BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2014 Season Race Result
Race 473 : Sat, August 9th
Newmarket July 2:00, 7f Maiden (Fillies') (4)
[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.
GOING TIME RcPc Video VP
SGS 87.61
[Compare]		 1None None

Horse SP [EST] LBRun Wnr Shp Trainer Dw Hf LBL Run Notes
1Marsh Hawk663.0-1 D  R. Hannon (Jnr) 2
1
-2.0Supp 13/2,
2Fadhayyil3.549.07.01 M  J. W. Hills 7
3
3.5Drift 3/1,
3Light Fantastic647.57.81 M  E. A. L. Dunlop 8
2
2.0Supp 13/2, BkWL, LdgPr Cent-FrSd Grp+0.5f, SFre for 1f HdR, Ngl-2f, Po-2.5f, po-1.5f, Fd-0.5f+, Smaller but Chunky
4Rose Above839.511.81  A. M. Balding 11
6
5.5Supp 17/2,
5I'm A Butterfly837.013.01  E. Johnson-Houghton 4
7
5.7Supp 17/2, B-2 HdUp P-1, JkQt Erl Drop 8th, Resp+0.5f, TvOk Hf SPrg, Dv-2.5f, po SInx, SResp-1f po, Fd-0.5f, Why the Shadow Roll?
6Peeps3336.613.21  M. H. Tompkins 12
5
4.2
7Cascades431.615.71  D. R. C. Elsworth 6
4
3.7Supp 9/2, BOk, NER, LdgPr Cent-FrSd Grp+0.5f, TvOk+3f, SMvAwk Hf SLsGrnd JkQt, LsGrnd Lkg Inx ins-3f JkQt, Fd-0.5f
8Lexi Grady Alice6613.624.71  M. H. Tompkins 5
9
8.0
9Signs And Signals12-20.441.71  E. F. Vaughan 3
8
6.0Supp 16/1,
WDSpirited Acclaim  D. R. C. Elsworth 1 WD AP = Refused Stalls.
NRAmazing Speed  S. B. Suroor 9 NR = Going. Declared 09:19am.
NRAngel Vision  M. Stoute 14 NR = Going. Declared 09:29am.
NRJustify  Roger Varian 10 NR = Going. Declared 10:25am.
NRSweet Dream M  R. M. Beckett 13 NR = Vet's Cert (Bad Scope). Declared 12:50pm.


SUMMARY
 SGS by Race Time. S from GF on Decs. 64mm of Rain in the 24hrs to Early AM. Lot of flooding in the Area incl the A428 dual-carriageway near the M11 looking like a river where it runs in a dip with high 'levees' on either side.. Stiff+ WSW Wind = close to 1/2 Tailwind from the Right.

Race Conditions lay down this is an event for unraced fillies.

10p/£ Rule 4 Deduction.

Race with a Bizarre record in the last 3 seasons (2011-13). A total of 43 fillies have run in those 3 editions and have managed a total of just 2 susbsequent wins during the 2yo turf season. The last home in 2013 won a nursery off OR63 and the 2nd in 2012 won a BVLY maiden 3TO. Such an odd record worth going back a bit further. 2010 had 17 fillies declared with 4 of them NRs. 3 later maiden level wins from the runners and 2 from the NRs. Go back to 2009 and 23 fillies in 2 Divisions produced 7 later winners inluding 3 x individual Group winners. A record which means trying to characterise the race mostly pointless. But, if a third of the runners here proved to be winners it would be a very good year. The winners will mostly be 75+ maiden types but occasionally a Group class one.

Hard to see why I'm A Butterfly cost only 40,000gns at her Breeze Sale. At least medium size with some length and a bit deeper in front. Uses her range in her movement and doesn't move like a sprinter. Another one at the wrong sort of sale? She's a 7f+ filly and people are stood over her with stopwatches to see how fast she can do 1 or 2 furlongs in early season. Goes straight in the breeze and continues to use her range as she tires. Looks fine.

