British 2yo Racing - Trainer Dashbaord Explanation

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British 2yo Racing - Trainer Dashboard Explanation

The site has individual pages for each trainer for the 2006 season to record their 2yos performances. The trainers which had 2yo runners in the 2005 season have a 'Dashboard' included which provides information about their 2005 Season performance. The following table is an example for a steady, unexceptional and notional trainer - one J. Average.

J. AVERAGE Rnrs 20 Wnrs 4 Win% 6.5% FTO% 5.0% WpW 1.0

FTO Rating Av: 43.2 50+: 5 60+: 2 70+: 1 80+: 0

F-STO Change > 10 (151) < 4 (75) = 1 Av > 15.1

3-4TO Nursery > 3 (18) < 0 (0) = 0 Av > 6.0

3-4TO Other > 2 (20) < 1 (21) = 0 Av > 10.0

Peak Runs 1st 4 2nd 7 3rd 3 4th 2 5th 0 6th 0

Run Style FTO F 1 P 0 T 8 M 6 B 4 Af 1

Run Style STO F 4 P 3 T 7 M 1 B 1 Af 0

FTO Order W-NW 1-3: 2 4-6: 1 7-10: 1 11-15: 0

FTO Order W-NW 16-20: 0 21-30: - 31-50: - 51+: -

Sales Price 5k: 3 (1) 10k: 5 (1) 20k: 4 (2) 40k: (-)

Sales Price 60k: 2 (0) 100k: (-) >100k (-) OB: 4 (0)

Why is it termed a Dashboard? Because that is where information is displayed about a 'black box' system, such as the engine in a car, to tell you how it is performing. In this case the black box is a trainer's string of 2yo horses and the information displayed is related to how the trainer handles this group. In analysing 2yo races it is a big advantage to have an understanding of what the trainer's plans and strategies are, if they have them.

The dashboard displays a lot of information in a compact form which requires some explanation. The remainder of this document describes the dashboard format and also some of the inferences that can be drawn.

DASHBOARD DISPLAY EXPLANATION

General Notes

The dashboard provides new information types and covers the 2005 season.

The "2002-2005 Trainers" section on the site gives other details about the trainer's performance. There is a link to the appropriate page from the individual trainer 2006 page.

Title Line

The line beginning with the trainer's name gives information about the number of runners ("Rnrs") & winners ("Wnrs") the stable had in 2005.

The other cells are the strike rate ("Win %") in terms of wins to runs, the debut strike rate ("FTO %") and the wins per winner ("WpW")

The stable's strike rate should be compared to an overall wins to runs of 9.4% across all 2yos.

The debut strike rate can be compared to the stable's general strike rate as an indicator of how ready the 2yos are FTO and whether the trainer targets debut wins. Note that around 6% of all 2yos win on debut.

A wins per winner level of 1.0 indicates each winner only won one race - is this because the trainer lacks a plan to gain second wins? Lacks the quality of horses?

FTO Rating

FTO = first time out and deals with debut runs. The "Av:" figure is the average B2yoR rating achieved by all the stable runners on their debut. In general the higher the figure the more ready the stable's 2yos are on debut although the figure is also dependent upon 2yo string quality.

Average ratings above 60 are rare and those between 50-60 account for only around 20 of the overall population of 316 trainers. Values between 30-49 are a normal level.

The next four values marked "50+:" through to "80+:" denote the number of individual 2yos which rated above that level and below the next one. For example, a figure 5 (as in the J. Average example above) following "50+:" would indicate 5 of the stable's 2yo rated between 50-59. These figures are interesting in a number of contexts, consider the performance levels required to win different types of races at different courses for example.

F-STO Change

Refers to the change in performance level from debut to the second run (STO). An individual horse can show a better or worse rating on their second run or may run to exactly the same level.

The first three figures in the line are the number of 2yos which showed better STO ratings (">"), worse ratings ("<") or the same level ("="). The figures in brackets are the total change in ratings of the 2yos in the groupings.

