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Musselburgh 1:50, 5f Maiden (4) |
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| Horse | SP | [EST] | LB | Run | Wnr | Shp | Trainer | Dw | Hf | LBL | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Furiant | 2.75 | 30.0 | - | 1 | V | M. Johnston | 2 | 0.5 | Supp 11/8, BOk Wd, NER, JnLdr+0.5f 1Wd SBmp, SFrePv, TvOk-2f JkWait, Eff ins-2f Po, Ld-1.5f+, Po, poLt, Biggest | |||||
| 2 | Sadie Babes | 7.5 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 1 | R. A. Fahey | 3 | 2.0 | B-1 Cent, Dv Erl Resp, 2R+0.5f, SFre+1f SqzBck SBmp, Dv-2f+ po SHgROv, FdLt, Smaller | ||||||
| 3 | Copacobana | 16 | 18.4 | 2.2 | 1 | M | T. D. Easterby | 4 | 4.0 | BOk ins, NER, 2R+0.5f, Dv+1f SOutpcd-2f, Resp+1.5f, Dv-2f+, po, Resp To Ln, Smaller? | |||||
| 4 | Halsall | 1.25 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 2 | A | D. O'Meara | 5 | -0.5 | B1 RL 1Clr Immed, SHld+0.5f Jnd, Dv-2f+, po, Hdd-1.5f+, po, Whip-1f+ Unbal, Fd-0.5f+, Smallest? | |||||
| 5 | Anahorish | 4 | -2.1 | 10.7 | 1 | T. D. Barron | 1 | 5.5 | Drift 7/2, B Ok Wdst PRh-2, Dv Erl TTR InxOv, Last+0.5f SAdf, HdLOv & SUnbalOv, Dv-2f+ ModResp, HgR-1f+ Whip, Fd ins-0.5f, Too Inx | ||||||
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GF in Early am as on Decs. Watering as 8mm on Tuesday and 5mm on Wednesday. GStick reading never updated. Medium- NE Wind = approx 1/4 Tailwind from the Right. ====== On First View was to be unconvinced by this as a race aside from Furiant & parking a view on Anahorish who was too green too judge and possibly not enjoying the loose ground. As so often at recent meetings during a month with little rain the watering seems to have left a thin damp layer of turf/soil sitting on top of a dry base. Walks fine for a human but a horse's hoof just strips the wet surface off as a divot. Depending how the horse moves some might be ok and go in and hit the hard base and get a footing. Others never get balanced or soon get unbalanced to some extent as they tire. Enjoyed a Tweet earlier in the day with a weary reaction to news that NMKT's CoC Prosser has put 5mm of Water on the 2,000 Guineas track before the race. Why not leave it as GF and a surface the horses can deal with, or not. Watering producing the sort of loose surfaces regular recently just adds another Random factor to 2yo races. The Tweet included the phrase "... it's an illness.." referring to the CoC's inability to not Water. Quite. === Post VRev Furiant looking a medium one with ok build, Typical MaJo type of movement with head up and out and rolling along. Kept going ok and ok fro 70+ but full Open Maiden in a tougher race? Did not show anything here to look a better type despite the FTO win. Sadie Babes smaller medium and middling build. Tried hard but hanging right away fromt he rail and tired in the last 0.5f. Ought to be 60s but the type Fahey always wins with (in the North). Copacobana another solid debut by TDE's standards as he front loads the (vaguely) usable ones before the block of mainly Season Maidens starts. Smaller medium and less pace than the first 2 and plugging on late. Lower 60s to 64? Halsall a rotten favourite at 5/4 and vulnerable to anything with some size off an easy time in the lead on debut. Might well have been the smallest here and attended by Furiant rather than geeting a soft lead. Even given his lack of power a poor run and should have competed for 2nd. Seemed to get a bit unbalanced on the loose ground once headed then an early fade. Trainer O'Meara made his name rejuvenating older horses but if you just follow 2yo racing then he is still a bit below average operator. Strike Rate struggled above average just one season for example. The development of horses not fully sure and he can take time to fix issues. Another notable area is the number of 2yos that rate lower STO compared to FTO. This his 3rd STO in 2015 and the second (both beaten in photos FTO) to rate lower STO (both as Favs at this Course). Trainer Barron picked out in the 'Trainer 2014' review article based on how good his record has become in recent seasons and a trainer to take very seriously, including with debuts. In 2014, for example, he ranked 48th amongst all trainer for number of 2yos but as high as 23rd for winners, 30th for number of wins and 11th for Strike Rate. Anahorish reasonably expensive by a sire who has a very good First Season in 2014. Which meant Anahorish taken seriously here. Look at Barron's record and the debut wins in his last 4 high achieving seasons usually started later in May or into June and often needed the best types to win FTO. Look in more detail at his record with Debuts in the last 4 seasons and you would have achieved a Profit each season backing all of his debuts. Partly because the SPs show variability. Some FTO wins are clearly 'supported' but others are not. In 2014 his 2 x FTO wins were at 13/8f and 33/1. Pick the meaningful PATTERN out of that Market fantasists. But, you would have made a loss backing all his March-May debuts in each of those years. Feels like he can get the odd FTO win early but a slower starting stable overall. Anahorish clueless here and head to the left throughout and not handling the loose going perhaps. Probably just medium but a bit more build than SB & Copacobana. Should be 66-72. And a general reminder to take Barron seriously still despite this clunker. |