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Hamilton Park 5:55, 5f Maiden (5) |
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| Horse | SP | [EST] | LB | Run | Wnr | Shp | Trainer | Dw | Hf | LBL | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Billyoakes | 3.5 | 48.0 | - | 2 | N | M. R. Channon | 5 | 0.3 | Supp 7/2, B2, Ngl Erl, 2nd+0.5f 1Wd, Lo4 from+1f to-2f, Ngl-2f+, SOutpcd-2f, po, HgR-1.5f, Po-1f+ from 3rd-2L, SwcR-0.5f+ Wd of LdgPr, po, LdLt, Resp to Ln | |||||
| 2 | Denzille Lane | 8.5 | 41.3 | 1.3 | 1 | M | M. Johnston | 3 | 0.2 | Drift 8/1, BOk Wd, Resp Erl LdgLn, Wdst Lo4 from+1f to-2f, SHgR-2f+, STTR-2f, PO-1.5f+ HgL, Chal-1f+ 1Wd Po, Ld ins-1f, po-0.5f+, Stall ins-0.5f , HddLt, FdLn | |||||
| 3 | Rita's Boy | 3 | 39.0 | 3.0 | 2 | M | K. R. Burke | 7 | 9.0 | Supp 3/1, B-2 RL, LsGrnd Erl JkQt, Sadf+0.5f SNgl, LsGrnd+1.5f to be Adf Hf JkQt, Dv-2f+, Po ins-2f, Dv-1.5f Resp Po, SwcR-1f+ to Cent PO, 3rd-0.5f Po, poLt | |||||
| 4 | Spend A Penny | 1.75 | 32.3 | 4.3 | 1 | J. J. Quinn | 6 | -0.2 | Supp 2/1, B1 ins, Ld Erl XF, Ld in Lo4+1f Sttld, IncrPc-2f+, Po-2f HnH, 1.5Clr-1.5f, Chalgd-1f+ Po, Bmp-0.5f+ SUnbal po, FdLt, Biggest | ||||||
| 5 | Robben | 20 | 28.5 | 5.5 | 1 | K. A. Ryan | 2 | 6.0 | BOk Wd P-2, Ngl Erl STTR, XM+0.5f Dv, SLsGrnd+1f Dv, po ins-2f, SwcR-1f+ around Fdrs, po, 5th-0.5f, FdLt | ||||||
| 6 | Millgate | 14 | 23.3 | 7.3 | 1 | R. A. Fahey | 4 | 0.5 | Drift 12/1, BSawk Cent PDv Resp, 2Wd+0.5f Lo4, Ngl Hf, Dv-2f+, SOutpcd-2f, po ins-2f SHgR, Sqzd ins-1.5f -2L, po-1f+, Fd-0.5f, Smaller | ||||||
| 7 | Just The Tip | 16 | 17.9 | 7.3 | 1 | A | K. W. Dalgleish | 1 | 2.2 | Drift 12/1, B-1 Wdst, Ngl Erl Resp, Cent+0.5f & H-1, X to RL+1f 2R, SOupcd-2f, po, SUnbal ins-1.5f, HdUp-1f MvAwk, Fd-0.5f+ | |||||
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GSG from GS on Decs. GStick reading from 06:45am with a Dry day Forecast. Billyoakes = Puzzling day with regards to Channon and 'reading' his work Gallops VTs. These have been misleading to various levels in last 2 years in trying to use them for PRF purposes. 2014 better until today with the two standouts on the work VTs winning FTO (Bossy Guest & Moonraker) winning FTO. Aside from those two the only other winner for Channon in 35 runs to yesterday had been a FTO win by Loretta Martin. But that filly off the back and struggling for most of her, very weak, BTON race and won through luck more than ability (with the very limited Chetan looking as promising). Wheels came off today with wins in open maidens for Billyoakes & Juventas. How much of their wins STO down to finding winnable races and how much down to errors in judging their Work VTs & FTO runs? To add to the difficulties a small filly called Persun (looked a bit better than 60 River Spirit on her last work VT) finished second in the NWBY fillies Condition race. That was at 25/1 but the time looked ok and leaving aside the Channon info the race could be rated higher more believably. Time for a serious ponder & look back at the VTs, plus see what the pictue of Persun looks like. Her Pedigree seem very non 5f and non precocious. If you forget about trying to improve, get closer to the signal and trying to think in individual horse & race set-up terms then Billyoakes makes simple sense. Before this win Channon's record with 2yos at HTON is 16 from 56 (29%) and you could easily make up a 'Man On The Spot' style plonking, & unthinking, "Channon doesn't send them to HTON for the air..." Tip summary. Then bounce up-and-down 'Booming' when Billyoakes wins. But, the aim must be to try harder than that and not get stuck into that limited way of thinking out in the Field of Noise. Because of the small fields and short SPs that 29% Strike Rate would have meant a loss overall since 2002 until Billyoakes made it a small profit. Took 13 years, but 'BOOM'. Probably better to think of the problem as how to split the 29% from the 71% by looking at