The fourth and final cell on the line is the average improvement in rating by those 2yos that improved only, i.e. it is not across all the trainer's 2yos. Note that the improvement shown could be from a very low base.

The ratings for average improvement are mostly in the range of +10 to +20 and a trainer can be judged against that. Another important consideration is the number of 2yos that show worse performances on their second run. This links directly to how consistently a trainer progresses his 2yos careers.

3-4TO Nursery
& 3-4TO Other

The information presented on these two lines is in the same format as that for "F-STO Change" as described above.

The difference is that these lines deal with changes in performance levels by the stables 2yos from their third (3TO) to fourth (4TO) runs. The main reason for choosing this data to present is to see whether the trainer shows any evidence of targetting improved performances for horses on their first run in handicaps (i.e. the 2yo Nursery race).

Therefore the "3-4TO Nursery" line deals with performance change for 2yos that ran in their first nursery 4TO. The "3-4TO Other" deals with the stable's horses that ran in any race type other than a nursery on the fourth run.

Peak Runs

A 'peak run' for a 2yo is the outing on which they achieved their best performance rating during the season.

The six figures labelled "1st", "2nd" through to "6th" relate to the first to the sixth outings. The figures next to them are the number of the trainer's 2yos that showed their best form on that outing.

Note that the figures do not include 2yos that only ran once. Also, some 2yos did show better form after their 6th runs but these are a relatively small proportion (see related article). Therefore, the figures in the line will not necessarily add up to the same total as the number of stable 2yo runners.

Run Style FTO
& Run Style STO

'Run Style' refers to how a 2yo is positioned in a race and whether any effort is made to assist with the pacemaking.

The 6 parts of the line - F (front run), P (press), T (track), M (midfield), B (behind), Adrift (off the back) - refer to the six main types of run style assigned by B2yoR in 2005. These are described further in the "Race Note Abbreviations" document.

The figures in the line are the number of the trainer's 2yos that showed that run style on their debuts (FTO) and second runs (STO).

It is suggested you study a number of different trainers to get a feel for the differences that a single trainer will show for FTO and STO runners. It is also instructive to compare different trainers and you should see a number of common types of strategy.

Should you wish to investigate how well the different run styles served the 2yos of a particular trainer you can go to the 2005 trainer page to find the information.

FTO Order
W-NW

If we consider all of a trainer's 2yos in a season and put their debut runs into date order then we can assign each 2yo a number from 1 upwards depending upon how early their debut was. An interesting question is then where in that order do the trainer's winners in the season come? Are they all bunched in the earliest debuts? Spread evenly through the season? etc.

"W-NW" is an abbreviation for Winners & Non-winners and refers to breaking down an identified group into those that were winners in the season and those that were not. In this section the 2yos are grouped by order of debut (by date) and therefore "1-3" are the first to third 2yos in the list, "4-6" are the fourth to sixth and so on through to "51+" for the small set of trainers with more than fifty 2yos runners in a season.

The figures on the two lines are the number of winners in that group of 2yos. Using the "J. Average" table above as an example, two of his first three debuts were winners, one of his three fourth to sixth debuts won and also one of his four seventh to tenth horses. None of the last ten 2yos to make their debuts were winners in the season as show by the "0" in the "11-15" & "16-20" cells. The remaining cells in the lines have dashes in because this trainer only had twenty runners in total.

The distribution that shows up for a trainer can be very useful in identifying what type of 2yo an individual is likely to be just by when it makes a debut. It is also quite common to find trainers who do not introduce a subsequent winner in their last batch (often quite large) of 2yo runners. It is clearly an advantage to be able to discount a whole group of 2yos because they are very unlikely to have any 2yo potential.

In this area it is also useful to review a trainer's "W-NW by month of debut" table in their 2002-2005 page which is obviously related. It is also advisable to consider how factors such as quality of the 2yos (dealt with in the next line here), suitability of horses to sprint & 7f+ race distances affect the distribution of winners to non-winners.

