BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2014 Season Race Result
	Race 91 : Wed, May 21st Kempton Park 5:50, 5f Maiden (6)
2014 Season Home 2014 Results	[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level, Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30. Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type. Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish. GOING TIME RcPc Video VP STD 60.11 [Compare] 0 None Link

SUMMARY

After a fews day with a lot of races which need some careful interpretation after they are run it's good to have a predictable and understandable one like this. Pre-race all the horses seem to fit into a known range and a fair bit known about how they race. The only unknown to bother about, as is often the case, is When Will It End (depends how fast you rune, 60secs+). A Bluffers' Guide summary before the race, with some PRev in it would say something like LMBlakeney is a reliable late 60s filly drawn 1. She sets a good benchmark. HHurricane is a small one and similar level to LMB with the 5lbs sex allowance. But he's with a less reliable trainer who struggles to convert and to get 2yos to progress. Distinct feeling he will be poor value because his Form (2 x 3rd) will be over-valued by those looking at race titles and classes and not at the horse. Zebs Lad likely to be more a development project for a trainer who, unlike Baker, builds horse's careers. ZLad likely to be back here in late season when he is a proper racehorse. Thumper has looked bulky and a bit slow, mentally and in pace, and this technical 5f around a sharp bend not for him. He hasn't shown anything to suggest he is up to LMB/HH's current level anyway. Despite Channon's recent burst of winners Jersey Belle is small and should be overpowered by LMB. Hannon only get FTO wins with better types and on this 5f course which punishes slow starts and bad track position that counts more. Does WWIEnd look like an 85+ type who can find a way to wind even if he flounders around a bit? Here is the start of the summary Hugh gave (@hughonthehill, and picture credits) having seen them in the prelims = "Well, When Will It End was clearly not ready as soon as he arrived in the paddock. Calling and colty and although I am sure he will end up better than Hurricane Harry, no bigger. Little Miss Blekeney looked immaculate and super fit........Little Miss Blakeney – A typical case of a well prepared nippy one scooting around the inside rail. 70, Harry Hurricane – notwithstanding my doubts about the trainer he appeared just a little dull in his coat. 67 When Will It End – Reasonable athletic type but mentally unready.... [sum-up of the others]". With which Hugh has summed up how to think about the race before the jockeys have got on. Does he now know more than is generally known about the runners and can judge where any value might lie in the prices offerred? You can take PRev to further levels but in a race with a clear 'Story' before it is run a brief look at the horses will crystallise the 'right' approach to take. You still have to make the right bets, which is another skill to work on. TO put a bit more post-race thoughts then the race played out to suit Littlemissblakeney just about perfectly. She got an untroubled run around the rail while the others were hanging left and getting in each others' way. With that going on LMB looked quite good with her effort in the HS. Perhaps her movement is getting her above 70? Or were there fast conditions here? Looking back to her STO run she got an easy lead here on the rail and got run down by bigger colts. She has probably improved a bit but the quality of opponent here was clearly less. Hary Hurricane still a small one and lacking scope and Baker not getting any closer to the early win HH needs before his precocity advantage evaporates. HH not helping here by running a bit free then hanging on the bend which lost him the rail and meant he had to extricate himself in the HS. Only made a similar level of effort to LMB though and couldn't sustain as long. Here are two pictures of When Will It End in the prelims :- Looks a different type to the compact small ones like HH & LMB. Taller and length and lighter behind. But this is a track where small professional ones that zip aound the rail can take some running down int he HS with a headstart. Has WWIE got the nous and the basic pace to solve that problem? Is he 85+ and find a way to win anyway with Hughes doing that thing where he crouches even lower and delivers the horse to lead on the line without any of the 'strength' display British punters seem to want? In the first picture be looks a bit better and his tail is going up in a way that says he is about to start display prancing. Making him look bigger and better, by tightening his muscles on hopped around on tip-toe, is the whole point of the display. In equine terms it's him trying to impress other horses or warn potential predators he isn't a soft touch, or whatever. In the second picture he looks too lenthy, shallow bodied and a bit weaked necked to be a zippy 5f one. As Hugh soon saw his mental readiness to race wasn't there. Which is how the race went for him. Got behind from a slow start by being clueless, got into the race around the bend but then taking time to get going in the HS and not making ground on LMB/HH even when he hit his Top Pace. He opended 15/8 2nd fav and drifted and 60secs ok PRev would tell you that must make one/some of the others at value prices. Hugh's opinion of Zebs Lad that he can develop to win on the AW in the 60s and that sounds ok. A Harris Nursery development project. and physically looks ok for that. A lot to fix with running too free, hangling left on the bend and right in the HS but Ron will get on top of it by later season. Jersey Belle ended up running 3 Wide around the bend with her jockey trying to make her keep up with the leaders rather than drop back. Which was suicide and she ran worse than her 50s level. She did plug on a bit in the HS and Channon will find some awful quality race for her by persistence. Make it a Northern Seller if he is really struggling. And finally to Thumper and a brief aside about 'Taplin's 2yos of 2014' book which arrived on the day. First page opened Michael Bell said Arousal was his Bargain Buy with a lot of upbeat words. Robert Cowell made Thumper his 'Bargain Buy' saying "strong, ...sharp early sort...doing fast work now [April]... definitely a sprint type and knows his job".A further look at the book to find neither Dr No nor Cotai Glory are in it. But the book is endlessly daubed with self promotions and gushing endorsements. If only someone would do a better way of tracking and celebrating 2yo racing. Perhaps a website with pictures and that updated throughout the season rather than a static paper book which is out-of-date before it arrives. Maybe the Website could take a realistic view of the horse's quality and careers rather than letting trainers talk up every horse positively and unquestioned. Even better if the website used numbers and only ever used the word 'Nice' ironically. Better yet, if the website laid out all the siblings of each 2yo, including the garbage every one else tries to hide and in date order. The website could also avoid claiming that listing sibling amounts to 'Pedigree Analysis' unlike Taplin and his admirers. If only someone would.... Anyway, was Cowell looking at the right horse when he made those comments? Thumper has looked tubby and pondeous in all 3 runs. What speed was the 'Fast Work' at? There are going to have to be some unhinted at FIREWORKS in nurseries for Thumper and Arousal (small overpowered slow & looking useless in 3 runs) to make the Bargain Buy labels look sensible. And if there are I hope the BHA come down heavily on the previous outings. Cowell given an 'out' on this run because Thumper was carried wide around the bend. But he rolled around in the HS looking ponderous and the fastest movement he made was to dive right after being hit with the whip on his left flank.

Back to Top of Page