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Ripon 2:15, 5f Maiden Auction (4) |
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| Horse | SP | [EST] | LB | Run | Wnr | Shp | Trainer | Dw | Hf | LBL | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Excessable | 3.33 | 34.0 | - | 1 | T. D. Easterby | 6 | 3.2 | Drift 3/1, BkWL ins, 2nd Erl SHld, X to RL+1f Clear 2nd Sttld, TvCmf-2f JkWat, SwcR-1.5f Prg, Ld-1f OwnPc Eff, PO HnH, PoLt, | ||||||
| 2 | Risk Adjusted | 3.33 | 25.5 | 3.5 | 2 | M | A. Duffield | 3 | 7.0 | Supp 7/2, BSRear-1 P-1, NER, SUnbal+1f Cent Ngl, Dv+2f, SwcR Hf Dv Prg, 4th-1f Po Cent, SUnbalOv, po-0.5f, SQLn, HUpB | |||||
| 3 | First Bombardment | 2.25 | 26.0 | 4.0 | 3 | D. O'Meara | 2 | -3.2 | BkWL Wd, Ld Erl, Fre+0.5f Pull to Prg, XF+1f 3Clr QHld, FreOv, Sttld Hf, TvOk-2f+ JkWait, po-2f, Eff-1.5f HgR, Po, Hdd-2f po SUnbal SHdUp, FdL:t | ||||||
| 4 | Lady Argentum | 11 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1 | R. A. Fahey | 1 | 7.7 | B-2 Wdst, Ngl Erl STTR SInx, Resp+0.5f, SNglOv, XB+1f 7th, 4R RL+2f, DvHf TTR Inx, po ins-2f, Fd ins-0.5f, Smaller Block | ||||||
| 5 | Sing Something | 5.5 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 1 | D. H. Brown | 8 | 6.2 | B-1 RL, NER, 3R+0.5f RL Sttld, DvHf, SwcR-2f+ po, SHgR ins-2f, po, HgL-1.5f Ramp SLsGrnd, SBmpR ins-1f, Fd-0.5f+ | ||||||
| 6 | Imshi's Little Bro | 16 | -3.0 | 13.0 | 1 | R. A. Fahey | 7 | 5.0 | BOk ins, Dv Erl Resp, 3R+0.5f 1Wd SFre for 0.5f, DvHf, SBmp-2f LsGrnd, Unbal-1.5f, Fd-1f+ | ||||||
| 7 | Association | 66 | -19.0 | 17.0 | 2 | J. R. Weymes | 5 | 5.7 | BOk Cent, 3R+0.5f, DvHf, SBmp-2f+ LsGrnd, Fd-1f+ | ||||||
| 8 | Mr Lucas | 28 | -115.0 | 49.0 | 1 | P. D. Niven | 4 | 13.0 | B-3 Cent P-2, Dv Erl Inx TTR, Adf+1f Dv, NIR, Small, Mdm Bld, Short & Stodgy, Trundler | ||||||
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GFG in early AM from G on Decs. 2mm of Watering Overnight. Stiff NW Wind = Half Headwind from the Left. ============ Fahey in his SL blog on Friday = "Lady Argentum & Imshi’s Little Bro both make their debut in the Auction Stakes. From what we’ve seen so far neither are stars and I’d be surprised – but delighted – if they were able to win this first time up - we’ll see!". ======== Trainer Easterby regularly uses the RIPN races in April to start the best of his 2yos although this his first debut win here since 2011 (he had 2). Ponty Acclaim won this race in 2011 FTO before going on to be one of Easterby's 'late season improvers' who win at Listed+ level. As often is the case Ponty Acclaim proved 'just a 2yo' and never won again in a long 3-4yo career ending up getting thumped off OR90 (a two-fat-horses type 2yo in reality). Excessable's Profile rating held down by an unappealing yearling picture. On the Video evidence here he hasn't grown in height much but has bulked up notably and very strong in front. Also a straight mover, willing and a mature attitude. The second strong, and likeable, debut of the day at 5f and looks ok OR85+. Worth noting that Easterby came over all 'canny northerner' in the after race interview when saying Excessable only cost 6,000gns. But, this is so misleading. Because Sales Prices only show a limited correlation to Final Ability you could give 'your grandmother', or a random number generator, the budget Easterby takes to the sales and instruct them to buy 60+ horses between 5,000 to 30,000gns and they would buy some 'Excessables'. But, what about the big pile of garbage? As so often in so many fields, not just sport, we only hear positives and the Silent Evidence of the failures, or just inconclusive items, is never heard. Racing types and Twitter seem a particularly bad form of this and not just the Herberts 'Boooming' when they have stumbled into a winner. Endless trainers reporting their wins and never the losses. Sales reports trumpeting the hugely successful 'Pin Hook' while ignoring the enormous number of failures, and so on. The Twitter balancing 'Silent Evidence Reporter' is needed. For example, here it would say Nice winner for TD Easterby at RIPN, but how many goes throwing the dice did it take him to come up with a 4 & a 5. More of the same from First Bombardment and a Top Level monkey after a career of 3 runs. Running to freely and tearing off into a clear lead