BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2015 Season Race Result
Race 193 : Fri, June 19th
Newmarket July 7:05, 6f Maiden (4)
[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.
GOING TIME RcPc Video VP
GF 72.57
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Horse SP [EST] LBRun Wnr Shp Trainer Dw Hf LBL Run Notes
1Elronaq138.0-2  C. B. Hills 7
1
-0.5Supp 5/4,
2Edification1628.33.32 N  M. Meade 3
2
0.5
3Easter Mate2521.55.51  R. M. Beckett 16
7
2.7
4Melabi720.06.01 M  W. J. Haggas 11
4
2.0Supp 8/1, B-2, Dv Erl, JkActvOv, 2R+1f Ngl for 1f, Whip+2.5f, Dv-2f+, Po-2f Cent, po-0.5f, Fd Ltr
5Nemoralia2.7511.77.11 M  J. Noseda 10
6
2.7Supp 3/1,
6Hope Cove209.99.31 N  Ed Walker 4
8
3.0BkWL ins, LdgLn Erl, H-2+0.5f, 2R+1f RL, TvOk-2f, Po-2f HnH, Chal 4th-1f+, po-0.5f+, EasedLt
7Bigmouth Strikes28-1.313.11  D. Menuisier 5
5
2.5BOk ins, 2R+0.5, SFre & Hld for 2f+ No Cover, TvOk-2f+, Po-2f HgL, po-1f, Fd ins-0.5f, Mdm 70--72
8Dubai's Secret8-8.115.41 M  R. Hannon (Jnr) 9
11
4.2
9Sakada33-8.215.41 A  R. Hannon (Jnr) 2
9
3.2B-3, LastRk Erl Dv STTR, OntoGrp+1f, Dv-2f+, Po-2f, po ins-1.5f, Eased-0.5f+ (Why?), 60s
10Royal Mighty (h)66-17.716.92  J. Chapple-Hyam 6
3
1.5
11Atrayu66-12.716.91  P. W. D'Arcy 1
12
4.7B-3 RL, Dv Erl STTR, 3R RL+1.5f, SInx & SFreOv, TTR-2f SBlckd, Whip ins-1.5f, SResp, po HnH, Fd-0.5f+, Too Inx, Educ Rd
12Resonator66-14.217.41  P. W. Chapple-Hyam 14
13
5.0
13Rebel Raiser50-17.218.41  D. Morris 12
10
3.7
WDZauffaly  E. A. L. Dunlop 15
NRGatillo  G. G. Margarson 13 NR = Going. Declared 16:38pm.
NRJustice Rock  D. R. C. Elsworth 8 NR = Going. Declared 09:24am.


SUMMARY
 GF in early am as on Decs. 12mm of Watering "Monday/Tuesday", 12mm on Thursday. GStick reading from 07:15am.

Stalls Stands Side.

Medium+ NW Wind = Close to a Direct Tailwind.

=== Pre Race ===

Atrayu sold for 44k at the premier Tatts Breeze having made 50k as a yearling. Breeze Video starts with the long shot and already into the last 2f. Atrayu looking typical of the sire and probably at least medium height and a strongish deep body with a bit of length. Presume a slow breeze and just a middling cadence and perhaps bit 6f and 7f+ type. But, real problem seems to be how green and wary the horse is. Not really going forward and thinking about things rather than getting on with it. Marries this to holding his head to the Left throughout and wobbling Right then left at various points. Breeze not a reflection of his power but to improve needs to wise up and prove the movement issues are fixable by nous and a bit of physical development.

Nemoralia cost $170,000 at a 2yo Florida breeze sale in March, A 'Private Sale' and not recorded on the RP data. In 215 Noseda says Nemoralia breezed well and reminded him of La Chunga (2yo Group winner) who he bought at the same sale around 10years before. Noseda went through a period of buying expensive lots from that Breeze sale for owner Ogden. A mix of result with 3 good fillies - LC, Sander Camillo (2-3yo Group winner) & Francesca D'Giorgio (Albany 4th, CHinton 5th). Also some even more expensive slow ones mixed in. All 3 of the god fillies debuted in late May or very early June with 2 x 5f starts and SC at 6f. In 215 Noseda saying he expected a late May start for Nemoralia so he clearly saw the same development path. Interesting to know she is a real '6f' type given the notes below but also why the later June start?

Breeze Video for Nemoralia shows her at least medium size with some body length. A bit leggy and uses that range fully with a fast cadence. Did 10.0 seconds dead for the timed 1f despite appearing to begin the furlong by 'jumping' a shadow. Looks fine for a 5f start like La Chunga so why start her here? Is she being targeted at the Cherry Hinton back her in July like SC & FD?

