BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2014 Season Race Result
	Race 51 : Wed, May 7th Chester 1:45, 5.1f Conditions (2), "Lily Agnes Stakes"
2014 Season Home 2014 Results	[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level, Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30. Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type. Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish. GOING TIME RcPc Video VP GGF 61.53 [Compare] 1 None None

SUMMARY

GGF from G on Decs. Rail fully in so this run over the advertised distance of 5f & 16yds (1116 yds). Rain shower before and during race and Going changed to Good after it. Winners from wide draws are rare and winners carrying penalties are rare. Which means if you just lean on those two facts Mukhmal has done terrifically well to win under a 9lbs penalty from Stall 10 of 10. Always worth considering the actual race circumstances a bit further though. With one newcomer WD AP after the saddle slipping TP and jk Mulrennan bailing out after 1f+ of trying to anchor What A Squirtle. Mulrennan walked the rest of the way to the start and then appeared to tell the handlers who had caught WAS and started working on his saddle that they need not bother and he had probably had enough. Other newcomer drawn inside lost the jk soon out of the stalls. Which left Mukhmal 'only' drawn 8 of 8 and he broke best and only had Casterbridge & Roudee to cross to get to the lead, and they came from stalls 8 & 9. Hanging a bit right but managed to lean on on those two to get to the lead. Having had to work a bit harder than ideal to make the lead on the rail. But then setting an ok pace and able to find enough effort to hang on despite fading in the last 0.5f with the others who raced closer to the pace also fading. A very good effort but not the startling one the 'Stats' trashing suggests. Horses good enough to carry Conditions race penalties almost never run in the Lily Agnes anyway so that stat a bit misleading. The Lord managed it for Bill Turner and hard to recall many other similarly penalised horses in the race. After Full Video review the slower starters and smaller & slower (outclassed to an extent) fillies inside left Mukhmal with the job of getting past Casterbridge & Roudee to lead on the advantageous rail. He was assisted in this by Casterbridge rolling off the rail as Mukhmal started edging in which slowed Castebridge a little and left Kingscote on Roudee squeezed out. The question then is what quality is Mukhmal? MaJo debuts can be baffling and can vary from good wins like Mukhmal to solid horses getting beaten miles for a variety of reasons. You suspect that the FTO winners are the natural racers who don't need much 'racing nous' installed (unlikely the MaJo prep instils this) and have enough zip & natural ability to win on the prep provided. He didn't have much quality running early in 2013 and the FTO wins were ordinary handicappers in weak races. Go back to 2012 and his first three runners were Heavy Metal (Lost debut in the Brocklesby, won STO & 6f Gp2 winner at GDWD, won on this day as a 4yo off OR80 & prob only ever a mid-90s horse despite the Gp2 win), Baileys Jubilee (Impressive winner FTO, won Conds STO then mixed results in Listed/Gp races. no win at 2yo & beaten miles off OR90 last run) & Storm Moon (Impressive debut win, won Novice STO then unplaced in better races. Next win late 3yo off OR82). All three precocious 2yos who failed to develop averagely against the WFA barrier as it rose ("not training on") and early wins not 'trained' into them. Mukhmal an ok size but seems to do a lot on efficient movement and you wonder how much development he has. MaJo runners who have shown this zippy form early have a very mixed record of developing with time (to try to balance the impression of not progressing the 3 egs above suggest you could add in Attraction who was tearing fields up from early April at 2yo). Work on basis he is a solid Listed level through mid-season but needs checking on development to go any further. Presume the National Stakes next? Roudee bulkier than Mukhmal and strongly made. On the other side of that he is a bit stiffer, less rangy, mover than Mukhmal with a bit of knee action. Inclined to view that he has the scope to carry on developing but needs to show more fluent movement, and perhaps softer going, to be solid 90+. Worth noting his performance needs marking up a bit for running Lane 1 throughout (Lane 0 is the Rail). Doesn't sound a lot but you will probably need to be a 5-10lbs better horse than one running the rail in a pair to overhaul it late on. Casterbridge small and more compact than those first two bigger males in the field. But deep enough and ok strong. Some sort of 70s handicapper? The three smaller fillies in the last 4 places all look like early season characters that lack scope and will probably rate 70+ at 2yo in nurseries but their OR will start to decline in later season and down into the 60s (& lower) as 3yos as they try to get back to a level they can compete off. Elizabeth Flynn one of two of the trio entered for a seller at some point (not unusual for Lily Agnes runners at some point in the season). Has a bit more early zip than that and ok range in front to keep rolling in later race but say mid 60s nursery. Charlies Star outpaced by bigger males at NWBY but stayed on the 2nd and thrashed by Tiggy Wiggy for pace FTO. Won a weak race 3TO staying on but the runner-up has been comfortably beaten since at BTON. CS too slow here to keep up with the early pace and position setting. Dropped to the rail before mid-race and then plugging on through faders at the finish. Lacks scope and presumably stay further and will start OR70s but seems unlikely to make that stick (but will probably win again somewhere through persistence because that is what Evans does). Cheerio Sweetie the other 'type' of cheaper filly Evans has who is a bit taller but a bit narrow bodied. Also too slow to keep up with the early pace on this track and ended up running Lane 1 from Stall next to rail and then making her effort in mid track in the lasty 2f. Early fade but should be able to compete in OR70s. Agadoo another seller entered previously and, like Charlies Star, able to place amongst solid quality colts LTO. But that race at DONC messy and the 3rd she managed misleading. Might have some upper 60s ability but needs to settle down to show it. Awash with sweat before the race and then ran it as if her mind was part frazzled. But, too slow and overpowered and the overall demeanour meant she wasn't able to show any of the late race trundling on that CS did, for eg. One of the interests of following 2yo racing is to meet the same 'characters' each season. Different horses but filling a particular role of which there are many in the overall story. When Barry Hills had the licence his regular characters included 1 or 2 colts he started in early season at NMKT or NWBY or occasionally in the Brocklesby or at WDSR in recent years. These would typically be OR79-85 types and would run well on debut and then take ages to win with. Many would improve in later season and win a Nursery as well as their Maiden. The best would go to Listed & Group level. Running at the CHES May Meeting was typical for these types but usually one of the early races they failed to win. Normally in the Maiden at the meeting though and not in the Lily Agnes. Look at the careers of the last three horses he declared for the maiden (2011-13) & Sea Odyssey, Lucky Beggar & Jazz all fit that script. Which means we know Magical Memory is at least an OR79-85 horse on circumstantials. But, he is getting beaten early on because he cannot put a race together. He will develop to win a maiden and be OR80+ and has some scope to be a late season OR85+ developer. He ran too free on debut at NWBY (behind CStar) and wasn't fit enough to see the race out. Here he broke slowly which would have been deadly on its own. The jockey than decided to make things even harder by racing miles off the rail for the whole race, which is suicide here on faster going. In that context the fact that he was able to raise an effort wide on the track to get to around 4th at 1F out before a solid fade was just fine. Needs watching to see whether he is value if he snaps together 3TO or 4TO. Mild interest in What A Squirtle from the view of him loose TP and when being cleared of the tack once caught. First runner for trainer Roberts and with a baffling pedigree being by a sire who raced in Spain out of a slow dam who reached her peak at 5yo over 14-15f. Which means you would be expecting a 'Day Out' runner and perhaps small & peculiarly shaped. WAS in very good condition and wearing an XNB and clearly very fizzy and too lively overall. But also looked well enough muscled and moving ok as he fought the jk TP. Hard to judge his size and needs checking STO but a positive for the training in prepping him for condition & build. A large negative though in having him too wild to even get started in the race.

Back to Top of Page