Sales Price

The last two lines in the dashboard split the trainer's 2yos into groups by how much they cost at the sales (in guineas) or if they were bred by their owners ("OB"). A number of 2yos may not have been assigned to either category for a trainer so the figures may not always add up to the same total as the number of 2yo runners for the trainer.

The group 'titles' on the two lines refer to the highest sales price included in that group. Therefore "5k:" refers to all sales prices from the minimum allowed (approximately 600gns) up to 5,000gns. The next group title - "10k:" - then refers to all sales prices from 5,001gns up to 10,000gns and so forth.

The main figure next to the titles is the number of the trainer's 2yos that fit into that group. The second figure in brackets is the number of that group which won during the season.

The figures are useful for assessing the strength of a stable and how reliant it is on owner breeders. It is also informative to see whether the trainer gets winners with 2yos from all quality levels. For example, it is quite common for a trainer not to get a win with relatively expensive 2yos for the stable. The probable reason is that they go easy with the expensive horse because they do not want to make a mess of the opportunity by pressing too hard at 2yo.

General Notes	The dashboard provides new information types and covers the 2005 season. The "2002-2005 Trainers" section on the site gives other details about the trainer's performance. There is a link to the appropriate page from the individual trainer 2006 page.
Title Line	The line beginning with the trainer's name gives information about the number of runners ("Rnrs") & winners ("Wnrs") the stable had in 2005. The other cells are the strike rate ("Win %") in terms of wins to runs, the debut strike rate ("FTO %") and the wins per winner ("WpW") The stable's strike rate should be compared to an overall wins to runs of 9.4% across all 2yos. The debut strike rate can be compared to the stable's general strike rate as an indicator of how ready the 2yos are FTO and whether the trainer targets debut wins. Note that around 6% of all 2yos win on debut. A wins per winner level of 1.0 indicates each winner only won one race - is this because the trainer lacks a plan to gain second wins? Lacks the quality of horses?
FTO Rating	FTO = first time out and deals with debut runs. The "Av:" figure is the average B2yoR rating achieved by all the stable runners on their debut. In general the higher the figure the more ready the stable's 2yos are on debut although the figure is also dependent upon 2yo string quality. Average ratings above 60 are rare and those between 50-60 account for only around 20 of the overall population of 316 trainers. Values between 30-49 are a normal level. The next four values marked "50+:" through to "80+:" denote the number of individual 2yos which rated above that level and below the next one. For example, a figure 5 (as in the J. Average example above) following "50+:" would indicate 5 of the stable's 2yo rated between 50-59. These figures are interesting in a number of contexts, consider the performance levels required to win different types of races at different courses for example.
F-STO Change	Refers to the change in performance level from debut to the second run (STO). An individual horse can show a better or worse rating on their second run or may run to exactly the same level. The first three figures in the line are the number of 2yos which showed better STO ratings (">"), worse ratings ("<") or the same level ("="). The figures in brackets are the total change in ratings of the 2yos in the groupings. The fourth and final cell on the line is the average improvement in rating by those 2yos that improved only, i.e. it is not across all the trainer's 2yos. Note that the improvement shown could be from a very low base. The ratings for average improvement are mostly in the range of +10 to +20 and a trainer can be judged against that. Another important consideration is the number of 2yos that show worse performances on their second run. This links directly to how consistently a trainer progresses his 2yos careers.
3-4TO Nursery & 3-4TO Other	The information presented on these two lines is in the same format as that for "F-STO Change" as described above. The difference is that these lines deal with changes in performance levels by the stables 2yos from their third (3TO) to fourth (4TO) runs. The main reason for choosing this data to present is to see whether the trainer shows any evidence of targetting improved performances for horses on their first run in handicaps (i.e. the 2yo Nursery race). Therefore the "3-4TO Nursery" line deals with performance change for 2yos that ran in their first nursery 4TO. The "3-4TO Other" deals with the stable's horses that ran in any race type other than a nursery on the fourth run.