with only Excessable able to follow him. When the Jk asked him to make a kick 2f out the head went up and he started rolling around and nothing much happening. He was visibly beaten before any horse had overlapped him. I thought O'Meara was a training genius? FB should be kept visible as , currently, Non-Silent evidence to weigh in the balance on that discussion. === Post VRev === Biggest point from the review is just how strong the pace set by First Bombardment was. 3L clear when he XFd after 1f and stretching the pace for the next 1f. Only Excessable within 5L of him at Halfway. Given the Pace Pressure the First 3 home well clear of the others with the 3 having run entirely different Run Styles. How much of the Gap back to 4th+ due to lack of readiness and how much lack of Size/Ability? Excessable a smaller medium type and ready 2yo. Well built, strong front and everything works well together. Leading to a straight mover with good basic pace. Add in a mature and professional attitude, aside from a touch of free running for the first 1f after a quick break, and the only runner here able to comfortably S&P on FB and run away for a clear win. Definite Conditions level but feels like an average Listed level type and will run into bigger horses with more scope. Should stay 6f fine. Risk Adjusted the opposite of Excessable in being a lengthy body, up behind and not neatly made. Strong build front. While Excessable was skipping over the undulations RA never looked balanced here. Ended up well back again by Halfway and driven along after 2f. That led to some Creep Zone progress to be a closer 4th 2f out and a solid effort from ther. 70+ type and has now finished placed in 2 races without ever having been in the race to compete. Wearing an XNB but lack of balance here so no sign of free running.. On VRev First Bombardment went too fast in the lead here and the effort in the last 2f probably ok given that. But, his habit of putting his head up and wandering around a bit in the last 2f is always going to 'look bad'. Ok 70+ and good basic pace but needs to be able to put a race togther = race settled in behind, prove he can make a forward effort off that & prove he will go past another horse at the finish (Brocklesby doubt). Plenty for O'Meara to work on. Lady Argentum ridden by former Fahey apprentice Chaloner with current A5 Garritty on Imshi's Little Bro LA's yearling video showed a small and compact body length filly but deeply made and balanced walker. Looked size limited and needing to be a fast action 5f type but with the bulk to be usable lower to mid 60s. Drawn widest here and green through the race at various points. Ok effort to plug onto a Volunteer 4th and can improve notably for having more nous. Did not seem to have grown nor changed shape and 'as advertised' in her 1yo Visuals. Sing Something the 3rd debut for Fretwell/Brown already as the owner presumably tries to improve his record from a dreadful 2013-14 record. First debut won a messy race at EDIN and the other unfit and well beaten at BATH, both with some Market support. Jk tried hard to get him involved here and the poor 5th seemed a mix of lack of size and not handling the Ramp and undulations in the last 2f. Looking smaller and less strong than the 1st 3 home and similar size to LA but without the 'little bull' block shape/strength. Even a 60? Imshi's Little Bro looking ok if raising concern over his size and a smaller one? In hindsight just a Medium Build in the picture and stronger front and lacking a bit behind. Looking a bit raw mentally & physically and running a bit free early. Soon losing ground to 2f out and similar heigh to DD and less strong. Early fade after getting unbalanced on the Ramp. A little Scope but another one with a question over whether he can get 60+. Association a similar size to ILB and running a similar race until showing a scrabbly action and losing ground quickly ins-1.5f. No Interest. Mr Lucas looking the smallest in the group and lacking range and probably a trundler. Too green off the first 2yo debut for trainer Niven since 2005. His four debuts that year were 11th, 13th & 15th (twice) in 15-18 runner field. The best any of that quartet managed at 2yo was 5th of 8. Nothing here to suggest the MO & physical type has changed in 10 years off. |