BRITISH 2yo RACING

Hugh Taylor Selections - Study Data 1




  • This Page is contains the background data to the website article which analyses Hugh Taylor's (HT) daily selections. Below, in alphabetical order, are table which cover the basic details of each of his selections during the calendar year that the Study ran for. The text which HT supplied with each selection is in the cream coloured field. Below that is a broad ranging 'Notes' field which records items which the Study author noted relating to each selection. The 'Notes' are not in any set format but more of a open-ended area to record any points, ideas, and so on.
  • The document is termed 'Data 1' because the table for each selection only contains the basic information. Specifically, it does not include the Angle/Edge codings given to each selection during the Study, nor does it include the final result of the race and the profit or loss involved.
  • There will be a later 'Data 2' page which will include all of the codes and results. The reason for not including it when the article was first published was to avoid influencing other people's judgement if they wanted to code and check the Study analysis. See the notes in Section 8. of the article about the availability of this full data and ideas for checking the data further.


DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/01/2013 Master Of The Sea DaviesNAT DaviesST WINC 22 SHV

HT Selection Text:-

"MASTER OF THE SEA has looked a different horse since going handicapping following a break this winter, and with conditions again set to be in his favour he should take plenty of stopping in his hat-trick bid at Wincanton today (1.50). He has revelled in the mud on his last two starts, and although he has been bumped up 15lb for his latest win at Aintree, he did look a long way ahead of the handicapper that day, at least when the ground is testing. The time at Aintree was around 9 seconds quicker than that recorded in the class 2 handicap on the same card, and although the pace of the latter was around five or six seconds slower to three out, the front two in Master Of the Sea's race still finished much faster than those in the class 2 race (the winner of that race, Bear's Affair, who wasn't disgraced off a mark of 152 in the Lanzarote Hurdle, was eased down, but the remainder were all out behind him). The form of Master Of the Sea's run has been franked by the second and third; runner-up Bathwick Brave pulled a long way clear with the winner next time on similar ground off a 9lb higher mark, whilst third-placed Powerful Ambition was also effectively 9lb higher when a close second next time. The concern might be the return to a right-handed track, as Master Of The Sea appeared to want to hang left round the bends when winning at Hereford on his previous start, but it will still be disappointing if he is unable to maintain his progress here. 1pt win MASTER OF THE SEA (9-2 Stan James*, 4-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/01/2013 Bertie Blu Boy L. Williamson EavesT WTON 7.1 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"On a distinctly unappealing dayís racing BERTIE BLU BOY has an obvious chance in the 7f handicap at Wolverhampton (7.00). Heís favourite this morning, but I thought heíd be even shorter than he is having pulled well clear with another well-handicapped horse in Kyllachykov over the extended mile here last time, the time figure suggesting both horses are well ahead of their respective marks. The drop back to the extended 7f trip here is a concern, but he was clear at the furlong pole when third over 1m at Lingfield on his penultimate start and he will presumably be ridden prominently from stall 2 here (horse in stall 1 is a non-runner). I thought heíd be about a 7-4 chance here so he looks fair value at his current odds. 1pt win BERTIE BLU BOY (5-2 bet365, Betfred, Coral, Paddy Power, William Hill*) "


Notes:-
*MEETING ABANDONED due to Snow



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/01/2013 Toga Tiger J. R. Gask SilvaRD3 KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"TOGA TIGER took a long time to hit form for Jeremy Gask, but he rattled off a hat-trick at Brighton last year having tumbled in the weights, and showed that his resurgence wasn't over on his return at Wolverhampton on Tuesday when winning over 7f. That win was all the more meritorious because it came over a trip (7f) that looks short of his best; he travelled best, but found trouble in running and had to be switched, doing really well to get up on the line. This is a tougher race and there is always the danger it will come too soon turned out just four days after his reappearance, but the return to 1m looks sure to suit, is up only 2lb here and he has plenty of scope in handicapping terms still (rated 89 as a 2yo). 1pt win TOGA TIGER (9-2 general - use *BOG firms ) "


Notes:-
[Ran T2 in slow race then hung left in str and took time to get going but responded well last 0.5f+ & scrape home in 3-way photo. Showed real tenacity and staying on over slowly run 8f. Trainer Gask said post-race horse has 'issues' but they manage them.] ] 100/30 by 10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/01/2013 Valdaw M. Murphy AhernE KTNA 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 6f handicap (4.35) VALDAW looks overpriced to me despite the fact that he's favourite and still a maiden. I thought he'd be around a 6-4 chance on the strength of some fine recent efforts, especially his latest run when he pulled well clear of the remainder with the progressive Sandy Lane despite the fact that the pace wasn't strong. He also shaped well when third behind another progressive horse in Temple Road over today's course and distance two outings ago, again giving the impression a stronger gallop would have suited. He has changed stables since his last run but that's not much of a concern given the short timespan since his last run and in any case his new trainer Mike Murphy does well with newly-acquired horses; providing he gets a decent gallop, which should be the case, Valdaw is likely to be hard to beat from his good draw here. The possible fly in the ointment is Venetia's Dream in the first-time headgear back over the trip which produced her one good run , though it may be she has just become disappointing. 1pt win VALDAW (5-2 general - use *BOG firms ) "


Notes:-
[Note that KTNA the only meeting on because of snow = limits scope for selections. ][ 13/8 by soon after 10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/01/2013 Scamperdale B. P. J. Baugh HarrinK WTON 9.5 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Itís no surprise to see Lean On Pete a strong favourite for the extended 1m1f handicap at Wolverhampton today (5.35), as he was impressive when cutting down his rivals last time having found himself short of room turning for home. Most of his formlines are very strong and if he gets the run of the race heíll be hard to beat, but at bigger prices the veteran SCAMPERDALE has dropped to a handy mark and looks interesting after returning to form on his latest start. That run came in the other division of the C&D handicap won by Lean On Pete last time, and although the time was much quicker in the latterís race, he was suited by being held up off the strong pace (first division was run over two and a half seconds faster to the 2df pole than the second division), whereas Scamperdale also tried to come from last place, but in a much more slowly-run event. He did extremely well to run the progressive Berlusca so close in the end, and with his stable showing clear signs of a return to form, he looks worth chancing with his mark having fallen 29lb in the last 16 months. 1pt win SCAMPERDALE (9-1 general) "


Notes:-
[Drifted from 8/1 on course]



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/01/2013 Rapid Heat Lad R. Hollinshead TudhopeD WTON 13.9 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Itís a bit surprising that RAPID HEAT LAD (Wolverhampton 3.05) hasnít been tried on Polytrack since winning at Lingfield in extremely impressive style last February. The opposition that day was modest, but he won in emphatic style, eased down in what was a fair time for a 3yo at that stage of his career. There has been a fair bit of water under the bridge since then, as he couldnít build on that run back on turf and has subsequently had three spins over hurdles (won in first-time cheekpieces), and his all-weather mark is 12lb higher here, but he remains unexposed at this sort of trip on Polytrack and wonít lack for assistance from the saddle with Danny Tudhope booked (first ride for the yard). 1pt win RAPID HEAT LAD (11-1 bet365, 10-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/01/2013 Solfilia H. Morrison DaviesWT5 LNGA 12 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"SOLFILIA (Lingfield 1.20) is another horse whose problem has been settling during the early stages of her races, but she gives the impression the ability is there to figure off her current mark, and with todayís line-up including Activate, who made all three outings ago, went off very fast two outings ago and now reverts to 1m4f having raced over 2m last time, there might be a decent pace to enable her to settle. Solfilia shaped well considering how hard she pulled last time at Kempton, last off the bridle by some way and looking dangerous when switched right 2f out, before her earlier exertions took their toll. She had been out of her depth in two Listed races prior to that, but her previous effort when runner-up to Layali Dubai (won both subsequent starts) reads well, and if she settles better here she could cause a minor surprise, although this does look a tough race with several in-form horses. 1pt win SOLFILIA (10-1 Stan James, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
[As part of Interim Review. Does this Read more like Compet off OR with Supports rather than a screaming BTOR?]



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/01/2013 Darkest Night H. Morrison DaviesWT5 LNGA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"DARKEST NIGHT looks quite exposed on the face of it, but he gives the impression he is steadily improving and can go well in the 1m handicap at Lingfield today (3.00). He was swamped by Flying Tempo in the closing stages last time, but he travelled better than that rival for most of the race and appeared to be still in front of the eventual winner until about 100 yards from the line, with Flying Tempo possibly at an advantage making his challenge wide towards the stands side. Over todayís bare 1m, as opposed to the 1m141y Wolverhampton distance, Darkest Night might be able to reverse the form (also 5lb better off here); he appeared to settle better last time than had sometimes been the case in his previous races, which may be the key to him, and this should be run at an honest pace with yesterdayís all-the-way winner and Dream About You, who has made the running on his last three starts, in the race. 1pt win DARKEST NIGHT (6-1 Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James*) "


Notes:-
[Flying Tempo joint 2/1f & 3rd] [Compet Off OR with Supports?]



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
23/01/2013 Strategic Action L. C. Jewell HavlinR KTNA 8 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"STRATEGIC ACTION has run with credit in two races that were quite warm for the grade on his last two starts and should go well in the 1m handicap at Kempton this evening (6.00). A winner over 6f in August, he looks to have been suited by stepping up in trip recently, but possibly found 1m2f stretching his stamina last time, travelling well but fading into fourth in the straight. He was still three lengths clear of the fifth in a race run in a reasonable time for the grade, and his previous effort when a staying-on sixth over a mile at the same course has worked out very well. 1pt win STRATEGIC ACTION (6-1 Coral, 5-1 Betfred, Paddy Power, Stan James*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/01/2013 Vermeyen G. Deacon BakerG KTNA 7 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"VERMEYEN has given the impression there might be more to come in time on his two starts since he was handicapped and might be able to find the required improvement in the 7f handicap at Kempton today (5.05). He pulled much too hard in a classified event two outings ago, unsurprisingly weakening from 2f out, but caught the eye last time, having been well backed. His jockey George Baker was understandably at pains to settle him at the rear of the field, but in a race not run at a frantic gallop he was left with too much to do and never looked like landing a blow. He was going on nicely at the finish, though, giving the impression there might be more ability than shown by the bare form figures even if there was an element of running through beaten horses that day. Presumably heíll be dropped in from his wide draw, and if he gets a decent pace to run at, we could see an improved effort today. 1pt win VERMEYEN (7-1 bet365, Betfred, Coral, Paddy Power, Stan James*) "


Notes:-
[Opened 4/1 on-course & to 3/1f] [Scope To Improve past OR rather than BTOR?]



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/01/2013 Avonrose D. Shaw McLeanA5 LNGA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Lingfield (2.45) AVONROSE will be hard to beat if sheís able to reproduce her recent effort at Wolverhampton. She has taken a while to find her form but her effort at Wolverhampton last week came in an exceptional time for the grade behind the in-form Aubrietia, and she shaped as if the return to 7f would be in her favour. No class 5 race over course and distance at Wolverhampton has ever been run in a faster time than that recorded by the winner on her 6f win earlier in the month, and Avonrose clearly ran into one at the top of her game that day, the pair pulling well clear of the in-form Miss Bunter. The obvious negative is her riderís inexperience (yet to ride a winner), but I think thatís factored into her price and if Avonrose runs to the same level as last time she would be hard to beat. 1pt win AVONROSE (7-1 Betfred, Boylesports, Coral, Paddy Power, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG

HT Selection Text:-

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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
" TIME DS

HT Selection Text:-

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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
25/01/2013 Experimentalist VaughanT SweeneyD WTON 16.5 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"Thereís not much that makes significant appeal to me today, but at Wolverhampton (6.00) EXPERIMENTALIST might be worth chancing after shaping well on his debut for his current yard. That effort came in a steadily-run affair at Kempton, so his stamina in a truly-run race over todayís extended 2m trip isnít guaranteed, but he shaped quite well in pulling a long way clear with two other horses in the closing stages. The winner, Entitlement, looks progressive, whilst the third, Llamadas, had won his previous start and went in again off a 1lb higher mark at Kempton last night, so thereís a degree of solidity to the form despite the time being moderate. 1pt win EXPERIMENTALIST (13-2 Boylesports, Stan James, 6-1 Betfred, Paddy Power, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
26/01/2013 Quaddick Lake ScottJ ScholfieldN CHAM 17 HVS

HT Selection Text:-

"QUADDICK LAKE is a ten-year-old, but he has taken on a new lease of life since joining Jeremy Scott and he looks interesting again in the 2m1f handicap hurdle at Cheltenham today (4.10). His resurgence has been remarkable given his age, better now than at any other stage in his career, and he looks ready for a crack at this type of race, as although this trip might look sharp enough for him (won over 3m earlier in his career and 2m4f this year), he travels strongly and gives the impression a truly-run race in a big field will always provide his ideal scenario. He was still travelling strongly when coming down four out at Kempton last time, and he might be able to pounce late once again. 1pt win QUADDICK LAKE (18-1 Coral, BetVictor, Stan James - All *BOG )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
26/01/2013 Patriotic C. A. Dywer SilvaRD3 LNGA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Lingfield, PATRIOTIC can go well at reasonable odds in the 1m handicap (2.35). He was never likely to be suited by the drop to 7f last time, only the second time in his career he had dropped below a mile, and the situation was exacerbated by a steady early pace. In the circumstances, he ran well to finish third, and although he was well held by Fast Finian that day, the latter has proven form at 7f. Patriotic has dropped to a fair mark again and might be sharpened up by cheekpieces here, and although this looks a warm contest for the grade, if close to his best he would be thereabouts here. 1pt win PATRIOTIC ( 11-1 Coral, William Hill both *BOG, 10-1 general - use *BOG firms )"


Notes:-
[Compet off OR with Excuses prev rather than BTOR?]



