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Ascot 4:20, 5f Maiden (3) |
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| Horse | SP | [EST] | LB | Run | Wnr | Shp | Trainer | Dw | Hf | LBL | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Steady Pace | 10 | 36.0 | - | 1 | S. B. Suroor | 9 | 2.0 | BOk RL, H-1+0.5f, 2R+1f H-1, TvCmf Hf, Prg-2f+, TvCmf-2f, SwcL-1.5f+, Eff-1.5f Po, Resp-1f+ PO, Ld-1f HgR, Po ins-0.5f | ||||||
| 2 | Beaverbrook | 8 | 27.8 | 2.8 | 2 | M | M. Johnston | 7 | -0.2 | BkWL ins, Ld Erl SFre, Hld+0.5f SttlPc Stack, Po-2f, Eff-1.5f Po, Hdd-1f Po, po-0.5f, FdLn | |||||
| 3 | King Of Rooks | 2.5 | 27.1 | 3.0 | 1 | M | R. Hannon (Jnr) | 5 | 3.0 | Supp 3/1, BkWL Cent, LdgLn Erl Sfre Hld, H-2+0.5f, 2R+1f H-1 to 3R, TvCmf Hf Prg, Nose into LdgLn-2f JkWait, Eff-1.5f just Po SHgR, po-0.5f, FdLtr, Tv > Eff | |||||
| 4 | Kyllukey | 33 | 22.6 | 4.5 | 1 | C. B. Hills | 1 | 7.5 | B-1 Wdst PRh-1, H-6 Erl, Last+0.5f XB JkQt, SAdf+1f (Hauled out of Rc), SPrg-2f+, JkWait-2f, Ngl-1.5f Po HdL SHgROv, po-0.5f, EasedLt, NPIR | ||||||
| 5 | Take The Helm | 25 | 18.9 | 5.7 | 1 | B. J. Meehan | 3 | 5.5 | B-1 Wdr, H-2 Erl to 8th, JkQt+0.5f, SAdf+1f, Ngl+1.5f STTR, DvHf SResp SPrg, Po-2f ShgR, po-1f+, Fd--0.5f, WTRB = Vet said Hrs finished Lame | ||||||
| 6 | Paddy Power | 1.88 | 18.6 | 5.8 | 1 | R. A. Fahey | 4 | 1.0 | Supp 2/1, BkWL Cent, LdgLn Erl, SFre+1f H-1 to 2R, Ngl-2f+ SResp, Po ins-2f HnH HgR, po ins-1f HgR Whip, Unbal-0.5f (Bmp?), Eased SMvAwk | ||||||
| 7 | Meghwar | 14 | 16.4 | 6.5 | 2 | Roger Varian | 8 | 0.2 | BkWL ins, LdgLn Erl, SFre & HldOv, LdgPr+1f X to RL, HgR+1.5f, SOutpcd-2f, Po ins-2f, po ins-1f, Fd ins-0.5f, XNB | ||||||
| 8 | Jaadu | 5 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 2 | N | M. R. Channon | 2 | 2.2 | BkWL Wd, LdgLn Erl Hld, Fre+1f H-2 try Drop-in, SFre & HldOv, Prg Hf Wdst, Eff-2f from -1L just po HgR, Fd ins-1f | |||||
| 9 | Memyselfie | 66 | -14.2 | 15.1 | 2 | D. Shaw | 6 | 1.7 | B-1 Cent PBmp-1, Resp Erl, Fre+0.5f Pull to 2R+1f Hld, FFH for 1f, Unbal-2f+ Whip, ModResp-2f, Unbal ins-2f LsGrnd, Adf-1f | ||||||
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GF in Early AM from G on Decs with ASCT missing most of the rain on Fri. GStick at 8.5 when it was 8.3 in early AM on Friday and the ground officially G. 0.2 make that difference? Time types suggesting Going was actually close to GF on Friday. Stiff+ Westerly Wind = 3/4+ Headwind from the Right. === Pre Race === Fahey in his SLife piece = "Our final runner at Ascot is Paddy Power. He’s a two-year-old we like and his work has been good ahead of the Maiden Stakes. The thing with your better two-year-olds is they always do everything so easily at home and I only hope he’s not too green when push comes to shove and shows what he can do.". The 'Visuals' for Paddy Power started with a grainy 15 secs Clip Fahey tweeted on 10th January and written about in the 'Visuals AND Numbers'. Including pondering over why Fahey bothered with the tweet. On April 2nd he then tweeted a short Vine Video of a smaller, chunky Chestnut pulling clear of other 2yos in an uphill work. In the ruck behind appear to be winning FTO 2yos Gallipoli & Gin In The Inn. The stars aligning here to some extent. PP retained expensively at the sale and passed on to be named 'Paddy Power' once Fahey knew he was useful. Using the circumstantial route of not naming a horse after the primary name of your business, sentimental reasons (eg Frankel) etc if it is a rabbit. Even if it is one who's Career Highlight will be winning a Northern Maiden in a photo. PP a a smaller 'Piv' but chunky and ready and moves ok. The sort that can catch a PRev person who likes bigger ones out over the years. But the long term call to prefer a bigger one that moves efficiently still correct. But, everyone seems to know PP is useful so the SP is likely to be an overbet one and perhaps value elsewhere? Yearling Video for King Of Rooks a mixed story. A Hannon debut in this sort of race ought to be a solid OR80s type of some sort. KOR looking raw and physically a bit immature in the video. Still up behind and looking weaker front and neck. On the plus side he shows ok bulk behind which might develop into good power and also moves balanced. Which includes a notable overstep of the forleg placement points by the hindlegs as they come through (if you like that sort of thing). To be solid 80s you feel he needs to have developed well from his 1yo