 |
|
||||||||||||
Kempton Park 2:10, 5f Maiden (5) |
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
| Horse | SP | [EST] | LB | Run | Wnr | Shp | Trainer | Dw | Hf | LBL | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Merdon Castle | 7 | 40.0 | - | 1 | CP | D. R. C. Elsworth | 3 | 2.2 | Supp 10/1, BOk ins, 2R+0.5f 1Wd Sttld, SwcL to HS, Po-1.5f, -1L-1f Whip, Po, Resp-0.5f+, Po, LdLt, SCmf | |||||
| 2 | Colour Catcher | 0.91 | 37.8 | 0.8 | 2 | C. Appleby | 4 | 0.5 | BkWL Cent, 2nd Erl, XF+1f 2nd 1Wd Cmf, EasyLdgPr, Po-1.5f Duel, po-0.5f, Resp to Ln, Small | ||||||
| 3 | Littlemissblakeney | 7 | 32.1 | 0.9 | 2 | M | H. B. R. Palmer | 1 | -0.5 | Drift 11/2, Held Stalls, BOk RL, Ld Erl, SFre+0.5f SHld, Jnd+1f, EasyLd at SlowPc, Po-1.5f & Duel, po-0.5f, FdLt & Hdd by NewChalgr | |||||
| 4 | Jersey Belle | 25 | 23.9 | 3.7 | 2 | SL | M. R. Channon | 2 | 1.7 | Supp 33/1, BOk ins, 2R+0.5f RL, po-1.5f, Fd ins-0.5f | |||||
| 5 | Foxtrot Knight | 20 | 16.9 | 7.7 | 1 | O. Stevens | 5 | 4.2 | Drift 16/1, B-1, Ngl Erl STTR, 2R+0.5f 2Wd & H-1 to 3R 1Wd, po-1.5f HnH, HgR-1f+ LsGrnd, Fd-0.5f+, Small | ||||||
| 6 | Rasha | 3.5 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 1 | Roger Varian | 7 | 2.0 | Drift 3/1, BLh-1 Wdst P-1, NER, SEff+0.5f Prg, 2R to Bnd 2Wd, 2WdOv, SHgL to HS, TTr-1.5f SInx, po-1f+, HgR ins-1f, Eased-0.5f | ||||||
| 7 | Now Say Boooom | 66 | 2.2 | 10.9 | 2 | L. A. Dace | 6 | 4.0 | BLh-1 Wd, NE STTR, XB+0.5f 3R RL, Ngl-2f+ STTR, Outpcd to HS, Fd-0.5f+ | ||||||
|
|
Medium to Stiff SW Wind = Slight Tailwind in HS, Headwind on the Bend. Notably Slow Time and presumably a Slow Pace with the field well packed at Halfway. Looks reasonable to use the 2nd to 4th home as a 'Marker Race' and judge the others around that. Littlemissblakeney & Colour Catcher forming up as the leading pair on the rail in the BS and having an easy time in front. Jersery Belle on the rail behind them with Merdon Castle & Rasha (2WdOv) outside of her. With the slow pace this left the race resolving into a 1.5F Sprint in the HS with Colour Catcher unable to get by LMB until very late on and a bit better built but no bigger frame than that smaller filly. JB chasing them for 1F but then fading in the last 0.5F. Which makes a believable race shape between those 3 and all 3 below OR75 standard. Even with the race run in their favour the newcomer Merdon Castle able to switch out and wear down the leading pair late on but a better effort tha the final distances given the way the race was run. Other 3 need some excuses having been dropped by so far in the HS off a slower pace. Worth noting that they were the 3 widest drawn and when those drawn nearer to rail form up into a pair of 2x2 pairs on the rail early on the wider draws either have to drop in and will have to be better class to win off a slow pace giving 3L+ head start. Or, they can try to creep around the field 2-3 Wide around the long bend. This 5f course has similarities to CHES in the way the long and tight bend dictates how races are run and punishes wide runners & those dropped in behind - unless the pacemakers go berserk. Colour Catcher a small one in PRev on debut and running very green. Looking more like 'Surplus Stock' than an ok one getting going early. A poor profile for an odds-on favourite and vulnerable to 'anything' with a bit more size and ability. CC only getting past LMB late presumably partly as she folded but also seemed to be 'responding' a bit to MC going by on the outside. 60s. Merdon Castle not outstanding in the group but a bit more length and ok mover. Mark performance up for running down horses (large rabbits) loose-on-the-lead. Some sort of 70s. Willoughby apparently using the 'Windsor Castle type' in his punditry which is almost as pointless as the phrase 'Nice Type'. For a man whose Blog is entitled "The Figures Never Lie" how about sticking a number on it? The Windsor Castle usually has an enormous field with the majority there for-a-day-out and the winner often barely a 90+ handicapper. Half the field, and more, are often 60s to 70s handicappers in the fullness. Littlemissblakeney one of three debut 2nds for trainmer Palmer from 4 goes this season so he has them readier than his MO to date. But LMB a smaller filly lacking scope and ran well in context here but probably lower 60s in the longer term and needs to win soon. Trainer has said in interview that he thought he might be able to win an early maiden with her. He also had a long piece published on the day by Weatherbys where he talked up Aktabantay. Plans to run him in the Coventry, or perhaps the Norfolk since a stiff 5 should suit him on his uphill burst at NMKT. Said the defeat a 'belssing' in the sense that he can run him in a 6f maiden before ASCT rather than having to go to a Listed race like the National Stakes at SDWN on a stiff 5f. Jersey Belle the type Channon will try to win a seller with and perhaps 60ish with the wind behind her. Foxtrot Knight ought to have been a stronger debut on circumstantials. Stevens had 8 individual 2yos winners in his first year in 2013 with those 8 on FTO recording 2 x FTO wins, 2 x Places, 3 in 4-5th in bigger fields and only one 'Lost' debut. His two previous debuts this year have been 4th & 5th in big fields in two of the toughest maidens run this year. Stevens took over Peter Winkworth's yard and he was great at FTO wins at any SPs including with his 'Foxtrot' partnership horses. On the work video of FK on the p'ship website he looks small but a typical Kyllachy in being shorter with some strength. The issue with the video was judging just how small he was. FK had also done a racecourse work with The Paco Kid (4th at NWBY FTO ) at LNGA. PRev showed him usable OR60s but probably still a bit fat. Perhaps a bit green as well but an unappealing effort in the HS sprint and let him develop for nurseries. Rasha another possible 'bigger' newcomer on Profile to trump the small STO ones. But, no she isn't and another small one in a field stiff with compact small ones. FTO runners who don't compete strongly for trainer Varian almost never develop into season winners. Which means Rasha needs to have a lot of slack cut for her because she ran wide on the bend to see her developing to be a solid maiden winner STO. Another to probably llet go and see how she develops for reference. |