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
27/01/2013 Rysbrack P. R. Webber ElsworthD WTON 16.5 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"There's not much to get too excited about on today's sole surviving UK card, the bumpers-for-jumpers affair at Wolverhampton, and I won't be having a bet myself, but for those looking for an interest RYSBRACK should go well in the third event (2.40). He would have been just about the best of these on the Flat, and has a fair effort at this track to his name when third under 10 stone over the extended 1m4f here in August. He has a Flat pedigree, showed plenty of speed when winning his bumper, and has shaped reasonably well in novice hurdles, so he ought to give his running again here. 1pt win RYSBRACK ( 4-1 general - use *BOG firms ) "


Notes:-
[Drifted from 9/4 to 3/1f on-course]



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
28/01/2013 Brimstome Hill A. T. Carson CarsonW KTNA 11 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"BRIMSTONE HILL remains fairly handicapped after a series of good runs on Polytrack and should go well in the 1m3f handicap at Kempton today (4.20). He found himself poorly positioned at Wolverhampton last time, still last approaching the final turn in a race where the two frontrunners, who rather steadied the pace down the back straight before kicking on the home turn, never looked like being caught. Brimstone Hillís steady late headway suggested he was still in form, however, and he had shaped as if another win wasnít far away on each of his three previous starts, notably when pulling a long way clear of a subsequent winner when runner-up to a lightly-raced Sir Michael Stoute horse on his penultimate start. Reflect could go well at a price as heís another who wasnít suited by the run of the race last time, but Brimstone Hill looks more solid. 1pt win BRIMSTONE HILL (5-1 Betfred, Boylesports, Coral*) "


Notes:-
[3rd btn 2 x noses in Photo. Held up & strong finish and Just failed]



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
28/01/2013 Blue Noodles J. S. Wainwright FrenchA7am WTON 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"BLUE NOODLES shaped very well when third last time, staying on steadily from a long way back, and having raced from wide stalls on his two recent starts he is potentially well drawn in the second division of the amateur ridersí handicap at Wolverhampton (2.10). His jockey has yet to ride a winner under a licence; however that looks to be largely because all bar one of his rides have come for a stable (John Wainwright) that built up a huge losing run, but might be returning to form, having already recorded a 33-1 win this month. Blue Noodles himself has run with credit from stalls eight and nine of ten on his two starts since returning from a break, and although his wins to runs ratio is moderate, a reproduction of anything like his best Polytrack form, or even his latest effort, would see him go close here; he was beaten only half a length and a neck off a 7lb higher mark in this race last year under todayís rider. 1pt win BLUE NOODLES (13-2 Betfred, 6-1 Boylesports, Coral, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
29/01/2013 Ace Master S. R. Bowring CoumbeM3 WTON 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Not an easy day to find punting opportunities, with the dayís most interesting race, the extended 1m handicap at Wolverhampton, having too many interesting horses for my liking. In the second division of the 7f handicap (5.30), however, I do think ACE MASTER is a bit overpriced. Heís a horse that will perhaps be of most interest back on Fibresand when Southwell reopens, as all three career wins have come there, but he has run creditably on his last two starts, including on his first start in blinkers last time over a trip that is probably short of his best, when he was unlucky to run into two in-form rivals. Back at 7f, and with his stable having had a couple of horses return to form out of the blue lately, heís probably a bit bigger price than he should be. 1pt win ACE MASTER (12-1 bet365, Skybet 11-1 Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power) "


Notes:-
[2 x NR by 11



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
30/01/2013 On The Hoof M. W. Easterby HopkinsM7 KTNA 10 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"ON THE HOOF ran a blinder at Wolverhampton last week and will take some stopping if in the same form at Kempton today (5.20). He won three in a row towards the end of last year, but his latest effort was more than enough to suggest heís still fairly handicapped; he helped set a really strong pace at Wolverhampton, but whereas fellow-frontrunner Honey Of A Kitten (who had won her previous start) faded away to finish last, On The Hoof kept going well to finish second to course specialist Noble Jack, who is unbeaten in four starts at the 1m/1m1f distances at that track. On The Hoof is actually a pound lower here (2lb higher from Saturday), has the plum draw in stall 1, and his apprentice rider, who was on board last time and won on him in November, looks good value for his claim. 1pt win ON THE HOOF (7-2 Stan James, 3-1 bet365, Boylesports, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
30/01/2013 Atlantis Crossing R. Harris KirbyA KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"There are few horses around on Polytrack at present that have given the impression they are in such rude health as ATLANTIS CROSSING (7.20) and he was so impressive on his latest start that he must have good prospects of defying a further 6lb rise in the weights. He did really well last time to run down Light From Mars, who led on the bridle entering the straight and quickly pulled three lengths clear of the remainder, yet had no answer to Atlantis Crossing, who mowed him down without his rider even picking up the whip. The time of the race was good, and Atlantic Crossing should get the decent pace that suits with several prominent runners in the line-up, so Adam Kirby might be able to produce him with one of his trademark strong finishes once again. 1pt win ATLANTIS CROSSING (9-2 Boylesports, Coral*)"


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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
31/01/2013 Triple Dream J. M. Bradley WinstonR WTON 5.1 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"TRIPLE DREAM should go well in the 5f handicap at Wolverhampton this evening (6.50). He has produced two good efforts since returning from a break, firstly unlucky to run into a resurgent Diamond Charlie at Kempton, but doing well to beat the rest considering he had to be switched approaching the furlong pole, and then battling on well to finish third from a wide draw over todayís course and distance last time. He had Dorback and Alaskan Bullet behind him that day, and whilst both those rivals have run well since (especially Alaskan Bullet, who caught the eye), the discrepancy between their respective prices doesnít look justified. With stable mate Island Legend, Verinco and Six Wives all potential frontrunners, the race should be run to suit as he seems best off a strong gallop. 1pt win TRIPLE DREAM (11-2 bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, Coral, Paddy Power*) "


Notes:-
[Strong Finish from Held up and closing clear leader down through line. Another BradleyJM tip/eye.]



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/02/2013 Malaysian Boleh S. Dow TurnerH LNGA 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"MALAYSIAN BOLEH might be the interesting one in the 6f 3yo handicap at Lingfield today (1.30). He has yet to make the frame in four starts, but this looks a significantly easier task than some of the races he has contested so far. His latest effort came in a 0-75 event in which winner Ashamaly (who has won off a 10lb higher mark since) was in a different league to his rivals; nonetheless, Malaysian Bolehís effort in finishing sixth reads quite well, as he was only just behind Lucky Di, who was beaten a nose in another 0-75 event on his next outing, and Club House, who won 0-85 events on his next two starts. Hayley Turner has an excellent record for Simon Dow, especially in handicaps (20-104, +67pts) and Malaysian Boleh should go well in what looks a lesser race than those he has contested so far. 1pt win MALAYSIAN BOLEH (17-2 bet365, 8-1 Betfred, Coral, Stan James, William Hill*) "


Notes:-
[Reads a bit weak before race. 5TO 3yo off a Brk32 and never placed. Topweight with OR63 & others down to OR51. Others a mix of exposed and some potential, e.g. 4TO Gebayl for TateJJS & Manana. Tip reads like HT believes ok form and this a lesser race. Hayley Turner record for DowS seems a weak Support & what about his record off a break?, or with 3yo Handicappers, etc.. 4/1 2nd Fav by 10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/02/2013 Christopher Chua S. Dow TurnerH LNGA 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At the risk of putting all my eggs in one basket, I think Simon Dowís other runner at Lingfield, CHRISTOPHER CHUA, is also a shade overpriced in what doesnít look a strong heat (2.00), and the stableís form has been very good this month. He was disappointing last time, but possibly saw too much daylight early, fading in the straight, and might be better judged on his previous runs when able to get cover during the early stages. Three outings ago he looked poised to challenge when getting no run down the outside (hampered and rider almost unseated), and his penultimate run at Wolverhampton reads well, third behind the very well-handicapped pair Sandy Lane and Valdaw, with subsequent winners Kai and Dixie Gwalia behind. With Turner again in the saddle, heíd have a good chance here if bouncing back from that latest effort. 1pt win CHRISTOPHER CHUA (12-1 general)"


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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
02/02/2013 Kaylif Aramis DaviesNAT DaviesST FFOS 20 HV

HT Selection Text:-

"KAYLIF ARAMIS is a brother to confirmed stayer Kayf Aramis, but he shaped as if 3m was too far for him, at least at this stage of his career, at Ascot last time and he is interesting dropped to 2m4f at Ffos Las today (3.45). He probably raced too keenly to give himself a realistic chance of getting 3m on heavy ground in that Ascot race, but he was still on the bridle when joining the eventual winner two out, before fading in the closing stages. There's obviously a chance he is simply a bridle horse, and anybody backing him might want to put in a short-odds in-running lay, as he's been matched in-running at evens or shorter on six of his seven starts to date - but it might be that 2m4f on heavy ground will be his ideal scenario and he's worth the chance to confirm the promise of that recent effort. 1pt win KAYLIF ARAMIS (8-1 general - use *BOG firms )"


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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
02/02/2013 Speedyfix C. A. Dunnett NortonF LNGA 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the first division of the 6f handicap at Lingfield today (2.20) Rich Again, one of my eyecatchers from the Form Factor this week, runs, but it's hard to say he's any value at his current odds of 3-1 or less from the widest draw. Instead it might be worth having a small bet on SPEEDYFIX. . He's drawn wide too, but is priced up at radically different odds, and if Franny Norton can get a good position early on, he could certainly outrun his odds. He shaped as if in good form on his latest start over today's course and distance, again drawn high and forced four wide but lasting longer than might have been expected into the straight before his wide passage took its toll. His two career wins have come over 5f, but he seems to find that trip on the sharp side these days; he might find today's company a bit hot, but his latest run was definitely better than the bare form suggests and if he gets a good ride he might go well at big odds. 1pt win SPEEDYFIX (28-1 Paddy Power, William Hill, Skybet, Sportingbet )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG

HT Selection Text:-

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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
" Won NTO at 7/1 with HT on Holiday Weekend = 0-55 and weaker race SHPBTR RO

HT Selection Text:-

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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/02/2013 Muhandis N. P. Littmoden SandersS LNGA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"MUHANDIS has done most of his recent running at 7f, but he gives the impression he is at least as good at 1m - apart from anything else, that distance gives him more time to recover from his habitual slow starts - and he looks sure to give another good account at Lingfield today (4.10). Some of his formlines this winter are very strong, and he has produced a series of good time figures for the grade, including when third to Balti's Sister last time, staying on strongly up the far rail having come from an unpromising position. He probably wasn't suited by the relatively steady gallop when third to today's rival Storm Runner on his previous start (hampered close to the finish), and his three efforts prior to that have all been well franked - the two horses that beat him, Paphos and Al's Memory, both won their next two starts, as did Mr Knightley, who finished second to him in December. There are plenty of likely-looking dangers, notably Push Me, who chased a strong pace last time, shaped well in the circumstances and has the services of a very promising 7lb claimer, but it will be disappointing if Muhandis doesn't go close here. 1pt win MUHANDIS (13-2 Paddy Power *BOG, 6-1 general - use *BOG firms ) "


Notes:-
[Slow Race, winner won by 1.75L and rest in a heap. Muhandis around 0.5L off 2nd but raced wide and took time to get going wide in str looking about a bit]



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/02/2013 She's Some Girl R. A. Fahey MucHughB LNGA 10 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"SHE'S SOME GIRL looks overpriced now she steps up to 1m2f (Lingfield 2.10). She's by sprinter Camacho, but her dam and most of her dam's half-siblings produced their best performances at around 1m2f, and She's Some Girl has shaped as if there might be a little improvement stepped up to this trip on a couple of occasions. Her last two efforts have both worked out quite well, especially her latest one at Wolverhampton; she was beaten nearly six lengths in fourth, but not only did the winner go in again next time, but the third and fifth (twice, albeit over longer distances) have also gone well since. She was also well in front of Precision Strike, but is almost twice the price of that horse in the betting this morning. Richard Fahey complicates matters by saddling another potential improver at the trip (Annalova), and there are a couple more lightly-raced potential improvers, but She's Some Girl's form is probably a bit more solid than the bare figures suggest and just a small amount of improvement at the trip would set a fair standard here. 1pt win SHE'S SOME GIRL (12-1 William Hill, Betvictor, Bet365 *BOG, 11-1 Stan James *BOG) "


Notes:-
[T Eaves riding other Fahey rnr. Drifted 6/1 on course. 5th of 6 with an NR. Precision Strike won race & other Fahey runner last of 6 at 25/1.]



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
04/02/2013 Ches Jicaro J. W. Unett ProbertD WTON 5.1 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Thereís no doubt that the most interesting thing happening in racing today is the Listed Hurdle at Doncaster Ė for what itís worth Iíd definitely be with Rock On Ruby at the prices this morning in that race, as I think his form at this stage is simply better than that of his rivals. On a fairly mundane card at Wolverhampton, it might be worth having a small speculative bet on CHES JICARO in the 5f handicap at Wolverhampton (3.20). He has been beaten a long way on all three starts in maidens, and it has to be a possibility he simply doesnít have any ability; however, he showed up for a bit longer dropped to 6f last time, disputing the lead going well enough turning for home before fading quickly in the straight. He now drops to 5f and gets headgear off the basement mark on his handicap debut, and heís bred to be a sprinter Ė two of his three half-brothers won at 6f and the third at 7f, his dam Ďs two wins came over 5f, and his sireís six career wins all came at the minimum trip. His small stable has been in exceptional form over the last couple of months Ė having averaged three to four winners a year in recent seasons, the stableís last 20 runners have produced seven wins, three 2nds and four 3rds Ė and whilst Ches Jicaro isnít one for those who definitely want to get a run for their money Ė if the headgear doesnít work heíll probably finish last Ė thereís enough to make him worth chancing at biggish odds. No Mean Trick is well handicapped on his old form and if the early money for him this morning proves sustained heíd clearly be the one to beat in this grade. 1pt win CHES JICARO (20-1 general)"


Notes:-
Visor FT on 4TO. Slow start them got to 2R but 2Wd and sqzd out -2f on bend. Started hanging right and ended up wide in str and not going fwd and perhaps NFc Visor as HT suggested.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/02/2013 Bandstand B. Smart EavesT SWEL 6 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"BANDSTAND ran into subsequent Portland winner Poetís Place on his racecourse debut at Southwell, but his three subsequent runs on Fibresand have all been very good and he looks interesting now he returns to that surface at Southwellís long-awaited reopening fixture today (3.40). He registered two wins over todayís course and distance early in 2012 (each of them following a modest effort on Polytrack) and one of them was this race last year off a mark of 76; he hasnít run on Fibresand since but is able to run off the same mark again today after a couple of below-par efforts on Polytrack. With a recent run at Wolverhampton to blow the cobwebs away, it should come as no surprise if he bounces back to form here. Waking Warrior also goes very well here and looks a big danger. 1pt win BANDSTAND (7-1 Betfred, William Hill, 6-1 Boylesports, Coral, Paddy Power*)"


Notes:-
2 x SWEL Switcher Tips on day and no sign this is a strong angle. Track Completely Relaid and first meeting back since Nov 2012 and Strong Tailwind in Straight. Both Tips on day used SWEL Switch angle and nothing in either to make it look worthwhile. Needs something stronger in Supports than either of these offerred? ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/02/2013 Jack Dawkins D. Nicholls SandersS SWEL 12 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 1m4f claimer (2.40) JACK DAWKINS will have a legitimate chance of upsetting the short-priced favourite if in the same mood as when last seen on Fibresand. He had some excellent efforts on the surface last winter, including when beating course specialist Trans Sonic by nine lengths last April over 1m3f. Trans Sonic himself had beaten Stand Guard (admittedly getting 4lb) by seven lengths the previous month, and whilst I am no fan of collateral form generally, the clock backs up the suggestion that Jack Dawkins will have a decent chance if on his game returning to Fibresand here. 1pt win JACK DAWKINS (4-1 bet365, Paddy Power, William Hilll*)"