presentation. Check how he has changed. KOR looking about medium height in the Video but a little hard to judge partly because he is being led by an unusually tall guy for a stable worker. Kyllukey by a bulky sprinter out of a Dam whom Darley bred but got rid of after she had showed she was too slow to win over 12f. Interesting Yearling Video and looking a different physical type to KOR, for example, and much more complete and developed. A shorter, IP bodied one. Deep and bulky and strongly built. Already leveled up behind and a blanced and purposeful walk and very different to the underdeveloped and sloppy KOR as a 1yo. A niggle that he is round and a bit narrow hipped behind and not a 'full sprinter' build and seup all through. Unlikely to have grown much and perhaps look a smaller medium one in the field. But, perhaps a plus he starts at 5f quite early and is the strong, mature early sprinter he could be looking at the Video. [Took a few points off the [Prf] with Frank aboard]. === 1st View === Why the Slow Time?? Watching Spencer haul Kyllukey to sit well last and ignoring the actual pace entirely brings a darkening of the mood. This feels like watching a has-been Music Hall artist working through the same, tired 'Act' be has been performing forever, without change. Like television was never invented and the playing field changed. Dispiriting to watch. Probably more worthwhile watching that bloke who's act used to be hitting himself over the head with a metal Tea Tray while singing 'Mule Train' (Bob Blackman, or 'Bob the Tray' to look it up). Or perhaps, like Sandy Powell, Frank should have a sign visible while working through his 'Act' saying "I am a jockey". As Sandy would say - ".. in case anyone turned up late and wondered what the Hell was going on.. ". === Post VRev === Puzzlement over the time partly because of the mismatch between the Slow Overall Time and the Shape of the Halfway to Final Positions. At the line the Leader from early on - Beaverbrook - embedded amongst 4 x relative Closers. Which reads like a stronger Pace. After the Full VRev then it was an Average Pace, at most, and the 4 horses that finished in the last 4 places all having 'issues'. Worth noting that this is a race which usually produces a number of Opem Maiden winners and usually 1-2 each year who are 85+. But, it has not produced a winner at 2yo above Conditions level in the last 3 years. A number of the field often seemed to be 'Day Out' types and that can include ones for major owners and a trainer making sure they have a runner to watch with the 'one they have ready' rather than targetting it with the best one(s). At the Top level this field perhaps typical of the last 3 years, possibly a bit lighter. As soon as you write, as in the LING result 54 before this race was run, that Godolphin early to earlyish 5f debuts can be ignored the Law of Sod pops up and grants them a 10/1 winner. A few points on that starting with they are still unprofitable as a set over any reasonable period. The second point is that if they are going to have an early 5f debut then Suroor more likely to provide it. His examples often placed and therefore might fall into a win somewhere. Appleby's debuts often look like they are at the First Day of Rehearsals. Another point would be the dont-back-early-5fs partly rests on the SPs being relatively short and therefore poor value overall. Suroor only had 5 of 47 x 2yo debuts in 2014 that started at 10/1 or longer. 4 were inplaced and 1 was second at RDCR at 16/1 in late season. There is a point where the Market reacting and pushing some Godolphin debuts out will decrease the long term losses and maybe even flip over into Profits. Suroor's record since 2002 with 5f debuts until 2014 was 4 wins from 25 and an ROI of -0.25. His 2 5f Debuts on the Day changed that record to 5 from 27 and an ROI up to +0.1. Into Profit. But non-one really bets that way. A final point you might suggest is that ASCT debuts are more likely to be better ones. When Crisford was the Boss he often said they tried to start the better juveniles at the best tracks (NMKT/J, ASCT, etc). Look at Suroor's record before this at ASCT & he was 2 from 8 and a profit with the SPs at 4/1 & 15/2 (his Median was 9/2 in 2014). Steady Pace not a heavy sprinter type of the sire and longer & lighter. Strong enough and well balanced. Made a solid effort to get to the lead and pull clear but without showing any 'different' zip. Ok for conditions