BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2015 Season Race Result
	Race 826 : Wed, September 30th Nottingham 2:10, 8.3f Maiden (Fillies') (5), "Div I"
2015 Season Home 2015 Results	[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level, Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30. Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type. Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish. GOING TIME RcPc Video VP G 105.89 [Compare] 1 Link None

SUMMARY

Gd in early am as at Decs. GStick broken - first meeting for 6 weeks and they get the GStick repaired this week. Outer HS in use. Unusual Easterly wind, 12 to 15mph with higher speed gusts, close to a direct Tailwind in the HS. === Post Race === Picture of position just inside the last 3f. Andastra in a clear lead and finishing the race of well despite running a bit too freely. Norse Magic (#5) in purple making ground to finish a clear second. Fast Time assisted by the Tailwind in the HS and much faster than Div II of the maiden. Andastra a Classic Example of a a 'Trainer Niche' and the way they target certain times of the year. Put a marker on a particular time of the year and make the training schedule work backwards from there. For many years Beckett has been introducing good staying fillies either very late in September or very early October. They usually debut over 8f and either win FTO or go close and win STO. These types have good prospects to be better types and be good at 3yo. In 2014 he didn't seem to have a filly of that type but had a colt win in the same manner. Where was Simple Verse as a 2yo? Older Gp2 winner Secret Gesture mostly fitted the model in 2012 with a 7f debut in early Oct. Older Group winner Cubanita was the 2011 example and 3yo Listed winner Ceilidh House in 2010. Oaks winner Sea Here going back further, and so it goes on. Andastra a swift break and 1L clear immediately and, in theory, got a Soft Lead. But, she was always going a bit too hard and held by the jockey. But, as the final time suggests, she set a stiff pace and was 3-4L clear inside the last 3f with her ears still pricked. Only Norse Magic able to raise an effort to chase. Interesting to see how high Andastra can go as a 3yo. Norse Magic another confirmation of the strength and quality of the Ballydoyle maiden at NMKJ. Purple Magic a volunteer 3rd but her last work video suggested she was usable at 65+, say. She worked with Duchy & Forecaster in her latest Work Video and went at least as well as the other pair. That pair both made presentable debuts then regressed STO. See how the PMagic rating here stands up NTO. The more you think about trainer Bell the more the niggle about accepting a kind of underdog mediocrity sets in. Like an upmarket version of Bill Turner and his run-everything-in-sellers mindset. Sproting Life Preview for the race a Classic bit of empty Pundit Lite babble to use somewhere = "Norse Magic was well beaten at Newmarket last time but in a much tougher contest behind subsequent Group 2 winner Ballydoyle. She is still preferred to Scarlet Pimpernel of those with experience but several of the newcomers are worth a second glance. Purple Magic and Andastra are related to winners and the 375,000gns Sea The Stars filly Statuesque is a half-sister to a Group 2 winner in Germany. But ROCKSAVAGE may prove good enough as she counts Group 1 winners and former stablemates Nathanial, Playful Act and Great Heavens among ten winning relatives and John Gosden's filly gets the vote to make a winning start." Some sort of 'Tipping by Pedigree', misread and misunderstood pedigree even within the fatal limitations of that approach. Just Grisly. The BBC website's Previews of Premier League games are exact analogues of this sort of piffle. If you look at any of them and ask (a) What have they written that told you anything you didn't know? (no better than 'gossip' and (b) What evidence, say Data or numerical analysis, have they brought in to substantiate their summary? = the answer will be NONE and NONE. You'd be better off devising your own simple system to test.

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