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Lingfield Park Turf 1:45, 5f Maiden (4) |
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| Horse | SP | [EST] | LB | Run | Wnr | Shp | Trainer | Dw | Hf | LBL | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Wild Tobacco | 3 | 54.0 | - | 1 | R. Hannon (Jnr) | 7 | -0.7 | BOk RL, Ld Erl Sttld, CmfLd, Jnd-2f+ Resp to Hold RL, Po ins-2f, Chalgd-1f+ Resp, Po, Whip-0.6f, Po to Ln SCmf, Bggst Frame | ||||||
| 2 | King Crimson | 5 | 49.5 | 1.5 | 4 | M | M. R. Channon | 3 | 1.2 | Drift 4/1, B1 Cent QHld Immed, H-1 Erl try Drop-in but Pull Fwd+0.5f 2Wd, HldOv, Prg Hf, JnLdr-2f+, Po ins-2f, Eff-1f+, Po, poLt, WTRB = Jk said Ran Too Free | |||||
| 3 | Primrose Valley | 33 | 39.3 | 3.3 | 1 | M | E. F. Vaughan | 1 | 6.0 | BLh-2 Wdst, H-1 Erl, XB+1f Last SAdf Ngl Sinx, SHgL-2f+ SInx, Po ins-1.5f Open RL HnH, SwcL-0.5f+ SHgL, Po, po ins-0.5f | |||||
| 4 | British Embassy | 8 | 42.0 | 4.0 | 1 | N | E. Johnson-Houghton | 5 | 2.0 | Drift 7/1, B-2 Ngl Erl TTR, Dv+0.5f Resp, 2R+1f RL SFre, Dv-2f+ SHgL STTR, po-1.5f+ HnH, Fd ins-0.5f | |||||
| 5 | Town Crier | 1.1 | 37.5 | 5.5 | 1 | W. J. Haggas | 6 | 3.2 | Supp 6/4, B-2 P-1, Dv Erl STTR, ShfflBck+1f to 3R RL, SwcL+2f to 2Wd, TvOk-2f, Eff-.15f TTR, po HnH Ln3, Hmp ins-1f -2L, JkQt to Ln | ||||||
| 6 | Go Gently | 25 | 22.5 | 10.5 | 2 | G. Baker | 4 | 0.7 | BkWL, LdgLn Erl Ngl, 2nd+0.5f 1Wd, Ngl+2f, SOupcd-2f+ SHgL, po ins-2f, Fd ins-1f, Smallest | ||||||
| 7 | Next Generation | 16 | 17.5 | 10.5 | 1 | O. Stevens | 2 | 3.0 | BOk Wd, H-2 Erl, Drop-in+0.5f 3R 2Wd, Ngl Hf Sinx SHgL, STTR-2f, CarrLh ins-2f, po-1.5f Cent JkQt, Fd-0.5f+ | ||||||
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Showers on day and GGS by race time (which presumably means there is a new Lake forming at the 7.6f pole). G from GF on Decs with a strange note that the going is S from the 7.6f start to the 5f start = What magical line is there at the 5f pole? 4.6mm rain on Thu and 5mm overnight. Very Strong WSW Wind = 1/4 Tailwind from Left. Stands Rail in by 5 metres. But rail bias still looking to be active with the winner racing the rail and 3rd placed Primrose Way plugging on up the rail in the last 1F past the wider running green ones and faders. The CW Stevens interviewed before the race and said his 2yos were behind where they had been in his first year in 2013. He put this down to a wet winter. But, clearly extra info to put into a Prf algorithm relying on 2013 data. Worth recording for future referece that the winter was mild (no sub-zero temps nor frost in middle England at all) then there was a brief warm spell towards the end of March. That proved a 'False Spring' and the weather has been stuck in region of temps 10-15 DegC with bouts of strong winds and rain. Similar to the Winter but a touch warmer and a bit drier. Next Generation looking smaller in the group and mentally blunt. Wild Tobacco a size bigger than King Crimson and also helped by racing settled against the rail. KC a tearaway by nature and LTO ridden to try to settle him and not to try to win the race. KC ended running 2Wd early on & off the rail here and fighting the jk for 2f. Eventually the jk relented, or got tired, and allowed him to pull forawrd and lead and he then settled better. Jk didn't take the decision to clear WT and move across to the rail. With green and wide running ones behind race developed in a 2-up work gallop between WT & KC and WT taking time to get on top (jk Levey the usual Hannon trained unhurried in letting WT get balanced and then finish race), but going away at the line. Being bigger helping but also with KC having compromised his own chances (again). With hindsight the jk on KC would probably have been better off letting KC go forward early and leading on the rail. By not doing that KC has lost his chance of ever beating WT off level weights. But, being below 75 it always means a 2yo is vulnerable