BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2014 Season Race Result
	Race 63 : Mon, May 12th Windsor 5:50, 5f Maiden (Fillies') (5)
2014 Season Home 2014 Results	[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level, Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30. Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type. Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish. GOING TIME RcPc Video VP GGS 62.46 [Compare] 0 None Link

SUMMARY

G by race time but heavy rain shower before racing and during the race. Going changed to S after this race. GGS form G on Decs. Medium+ Westerly Wind = Direct Tailwind in HS. Rail Out by 5yds from the 6F pole down to 2yds at the Finish Line. JW Hills blog pre-race = "Lyfka ran a nice race against colts at Leicester and should benefit from that race considerably. She would ideally prefer faster ground but I notice she is 50-1 in today’s paper and her chance is reflected by at least the deletion of the 0." Plus marks for using some numbers but JWH steps around the large issues of how good Lyfka is in his opinion (SANOI) and also explaining what he's done to cure/improve her wayward attitude. The people doging her in the parade ring and struggling to get her into the stalls at LEIC would probably use a range of words to describe her, and 'Nice' wouldn't be on the list. CB Hills weekly Blog = "This week we start off with a couple of nice two year old prospects......Rocking The Boat has been showing us plenty of speed at home and we're looking forward to running her at Windsor." A second fillies race on the day won by a long priced winner on STO after an invisible debut. The first of those at LNGA a weak race and 'undefended' & up-for-grabs to a large extent. What to make of this one? A slightly different story probably with a better set of fillies than LNGA but still a poorly defended one partly because of the conditions and also the lack of readiness (& high class ability) of the two newcomers at shorter SPs. A slower time off what looked an average pace and a question over jhow much the rain had got into the ground? Was the winner the only one seeing out the 5f on the going or does she have some ability above her mid-60s appearance? Rather than worrying about beinf 'right' a good idea to state what we think we saw and then try to get "Less and less wrong" as more information comes along. Cajoling a smaller & lengthy one and positives for professionalism in the prelims and the race and handled the conditions well. But, low to mid-60s at best on PRev and that perhaps a bit high. Perhaps her competence and movement are lifting her a bit nearer 70. Leaves the impression her pulling away at the end more to do with the lack of opposition. A race whcih cried out for Hannon's Daydream Believer to be in it to add some real context to this result. Imagine the finish with Hughes sitting quietly on DB as she ran on to win comfortably by 2L with Cajoling chasing her. That would have resolved a lot of the niggling feelings of what is really going on here. Easiest next to deal with the last 3 fillies home. Fujiano seemed to show some usable 60s ability getting back from being adrift FTO. She is a different physical type to Cajoling with a bit more deptc and strength. But, she went from being clueless FTO to a tearway this time and fighting her jockey in the lead for the first half of the race. See how she develops and probably ok to be competitive in sprint nurseries low 60s. John Hills' comment about Lyfka leaves out a lot of 'back story' and having a blind spot about his horses and what needs to be done to improve them might well be informative. Lyfka still difficult at the start here and then after the slowest break then running too freely+0.5f after the jk had got after her and being held back hard. From the horse's point-of-view than 'What do yo want, Fast or Slow?'. How about a bit of sitting a bit quiet early and getting her balanced since the pace isn't that strong? Head a bit up and racing away from the rail in the last 2f before the fade. Another possible usable one but with a lot to fix and with a downside trainer. Trainer Margarson another with a negative record with 2yos. A typical year being 1 winner and that with his best 2yo. They often compete well on debut but take time to win. Others with ability don't convert to winners. Lady Kyllar a smaller and chunky one typical of the sire. Not physically not mentally ready here. Another possible low-mid 60s but with the trainer a negative. Racing widest. For interest the pictures show the first 3 home with their respective dams alongside :- The first thing to note is that it was always sunny in the Olden Days. Looking at Cajoling next to her dam Acquiesced (rated around OR80) helps to bolster the view that Cajoling is a small one who found a winnable race. She isn't the strongish girl her mother was. Which brings us to the issue of what Russian Heroine was doing in theis race? Trainer Stoute has had just 2 winners before July since the start of 2005, one on June 22nd and a debut win by Russelliana on June 11th. That filly went on to place in the Cherry Hinton. So the pre-race question would be is RH Group Class? This is important also for the reason of whether she had any chance of winning FTO. Stoute doesn't do strong debuts and would think the idea of "readying one for debut" uncouth. He isn't that bothered about 2yo racing overall and more interested in developing careers. Which means RH would need to be able to compete to win in Group races to compete to win FTO. A solid Hannon debut would be enough otherwise and a solid STO by a 60s one like Cajoling was too much here. RH looking underdone in fitness and a bit green. Moore getting an ideal clear run on the rail but just HnH overall and RH fading in the last 0.5f. RH looks nothing like her superstar mother - Russian Rhythm - who has produced just useful winners to date. RH on the small side and compact. Deep front but still a bit up behind. Looking a bit more like a smaller, zippy sprinter if she is anything and that lack of career scope perhaps why she is out early. See where she goes NTO and what the market says but looks 70 if she is a zippy sprinter and check if the circumstatials cross that. Rocking The Boat does look a bit like her mother in being a smaller and compact one. 90k purchase price looks to have a lot to do with owner breeders trying to buy a broodmare than her physical substance. Trying to buy into the 'Family' of Superstar Leo & Enticing and listening to Auctioneers crooning "look at that page" when they try to sell RTB's foals for inflated amounts. Mostly window-dressing all that but the people playing that game carry on regardless without acknowledging the issues. RTB not ready mentally to compete here and another looking below Open Maiden level.

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