Notes:-
52 Day break & not placed in last 4 runs. 2 x NR by 10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/02/2013 White Fusion D. O'Meara TudhopeD SWEL 16 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"WHITE FUSION hasnít been very consistent in his career to date, but he ran really well on his sole previous start on Fibresand and he looks interesting in the 2m handicap at Southwell today (4.45). His standout performance on the Flat came on his only previous start on Fibresand a year ago, when he chased home Chabado, who was receiving 5lb and went on to win her next two starts (albeit on Polytrack), and is currently rated 86. The third and fourth horses that day (from the Johnston and Gosden yards) finished first and second, nine lengths clear, in a Southwell maiden next time. White Fusion hasnít been with David OíMeara long, and whilst he isnít guaranteed to stay 2m on the Flat (has won over hurdles), a reproduction of his previous Southwell effort would see him hard to beat if his stamina lasts. 1pt win WHITE FUSION (9-2 Coral, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Put up as Eye for this 3rd. HT saying he did not stay here. Hanging on and keeping on mining the same idea/angle and hoping for right set-up (12f SWEL) in future. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/02/2013 Ishi B. R Millman AtzeniA SWEL 6 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"ISHI is only moderate, but she didnít shape badly at Kempton last week, and there are a couple of reasons for thinking she might improve for the switch to Fibresand at Southwell today (2.00). The progeny of her sire Ishiguru tend to do much better on Fibresand (14.2%) than on Polytrack (8.4%), whilst itís a similar story for her trainer Rod Millman, whose horses have a much better record on Fibresand (15.7% and a healthy return on investment) than on Polytrack (7.9% and a heavy loss). The stable had another Southwell winner yesterday and it may be that the switch to Fibresand may prompt improvement in Ishi. 1pt win ISHI (14-1 Stan James, 12-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/02/2013 Lakota Ghost DurackS FahyJP SWEL 12 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"LAKOTA GHOST might be the interesting one in the 1m4f handicap at Southwell (3.05). He shaped as if ahead of his mark for a long way at Kempton when last seen on the Flat in September, but seemed not to get home over the 2m trip. The first two home have both franked the form since, and his lack of a recent run might not be a problem given he was returning from a six-month absence at Kempton. His US pedigree and his decent cruising speed suggest he might be suited by this surface, and thereís nothing wrong with the stable form (last two runners both won, albeit had obvious chances). 1pt win LAKOTA GHOST (5-1 Boylesports, Paddy Power*)"


Notes:-
HT said he intended to delete 1 (poss 2) from 4 he wrote up on Tues night before going into Form Factor on Weds am. He forgot so ended up with 4 x tips which he did not want to do. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/02/2013 Ada Lovelace D. K. Ivory CrowleyJ KTNA 5 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Kempton (6.05) ADA LOVELACE is up 9lb for her recent Lingfield win, but although she is favourite I still thought she would be even shorter than her odds this morning as many of the opposition look easy to oppose. Most of her rivals are thoroughly exposed, hard to win with, or ungenuine (or a combination of all three); Ada Lovelace, by contrast, landed a big gamble on her handicap debut at Lingfield, having shown promise in maidens, and she was very impressive that day, shooting clear of her rivals in the straight. Windpower won a claimer over the same course and distance that day in a time 0.11 seconds slower off very similar fractions, but was carrying a stone less than Ada Lovelace, and Ada Lovelace looks far more straightforward than that rival. With Jim Crowley on board again, everything looks in place for another big run from Ada Lovelace. 1pt win ADA LOVELACE (5-2 Boylesports, Paddy Power, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
OR71 on 2nd hcap run. 1 x NR by 11



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/02/2013 Blackdown Spirit P. W. D'Arcy KirbyA WTON 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"The quality of 3yo sprints (both maidens and handicaps) at this time of year is decidedly moderate, with very few progressive types around, and it might pay to look at horses returning from a break in such events rather than horses that have form in weak races over the winter. In the 6f handicap at Wolverhampton this evening (7.35), it might be worth chancing BLACKDOWN SPIRIT on his return from an absence and first start for Paul DíArcy. He won a heavy-ground maiden for Rod Millman as a 2yo, and subsequently contested much better races than this; he couldnít make much impact in a couple of class 2 nurseries, but ran really well on his final start returned to softer ground, better than the bare result having raced away from what appeared to be the favoured far rail in an Ascot Sales race. That form has worked out quite well, and Blackdown Spiritís subsequent 4lb drop appears generous; he wouldnít be certain to flourish on Polytrack judged on pedigree, but the booking of Adam Kirby and the fitting of headgear suggest connections mean business, and the stable won with its sole ďswitcherĒ last year (Fast Finian). 1pt win BLACKDOWN SPIRIT (13-2 Betfred, Boylesports, Paddy Power*)"


Notes:-
Brk124 and t/w at OR80 despite OR drop. ][ Hadn't run again in GB by 10/1/14 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/02/2013 Shotavodka PipeD ScudamoreT TAUN 17 HV

HT Selection Text:-

"At Taunton (2.15) SHOTAVODKA is interesting in the maiden hurdle after shaping much better than the bare result on his hurdles debut at Wetherby. An impressive bumper winner in Ireland and second on his debut for David Pipe in that sphere, Shotavodka pulled much too hard to give himself any chance of getting home over 2m in the mud at Wetherby on his hurdles debut, but pulled a few lengths clear along with eventual winner Up And Go before fading quickly in the home straight. The runner-up in that race had already won an Ascot novice hurdle and the third was just beaten off a mark off 124 yesterday, so the form of that novice event looks very respectable, and in shaping well for three quarters of the race Shotavodka did enough to suggest he will translate his fair bumper form to hurdling if he settles better over this shorter trip round a sharper track. Maxi Chop is favourite for Paul Nicholls, and he clearly could be an improved performer for his new yard, but itís a shade surprising that heís going down the maiden hurdle route given the horseís rating of 120. 1pt win SHOTAVODKA (9-2 Stan James*, 4-1 general with B.OG firms)"


Notes:-
Ran over 20f LTO and not 16f as HT Text suggests. 5TO and most experience in solid Maiden with right stables with reps (Nicholls, Hobbs, MooreGL FTO as other single fig SP forecasts). Opened 11/4f on-course. Nicholls' Maxi Chop opened 3/1 & in to 9/4 2ndf & 2nd.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/02/2013 Sir Boss M. Mullineax EavesT WTON 12.2 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"SIR BOSS has run a series of excellent races this winter and there seems no reason why he shouldnít go well again in the 1m4f handicap at Wolverhampton tonight (7.30). He cut down course specialist Illustrious Forest (wide-margin winner next time) with plenty to spare on Boxing Day despite conceding first run, and again shaped well behind Cool Sky last time, probably unsuited by the steady early pace. That form is working out well enough, with the winner and fourth both finishing runner-up to the in-form English Summer next time and fifth-placed Reflect winning a competitive event at Kempton. This looks a tough race with any number of interesting runners, but Sir Boss has won off this mark in the past and might be able to improve on his already-excellent Polytrack strike rate. 1pt win SIR BOSS (11-1 Stan James, 10-1 general)"


Notes:-
Doesn't seem much of an Angle here beyond an in form runner. Presumably just a Price choice? ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/02/2013 Moleskin DartnallVRA DoyleJ KTON 24 GSS

HT Selection Text:-

"MOLESKIN has run well on both starts at Kempton and, after shaping as if in need of the run on his return from a long absence, he should go well in the 3m handicap chase (4.00). He finished second over this course and distance two years ago, clear of the rest, and on his only other subsequent start at this track he won comfortably. He tired in the home straight having contested the lead over a trip that is on the sharp side at Wincanton on his return from a nine-month absence at Wincanton, and should be straighter here. His chances might depend on to what degree he is taken on for the lead (there are a couple of others in the race that also tend to race prominently), but if he can get into a rhythm he might be hard to peg back. 1pt win MOLESKIN (8-1 bet365, Boylesports, William Hill)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG

HT Selection Text:-

""


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
" CRSFM DS

HT Selection Text:-

""


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/02/2013 Master Of The Sea DaviesNAT DaviesST NWBY 24 SGS

HT Selection Text:-

"MASTER OF THE SEA clearly started his handicapping career on a mark that bore no relation to his ability, and his latest swingeing rise might still net be enough to stop him now he steps up to 3m at Newbury today (1.50). Having pulled well clear with another mudlark in an excellent time at Aintree two outings ago, he completed the hat-trick over 2m6f at Wincanton last time; having looked in trouble after clattering the penultimate hurdle, the eventual runner-up looking to be going better at that stage, Master Of The Sea surged clear after the last to win going away. Stamina is clearly his strong suit and although the 16lb rise looks harsh on the face of it, the step up to an extended 3m is sure to suit, especially with the hurdles course tending to ride much more testing than the chase track at Newbury. 1pt win MASTER OF THE SEA (8-1 Boylesport, Stan James *BOG, 7-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
X-Ref as was first Tip recorded in this survey. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/02/2013 The Betchworth Kid M. L. W. Bell McCarthyJA NWBY 20 SGS

HT Selection Text:-

"In the Betfair Hurdle (3.35), with the hope that the ground on the hurdles track rides testing, I can't help thinking that THE BETCHWORTH KID is worth a small each-way bet with conditions likely to suit. He's never been the easiest to predict and his jumping over hurdles hasn't always been the slickest, but a decent gallop on soft ground has always looked to be his ideal scenario, and he produced probably his best performance over hurdles in this race two years ago when fourth, staying on from the rear in a race where the first three were at the head of the field turning for home (had also run well in the Gerry Feilden over this course and distance that season, and best Flat form came on courses with long, galloping straights). He's now an eight-year-old, but he showed plenty of ability remains when storming clear in a 0-95 handicap at Salisbury last October on very testing ground. That was his first start since rejoining Michael Bell (he shaped as if amiss on his only subsequent start); much depends on whether he's on a going day or not, but given he would have gone close to winning this race two years ago off a 3lb higher mark had there been a stronger gallop (which looks to be on the cards today), it's not impossible to see him threading his way through from the rear if he can keep close enough during the first half of the race. 1pt each way THE BETCHWORTH KID (100-1 Stan James *BOG, 80-1 Bet365, Betvictor, Coral *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/02/2013 Shearian A. W. Carroll TateR7 SWEL 8 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"At first glance SHEARIAN has little prospect of reversing Tuesday's form with favourite Napinda in the 1m handicap at Southwell (2.50). Napinda finished three and a half lengths in front of Shearian that day, and is actually 4lb better off here. However, I thought Shearian shaped a fair bit better than the distance beaten suggests on Tuesday, as he took a while to get to grips with the new surface, probably not helped by racing up the inside rail down the back straight, then had to switch round the weakening Una Bella Cosa on the home turn, before making good steady progress towards the far rail in the home straight in a race where the action unfolded centre to stands side. He had been shaping well enough on Polytrack prior to that Fibresand debut, and if he can be better positioned turning for home this time I think he'll give the favourite much more to think about; Darkest Night has been in good form on Polytrack, but it remains to be seen if he can replicate that form on his first start at Southwell. 1pt win SHEARIAN (3-1 Betvictor, Betfred *BOG - 11-4 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
On first read seems a weak argument. Why isn't the horse going to run similarly? Why should he be nearer into HS? etc Checked and this is a 3 horse race! ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/02/2013 Bitaphon M. Appleby MullenA SWEL 7 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"BITAPHON had one piece of course and distance form as a 2yo that would give him a great chance in the 7f handicap at Southwell today (4.50), and having refound his form since joining Michael Appleby, he looks interesting returned to the track where he showed so much initial promise. He beat Flying Pickets by half a length here as a 2yo giving him 3lb, the pair pulling a long way clear,but his form was up and down subsequently. However, after some fair efforts on Polytrack since joining Appleby, he looks very interesting here off a mark of 58, 3lb lower than for his win, and getting 11lb from Flying Pickets. This looks a very competitive race for the grade, with plenty that can be given a chance, but Bitaphon looks potentially very well handicapped on Fibresand these days. 1pt win BITAPHON (5-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
X-Ref to earlier Eyecatcher Record. Last race on card and trnr/jk already had 2 x wins in earlier races. = trnr fm.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/02/2013 Maggie Pink M. Appleby MullenA WTON 7.1 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"One of the more interesting runners today at Wolverhampton is Patriotic, and no doubt plenty of Form Factor viewers were on him last night, as I highlighted in the eyecatchers section of the programme after each of his last two runs that he would be interesting back at Wolverhampton and granted a stiffer test of stamina. He looks about the right price at the moment though, so for those who havenít had a bet yet Iím going to suggest MAGGIE PINK (Wolverhampton 6.00) as one worth backing this morning. She was value for more than the bare margin when winning over todayís course and distance in November, opening a big lead before paying for her earlier exertions from a wide stall. Her trainer warned she might just need the run before her recent reappearance having missed work due to the cold snap and she ran accordingly, travelling well but one paced off the bridle. She gives the impression she might prove a bit better than 0-60 grade in time and her trainer could hardly be in better form after his treble yesterday. The obvious danger is Dashwood, who is very well handicapped on his best form and whose odds have plummeted this morning. 1pt win MAGGIE PINK (5-1 Stan James, 9-2 Betfred, Boylesports, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
More latching onto trainers he likes and 'in form' - ApplebyMA had 3 winners at SWEL prev day incl one HT tip and trnr a SWITCHER target for HT. Race won by Dashwood who was an early morning 'Market Mover'. HT tweeted that he had delayed putting this Tip up after 'send across' message to see what price MP went to after Dashwood shortening. ][ Also another, rarish, example of HT talking up his own Tips/Eyes or moaning about one being 'unlucky' ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/02/2013 Day Of Destiny J. G. Given SullivanJP SWEL 12 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"DAY OF DESTINY appeals as the type to take to Fibresand and looks worth chancing on his Southwell debut today (4.50). Heís a keen-racing, strong-travelling type, and has shaped well on two of his last three starts on Polytrack, the latest coming when chasing home fair performer Wordiness, with the remainder beaten a long way. His sire has a reasonable record on Fibresand (albeit mostly at shorter distances), and perhaps more importantly his trainer James Given has an excellent record over the past twelve months with horses having their first run on Fibresand Ė indeed, his last six horses to make their Fibresand debuts have all won, and five of them started at 8-1 or bigger. 1pt win DAY OF DESTINY (7-2 general*)"


Notes:-
DoD an 8yo & tw OR62. Ran once for HillsBW at 2yo then sold & no run until Hurdling as 5yo in Ireland. NH rnr 2011 in Britain then first flat run since 2yo for Given in Nov 2012 as 7yo. Plcd over 12f & 13f at WTON off OR62-3. This 5TO for trnr and SWEL switch. Cost Ä60k and sprint ped but deb for Hills in Nov over 7f. 2 x NR (13/2 & 20/1) in am then another WD (14/1) to leave 5 rnr rc.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/02/2013 Kakatosi M. Murphy AhernE KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"KAKATOSI has done enough to suggest he is back in form since joining Mike Murphy, just not having had the opportunity to show it on his last two starts, and he looks to have a good chance in the 7f handicap at Kempton tonight (7.00). He needs a strong gallop at 6f, and took advantage of such a scenario when winning at Lingfield on his first start for his current yard. However, he has been unsuited by what have been steady gallops for the grade on his last two starts, nearest at the finish on both occasions. In particular, he shaped very well in the circumstances at Kempton last time, his fate sealed by halfway, when he was in last place in a race run considerably more slowly to that stage than the class 6 handicap that followed it. Kakatosi did make some eyecatching late progress, but far too late to have an impact on the result. He will be suited by the return to 7f and remains very well handicapped now he has found his form again (won a class 2 handicap over todayís course and distance off a 10lb higher mark a couple of years ago, and runner-up three times at Listed level on turf in 2011). The biggest danger might be Polar Kite, who has been impressive in claimers on his last two starts and recorded a fair time at Lingfield on his latest start. 2pts win KAKATOSI (5-1 general with B.O.G firms)"