the horses (the primary Signal) in various ways to cut out the large number of losers at HTON as pre-race possibles. In that attempt some calls are going to be wrong. But, at least it makes you examine the race properly afterwards to try to understand what is going wrong. Rather than polishing your favourite Stat before holding it up to the light to feel warm and 'right' (subtly different from Correct). Quinn's Spend A Penny cost £180,000 at the Doncaster Breeze-up sales a month ago. At the circumstantial level he was at the low SP which would mean the trainer was going to let him compete to win FTO. Looking at the Breeze VT of SAP at DONC on the plus side you would say he looks a bigger type and manly as he gathers to get going. In motion he looks less good and seems to have a fast, choppy, action which isn't properly timed F to B. In line with that he gets tired in the last 0.5f of the breeze. Presumably he must have done a good breeze time to cost that much? Or were the bidders working off other pointers? That VT the reason for holding his PRF down because that action (from 4 weeks ago) didn't look likely to produce a horse staying on up the hill here FTO. Correct, or not? Post VRev = Review at season end in light of an Anchoring issue whereby Work Gallops set a 'quality level' that can be hard to shake as season develops. Also in light of how much of this race description turns out to be trying to explain the problem away. Billyoakes a smaller one in context of race and there might be 2, or even 3, horses in the race that prove to be better than him by season end. Ran competently in the leading line but then part outpaced and not picking up immediately 2F out as the pace upped. Dropped to 3rd 1-2L back. Could say that it was then his experience and fitness that enabled him to plug in the last 2F past 2 horses who had gone a little clear of him inside 2f out. Work as 74 and see how that matches up. Denzille Lane a bit bigger than Billyoakes and had the disadvantage of racing widest in the Lo4. Also took time to pick up 2F out and allowed SAP to get a break on him. But a solid effort once balanced and hung left back across Millgate & Billyoakes to engage the leader. On top of SAP when he gave that one a bump as well as DL got a bit unbalanced in the lead. That lessing of pace allowed Billyoakes to catch him. A brief response to that then DL fading late. An above average FTO for trainer and late 70s? Rita's Boy another who ran a less than fully competent race to allow a 'Billyoakes' style Channon smaller one success. Got behind on debut after a slow start and then taking a long time to respond to the jockey to get going. Then showed a strong effort late on to get to be placed. Similar here except for the jk seemed to allow him to get adrift on the downhill part. A likeable effort once switch wide to get to 3rd in the last 1F before tiring. Probably a bit better than the winner but needs the getting too far behind bit fixing. Spend A Penny ran a competent race and allowed a comfortable lead on the rail. Able to go 1-2L clear off that lead by upping his effort as the other 3 in the Lo4 took time to pick up. But staling inside-1f and given a bump by DL before-0.5f and tiring after that. Biggest in the field and 80+ if his movement proves ok. Robben a smaller one and perhaps a Ryan 65-69 type. Useful to have him in the race to compare RB's effort to. Also got behind downhill but with the jk active and still around 3L ahead of RB. Just a plugging on effort from Robben staying on towards the faders. Millgate another smaller on and similar to Billyoakes. TTR and a bit outpaced 2F out then squeezed out of a gap between DL & Billyoakes. Some mild pluggin on after that before an earlyish fade. Just The Tip looking a filly up against males in physique and not the chunky compact type of her sire. Ok movement but overpowered by 2F out and then started moving awkwardly with her head up. |