British 2yo Racing - 2015 Race Result :- 127 : Tue, June 2nd

BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2015 Season Race Result

Race 127 : Tue, June 2nd
Brighton 2:10, 6f Maiden (5)

2015 Season Home
2015 Results

[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.

GOING	TIME	RcPc	Video	VP
GSG	76.98 [Compare]	2	Link	None

	Horse	SP	[EST]	LB	Run	Wnr	Shp	Trainer	Dw	Hf	LBL	Run Notes
1	Mirage	3.5	10.0	-	1			J. A. Osborne	6	5	9.0	B-2 Wd, JkQt Erl, XB+1f 5th, -9L+2f Ngl, , Ld ins-0.5f frpm Tirers, Small to Smaller, OkDp & Mvr, IP, BldOk = Stronger than RTR?
2	Cuppatee	16	7.8	0.8	2	S		M. R. Channon	5	4	6.0	BOk, H-2+0.5f Drop-in 4th, -6L+2f, Small IC
3	Welford	4	10.5	1.5	2	M		M. Johnston	3	3	3.2	Supp 9/2,
4	Raj To Riches	3.33	10.4	1.6	5			P. D. Evans	4	1	-3.0	Drift 3/1, B1 Cent 2Clr Immed, Eff Erl, XF+0.5f 3Clr, Set Too StrongPc, , Fd-1f, Hdd ins-0.5f Tired
5	Auxiliary	2.5	2.4	4.2	2	N		W. J. Haggas	2	2	3.0	Supp 11/4, BKWL RL, 2R+1f RL Fre & Hld, the OOShot until 4th ins-1f RL, Fd-0.5f
6	Cross Examine	7	-33.6	16.2	1			D. M. Simcock	7	6	11.0	Held Stalls, B-2 Wdst, TTR Erl, Adf+1.5f Dv, InxOv
NR	Captainthunderbolt							B. J. Meehan	1			NR = Going. Declared 08:45am.

SUMMARY

GSG from GGS on Decs.

CoC Quote = "Rail dolled out 3 yards 4.5f to 3.5f adding 5 yards to distances.".

Another meeting this year with a Very Strong SW Wind and Gusts up to nearly 50mph Last meeting abandoned after 2 races for similar conditions. Very Strong Headwind throughout the race.

=== Pre Race ===

Auxiliary Moore ridden on debut & too green and ended up and HNH education. Showing some promise later on. Solid build but with a longer neck which he held at angles at times FTO and hanging right (not fully going forward last 2f). Haggas in 215 saying he should be a tough 2yo but hinting that he is an ordinary one. Haggas targetting him at BTON STO feels like a purposeful 'Class Drop' to get a win in the Hannon mode. More professional here or are the Head Up & hanging traits more fundamental?

Cross Examine the first runner of the season for Simcock at a typical time. Another of those younger trainers who used to get 'Ready Debuts' early in the career but a lot less so as he has become established. FTO wins now rare and seem to need special circumstances. Only FTO win in 2014 with a late August debut by a Breeze Buy who won by 10L and a Listed winner later. Clearly an 'abnormal' debut win with a lot of exceptions. Doesn't seem to Front Load as much now and early runners can be various quality. 2014 a poor year with 2yos for him and some Front Loading showed up but with placers versus unplacers at 2yo. Question over whether Cross Examine is some sort of exception. In 215 Simcock saying he is a 'natural', 'will be the first 2yo runner', 'surprised me with how well he goes'.

In a field of 'Class Droppers' to BTO Mirage as a 150k, well enough related filly who sold at the premier Europen 2o sale seems a bit anomalous. But, a good bit of the 150k may well be pedigree rather than physical substance in these cases. Osborne in 215 seeming to confirm this by saying Mirage is "not over-big" & "hasn't done as well as i Thought". Which makes her sound like a different sort of Class Dropper. A small filly whose racing ability bears little relation to the price paid for her. The job now being to get her out and win 'something' to make her '2yo winner' labelled when she goes to the breeding paddock. Spencer riding a FTO filly, on soft going, with 50mph gusts = anything could happen here and a 50%+ chance of an ugly finish to the affair.

=== Post Race ===

Showery, poor visibility and strong wind as 2yos AP. Visibility so poor that horses out of shot from about 1.5f gone until into the last 1f when the camera in the Stands finally able to pick them up. Going changed to fully GS after this race (no 'Good in places').

Another FTO winner ridden by Spencer and as with the others a result more of the way the erace played out rather than any nous from Frank. Jk doing what he always does but the pace too strong and setting the race up for a closer. The small and rabbity Cuppatee staying on fro a Volunteer 2nd another indication of the way race fell apart.

Raj To Riches a serial pace presser who has thrown races away before by going too fast. Took off in the lead here and only the chasing pair of Welford & Auxiliary within 2-3L of him when the horses disappeared into the murk before 2f run on the ridge. Cuppatee in a distant 4th, Frank & Mirage well back in 5th and the slow starting Cross Examine adrift in 6th. When the horses reappeared with just over 05.f to run the first 3 through halfway visibly tired and reduced to a walk. Which meant Spencer in a position to stay on past dead horses (one of only two ways he can win od debut 2yos, the other being high class naturals) to win. With the young jk on the tiny and limited Cuppatee able to follow on later on with the males now barely walking.

Race Shape note = for the 'Prince Frank is God' club who would think this write-up is someone trying to deny Spencer any credit for anything, then think on these numbers. There have been 129 races so far this season. This win by Mirage was the furthest back any winners has been at Halfway (9L) and a ridiculous amount of closing for any 5-6f race. The second biggest 'Closer' this season came from 6.5L back. Spencer's other two FTO wins rank as the 10th & 13th biggest Closers out of the 129 races to date. Your Honour, I put it to the defence council for Mr Spencer that their client is winning races by luck when the races fall apart to suit his style, and/or, when the horse is good enough to get him out of the hole he has jumped into.