Notes:-
Rare 2pts Win Selection. Sent over early by HT on a day he goes into studio for Form Factor. Kakatosi dec an NR at 10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/02/2013 Penbryn N. P. Littmoden SandersS KTNA 10 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"PENBRYN was one of my eyecatchers on last weekís Form Factor programme and although he has a very difficult draw to overcome at Kempton tonight (5.30) he looks just about worth chancing. He showed signs of a return to form last time at Lingfield, always up with the strong pace and briefly looking like winning when a couple of lengths clear at the furlong pole before fading. He hasnít always looked straightforward (has high head carriage), but didnít appear to do anything wrong last time, and although he will need a good ride from stall 12 with the first turn at Kempton coming up quickly, there donít appear to be any habitual front-runners in the field and his jockey might be able to get him across to the rail, or close to it. 1pt win PENBRYN (10-1 general)"


Notes:-
Weak reasoning and as many -ves (Dw, Head Carriage, weak wording like 'just about worth chancing') as real +ves. = Beaten 0.5L and is HT seeing something? ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/02/2013 Harvest Mist LycettS KirbyA KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"HARVEST MIST produced an improved effort when winning at Wolverhampton last time dropped to 7f for the first time for her current yard and can confirm that improvement at Kempton tonight (8.00). She had the run of the race that day, kicking in the home straight off a fairly steady pace, but in pulling well clear along the progressive and heavily-backed favourite, it seems fair to assume that this was a significant step up on her previous efforts, especially as the first division of the same handicap run half an hour earlier produced a slower time off a stronger pace. The form is already looking solid enough, with third placed Brown Volcano, beaten four and a half lengths that day, going down by just three quarters of a length next time, whilst fifth-placed Rise To Glory recorded a clear-cut win over course and distance next time. Harvest Mist is only 4lb higher here, has a good draw and Adam Kirby is booked, so she must have a good chance of following up. 1pt win HARVEST MIST (4-1 general with B.O.G firms)"


Notes:-
Note the use of KirbyA for small stable. HT, as a former jk's agent, seems to often latch onto partic jks and their plans.][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/02/2013 Lady Of Burgundy M. D. I. Usher NewnesL5 KTNA 12 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 1m4f handicap (7.00) LADY OF BURGUNDY looks well overpriced and is worth backing to confirm the promise of her recent reappearance. She had been running over 2m when last seen, but she travelled strongly to the home turn over this shorter trip, and then made an eyecatching run which just flattened out in the closing stages, suggesting she possibly just needed what was her first run for over four months. She should get a stronger gallop here, and her stable, which was out of form when Lady Of Burgundy was running towards the end of last summer, has been in excellent form for the last couple of months. 1pt each-way LADY OF BURGUNDY (22-1 William Hill, 20-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/02/2013 Warbond M. Madgwick MorrisL KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"WARBOND doesnít win very often, but there is no doubt that he has been inconvenienced by the steady early pace on his last two starts and he looks overpriced in the 1m handicap at Kempton (6.30). He was just touched off here by Welsh Inlet over 7f here four outings ago, and the winner has won over course and distance since off a 3lb higher mark. He again ran well over 7f next time, and then has been unsuited by the steady early pace over 1m on his two most recent starts. He would have been no match for the progressive Whispering Warrior on either start, but he shaped well here two outings ago in a much better race than todayís, and was closing fast at the finish last time, again off a steady pace. The big danger looks to be the mercurial Rezwaan, who shaped as if returning to form last time; heís capable of winning this easily if close to his best so is worth a saver, though he will need a good ride from his wide draw. 1pt win WARBOND (11-1 Stan James, William Hill)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/02/2013 Comedy House M. Madgwick TateR7 LNGA 13 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"I canít pretend I have found too many horses that are drastically overpriced today, so the suggestion is an each-way double on COMEDY HOUSE in the 1m5f handicap at Lingfield (4.50) and REFRESHESTHEPARTS in the classified claimer at Wolverhampton (6.30). Comedy House must be one of the unluckiest horses on the all-weather this winter, repeatedly unlucky in running, including last time when getting going too late, still pulling well clear of his rivals along with the progressive Broxbourne, who won again next time. The danger could be Langham Lily, who won in a good time at Wolverhampton two outings ago, the only offputting thing being her two-month absence before her latest below-par effort at Kempton (though she did race fairly wide there). COMEDY HOUSE (100-30 Paddy Power, 3-1 bet365, Betfred, Coral*)"


Notes:-
Another Jk Angle? Is HT trying to latch onto a solid A7? Another slower race and CH held up and then making just ave prog in Str when bloacked bet two others and then eased v late on. Will HT put him up as an Eye next week? Continue trying to 'find' the race where things drop for him? If you used Efficiency H'cpg then finding races with Ok pc in would be easier. Just hopeful at present and not based on anything.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/02/2013 Refreshestheparts G. Baker JonesA7 WTON 9.5 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"..and REFRESHESTHEPARTS in the classified claimer at Wolverhampton (6.30). Refereshestheparts quickened well to win a steadily-run race over this course and distance two outings ago under todayís apprentice, and can be forgiven her latest effort at Kempton, where she raced very wide. Sheís better drawn here in stall 1, and granted luck in running should go well. Yourinthewill was one of my eyecatchers two outings ago and is another who has definite claims, but I would have preferred to see him run in a handicap off his old mark. REFRESHESTHEPARTS (5-1 bet365, Betfred, 9-2 Coral, Paddy Power*)"


Notes:-
Note = This was part of an EW Double recommendation with the other runner unplaced so this a LOSER.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/02/2013 ComHse/Refresh

HT Selection Text:-

""


Notes:-
Placeholder for losing EW Double



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/02/2013 Tatenen R. Rowe ThorntonA ASCT 24 S

HT Selection Text:-

"When Ascot's big meeting on January 19th fell victim to the weather, there will have been plenty of disappointed connections, but few more so, I suspect, than those of TATENEN, who looked to have been laid out for a third consecutive win in the 2m5f110y handicap run at that meeting. However, he must have good prospects of gaining compensation in the 3m handicap run there today (2.40) and looks well worth backing. This track clearly suits him very well; he was clear turning for home for both wins here despite (or maybe even because of) having raced widest of all throughout, and although he was closed down in the straight on the second occasion, he rallied extremely well to find a couple of lengths in the final 100 yards. He gives the impression an extra two and a half furlongs ought to be within his compass round here, and he's very fairly handicapped, only 7lb higher than for his 2011 16-length romp here and just a pound higher than for his 2012 win. He shaped really well on his comeback at Cheltenham on very testing ground, skipping a few lengths clear of the likes of Unioniste and Walkon before hitting four out, fading from the home turn as if the run were needed, all in all running a very similar comeback race to the one he had run in the same race before winning at Ascot last season. I thought he'd be favourite today and he certainly looks overpriced this morning back at Ascot. 2pts win TATENEN ( 7-1 Betfred, Stan James *BOG - 6-1 general use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/02/2013 Sir Boss M. Mullineax TartR7 LNGA 12 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Lingfield, it's no surprise that Push Me, one of my recent eyecatchers on the Form Factor, has already been backed from 11-2 into 3-1 in the 1m handicap. That price looks about right now, so instead I'm going to go side with another horse that will be ridden by the rapidly-improving 7lb claimer Robert Tart in SIR BOSS. He couldn't land a blow last time at Wolverhampton in a race where the front two never came back to the field (despite a fair gallop), but the balance of his form reads really well, with three of his runs producing time figures that entitle him to go close here. His apprentice really does look very good value for his 7lb claim right now, and back on board here after going close on Sir Boss in a race not run to suit at Wolverhampton two outings ago, he looks fairly priced in what is admittedly a very competitive race. 1pt win SIR BOSS ( 8-1 Coral, BetVictor - 15-2 Stan James, William Hill - All *BOG)"


Notes:-
Tipped LTO, didn't seem much of an Angle then and hard to pin one down here. Horse in ok form who had an excuse LTO when tipped and now has a usable A7 on. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/02/2013 Starlight Air J. L. Spearing TinklerA TOWC 24 GSS

HT Selection Text:-

"At Towcester today (4.00) it might be worth taking a chance to small stakes on STARLIGHT AIR. It's difficult to assess how much ability she retains after a couple of years off, but after running a fair race on her reappearance from a very long absence in October, her next race at Taunton may have come too soon (she also raced round the inner on a day when that may have been a disadvantage). She's been dropped 7lb since that run and her stable had a handicap hurdle winner with a horse returning from a break last week, whilst any further drying of the ground would be in her favour. She might simply be past her best, so I wouldn't chase her price too far down, but she's very well treated on her best form now. 1pt win STARLIGHT AIR (25-1 general use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
Opening SP 8/1 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
25/02/2013 Cardinal R. H. M. Cowell TurnerH WTON 5.1 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"The 5f handicap at Wolverhampton today (2.30) is full of in-form horses, but CARDINAL might have conditions to suit and he can make amends for an unlucky run last time. He's at his best off a strong pace and, at Wolverhampton, his best efforts have come when the track isn't riding too fast. The times at the last two meetings at Wolverhampton have been on the slow side, although with temperatures a shade higher today it isn't certain that will continue; there should be a decent gallop on in this race, though, with three or four frontrunners in opposition, and Cardinal shaped as if still in top form last time. Held up as usual, he was denied a clear run at a crucial stage before finishing fast into second place. Off the same mark as last time, he should go well again granted luck in running; Holy Angel, who has been most impressive for his last two wins, might be the biggest danger, though he is up in class. 1pt win CARDINAL (9-2 Paddy Power*, 4-1 general)"


Notes:-
3/1 by 10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
25/02/2013 Stir Trader HideP CrowleyJ KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"The 1m handicap at Kempton (4.20) is another race full of interesting horses. It's no surprise to see Guest Of Honour such a short price given his stable's form and the clear-cut nature of his last win, whilst Prince Of Burma, Loyalty and Greensward are all attractively handicapped on Polytrack these days. However, I feel there is more to come from STIR TRADER, as he has shaped well on both starts for his current yard and on each occasion has given the impression he would have done even better off a stronger gallop, winning going away at Lingfield two outings ago and then getting going too late over today's course and distance last time. This is a really competitive race and he needs to improve, but he has a good jockey booking in Jim Crowley and Stir Trader might have further progress in him on this surface. 1pt win STIR TRADER (7-1 Coral*, Stan James*, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Hard on first reading to see what the angle is = just a horse in form who might get a stronger pace race? Some hint of Switcher for HideP? [3rd beaten 5L+ bhd Photo Finish for 1st bet 10/1 wnr & 10/11f 2nd. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
26/02/2013 Dante's Frolic SmithM CookD CATT 16 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"Todayís all-weather card at Lingfield doesnít make much appeal from a betting point of view, so instead Iím going to suggest a small bet on DANTEíS FROLIC in the maresí maiden hurdle at Catterick (2.50). An impressive bumper winner on her racecourse debut a year ago for her previous yard, she has been beaten a long way in two starts over hurdles for her current yard, but she shaped much better than her finishing position over 2m4f at Wetherby on her previous start. She raced very keenly in the early stages of the race, indeed pulling her way from the back of the field into second place on the first circuit, but approaching the home turn she was still going very well in the leading quintet before her earlier exertions took their toll. That form has worked out really well - the remaining four horses in the group of five that led approaching the home turn are all rated at least 132 now, and Danteís Frolic travelled as well as any of them to that point. The drop in trip and switch to a sharp track could bring about significant improvement here, and although Toubeera is likely to set a tough standard, Danteís Frolic represents a bit of value at early prices. 1pt win DANTEíS FROLIC (16-1 bet365, Betfred, Stan James, Totesport)"


Notes:-
14/1 joint 3rd fav by 10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
27/02/2013 Seraphima A. Bailey TartR7 KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"SERAPHIMA might be the interesting one in the 7f handicap at Kempton tonight (9.00). Her form in three starts as juvenile is very modest, but she looked very green on her first two starts, when she was quite highly tried, contesting a class 4 event at Newmarket on her debut and then a class 2 conditions race at Windsor on her second start, finishing a fair fourth in the latter event. She was then off for nearly 6 months, and although she made no show in a 5f Wolverhampton maiden, she almost certainly needed further by that stage of her career, given her dam won over a mile as a 2yo and her sire won the Kentucky Derby. With rising star Robert Tart a positive jockey booking, it shouldnít be a big surprise if she proved better than her opening mark of 62 now she steps up in trip. 1pt win SERAPHIMA (7-1 Coral, Betfred, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Went back and looked at my Form and have her rated 45 which is OR65ish. She ran in two races to suggest Bailey thought she was his best early filly. Watching videos she pulls too hard then gets left behind at NMKT/WDSR when the OR75+ types press on. Didn't stop at WDSR and tv ok at points. Pre-race view that on the circs of her early runs OR62 should be usable. 6 month break to Dec12 5f WTON for 3TO with A5. Dw9 and trapped wide & drop in 2Wd. Sim look and tv ok around bend but unable to kick in str and Jk prob a bit Qt erl as 3TO. In that race was hanging onto the compet fillies ok around bend with two stragglers bhd her struggling to go pace. ] [ HT expecting Market to 'tell a story' on FFactor. 9/2 & opened that price. = What Story is that? ][ Three poor runs in 2 Hcaps and a Mden after this and low OR50s and going down by Dec 13th 2013 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
27/02/2013 Roland K. A. Ryan MakinP KTNA 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"ROLAND (Kempton 6.00) has been called a few names in his time and wouldnít normally be the type Iím interested in for a 3yo handicap anyway given this will be his 15th career start, but thereís a chance the return to a right-handed track will see him in a different light. On three occasions his rider has reported to the stewards that he hung right during the race, but and even on his most recent win at Wolverhampton his jockey struggled to get him round the left-handed bend. Arguably his most eyecatching effort came on his previous start at this track over 1m, when he almost unseated his rider at the start, raced four wide for much of the race, yet still tanked into the lead 2f out and looked the likeliest winner until the furlong pole. Heís clearly effective at 6f, having beaten Sewn Up (won next two starts) over that trip two outings ago, and although he flopped on Fibresand last time, a return to a right-handed track and Polytrack could see him bounce back. 1pt win ROLAND (6-1 Betfred, Stan James, 11-2 Coral, Paddy Power, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Weak race with Katy Spirit tw on OR65. ] [ Roland led until ins-0.5f & btn by Jimmy Elder (brkg mdn) who ran poorly at LNGA recently when ATR said he looked a dog and should never be supported.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
28/02/2013 Avonmore Star M. Murphy AhernA KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"AVONMORE STAR ran really well against a pace bias last time and should go close in the 7f handicap at Kempton this evening (7.00). That latest effort over todayís course and distance was just his second start for Mike Murphy, and the race was run at one of the strongest gallops seen over 7f at Kempton this winter; five of the first six horses approaching the home turn filled the last five places, but Avonmore Star kicked a length clear 2f out and looked to be holding on until swamped by the finishers in the final 50 yards. There doesnít look to be much pace on here, and Iím a bit surprised to see Russian Ice so heavily backed this morning to confirm the form with Avonmore Star given she only just got up in the closing stages of such a strongly-run affair. Mike Murphy does very well with horses acquired from other yards, often nursing them gradually back to form, and Avonmore Star is very well handicapped at present. 1pt win AVONMORE STAR (5-1 bet365, 9-2 Betfred, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
28/02/2013 World Freight Girl D. K. Ivory QuinnJ KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 1m handicap (8.00) WORLD FREIGHT GIRL might run a lot better than her morning odds suggest. She had looked very moderate prior to her latest effort, but the signs were more positive last time; tried in blinkers, she was held up in last place in the most steadily-run of the three course-and-distance races run that day, but she started to find her stride in the final furlong to finish a never-nearer third. She covered the final three furlongs faster than the winner, Byroness, who won easily again last night, so if the headgear continues to work, she could go well at big odds; it may be coincidence, but her sire Tumbleweed Ridge won four times in headgear. 1pt win WORLD FREIGHT GIRL (20-1 William Hill, 18-1Boylesports, 16-1 general)"