level but need to show more to compete to win above that. Beaverbrook another MaJo 'Lost Debut' who is more knowing STO and able to lead the field. Seemed to get a soft time in the lead and set a standard. Smaller and strongly built in this field. &5-80 and probably better one(s) behind for various reasons. Typical Hannon FTO here would be OR80s without being one of his better ones. His last 4 runners in the race (2012-14) all 80+ with two winning Conditions events. King Of Rooks looking middling sort in the range he starts in this race. Ok size and strength without being a powerhouse nor looking better class. OR85s in nurseries? Held back by Hughes when running too free early but then progressing comfortably enough in the CZ. Hanging right and not finding as much effort as Hughes expected in the last 1.5f, Any disadvanatge racing Centre? Why wasn't there a Stewards' Enquiry into Hills and Spencer with regards to how Kyllukey was ridden? 'Schooling in Public' is not allowed. Are they both 'Too Big to Fail' so never get asked the question? Kullukey not running freely yet hauled to last and adrift off the back of the group. Ugly and pathetic to watch. Spencer not asking him to make a forward effort until well into the 4th furlong. Head to the Left and hanging right a bit and HnH to the line. If you want to do a 'Work Gallop' with him, do it on the Lambourn Gallops. Kullukey still looking a likeable chunky sprinter in PRev and ok 85+ and a pity we did not see enough of him in this race to judge what he can do more fully. Meehan debuts at ASCT can be especially chosen and be better ones but Take The Helm untypical having been rerouted from BATH earlier in the week. Expensive one of his sire at £33k and a smaller one but strongly built front. Jk busy from early on and finished lame. Seems ok for 75ish. What to make of the Paddy Power saga? Many years of listening to "this thing's a machine.." type hype and seeing them fail to live up to it means a certain suspicion anyway. A personal high of falling for the hype being to travel a long way to see Killer Instinct finish 4th on his career/3yo debut on the way to proving he was just an ok one and not superior to Dancing Brave (or whoever). In the case of PP we do have some visual evidence of what the 'catching pigeons' actually looks like on the gallops. PP a smaller one by Pivotal but strong, moves ok and makes the best of the range he has and a full-on trier. But, Fahey still going on relative clues of going better than some of the others he has run and not something more formal like timed 4f trials. As usual the hype took the price to a non value level anyway. As Fahey says in his quote above he doesn't know how they will go FTO and just knows they a ok compared to some of his others. He also has a moderate to poor record in his 'Sporting Life' pieces of knowing which are the good ones and which will win. The profitability of backing his 2nd strings overall hinting at his lack of knowledge and the Market thinking he knows more. If you want a good recent example look up the career of Warcrown who started 2/1 for Glorious Goodwood maiden and was supposed to be a worldbeater. Paddy Power seemingly not owned by 'Paddy Power' but in new black and white colours on the day. As expected, a bit underwhelming in PRev given the Hype and would get a 70s marking if you could park-the-hype (very difficult). A smaller strong 'Piv'. Err, Yes. Seemed to have some minor excuses for failing to pick up much in the last 2f. Had run a bit free to halfway, hanging right in Centre track (as most of them seemed to) in the last 2f then getting a bump 0.5f out (already going backwards though). Stick him as 75-80 and wait for the next work video (presumably Fahey will go quiet about PP now) and see whether he ever gets to value in a lesser race. Meghwar a smaller and less powerful one in this group. Wearing an XNB and did run too freely. But a lesser effort and lookign perhaps lower 70s. Jaadu breaking better than debut then running a bit too freely again. But, not enough to explain the pooer effort in the last 2f. Racing widest perhaps an issue but has been unable to put a race together yet and show a real 2f effort at the end of the race. Downgrade a bit for relative Size in PRev here but should be 80+ Memyselfie a 2yo with trainer Shaw, also ran. More knowing than debut although still going funny in the last 1f+ having run a bit too free. No interest given the trainer. |