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Ascot 2:30, 6f Maiden (C&G) (2) |
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| Horse | SP | [EST] | LB | Run | Wnr | Shp | Trainer | Dw | Hf | LBL | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Growl | 10 | 53.0 | - | 1 | B. J. Meehan | 4 | 1.5 | Drift 8/1, BOk P-1, NER, 2R+0.5f Sttld, TvCmf-2f+, Dv-2f STTR SInx, PO-1.5f+, Ld-1f, Resp ins-1f PO, 4Clr Lt & Eased -2L, BTR | ||||||
| 2 | Auspicion | 1.63 | 47.0 | 2.0 | 1 | W. J. Haggas | 2 | 2.2 | Drift 6/4, B-2 P-1, Last Erl SAdf SNgl Rsp, Rcv QCmf to SlowPc, Onto Grp+1f 3R, SwcL+2.5f SPrg, Ngl-2f+ SInx STTR, Po ins-2f, 4th ins-1f Po HnH to 2ndLt | ||||||
| 3 | Flash Fire | 9 | 46.7 | 2.1 | 1 | M | M. Johnston | 3 | -0.5 | Drift 7/1, B1, SEff Erl & Ld Sttld, CmfLd, SIncPc-2f+, Eff-2f, PO, SHgR ins-1.5f, Hdd-1f, Po ins-1f, poLn | |||||
| 4 | Desert Force | 1.25 | 39.2 | 4.6 | 1 | M | R. Hannon (Jnr) | 1 | 1.0 | Supp 13/8, BOk Wd, LdgLn Erl Sttld, TvCmf-2f+, PO-2f JkQt, Dv ins-1.5f PO, ChangeLd-1f+ HgR, Po, po-0.5f, FdLt | |||||
| 5 | Pressure | 14 | 37.0 | 5.3 | 1 | C. G. Cox | 5 | 0.5 | Drift 12/1, BSSlw, NER, SFre+0.5f, Pull to LdgLn+1f SHld, Eff-2f, Po, po-0.5f+, FdLt | ||||||
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GF by Race Time. G in early am as on the Previous day with Stalls Centre. GStick as 9.1 Centre, 8.9 Stands Side & 8.6 Far Side. The Sat figures were 8.7 (Cent/Stds) & 8.4 (Far) Auspicion an interesting oddity as the 9th foal of his dam and the first male she has produced. Probability of getting 8 Females in the first 8 foals = 1/256 = 0.0039. Some Twitter to-and-froing over what on earth is going on when there are only 5 runners in a Maiden like this with £13k to the winner (also a £10k Bonus Race). After a bit of thought you could say that it just the usual 'We need 8 runners for every Race' ideal which always comes up because British Racing is completely Sold on the 'Competitive Racing' ideal of maximising the Levy. An alternative argument would say that the Highest Class races in any bracket SHOULD NOT get big fields because they are catering to the 'Thin Tail' of the Best Quality Available. Group 1 Races shouldn't have 16 runners. If they do then you either have a few really High Class horses and a lot of dead wood. Or, you only have a rare few really High Class horses and in many years the Group 1 fields are catering for a lot of Second Level types (as European Sprinting has been for many years, decades?). This Maiden is a Class 2 and for Males Only. It is setting itself up to be a 'Group 1' maiden and having a field padded out by a lot of sub 75 ones adding nothing (other than a 3rd position for EW punters). This looked a good field for the money and if you divide the Prize Money for the Race by the Total Ratings Point achieved at season end then you would suspect this race would be doing just fine in 'Value' terms. Some of those entirely EMPTY Northen maidens with 14 runners and NO subsequent winners would be worse value in terms of Rating Point per £1 of Prize Money. There was a £7,000 to the winner Class 4 maiden at PFCT on the Day (also a £10k Bonus race) with perhaps none of the runners real OR75 career types, to have a go at. Rather than picking on this solid line-up. And another thing, if you wanted to complain about something USEFUL, and more tractable, then asking why this Males' Only Class 2 maiden over 6f was run 2 days before one of exactly the SAME TYPE at GDWD on Tuesday (with 15 runners declared) would be more worthwhile. Slow Pace and more of a 2f Sprint at the end of a comfortable 4f jog for these horses. Field racing Centre to past Halfway but then drifting more Far Side (slower on the GStick) in the last 2f. Growl a bigger one and notabl fit and professional for a Meehan debut. Given the slower pace took some time to get to the lead but continued his strong effort until markedly eased before the line worth around 2 x visual lengths. Meehan debut winners always used to be an indication of Group quality types. As the ASCT FTO wins suggest this sort of debut effort is Listed+ quality and would expect to see him in a Group race NTO and should be competitive as above OR90 (real). Auspicion talked up by Haggas in 214 and had got Moore to ride (trainer notable for getting the top tier jks, most notably the now retired Murtagh, when he knows he has a good one). Bulky and strong an looking fit for the day. A slow start which Moore let fix itself slowly given the pace. Lacking an immediate effort to match the three best efforts (Growl, FF & DF) at 2f out and got to 2nd late on by sticking at it (plus perhaps a bit of racing more centre). Trainer thought he would be a 7f horse and PRev report saying the saimw. Another good 85+ one and presume 7f NTO. Flash Fire another bigger and solidly built one and bigger than the typcal low slung ones of the sire. Professional enough other than some hanging right later in the race. Good effort 2f out before fading later on. 85+ to some extent. Hannon stanle normally start a lot of 80+ ones at the course although the majority are not ready to win FTO as the stats beow suggest. Desert Force a big, perhaps the biggest of the 5, one but looking too green mentally to win. Slower pace meant he had time to get intot he race and produce a good effort 2f out. That stalled around 1f out as he change dlead and already over to the Far Side on the possibly slower ground. But, a fade in the last 0.5f fairly standard for a Hannon juvenile here FTO. Should be 90+ and ok to follow. Pressure useful to have int he field for comparison. Looking the smallest in the field and solidly built but not a strong as the other 4. Ought to be a 75+ Open Maiden type but looking a lower quality one here. In a field at WDSR of BATH for a 6f maiden he would have been one of the biggest & better ones. Which highlights well what this race is trying to achieve and seemed to this year- bring together a smaller set of better ones. Quality not Quantity and stuff 'Competitive Racing' for a moment and what's wrong with a bit of targetted 'Elitism'? For Reference & General Interest the Trainers' record with ASCT debut since 2002 :- Cox : 8 runs, 2 wins (12/1 & 15/2), & 2 placed & 2 4ths. SP not well correlated to overall ability with Lethal Force at 33/1 FTO for example.. Haggas : 12 runs, 1 win (9/2), & 8 placed. Only 4 x SPs greater than 5/1. Hannon : 51 runs, 5 wins (7/2, 15/2, 9/1, 10/1 & 66/1), & just 7 others placed. Johnston : 18 runs, 1 wins (7/2), & 5 placed. SP split of some sort between 6/1 & under for better debuts and 8/1+ for lesser ones. Meehan : 17 runs, 2 wins (16/1 & 33/1), & 3 placed. Only 1 x SP less than 10/1. The FTO winners were Ctiy Leader (Group 2 winner at 2yo) & Titus Mills (Listed winner STO). |