Notes:-
**NOTE = See the Headgear point and ref to Sire's use of Hdgr = Yes, it is COINCIDENCE, stop putting such wiffly crutches for yourself in the selection text HT. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/03/2013 Chokidar S. P. J. Dixon WinstonR LNGA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"CHOKIDAR has run a series of good races on Polytrack and should go well in the 7f handicap at Lingfield today (4.50). His form figures on this surface read 2312142, and his latest effort when runner-up over today's course and distance, backed up by the evidence of the clock, reads especially well; the winner hasn't run again since, but the fourth, fifth and sixth all won next time. Chokidar runs off the same mark here, and is only 3lb higher than for his first Polytrack debut despite that series of good runs. Favourite Living Leader has looked impressive and remains unexposed on Polytrack, but he has yet to record an impressive time and is returning from a three-month absence here, and probably needs to improve again. 1pt win CHOKIDAR (5-1 Boylesports*, 9-2 general)"


Notes:-
Drifted 11/4 on-course. Seemed a slower pace with winner making all and 2nd-4th all Tracked Leader(s). 85.78s.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/03/2013 Holding Fast T. B. P. Coles LaneM WTON 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Wolverhampton (6.40) HOLDING FAST is overpriced on the pick of his Polytrack form. He flopped over a mile on Fibresand last time, but is better judged on his earlier efforts here and at Lingfield; he was just worn down by Hazard Warning over this course and distance having possibly made his move too soon in January, the pair clear, and then he might have beaten the progressive Black Dave at Lingfield had he not had to wait for a run. The winner has been beaten a short head in a 0-85 handicap since and the third, Katy's Spirit, dead-heated in a 0-75 handicap next time, so Holding Fast's chance in 0-55 company is clear. He's a big price because he didn't settle two outings ago at Kempton off a steady pace, but there should be a better gallop on here, and although he will need a good ride from stall 11, he has the form to go close if he gets one. The strong-finishing Hazard Warning might again be the biggest danger if he gets the strong gallop he needs. 1pt win HOLDING FAST (12-1 Boylesports*, Coral*)"


Notes:-
Supp 11/1 on-course.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
04/03/2013 Pass Muster P. A. Kirby McGrathR SWEL 16 G

HT Selection Text:-

"This is the time of year when novice hurdlers who have earned their handicap mark under testing conditions can suddenly look very well handicapped when the ground dries out, and there will be few more obvious potential examples than PASS MUSTER at Southwell today (4.50). He has been a decent fast-ground handicapper on the Flat for Ollie Pears over the last couple of years, though probably just held by the handicapper off his mark in the low 80s. Since joining Philip Kirby, he has had three starts over hurdles, all on soft or heavy ground. He has shaped with a degree of promise on all three start despite the distance beaten, travelling well up to a point but finding the test too much on each occasion (upped to 2m4f last time). He reverts to 2m for this handicap debut and it will be no surprise if he is able to show much more on today's ground, currently described as good. 1pt win PASS MUSTER (5-1 general use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
Also an Eye so X-Ref to that. 1st OR is 91 when a flat OR80s horse ought to be able to get around low 120s on NH. Tw is only OR95 and PM 3rd tw. SLife 'In Depth' race summary doesn't mention PM at all & had him as a 12/1 forecast. PM f'cast 7/2f by 10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
04/03/2013 Legal Legacy R. Rowe CarsonW KTNA 11 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 1m3f handicap at Kempton (6.30) LEGAL LEGACY might go well at big odds. I wouldn't back him at single-figure odds because he has hasn't won for his current yard yet and also can compromise his chance by starting slowly, but he has dropped to a very handy mark and has shaped with a bit of promise on his last two starts, especially last time over today's course and distance, when he made steady progress from the back of the field to finish a never-nearer fourth in a race that wasn't run to suit hold-up horses. If he gets a decent gallop to run at he could go close off a mark that is over a stone lower than when he was running well this time last year. 1pt win LEGAL LEGACY (12-1 general use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
CIR = Started very slowly, held up in last pair, some headway over 1f out, never in conterntion ][ Update = No win in a lot of subsequent runs to year end. Two places late on at KTNA 8f & 10f when got down to OR52 (OR58 on Mar 3rd run) and but finished year beaten miles up to OR55 at LNGA ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/03/2013 Purley Queen S. Kirk BaudainsJ7 SWEL 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"PURLEY QUEEN (Southwell 5.10) is a filly I have had my eye on for a while, even if enthusiasm for her chances on her Fibresand debut today has to be tempered by questions over the trip and the draw. She has been consistently shaping better than the result on Polytrack, albeit getting going too late over 7f. Dropped to 6f here, much will depend on whether she is able to lie up early from her wide draw (two non-runners so far help her cause in that respect), but there looks to be plenty of pace in the race and if she's close enough to land a blow turning for home, she could be interesting; her sire Piccolo has a much better record on Fibresand (13.4% strike rate, +107pts level stakes profit from 620 runs,) compared to Polytrack (8.8%, -736 pts from 1950 runs). Trainer Sylvester Kirk has a good record at Southwell (including with Fibresand debutants), as does 7lb claimer Josh Baudains, and if Purley Queen can keep close enough during the early stages of the race, she could improve those records further. 1pt win PURLEY QUEEN (11-1 Bet365 *BOG, 10-1 general use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
Declared an NR at 10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/03/2013 Lukey Luke J. R. Turner BrookeH NEWC 20 SHV

HT Selection Text:-

"Ten-year-old maidens aren't usually of much interest, but LUKEY LUKE (3.20) Newcastle has shaped as if he definitely has a race in him on both starts this season. He's clearly been hard to train, but it has to be encouraging that he backed up a very good run on his return from a long absence in November with an even better one next time at Wetherby, allowing the progressive winner Saroque (now rated 114) first run but readily pulling a long way clear of the remainder in a class 4, 0-110 event. He's had another short break since but drops to a 0-95 event and is only 2lb higher than at Wetherby (where he was 4lb out of the handicap); the ground will be fine judged on that latest effort and he might be able to repay his connections' patience today. 1pt win LUKEY LUKE ( 11-2 general use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
Going description = Soft (Heavy in places,Home Straight,Good to Soft). LL off OR86. Had 12 runs 2007-Jan11 in Bumpers & Hurdles. Started in Hcaps off OR95 & down to OR76 before 1st place in May10. 2 later runs off OR80 then missing Jan11 to Nov12. Last run Dec26 so another brk to this run. ][ Update = won two on 3rd & 4th runs (9/1 & 6/1) after this off OR84 and OR92 then PU off OR100 and one place in small field OR97 and then Fell Dec runs ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/03/2013 Rambo Will J. R. Jenkins TylickiF KTNA 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"RAMBO WILL hasnít won for a while, but he hasnít raced in class 6 for even longer, and he might be able to spring a surprise off a favourable handicap mark in the 6f handicap at Kempton tonight (7.30). He probably did too much too soon two outings ago over todayís course and distance, kicking a couple of lengths clear 2f out but swallowed up in the closing stages. He was well backed next time over 5f, but the drop in trip didnít seem to suit, added to which he was held up and forced very wide, only just getting going in the final 100 yards. The return to 6f will suit, and he has been dropped a further 3lb, which takes him to a career-low 62 Ė he twice went close off 70 over this course and distance around this time last year. Freddie Tylicki goes to Kempton for this one ride, though he does ride a lot of John Jenkinsí horses after developing an excellent association with that yard last year, when his strike rate in handicaps was an exceptional 21.4%, with 18 wins from 84 rides. Rambo Will has a tricky draw in stall 9, but although there are a few prominent runners in the line-up, none of his rivals have made the running on either of their last two starts, so Tylicki might be able to take up a good position early on. 1pt win RAMBO WILL (14-1 general)"


Notes:-
Supp 7/1 on-course. CIR Tracked leader, ridden and every chance over 1f out, one pace inside final furlong opened 7/1. Btn ~4.5L



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/03/2013 Caldercruix H. J. Evans SilvaRD3 SWEL 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"CALDERCRUIX gave the impression he might be a bit of a Fibresand specialist in two starts last season and he can confirm that point now he returns to Southwell in the 7f handicap today (4.30). He ran really well on both starts at this time last year, both of which came over 6f, first chasing home two in-form Southwell veterans, and then beating another course specialist, Punching, in emphatic fashion in one of the fastest times ever seen over 6f at the track (fourth-fastest in the last 15 years, from over 1200 races). On both occasions he shaped as if 7f round here would suit, strongest at the finish. The concern is that he hasn't been in the best of form on turf/Polytrack since, but he ran well at Kempton two outings ago and returns to Southwell off a mark 3lb lower than for his demolition job a year ago. He'll need to get his act together at the stalls (withdrawn after bursting out of them when declared here in February), but he's very well handicapped on his return to this surface. 1pt win CALDERCRUIX (13-2 Coral, William Hill *BOG )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/03/2013 Royal Bajan J. G. Given TylickiF SWEL 5 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 5f handicap at Southwell (5.00), whilst it goes against the grain to oppose the in-form Aubrietia, she might find it harder to dominate over this trip against hardened Southwell 5f performers after again showing that she stays 6f well here last time (clear on home turn but looked to be struggling 1f out before pulling away again). ROYAL BAJAN looks a valid alternative; he was a most impressive winner under a hands-and-heels ride on his sole previous start here in a good time. He showed he was in good heart when winning at Wolverhampton two starts ago, and went off too fast at Lingfield last time (the three that disputed the lead filled the last three places). Royal Bajan is a son of Speightstown, whose progeny have form figures of 412111 at Southwell (from six different horses); he might be very hard to peg back again back on Fibresand. 1pt win ROYAL BAJAN (11-2 Totesport, Betfred, Betvictor, Paddy Power, Coral *BOG )"


Notes:-
Very Suspect use of Sire/Gng. ][ Ran well in Ldg pair in strong pace and BoPc overall. But, beaten 4.5L by Aubretia who was slightly off the pace and raced wide Cent-FrSd last 2f. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/03/2013 Cincinnati Kit S. C. Williams ProbertD WTON 5.1 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"I thought CINCINNATI KIT looked a much-improved performer last time switched to Wolverhampton and she might be able to continue the progress up in grade this evening (6.10). She had been well backed on her reappearance from a break for her back-to-form yard two outings ago, but seemed uncomfortable going round the right-handed bend, losing ground before making steady late progress. She seemed much happier going left-handed over this course and distance last time, suited by the strong pace and eased home under a hands-and-heels ride. It's possible Spencer made her look a bit better than she is that day, but there looks to be plenty of pace in this race again and it's worth noting that a lot of Cincinnati Kit's earlier efforts came when the stable was out of form, so there might be more to come from her. 1pt win CINCINNATI KIT (4-1 Boylesports, Betfred, Betvictor, Paddy Power, William Hill *BOG)"


Notes:-
CK a 4yo & ran 4 times as 2yo with last on Dec 20th off OR60. 4 runs Jun-Sep 2012 with 3 on turf and last at KTNA. Down to OR50 after that. Returned 6th Feb & 4th/9 at KTNA in a Class 7 then won a Class 7 off joint tw. Up to OR57 here and bw in a Class 5 with tw OR72 (inc pen). What EVIDENCE does he have of well-backed meaning anything?



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/03/2013 Flying Power J. R. Norton AspellP WTON 12.2 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"It's tempting to look at the result of the 1m4f handicap won by FLYING POWER (Wolverhampton 7.10) last time and assume he and the runner-up, who were first and second throughout, had the run of the race. The fractions weren't desperately slow, however, and the final time was pretty good, and the runner-up Illustrious Forest is a fair performer round Wolverhampton (and had been in fine form). Flying Power had taken a good hold that day and looked at the top of his game, and although he faces a variety of interesting opponents and is up in grade here, there don't appear to be many obvious front-runners, and he could again find himself in a good position to strike turning for home. 1pt win FLYING POWER (11-2 Stan James, Coral *BOG)"


Notes:-
Doesn't appear to be much reasoning here beyond an 'In Form' horse at an ok price. Class 2 race and FP 2nd tw on OR89 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/03/2013 Come On Blue Chip P. W. D'Arcy MurphyMJM5 WTON 8.6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"There are far fewer course specialists on the three Polytrack courses than there are on Fibresand, but I do think COME ON BLUE CHIP is one of them and he has to be of interest now he returns to Wolverhampton in the Lincoln Trial today (2.55). His improvement coincided with his switch to this track as a 2yo - he was very unlucky on his first start at the track, and then won his next three outings here, all by wide margins (at least four and a half lengths on each occasion). He has run only once at Wolverhampton since, when runner-up to Godolphin's Anjaz in a race where the field was well strung out behind him - he had Grey Mirage four lengths back in third and that rival (who is a non-runner) would have been a pound worse off here. His most recent effort at Lingfield is best ignored as they went no pace. Many of today's horses are also entered in the Lincoln, but Come On Blue Chip isn't, and given his record, there's a chance he has been prepared specifically for this race by a yard that is well up to getting one ready after a break; with one of last season's hottest apprentices on board, he looks very interesting returned to his favourite track. 2pts win COME ON BLUE CHIP (12-1 Paddy Power, Boylesports, Betvictor *BOG)"


Notes:-
A rare 2pts HT Sel.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/03/2013 Jarrow J. M. Bradley FanningJ WTON 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"The 6f handicap (4.05) is a terrific-looking contest, but I've been waiting for JARROW to run again on Polytrack following his demolition job over this course and distance a year ago. The concern is that his current trainer Milton Bradley doesn't have a good record with horses returning from a break (though plenty from the stable have run well first time out in 2013), but Jarrow himself has a very good record when fresh (that wide-margin win a year ago came after a six-month absence, and he was an impressive winner on his seasonal debut in 2010. His handicap mark is much higher here than on turf, but I think he's a better horse on this surface, and if he's fit enough to do himself justice, he should go well. There are innumerable dangers, and I'm not surprised to see the money for Harrison George, who recorded a good time figure two outings ago and was patently unsuited by the drop to 5f last time, though he is another returning from a break. 1pt win JARROW (12-1 Betfred, Betvictor, Stan James, Coral, William Hill *BOG)"


Notes:-
Fin Last. Tv SFre in 2R on RL. Losing Ground as soon as asked to make eff towards str. Started moving stiffly & SUnbal-1f and eased. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/03/2013 Trigger The Light Alan King HutchinsonW WWCK 29 S