Interesting to compare I'm A Butterfly for a 'cheap' 40k to Signs And Signals who cost 19,000gns at the same breeze. SaS a bit smaller than IAB but a lot less well put together, Looks a 'committee design'. Bit too lengthy and round behind, weak neck and the front not well matched to the back. The breeze doesn't do anything to remove the 'Bit and Pieces' feel. Shows a high action overall and never looking controlled. When asked to speed up she stops using her range and curls the forelegs and ponds them down instead of reaching like IAB. 40k for IAB looks value. If you take a general rule about buying anything that - at the top end you pay Premium Prices for 'Bling' that adds no Value or Substance just and at the bottom end of price ranges 'Value For Money' stops and becomes 'Cheap & Nasty' instead at some point. Where does SaS's 19k fit?

In line with the record of the race recently interesting to work through the Race profile ratings. A number come across as small or backward OB fillies getting started, for e.g both Tompkins' fillies, Justify & Angel Vision. 8 of the 14 are OBs. Only Fadhayyil is a really expensive one at 200k. Others like Light Fantastic looking backward in the trainers website picture. Not getting the feel that this is a maiden 'targeted' by trainers as an 'Unraced Only' field and more getting a field of what happens to be available now. If there is a good one in the field it is more accident than design. To complete the feeling of a 'Mixed Bag' of what's handy on the day the Sires represented are all over the place in distance & precocity terms. Montjeu, Dalakhani, Halling and Yeats at one end and Kodiac, Royal Applause & Acclamation at the other and various types in between.

Hannon's 214 quote about Marsh Hawk says = "She's done really well, she's small and shows plenty of speed. I'd say 5f will be her mark and might be out as early as April.". That's the son of reigning Champion Trainer talking about a filly he sees regularly and lays out the exercise regime for. She's starting over 7f in August. The sort of thing any Paddock Reviewer should think about when they are beating themselves up about getting a Rating 10 points 'wrong' for a small one, (.....having seen it once for 30 seconds while 12 others were circulating and whilst trying to be polite to some Herbert trying to start a conversation with some version of the "You look like you know what your doing..." gambit..etc..)

=============== Post Race =========

Stalls Far Side but Spreading across Half of the Track width. Swift Start from Marsh Hawk in the Widest Stall in Centre track saw her 2L clear early for little effort. Extended that to 3-4L after 2f and again without having to do much beyond go her pace to schive that. With th Leader in Centre Track the others raced in a longish ribbon in FrSd-Cent initially and gradually drifting over to be Centre Track after Halfway. Race run in 0.43ses quicker than the later Sweet Solera.

Clear win by Marsh Hawk who got her own way in the lead and racing widest but turned the race into a 'Time Trial' in the conditions with no Hiding Places. Field behind her coming under pressure & fading, in Order, like a SWEL Race Shape. MH fully ridden in the last 1f despite being well clear. Presumably has grown since the early season comments about her being a 'small' & '5f' filly. But, whatever the set-up a likeable effort and presume she is 85+ & will try Listed+ STO.

Light Fantastic & Cascades both starting ok and forming up into the Leading Pair of the Cent-FrSd group to 3F gone. Cascades perhaps a touch bigger. Light Fantastic looker smaller medium and lacking range. On the plus side a chunky build and a a full trier. LF having to engage her full final effort inside the last 3f to go a clear 2nd trying to at least keep MH in sight. That early start to the lower level effort meaning she was staling and fading from inside the last 1.5f. Were the set of shorter SPs here indicative of a better set or a competive sub-75 group lacking a pre-race standout? Race run in a solid time. Mixed feeling over LF & 75. Size an issue to some extent? Check PRev.

Trainer Elsworth having a good year with his 2yos and talked up Cascades in early season comparing her positively to the better end of her siblings. Saying she was one of his 'Favourites' and he had 'High Hopes' for her. Started ok and sat comfortable in 2R for the first 3f and looking fine. Started looking a bit Green and perhaps moving a short in front around halway. That meant she dropped behind LF. Thsi set-up continued for most of the rest of the race and the jk often looking like he was go to start nigglling or driving but never did. With a Leap of imagination you could think the jk had been told something like = "....we'll give it a go on Soft going but LOOK AFTER HER, if you feel she isn't handling it then she's a quality filly for the future..". [..which would make her switch to Polytrack STO reasonable and explain the dithering but ultimate inactivity by the jk FTO.].





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