and ran ok given that before an early fade. A niggle that his shortness might limit his movement a bit and can he move his bulk ok given his length. 75+ on build but one to check further in PRev to see what changes as he gets fitter. Ghalib a smaller frame in the group but deep and solidly built. In this field looked at the lower end of the scale and perhaps around 70. Never got to see what he could have done in the final efforts because the saddle slipped. But, had lost a bit of ground before that though perhaps already hanging a bit. You wonder at what point Derek Shaw might admit to himself he lacks the skills to prepare 2yos and either gets someone else in to help him or goes and learns from someone else himself. It seems a certainty on a par with a Kenyan-winning-the-Steeplechase that his 2yos will be the one adrift at the back looking clueless and unbalanced. How do you achieve getting them to all look that bad? You would think some would trundle along at the back in a straight line and finish within shouting distance at the line just left to their own instincts of sticking with the herd. La Brana a smaller one and ok deep and strong in front. A niggle that his front and back look mismatched and he tails away behind. But, if he were trained by Hannon you would be wondering which lesser course he would be sending him to and compete well to win a low level Auction race. Sticking-a-Number on the Shaw 2yos feels like a pointless exercise because there is a huge Anti-Trump Card waiting to flatten any prediction.

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