HT Selection Text:-

"At Warwick today (4.00), TRIGGER THE LIGHT is likely to find the return to this level - and this track - much more to his liking than some of his recent races, and he can return to form back at the scene of some of his best performances. He has four wins, a second and a third from seven starts at Warwick, and he might be better carrying big weights against lesser opposition than trying to contest some of the bigger staying handicaps (finished a good third on his seasonal reappearance in a £25,000 race and was up against it in a very valuable Grade 3 handicap last time). He won this race last year and was second in it to Fine By Me (who was never beaten at Warwick) in 2010, and it may be this has been his principal target all season. 1pt win TRIGGER THE LIGHT (5-1 Ladbrokes )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/03/2013 Bach On Tow GardnerS FahyD TAUN 19 S

HT Selection Text:-

"There are one or two lightly-raced potential improvers in the extended 2m3f handicap hurdle at Taunton today (4.20), not least Meirigís Dream, who makes his debut for Philip Hobbs off a very low mark and could be thrown in if his jumping has improved, but if heís fit enough to do himself justice BACH ON TOW might make them all go a bit. His form figures suggest that he has produced only one good career performance under Rules, but he has actually produced a few fair efforts from the front in the last 12 months; after finishing second three times in points, he finished runner-up on his handicap debut at Fakenham, still upsides the eventual winner until shortly before the last, and he was also running another good race when falling two out at Worcester next time, still in contention. On the face of it he was disappointing when pulled up on his only subsequent start, which came on heavy ground at Exeter, but he actually travelled very well for a long way and probably paid for trying to keep pace with Ivorís King; the front pair had most of their rivals off the bridle by halfway and leaving the back straight the front two and Admiral Blake (who has won on heavy ground since) were a long way clear of the remainder. Bach On Tow faded very quickly then and was eventually pulled up, but he had probably burned himself out chasing Ivorís King (who won his next two starts and is now rated 124). If fitness isnít an issue following his absence, he could prove hard to peg back. 1pt win BACH ON TOW (12-1 Betfred, Boylesports, Coral, Totesport)"


Notes:-
BOT ran 3 times NH in 2011 with PU followed by 4th/5 & 7th/7. 2nd of 8 May 2012 off OR58 then latest two runs Aug.Oct off OR72. 151 day break. Not mentioned by HT but does the fact his only real form is off a break part of the reasoning? ][Slow Pace and BOT in rear then moved to 2nd into HS with Jk Qt. But prob a gd eg of one question I thought of for HT = Does he watch the Jk or the Hrs when he says a hrs tv well? If you just watched the Jk here you would have over-estimated how well hrs going. Jk looked like an Inx amateur in last 2F and never moved and as if staying on was and balanced was all he could manage. Which meant hrs had got thru to 2nd with his _effort_ and not 'cruised' into 2nd. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/03/2013 Cloudy Too SmithSJ HutchinsonW CHAM 24.5 S

HT Selection Text:-

"CLOUDY TOOís two recent wins have come in much weaker races than the one he contests in the JLT Specialty Chase (2.40), but he was very impressive on both occasions, and with the penny appearing to have dropped in terms of his jumping and the step back up in trip likely to suit, he might be able to continue his progress. His latest effort on heavy ground at Haydock was especially impressive, travelling best and storming away from runner-up Ohio Gold (who had chased home well-regarded novices Majala and Fargo on his two previous starts). Heís 9lb higher here and this is a much better race, but the step back up to 3m might bring about further improvement (won over 3m over hurdles and strong at the finish on his two recent wins over 2m4f). Having Wayne Hutchinson on board again is good news Ė whether by coincidence or not, Cloudy Tooís recent improvement coincided with the booking of two high-profile jockeys in Hutchinson and Timmy Murphy Ė and few horses will come into the race with such a progressive profile. 1pt win CLOUDY TOO (22-1 Bet Victor, 20-1 Stan James)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/03/2013 Our Mick McCainDM MaguireJM CHAM 24.5 S

HT Selection Text:-

"Iíd also definitely want OUR MICK on my side in this race. He produced a terrific effort when third in this race last year as a novice, especially as he went wide throughout, and he shaped as if he had returned at the top of his game over 2m5f here in January, always prominent and upsides eventual wide-margin winner Katenko when jumping left three out, cannoning into Katenko and unseating his rider. It was too early to say where he would have finished but he was clearly running a huge race, and connections decided to save him for the Festival thereafter. Heís only a pound higher than last year, and providing he doesnít get sucked into a pace duel (there are several prominent runners in the line-up), he should go well. 1pt win OUR MICK (7-1 Paddy Power, 13-2 Bet Victor, Coral)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/03/2013 The Druid's Nephew A. Turnell ScudamoreT CHAM 20.5 S

HT Selection Text:-

"THE DRUIDíS NEPHEW looks the pick of the weights in the Rewards4Racing Novicesí Handicap Chase (5.15). He didnít seem to get home over 3m two outings ago, but his two other starts at around this trip this season have both worked out extremely well. On his seasonal debut he went down by the minimum margin to current RSA Chase third favourite Hadrianís Approach, with Rolling Aces (now rated 153) third and Kapga De Cerisy (now rated 140) fourth. Last time he readily beat the Paul Nicholls-trained Grandioso, albeit receiving 7lb; the runner-up won his next start by 37 lengths and then won the Grade Two Pendil Novicesí chase at Kempton and is rated 145. In the light of that, The Druidís Nephewís mark of 135 looks extremely lenient, and there might be more improvement in him back on a left-handed track, as he has tended to jump left on right-handed tracks this season. He ran really well in the Albert Bartlett Novicesí Hurdle at the Festival last season and everything looks in place for a big run. 1pt win THE DRUIDíS NEPHEW (7-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/03/2013 Errigal Lad G. Woodward TuttyG7 NOTT 6.1 G

HT Selection Text:-

"ERRIGAL LAD was withdrawn after becoming unruly in the stalls when selected in this column last time, but most of what I wrote that day applies again today at Nottingham (2.30). His career form figures over todayís course and distance read 212 and he really caught the eye on his reappearance over 5f at this track, never able to land a blow but finishing really strongly. He improved significantly for his reappearance last year when pulling a long way clear of the progressive Prodigality (now rated 100) over this course and distance, and a repeat of that effort (runs off same mark here) would see him very hard to beat; todayís race should be run to suit, with plenty of prominent runners in the line-up. 1pt win ERRIGAL LAD (11-2 Betfred, Ladbrokes, Stan James*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/03/2013 Bermondsey Bob J. L. Spearing CatlinC NOTT 6.1 G

HT Selection Text:-

"In the second division of the same 6f handicap (3.00) BERMONDSEY BOB might be worth chancing despite not having shown much so far this year. He invariable needs his first couple of runs each season Ė his form figures on his first two runs of the season read 008004050000, whereas on his third run of the season his form figures read 19224. He ran in the same Salisbury race last time that he contested in each of the last two seasons and he might be able to bounce back here having dropped in the weights; his stable mate Clear Spring, who won third time out in 2012, bounced back to form on his third start last week when a good third having been beaten a long way on his first two starts. 1pt win BERMONDSEY BOB (12-1 Betfred, BetVictor, Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Drift 7/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/03/2013 Abbey Lane MullinsWP WalshR CHAM 21 GSS

HT Selection Text:-

"ABBEY LANE can continue the Willie Mullins teamís excellent start to the Cheltenham Festival in the Coral Cup (4.00). Heís an excellent advertisement for the potential benefits of a switch of stables, first improving when moved to Gordon Elliott back in 2010, but better than ever since joining Mullins before his penultimate start. After an encouraging debut for the yard at Fairyhouse on his first run for almost two years (when he shaped as if a stronger gallop would have suited), he ran out an emphatic winner of the valuable Boylesports.com Hurdle at Leopardstown; held up in mid-division, he coped with the drop to 2m remarkably well, forced five wide from approaching two out and left with a lot to do turning for home, but reeling in the leaders in the straight, his relative superiority slightly masked by the late surge of the runner-up. Heís a stone higher here, but thereís every chance there is more improvement in him for his current yard, especially back over further (only previous run over the minimum trip came back in 2010 on his second hurdles start, and has won over 3m), whilst any potential drying of the ground shouldnít be a problem given at one stage of his career he seemed better on decent ground. Heís eligible for a 100,000-euro bonus if he wins at Cheltenham, and with Walsh on board and his suitability for this kind of big-field scenario not in doubt, he looks the one to be on. Cheltenham 4.00 Abbey Lane 1 pt win"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/03/2013 Counsel D. McCain MaguireJM CHAM 15.5 GSS

HT Selection Text:-

"COUNSEL has been kept for the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.40) since his impressive win at Sedgefield in January and might take a bit of pegging back under prominent tactics. His trainer blamed riding tactics for his defeat in a Grade Two Hurdle at Doncaster on his penultimate outing, but that form looks very strong, and Counsel has been left on the same mark after his Sedgefield win, when he was always travelling comfortably. His jumping has been fast and accurate and he has been strong at the finish for his two wins, and he coped very well with the undulations at Sedgefield, which should be helpful round here (plenty of his rivals will not have run at such a track). I suspect he will be ridden much more prominently than at Doncaster, and if he attacks the hurdles as he did last time (jumped every single hurdle really well), he could be hard to catch. Cheltenham 4.40 Counsel 1 pt win"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/03/2013 Jetson J. Harrington PowerRM CHAM 24 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"Everything looks to be falling into place for JETSON and he looks worth backing in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham (2.05). He was one of the leading market fancies for this race last year but narrowly missed the cut. He handles soft going, but his trainer has always felt he is better on decent ground, a suggestion backed up by his form, with arguably his two best efforts coming away from testing ground, and although the ground definitely still seemed to be on the slow side yesterday, it might not be as soft as that he has often encountered in Ireland. The ground was almost certainly faster than the advertised soft when he was an impressive winner of a Pertemps qualifier last season on his first start over 3m (Timeform described the ground as good to soft and Raceform as good to firm), and it was good when he was a fine second under top weight in a valuable novicesí handicap at Fairyhouse on his next start, when he was ridden by a 7lb claimer who at the time hadnít ridden a winner over jumps. He started off over fences this season, but has run well over hurdles on his last two starts on ground that wouldnít have suited, first trying to give lumps of weight on heavy ground to a couple of smart chasers that were very well handicapped over hurdles, then making steady late progress in the Leopardstown qualifier for this race when last seen in December, shuffled back after a couple of sticky jumps in a race where it proved hard to come from behind. He still looks very fairly handicapped, has a very good record when fresh, and any further drying of the ground will be in his favour. 1pt win JETSON (14-1 bet365*, 12-1 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/03/2013 Casey Top WhitmoreL EnrightMA3am CHAM 21 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"Ballynagour is sure to be popular in the Byrne Group Plate (4.00) after his demolition job at Warwick, especially after third-placed Golden Chieftain romped home in the JLT Specialty Chase on Tuesday. He clearly has a leading chance, but is 20lb higher on what will probably be less testing ground and at a huge price Iíd rather side each-way with CASEY TOP. He ran a terrific race from the front under this claiming jockey on desperate ground in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November, taken on for the lead during the early stages but one of four horses clear turning for home and only three or four lengths behind the classy pair Al Ferof and Walkon jumping two out, eventually finishing fourth. His trainer, who has stated on more than one occasion that he feels the horse goes well fresh, said he would keep him off the track until the Festival, and he must be delighted to find him a pound lower here; that makes him one of those rare birds, an Irish-trained handicapper who is lower in this country than in Ireland (runs off 136 here, whereas he is rated 138 in Ireland). Heís well suited by racing prominently on an undulating track (ran another excellent race when runner-up in the Galway Plate in August off a 3lb lower mark), and whilst he might be vulnerable if there is a real handicap blot in the race, he looks well overpriced at his current odds. 1pt each-way CASEY TOP (33-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/03/2013 Romanesco ElliottG CarberryNam CHAM 25.5 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"ROMANESCO might be the one in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir (4.40). He had excuses for his latest effort when well beaten off a favourable mark over hurdles, reportedly hanging right throughout and found to have a respiratory tract infection after the race. He ran a cracker on his previous start in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown (a much more valuable race than this), staying on well from a long way back under Nina Carberry, who is on board again today; he was forced widest of all over the last half mile and also hit two out when starting to make progress. He was in the process of running really well on the Old Course here when falling at the last in a 3m handicap chase in October, having looked the likeliest winner from some way out. Seven or eight of his rivals made the running last time, so he should get the strong pace that appears to suit him here. His tendency to make mistakes remains a concern, but if his jumping holds up he can show himself to be still very fairly handicapped for his current yard, who had a winner on Wednesday. 1pt win ROMANESCO (11-1 Paddy Power*, Stan James*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/03/2013 Ifandbutwhynot D. O'Meara MurphyTJ CHAM 17 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"IFANDBUTWHYNOT gave David OíMeara his first Cheltenham victory in November and he can provide him with his first Festival win in the Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle (2.05). Iíve been following his progress since he was a most impressive bumper winner at Newcastle last season, and whilst there has been the odd hiccup along the way, he remains a really progressive horse judged on the evidence of two of his three runs this season, both of which came under todayís rider Timmy Murphy. The form of that Cheltenham win, when he was always travelling well, has worked out extremely well, with runner-up Tanerko Emery winning his next two starts and runner-up in the Imperial Cup off a 29lb higher mark last time; Ifandbutwhynot gave him 5lb that day, but will be receiving 6lb from him here. He was a disappointment next time, but the steady pace was almost certainly against him Ė heís a strong traveller who is best in a truly-run race, whilst his best form has also come on a left-handed course. He made no mistake at Musselburgh last time, always looking to have matters under control, and he is only 5lb higher here. He has plenty of form on testing ground but his trainer feels he might be even better on decent ground; either way, there should be no excuses on that score, and the return to a big field looks sure to suit. 1pt win IFANDBUTWHYNOT (11-1 bet365, Betfred, Bet Victor, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/03/2013 Bathwick Brave PipeD PowellB CHAM 20.5 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"The weather forecasts at the time of writing suggest plenty of rain will hit Cheltenham from around midday onwards. That might mean that the ground, which was still on the soft side of the new course yesterday, might get very testing by the time the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeysí Handicap (4.40), and if thatís the case BATHWICK BRAVE would suddenly become an interesting proposition each way. He hasnít always looked straightforward and the place part would make at least as much appeal as the win part of the bet given his record, but there is no doubt that he has improved for his current yard this season and, in particular, that he is very well suited by the mud. His effort when failing by only a short head to give 16lb to Master Of The Sea two outings ago at Aintree reads very well given that horseís subsequent soft-ground exploits, the race and the fractions in comparison with the class 2 handicap run on the same card clearly indicating both were miles better than their marks on that sort of ground. Bathwick Brave again ran very well when pulling a long way clear with Loose Chips at Kempton on Boxing Day, just outbattled after looking sure to win (matched at 1.03 in running). Iím not sure how well he will come up the hill, but if the ground does become testing his chances will improve massively; his sole win to date came on the sole occasion he was ridden by Brendan Powell, who has experienced the highs and lows of Cheltenham this week, his two rides on big-priced outsiders producing a win on Golden Chieftain and a crashing fall at the last when in third place on the ill-fated Matuhi. 1pt each-way BATHWICK BRAVE (33-1 Stan James, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/03/2013 Petit Robin HendersonNJ BoinvilleND7am CHAM 16.5 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"My original fancy for the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase (5.15) was Tanks For That, but the prospect of very soft ground by the end of the afternoon if the forecast is correct is offputting as all his bets form is away from testing going. Nicky Henderson has plenty of alternatives in a race that is always clearly going to be high on his agenda, and PETIT ROBIN looks overpriced. He isnít a plot horse by any means but he has seemed reinvigorated this year over hurdles, appearing to be especially well suited by give in the ground these days. He looked all over the winner of the valuable Ladbroke Hurdle on very deep ground at Ascot, three lengths clear at the last before being mugged by Cause Of Causes, and he almost certainly faced an impossible task when a very good fifth in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time, trying to give 10lb to Supreme Novicesí Hurdle runner-up My Tent or Yours and a stone to Cotton Mill, who is favourite to win the County Hurdle off a 5lb higher mark. He is 4lb lower here, and there is no reason to suppose he shouldnít be at least as effective over fences as over hurdles Ė after all, it was as a chaser that he made his name, runner-up in the Grade One Tingle Creek Chase over this course and distance two seasons ago, having also been third in the Champion Chase as a 6yo. Itís worth remembering he is still only ten, and he has some high-class form for a horse that will have only 11-05 on his back after the 7lb claim of Nico De Boinville, who is terrific value for his allowance (and has ridden the horse on his last three starts). 1pt each-way PETIT ROBIN (20-1 bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, Stan James, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/03/2013 Dubai Dynamo R. Carr McDonaldP LNGA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"DUBAI DYNAMO ran a remarkable race on his seasonal debut at Wolverhampton last week over an inadequate trip and looks to have a good chance back at a more suitable trip at Lingfield this afternoon (4.40). That reappearance came over 6f, and in a race that wasn't run at an especially strong gallop for the grade, but Dubai Dynamo finished best of all, shaping as if he had returned at the top of his game. He underperformed in this race last year having run in the same Wolverhampton contest on his reappearance, but he ended up racing prominently in last year's renewal in a race with little pace, and he's a better horse held up off a decent gallop. Hopefully Grey Mirage, who has led at a reasonable gallop on each of his last three starts, will do so again, with the possibility that Bronze Prince, who made all the running last time he ran here, will also try and make the running. His stable's horses seem more forward than has sometimes been the case at this time of year and Dubai Dynamo certainly gave the impression he had returned at the top of his game at Wolverhampton. 1pt win DUBAI DYNAMO (11-2 Boylesports, Betfred, William Hill *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/03/2013 York Glory K. A. Ryan CallanN LNGA 5 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Nothing went right for YORK GLORY in the Cleves Stakes at Lingfield last time and he can bounce back dropped to 5f in the Hever Sprint Stakes. He looked very unlucky not to win at Wolverhampton two outings ago, collared in the closing stages after kicking a long way clear and probably idling, and he didn't get the run of the race last time; held up off a steady pace and pulling hard, he was forced wide on the home turn and was the only horse to make up significant ground from off the pace. The drop to 5f might suit him more than some of his rivals (four of the front five in the market are dropping in trip here) and he can confirm himself one of the leading sprinters on the all-weather this winter. 1pt win YORK GLORY (5-1 Betvictor, Stan James, Coral, William Hill *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/03/2013 Balatina C. A. Dywer TurnerH LNGA 5 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"5f 3yo handicaps at this time of year tend to be very weak, so it's no surprise to see the unexposed The Manx Missile installed as favourite for the Lingfield 2.15 even though he beat an aggregate of only two horses home in his three starts last summer. Whilst it will be no surprise if he does show improved form here, BALATINA is another handicap debutante, and one who has shown definite signs of ability. She has travelled ok up to a point on all three starts in 7f maidens so far, giving the impression she might be more effective dropped to today's trip. However, what is even more interesting is that her three runs, which came in a three-week timespan last backend, all came in races also contested by stable mate Hannah's Turn. The latter was given a short break before being dropped in trip and sent handicapping, winning her first and third races back and finishing third in between. Balatina finished in front of Hannah's Turn on all three starts in maidens, and like her stable mate goes handicapping off a basement mark (in her case 47). This is a far weaker contest than those she has raced in to date and she might be up to making a winning handicap debut. 2pts win BALATINA (7-1 William Hill *BOG, 13-2 Stan James, Paddy Power, Bet365 *BOG)"