=== Post Race ===

Interesting race to think about generally in terms of being a 'late' 6f maiden at a major course. Do the field usually end up being sprinters or more 7f+ types? Good 6f 2yos often show it early and have early season debuts. The Coventry Stakes this week was won by Buratino who won the first 2yo race of the year in late March. The 7th home was his runner-up that day and the first 7 home had mid-May debuts in the earliest 6f races as the latest starting point. Look back to 2012 and the usual mix of expensive yearlings and Breeze buys. But, the race only produced 2 x Open Maiden wins plus a couple of Nursery successes (the 2 x NR added a Maiden and a Nursery to the total by season end). But, just one of the subsequent wins were at 6f (by one of the NRs) with the rest at 7-8f.

A smaller field in 2013 and only one subsequent winner in the field - at 7f. Every member of that field other than the first 2 home ended the season running over more than 6f (10f in one case). As in 2012 the winners was the best 6f type and still running over 6f at season end. Similar set-up in 2014 with a larger field declared (incl NRs) but just 2 x later Open Maiden wins & 3 at nursery/auction level. Only one of those wins at 6f (extended) by a runner who ran only at 7f afterwards. Again the first 3 home the better 6f type and none ran over further than 6f by season end. The 3rd home trying Group level. Which gives a pattern of expecting the best 6f types (which may be just 1-2 horses) to get to the front and have a range of 7f+ developers behind. There may well be limited numbers of winners and quality behind the real 6f types despite the 'expensively acquired field.

===

FIeld race spread centre track to Stands Side. Average Pace with a sweaty and free running Elronaq leading running alone towards Centre track with Edification racing alone in 2nd on the Stands Rail.

[June 25th] Atrayu seeming to match his Breeze inexperience married to some bulk positive in PRev. For example one PRev summary was "Green and calling throughout prelims. Bit of substance to him. Maybe 2nd biggest in field. Not hard fit. Should improve considerably with a run or two. 72 maybe better". Rewatching the Video with that thought in mind Atrayu's lack of nous shows up immediately. Drawn next to the rail and a slow start and after a few strides driven along in a last rank (along with the Hannon pair Sakada & Dubai's Secret with Nemoralia only just ahead in 10th. Atrayu in the last rank of 3 with the Hannon pair to past halfway (joined by the green Resonator going backwards to off the back). Atrayu head a bit up throughout and hard to judge how much green, wary or thinking-about-it. Jk asks for a bit of effort inside the last 2f without wanting to do more than a bit of Educ Intro' initially. Horse taking time to respond and decide whether to follow Hope Cove in front or switch L or R. HC makes forward effort leaving space and jk resorts to whip to get atrayu to do something. A bit of low level plugging on after that before a fade/eased. Still looking very wary overall and a hint some of that attitude. Does not move straight in front and throws left foreleg out notably. Looking like a Nursery project with some 70+ potential is that attitude is positive enough.

[July 8th] Melabi & Hope Cove run against each other STO having shown similar potential here. Trainer Walker baldly admits in 215 that HCove is a bit smaller (saying he lacks an inch or two) but built like a bull. Haggas less straightforward in 215 about Melabi but just so-so for a 250k one. Saying he is strong and "a 2yo". Look at the pictures of the pair here and they are similar types. Smaller, for expensive buys, but strongly built. Looking 2yos and how much scope unless they are pure sprinters? Melabi a bit more compact and deeper body. HC perhaps a bit shorter in height bit a bit more length and a touch more quality (hard to define but not just a square block).

Melabi & Hope Cove running in different parts of the track. Melabi in Centre Track and given a very unusual active ride by Dettori on a Al Shaqab FTO. Dettori adding early light whip slaps to non-stop niggling, driving etc. Hard to judge whether that was just horse being green or some unco-operative attirude. Just and ok lower effort before fading. Might be favourite STO and looking one worth opposing on size & attitude/promise grounds here. Hope the Market over-reacts to the connections and 'Respect' price-making on show.

Hope Cove looking a touch less strong than Melabi in the VRev but more straightforward. HC a good break and accepting being ask to drop in. Travelling fine to 2f with Dettori working through his range of encouragement tricks on Melabi. A 1-2L better, and more professional, forward effort than that one and late stall and fade meant he finished well back back from the hard ridden Melabi having travelled better through the race for 5f+. Interesting call between them STO but HC likely to be better value.



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