Peak Runs	A 'peak run' for a 2yo is the outing on which they achieved their best performance rating during the season. The six figures labelled "1st", "2nd" through to "6th" relate to the first to the sixth outings. The figures next to them are the number of the trainer's 2yos that showed their best form on that outing. Note that the figures do not include 2yos that only ran once. Also, some 2yos did show better form after their 6th runs but these are a relatively small proportion (see related article). Therefore, the figures in the line will not necessarily add up to the same total as the number of stable 2yo runners.
Run Style FTO & Run Style STO	'Run Style' refers to how a 2yo is positioned in a race and whether any effort is made to assist with the pacemaking. The 6 parts of the line - F (front run), P (press), T (track), M (midfield), B (behind), Adrift (off the back) - refer to the six main types of run style assigned by B2yoR in 2005. These are described further in the "Race Note Abbreviations" document. The figures in the line are the number of the trainer's 2yos that showed that run style on their debuts (FTO) and second runs (STO). It is suggested you study a number of different trainers to get a feel for the differences that a single trainer will show for FTO and STO runners. It is also instructive to compare different trainers and you should see a number of common types of strategy. Should you wish to investigate how well the different run styles served the 2yos of a particular trainer you can go to the 2005 trainer page to find the information.
FTO Order W-NW	If we consider all of a trainer's 2yos in a season and put their debut runs into date order then we can assign each 2yo a number from 1 upwards depending upon how early their debut was. An interesting question is then where in that order do the trainer's winners in the season come? Are they all bunched in the earliest debuts? Spread evenly through the season? etc. "W-NW" is an abbreviation for Winners & Non-winners and refers to breaking down an identified group into those that were winners in the season and those that were not. In this section the 2yos are grouped by order of debut (by date) and therefore "1-3" are the first to third 2yos in the list, "4-6" are the fourth to sixth and so on through to "51+" for the small set of trainers with more than fifty 2yos runners in a season. The figures on the two lines are the number of winners in that group of 2yos. Using the "J. Average" table above as an example, two of his first three debuts were winners, one of his three fourth to sixth debuts won and also one of his four seventh to tenth horses. None of the last ten 2yos to make their debuts were winners in the season as show by the "0" in the "11-15" & "16-20" cells. The remaining cells in the lines have dashes in because this trainer only had twenty runners in total. The distribution that shows up for a trainer can be very useful in identifying what type of 2yo an individual is likely to be just by when it makes a debut. It is also quite common to find trainers who do not introduce a subsequent winner in their last batch (often quite large) of 2yo runners. It is clearly an advantage to be able to discount a whole group of 2yos because they are very unlikely to have any 2yo potential. In this area it is also useful to review a trainer's "W-NW by month of debut" table in their 2002-2005 page which is obviously related. It is also advisable to consider how factors such as quality of the 2yos (dealt with in the next line here), suitability of horses to sprint & 7f+ race distances affect the distribution of winners to non-winners.
Sales Price	The last two lines in the dashboard split the trainer's 2yos into groups by how much they cost at the sales (in guineas) or if they were bred by their owners ("OB"). A number of 2yos may not have been assigned to either category for a trainer so the figures may not always add up to the same total as the number of 2yo runners for the trainer. The group 'titles' on the two lines refer to the highest sales price included in that group. Therefore "5k:" refers to all sales prices from the minimum allowed (approximately 600gns) up to 5,000gns. The next group title - "10k:" - then refers to all sales prices from 5,001gns up to 10,000gns and so forth. The main figure next to the titles is the number of the trainer's 2yos that fit into that group. The second figure in brackets is the number of that group which won during the season. The figures are useful for assessing the strength of a stable and how reliant it is on owner breeders. It is also informative to see whether the trainer gets winners with 2yos from all quality levels. For example, it is quite common for a trainer not to get a win with relatively expensive 2yos for the stable. The probable reason is that they go easy with the expensive horse because they do not want to make a mess of the opportunity by pressing too hard at 2yo.