Notes:-
Ran 2 times as a 2yo. Back after Brk87 off OR47. The Manx Missile off OR60 & Brk249. ][ Op 7/2 on crs. Seemed like a good tip, alw Fr Rnk and looked winner until caught on line.]



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/03/2013 Young Sparky RobsonP McGrathR CARL 17 HVS

HT Selection Text:-

"Handicap debutants Upswing and YOUNG SPARKY look the two to concentrate on in the 2m1f handicap hurdle at Carlisle (4.30), with preference for the latter. Young Sparky will be making his debut for Pauline Robson, whose stable star Rival D'estruval ran so well in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, and he shaped with promise on occasions for his previous stable, especially on his second start when going well for a long way at Hexham on the most testing ground he has raced on so far. His trainer has a terrific record with horses returning from a long absence (23-78, +42pts with horses returning from more than 100 days off), and the stable went close with a similar type (switcher/handicap debutant returning from a long absence) in Scimon Templar last month. 1pt win YOUNG SPARKY (5-1 Stan James, Betvictor *BOG, 9-2 Betfred, Coral *BOG **)"


Notes:-
Drifted 3/1 on crs. Fin 4th/5 with 3 NRs beaten 36L by other hcap FT in Upswing. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/03/2013 Grand Jipeck I. W. McInnes MathersP WTON 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"GRAND JIPECK finished an excellent fourth on his all-weather debut and a repetition of that effort would see him very hard to beat in an ordinary-looking 6f handicap at Wolverhampton today (4.00). He seemed to be progressing towards the end of his two-year-old career, but might be better on Polytrack judged on that reappearance, in which four horses pulled well clear of the remainder. The time of the race was very good, and a reproduction of that effort would make him very hard to beat here; most of his opponentsí form here falls some way short of that effort, and market rival Baltic Prince wouldnít be certain to reproduce his recent Southwell effort back on Polytrack, even if his sireís excellent start on Fibresand (6 wins from 12 runs compared to 5 wins from 83 runs on Polytrack) has come from just two individual horses. 1pt win GRAND JIPECK (3/1 Stan James*)"


Notes:-
GJ in 3yo Hcap and 8TO off OR55 & joint tw. 6 runs at 2yo then returned to run 4th 10 days before this run. Prob only 2 prev winners in rc who are off OR49/50. Nothing in much recent form. ][ Baltic Prince won as jnt-fav with GJ ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/03/2013 Hawsie's Dream A. Bailey MackayN SWEL 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"HAWSIE'S DREAM is very much bred to appreciate Southwell and might be worth chancing against the hot favourite in the 6f handicap this afternoon (3.20). Her form to date is fairly modest, but she did enough to suggest she was at least going the right way when runner-up to Need You Now, and whilst that form is moderate (the winner improved markedly later in the season on heavy ground fitted with headgear), it did show she has some ability. She shaped as if 5f was inadequate on her return from a break at Lingfield on Saturday and she looks much more interesting back at 6f with headgear fitted, but it's her pedigree that makes her of interest here. She's by Dubawi, who has a terrific record at Southwell overall, but especially with horses having their first start here; the sire's record with Fibresand debutants is 10 winners from 28 runs (35.7% strike rate) and a profit of 24 pts, the SPs of those debutants suggesting the expected number of wins should be only a little over 5. Hawsie's Dream is also a half-sister to arguably the all-weather horse of the year Aubrietia, who if anything has taken her form to a new level on Fibresand on her last three starts. The problem is the favourite Hannah's Turn has looked very solid at this track, with both her wins working out extremely well (albeit the form has been franked on Polytrack rather than Fibresand), but there might be much more to come from Hawsie's Dream on this surface. 1pt win HAWSIE'S DREAM (5-1 Betfred, 9-2 Bet365*, Bet Victor*, Paddy Power*, Stan James*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/03/2013 Burgoyne H. Morrison HavlinR SWEL 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Hughie Morrison is always a trainer to note at Southwell, and BURGOYNE, his only runner today, might be able to leave his recent debut effort at Kempton well behind in the 1m maiden (2.50). He was a 33-1 chance, fitted with blinkers (wears a hood today), slowly away and green at Kempton, but approaching the cutaway he briefly appeared to be going as well as anything else before fading as if the run were needed. He has a US pedigree - his sire, Officer, was a Grade One winner on dirt and started favourite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (has had 1 winner from 4 individual runners on Fibresand to date), and Burgoyne himself is a half-brother to multiple US dirt winner She's Copacetic. Morrison's Southwell statistics are impressive almost however you look at them, but in particular, his horses having their first start at the track are 28-113 (+65pts) since 2000, with an actual/expected figure of 1.24 , and his horses having their second start in maidens at Southwell having raced elsewhere on their first start are 7-17 (+51pts after two big-priced winners). The problem is that favourite Excellent Puck was second in a race run in an extremely good time on his debut, and if he reproduces that he will be very hard to beat, but that's not guaranteed (sire has had very few runners on Fibresand to date) and Burgoyne looks worth chancing against him. 1pt win BURGOYNE (15-2 Bet365*, Bet Victor* & 7-1 Coral*, Stanjames*)"


Notes:-
Burgoyne made debut 20 days before at KTNA. Cost trnr 35k as 1yo TAT. [Int to compare this SWELST with other of this type on same day. This one in a maiden with the TRNR (who has a Fibresand gallop) & excellent record here to support the 'Sire' suspect bit. This one also a possible improver for a solid trnr against a fav on 4TO in mdn after 2 x 2nds. Other on day an OR40s filly in a hcap with just a sire + = weaker and the 1/2Fv already proven with win on surface.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/03/2013 Princess Willow J. E. Long MilczarekK KTNA 11 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"PRINCESS WILLOW is still a maiden, but showed enough before her recent break to suggest she could take a small race , and the 0-55 1m3fhandicap at Kempton tonight (7.45) might be suitable if she returns in the same form as when last seen. She improved when stepped up to 1m2f on her last three outings last year, but twice ran into some useful opposition in maidens and pulled clear along with two in-form horses in a classified event. Her final start was perhaps her best effort to date, unsurprisingly no match for Harry Buckle (who has won three times since and is now rated 87) or Syncopate (who won a maiden next time), but clear of three horses rated in the 60s. She remains fairly treated off a mark of 52, and her stable has had a few horses run well on their return from a short break over the last couple of months. Thane Of Cawdor, whose last two efforts both represent strong form for the grade, looks the biggest danger. 1pt win PRINCESS WILLOW (12-1 general*)"


Notes:-
Supp 8/1 oc. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/03/2013 Flashlight M. Johnston FanningJ KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 7f 3yo handicap at Kempton (8.15), itís not surprising to see Mystical Sapphire a warm favourite, as she smoothly beat Ashamaly when last seen in January, and the winner, who was odds-on favourite that day, won his next two starts and wasnít beaten far in a Listed race last time. However, that was a steadily-run affair and at the prices Iíd rather side with FLASHLIGHT. He had some very fair form in maidens on turf last year, and took well to Polytrack (as do so many by his sire Shamardal) when easily winning a weak maiden at Wolverhampton. The time was good despite the winner not being hard pressed, and he shaped as if he was only just finding his stride by the finish, giving the impression the return to this trip would suit. This is clearly a warm little event, but Flashlight, who runs here in preference to a class 3 event at the Lincoln meeting, might have more improvement in him on this surface. 1pt win FLASHLIGHT (3-1 Boylesports, 11-4 bet365, Betfred, Coral, Paddy Power*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/03/2013 Mcbirney P. W. D'Arcy PrinceP7 KTNA 12 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"MCBIRNEY has generally shaped as if in good form this winter, with excuses for his two poor efforts, including his latest one, and he should go well in the 1m4f handicap at Kempton this evening (7.30). He flopped at Southwell last time, but he has been beaten a long way on all three starts there, and whilst the previous two efforts were over 6f early in his career, the fact that he is by Danehill Dancer (whose progeny have a very poor record on Fibresand) suggests he simply doesnít handle the track. His previous effort over todayís course and distance reads especially well, even on a bare reading of the form; he beat Wordiness, who has won all three subsequent starts and is now rated 17lb higher, by two lengths, with the in-form favourite Sweet Liberta back in third, but that win was all the more meritorious because he was hampered and shuffled back to last place just after the home turn. Heís only 4lb higher here, and his other poor effort this winter is also easy to forgive (got no cover in an amateur ridersí race). The concern here might be the pace, as there is no obvious frontrunner, but providing the race isnít run at a farcical tempo Mcbirney should prove hard to beat back on Polytrack. 1pt win MCBIRNEY (7-2 general with B.O.G firms)"


Notes:-
Only one Tip on day and this one Fav by 10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/03/2013 Defence Council M. E. Brittain FentimanD DONC 7 SHV

HT Selection Text:-

"DEFENCE COUNCIL has an excellent record when fresh, and although he finds winning tough, he again looks worth each-way support in the first division of the 7f handicap at Doncaster today (4.10). He was second (beaten a neck) at 10-1 on his racecourse debut in 2010, was again second (beaten a head) at 14-1 on his seasonal debut in 2011, again ran well when runner-up at 25-1 after a 45-day break in June 2011, and yet again finished second after a four-month break at Wolverhampton in November of that year. He was third in this race when an each-way selection last year on his seasonal reappearance, and is a similar price today; trip and ground should be no problem and as well as his good reappearance effort here last year, he also shaped well over 6f at this track when runner-up to subsequent Stewardsí Sprint winner Johannes. 1pt each-way DEFENCE COUNCIL (12-1 Coral, Bet Victor, Stan James*)"


Notes:-
1st Day of Flat & Dire warnings of snow off the mark with heavy precipiation actually much further West. But meant 3 x Inspections and NRs so HT put up his selection late & noted that NRs & inspections elsewhere had caused him to 're-think' ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/03/2013 Dubai Hills/Mataaj SWEL STD

HT Selection Text:-

""


Notes:-
EW Double Placeholder added during Jan 2014 Work ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
23/03/2013 Dubai Hills B. Smart EavesT SWEL 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Southwell keeps the show on the road today, and features a terrific 0-95 1m handicap (3.10), the kind of race I've been urging for all season. DUBAI HILLS is the best horse I've seen on Fibresand, and at odds against he has to be the selection, even though I have plenty of respect for Frontier Fighter, who himself recorded a very fast time figure when winning here two outings ago. Dubai Hills romped home by five lengths against a string of course specialists last time, and has won his five starts here at 7f or a mile by an aggregate of 31 lengths. I thought he might be a shade off odds on here, so at anything over evens he looks value. 1pt win DUBAI HILLS (13-8 general *BOG)"


Notes:-
Snow nationwide so all turf meetings off. SWEL an extra card hastily put together Wed/Thu bef this Sat Date with forecast dire. SWEL trending on Twitter around 09