to something bigger in an Open Maiden. Brief Quality Summary. Wild Tobacco a solid size if slightly narrow. Probably a good sign he can win at 5f and can probably develop over 6-7f. Should rate 80+ and interesting to see what level the Hannons pitch him at STO. Likely to be in an ordinary Novice (i.e. not a Major Meeting) but see how that works out. King Crimson useful as a Marker horse. He presents as a solid low 70s horse who will be vulnerable in open maidens. He now has two solid places in maidens but comfortably beaten by a 75+ newcomer each time. If he could settle down and run a competent race he could win some form of Maiden where his 70+ level is the best on offer. Primrose Valley green and niggled along off the back before halfway although that had the advantage of being able to run the rail. Did more than just 'run through faders' with her later race effort once a little composed. The biggest of the fillies and say 71-74 range. A caveat with that is how trainer Vaughan's record with 2yos has declined since he proved able to wind up lesser types to win in his early career. No 2yo win in 2010-12 and although 2013 looks ok at the Headline level you can still pick holes in it. Claim The Roses won FTO because he was good enough anyone could have won with him. His 3 later runs then bounced higher & lower rating figures. He took until 6TO to win with Genuine Quality and the win with Adventure Seeker 3TO was a bizarre race. AS was 10L off the lead earl in that race but was allowed to jog through to take an easy lead. Not a horse winning 3TO because of Top Work by the handler. Of particular relevance to Primrose Valley was that her half-brother Costa Filey ran a similar promising enough plugging on FTO debut in early May in 2013 and looking an ok size. 3 later run saw very mixed results and he seemed to be going bonkers by 4TO. Look at her picture here and you would like to see her calm & settled STO and not likely she will be ready STO to run to her Top Level (in the way you can rely on a trainer like Hannon).. British Embassy an early runner for the trainer and she does front-load. Usually she has them ready FTO and they often regress STO and then pick up ratings again later in the string of runs. He looks ok for low 70s on PRev and seemed to have got to a good position 2R on the rail. Didn't pick up well when asked for the 2F out effort and some hanging away from the rail and an earlyish fade. Capable of winning but check how he develops and how long that takes. Circumstantials for Town Crier all say he should be useful and probably 90+. Early start for a major owner. Trainer had got the Top jockey on which he wouldn't bother with for a lesser ability one. Supported in the Market and Haggas' record with Supported 2yos 2010-12 was a 0.35 ROI at opening SP. So, the question is whether all that circumstantial stuff was just coincidence given the poor run. On PRev he looks ok for 80+ and an untypical Acclamation in being a compact sprinter type & with some range. Slow start got him behind but on the rail although Moore then started switching out wide to race well of fit. Disappointing effort in the last 2F even given with the wide running and going nowhere when barged out of the way by the plugging on PV as she switch around BE. Filly and the Gap going faster than he was.See what the circumstances ae STO but more of a solid low 80s nursery type than a better one? Go Gently a small one if neatly made but overpowered here and another Baker 2yo not progressing from FTO despite his constant "dont overtry them at home, will come on for run" stuff when interviewed. 50s Nursery Type and might leak 60. Next Generation not looking that ready in line with trainer interview and relaxed and calm to the point of not being mentally ready to compete. Jk did not try to put her into the race and she ran wide for much of it. A quiet intro for a 70ish one developing for nurseries? |