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
23/03/2013 Mataajir D. Shaw McCleanA7 SWEL 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"MATAAJIR (3.45) wasn't suited by 6f when he last ran here, but he would be very hard to beat if anywhere close to his best previous efforts over 7f or a mile, and he's back up in trip here. He was soon behind and unable to land a blow in that 6f race here three outings ago, and he didn't run badly at Kempton last time, again unsuited by 6f but staying on late. His three efforts from last winter stand out in this company and although he's favourite here, his best form at this track would entitle him to be a fair bit shorter. 1pt win MATAAJIR (5-2 general *BOG)"


Notes:-
Snow nationwide so all turf meetings off. SWEL an extra card hastily put together Wed/Thu bef this Sat Date with forecast dire. SWEL trending on Twitter around 09



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/03/2013 Free Spin T. D. Barron GibbonsG LNGA 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"The 6f handicap at Lingfield today looks fiercely competitive, but I'm fairly sure there's more to come from FREE SPIN after two extremely promising runs for David Barron, and he looks the best-handicapped horse in the race. He raced over further for his previous trainer in Ireland, but has not looked short of pace in his two starts for his current yard. He was worn down by Light From Mars (won next time) on his debut for the yard over 7f at Kempton, that form looking very solid with Atlantis Crossing back in third, and he then was palpably unsuited by the very steady early pace dropped to 6f last time, still shaping as if ahead of his mark by storming home in the closing stages, getting going too late but still finishing second to Crew Cut, who won again next time. His tricky draw in stall 1 is a concern, but I suspect Free Spin will have a bit more use made of him this time unless there is a strong early pace, and he runs off the same mark here; most of the field here don't have much in hand of the handicapper, but he could be the exception. 1pt win FREE SPIN (7-2 Stan James *BOG, 100-30 Bet365 *BOG, 3-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
Class 4 race but solid group of 12 from 0R85 down to OR75. ][ Drifted from 6/4 oc. Race played out like a close knit hcap & FSpin ev ch (ins not CS excepted) & looked to be on just an OK OR in a strong group of AW horses. 5th but btn 1L. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
25/03/2013 Sannibel McPhersonG TartR5 LNGA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Todayís sole card at Lingfield looks fairly uninspiring, but in the 7f handicap (3.10), SANNIBEL might be able to resume her progress back on Polytrack. It has to be said here are a couple of definite negatives to her chance here. Firstly, this is a much tougher race than those she has been contesting on Polytrack, not only a higher grade but featuring several in-form horses. Secondly, she has been getting going a bit too late, and there might not be enough pace on for her here (though perhaps she will be ridden more prominently here). However, she still looks a bit overpriced this morning, perhaps as a result of her recent tailed-off effort on Fibresand (where she was possibly amiss judging on her riderís body language, but in any case it often pays to ignore a poor effort on that surface from a Polytrack horse). She looked a bit unlucky not to win on both of her previous starts since upped in trip to 7f, finishing with a flourish on each occasion under Robert Tart, who is back on board today. Elusive Hawk will win this with something to spare if repeating the form of his Kempton romp, but thatís not guaranteed in the second-time headgear over a different trip with possibly a different pace scenario, and although Sannibel will need a career-best effort to win this, she did look to be progressing really well on Polytrack prior to that Southwell flop."


Notes:-
LNGA only mtg left again bec of Snow. ][ Note how piece starts with a 'Global Caveat' again = see how SR is when these appear? ][ Class 5 with the tw a 9yo off OR71 with a 6lbs pen. Sannibel a 5yo jnt bw off OR61. Has won 1-16 career in a Class 6 5f WTON OR62 on Feb 2012. Looks a weak bit of reasoning & A5 prob as much the reason for the selection as anything (Tart currently THE App making his name winter AW) ][ CIR = Held up, headway to track leader over 1f out, every chance 1f out, weakened inside final furlong = NStay? 20/1 also held up & EHawk 3rd. ][ Glad I watched the Replay. Sannibel Stall 2 & horse in 1 fractious in stalls & hooded. Handler whipped Hood off sl after gates started to open horse popped out then seemed to drop neck & shoulder to get jk off. This slowed pace of race for first 2f as jks in lead felt loose hrs trying to barge thru and trying to give it room. Loose hrs ended up running Fr Rnk on rail with leader outside him. On dwnhill loose hrs got to lead on rail and carried 2 horses outside it out of the race on bend to str. Sannibel running 2nd rank bhd loose hrs and left with simple job to get to lead ins-1.5f but headed-1f and fading from there. Definite non stay. ][ Ran 3 times after this and poor efforts and OR slowly down to OR59 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
27/03/2013 Apache Rising B. Smart EavesT SWEL 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 1m 3yo handicap, APACHE RISING (4.55) looks to have solid claims. He won his two first starts here, both over 7f, and shaped well stepped up to a mile last time, even though he finished only third of four; he was rather forced across to the inside rail by his rivals, still battling on well, and the time of that race was good, over a second quicker than that recorded by the older horses (which included several grizzled Fibresand specialists) later on the card. Luv U Whatever has an obvious chance after pulling clear with yesterdayís impressive winner Ivy Port last time, and collateral form students will be pointing to the line through Gebayl (well held behind Ivy Port yesterday but beaten a nose by Apache Rising earlier), but the evidence of the clock Ė which Iíd trust much more than collateral form, especially round here - suggests thereís not much between the two market leaders and at the prices Iíd rather side with Apache Rising. 1pt win APACHE RISING (100-30 Stan James, 3-1 general with BOG firms*)"


Notes:-
Beat 11/8f Luv U Whatever by 6L ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
27/03/2013 Ace Master S. R. Bowring CoumbeM3 SWEL 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"ACE MASTER recorded his first win away from Southwell last time, which bodes well for his return to Fibresand in the 6f handicap (4.20). His best form at Southwell is probably over 7f (though he has won over 5f here), but itís worth noting he has been very much sharpened up since fitted with blinkers, blasting off into a clear lead on his last two starts over 7f. This is his track, and this will be the first time he has run here in headgear. The in-form Elusive Hawk is the obvious danger, especially as he has plenty of form round here, though heís probably priced about right given the lack of experience of his promising apprentice (only one winner to date). 1pt win ACE MASTER (10-1 bet365, Coral, Stan James)"


Notes:-
Odd Mkt 10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
28/03/2013 Hallstatt J. Mackie GibbonG WTON 16.5 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"HALLSTATT is on a very long losing run, but he should come on for his recent reappearance and still looks distinctly overpriced back up in trip in the 2m handicap at Wolverhampton today (3.15). That reappearance effort was not without encouragement given it was over a trip short of his best, leading around half a mile out and looking as likely a winner as any entering the straight, not given anything like a hard time once headed and eased in the final 100 yards when his chance had gone. His two most recent efforts at this track both read extremely well, pulling clear with Veloce on the first occasion and Fade To Grey in the second occasion, and those two pieces of form were made to look very strong when that duo finished first and second in a very good time at Kempton next time. Graham Gibbons has been a very positive jockey booking for the yard this year (form figures 122712321 in 2013, whereas the yardís from figures for other jockeys are 695356474863), and back at what looks his best trip, Hallstatt could go well at decent odds. Mcbirney might be the biggest danger given the ease of his Kempton win, but he has to prove himself as effective at this trip. 1pt win HALLSTATT (16-1 Stan James, Victor Chandler, 14-1 general)"


Notes:-
Opened 15/2 oc. ][ Led for 12+F then headed to bnd and last by erl in str & eased. Like a non stayer. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
28/03/2013 Masterful Act A. J. McCabe MaguireJM SWEL 16 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"There are some classy hurdlers and chasers in the third race on Southwellís bumpers-for-jumpers card (3.30), but I think theyíll all have to go some to outdo the established Fibresand form of MASTERFUL ACT. He has progressed with each run on the surface, and his time figure was exceptional when demolishing some fair Fibresand rivals despite being eased down in the final furlong (out of his grade and probably unsuited by the ground in the Doncaster Shield last time). Itís very difficult to assess how that will match up to the classy NH horses, but he is very much on ďhomeĒ territory here, as youíd expect from one with his pedigree, and Iíd always rather side with proven form on the surface than classy form elsewhere. 2pts win MASTERFUL ACT (5-2 Boylesports, 9-4 Betfred, BetVictor, Coral, Paddy Power, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
** NOTE = 2pts Win Selection ][ Opened 6/4 oc. Led on inside rail. Upped pace final bend and 4-5Clear to Str and pulled further clear to line with jk fully active having not bothered to look behind. Won by 16L. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
30/03/2013 Tepmokea E. M. Burke KellySW KTNA 11 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"TEPMOKEA is a thoroughly exposed handicapper on turf, but he's quite lightly raced on Polytrack and he's worth the chance to confirm the suggestion that his recent good effort at Lingfield was no fluke in the Rosebery Handicap at Kempton today (2.55). That race came in the Listed Winter Derby Trial, and whilst he never landed a blow at the classy Planteur or Miblish, he stayed on in taking style to finish third, a long way clear of some established Polytrack performers, including Tinshu (who was beaten only two lengths in the Winter Derby itself last time). Planteur runs in the Dubai World Cup this evening and Miblish and Tinshu run in the Listed Magnolia Stakes at Kempton, whereas Tepmokea runs in a handicap; admittedly it's one of the hottest all-weather handicaps of the season, and he has been put up 5lb for that Lingfield effort, but the time figure certainly backs up that run (the winner broke the track record by 0.43 seconds, although it was broken again in the Winter Derby). Moreover, Tepmokea should definitely be suited by the extra furlong - his best turf form probably came at around 1m4f but this will be the first time he has tackled beyond 1m2f on Polytrack. There are no shortage of dangers, notably Spifer, who was patently unsuited by the steady pace last time, but at this morning's prices Tepmokea looks the value. 1pt win TEPMOKEA (16-1 Coral *BOG, 14-1 Bet365, Betvictor *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
30/03/2013 Bancnuanaheireann M. Appleby MullenA DONC 8 S

HT Selection Text:-

"BANCNUANAHEIREANN makes each-way appeal in the Lincoln (Doncaster 3.05). He's a big-priced outsider today, but that was also the case when he produced his two best performances last season, and it may not be a coincidence that both came in big fields. He looked very unlucky not to win when 50-1 on his first run for Mick Appleby at Goodwood in July, getting no sort of run yet beaten only narrowly, and he ran very well (again at 50-1) when fourth in the Cambridgeshire off the same mark as today. He also ran much better than the result (one of my eyecatchers on the Form Factor) when last seen on the all-weather, patently unsuited by the lack of pace and badly hampered when trying to launch a challenge a furlong out, finishing with plenty of running in him. The concern is the ground as his best efforts have come away from the mud, but it seems unlikely the ground will be anywhere near as bad as would have been the case at the abandoned meeting a week ago, and Bannuanaherieann appeals as the type to pop up in one of these big-field handicaps this season. 1pt each way BANCNUANAHEIREANN (33-1 Coral, Boylesports, 28-1 Stan James, William Hill - all *BOG"


Notes:-
** NOTE 1pt EW = 2pt bet = but is it really or is he not allowed a 0.5 EW. ][ Also an Eye ][ Opened 25/1 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
31/03/2013 Angel Gabrial I. Williams HamiltonA EDIN 14 GSS

HT Selection Text:-

"ANGEL GABRIAL is the interesting one from a long-term perspective in the Musselburgh Gold Cup today (3.50) and he looks worth chancing despite concerns about the ground. He spent most of last season racing over 1m2f, winning twice, but always gave the impression he would be better over further, perhaps kept to that trip for so long only because of his tendency to race keenly. He was a big eyecatcher on his penultimate start of the season in a hugely valuable and competitive class 2 1m4f handicap, making up lots of ground from the rear despite an interrupted passage, and he didn't get the run of the race in another warm 3yo handicap on his final start at Newmarket, held up and wide on a day when it paid to be prominent and close to the far rail. He needs to prove himself at the trip as well as on the ground, but there might actually be more improvement to come at this sort of distance if he settles; whatever he does today there's likely to be a good handicap in him, but at this morning;'s prices he looks worth chancing here. 1pt win ANGEL GABRIAL (9-1 William Hill, 8-1 Coral, Bet365, Betvictor *BOG)"


Notes:-
Op 7/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
31/03/2013 Dream Walker I. W. McInnes SwiftD EDIN 7.1 GSS

HT Selection Text:-

"The times at Musselburgh yesterday suggested the ground remained very much on the testing side, and it was interesting that the Ian McInnes-trained mudlark Top Notch Tonto ran really well in the face of what time will almost certainly prove was a very stiff task giving weight away in a very hot 3yo handicap. McInnes' stable hasn't had a winner for quite a while, but at double-figure odds I'm prepared to overlook that with regard to DREAM WALKER in the 7f handicap at Musselburgh (2.50). He has a couple of things in his favour here; he handles testing ground very well, and he absolutely bolted up on his first start last year, when seemingly unfancied, judged on his SP anyway. That was off a mark of just 50, and over 6f, but he was runner-up four times off a mark of 64 over 7f, so he must have a chance here on ground that will suit running off 61. 1pt win DREAM WALKER (14-1 William Hill, Betvictor *BOG, 12-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
FTO Brk164 off OR61 ][ Op 8/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/04/2013 Royal Reyah W. S. Kittow SweeneyD WWCK 6 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"ROYAL REYAH goes well with give in the ground, ran a cracker on his seasonal reappearance last year, and has dropped to a handy mark, so he looks interesting in the 6f handicap at Warwick today (2.50). He was just caught by course specialist Fanrouge last year on his seasonal debut, but after running well next time he rather lost his way thereafter; the upside is that he returns from a very favourable mark of 70. His best form has come with give in the ground and his trainer nearly always has one or two ready to do themselves justice at the start of the season. 1pt win ROYAL REYAH (8-1 Stan James, Bet365 *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/04/2013 Guilded Spirit W. S. Kittow SweeneyD WWCK 7 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"Stuart Kittow's other runner, GUILDED SPIRIT, was a huge eyecatcher on his second start last year and might be able to turn over the two apparent form horses in the 7f maiden (3.50). Guilded Spirit travelled strongly towards the rear on that second start over the extended mile at Nottingham, making good headway up the straight but never landing any sort of a blow at the wide-margin winner Mister Impatience, still shaping well in third. That form looks much better in the light of Mister Impatience's demolition job at Doncaster on his reappearance (where he looked better than a handicapper), and Guilded Spirit's rivals might be vulnerable; Mysterial has been a beaten favourite on all four outings and connections now reach for blinkers, whilst Right Touch didn't really progress with racing last year, though the ground may have been too lively for him on his second and third starts. Kittow had three winners from his first six turf runners in 2012, and his first two turf runners in 2010 both won, and he might have his team ready to go again this year. 1pt win GUILDED SPIRIT (100-30 Paddy Power *BOG, 3-1 Bet365, Boylesports, Stan James *BOG)"


Notes:-
Another Day when both Tips linked. In This case both from same Trnr ][ 9/4 fcast by 11



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
02/04/2013 Bentley B. P. J. Baugh TartR5 SWEL 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"By class 6 standards, the 1m handicap that closes Southwellís card (5.20) is quite an interesting race, as it features some established, if modest Fibresand performers against a couple of newcomers to the surface. Beauchamp Xerxes romped home in a very good time at Lingfield last time and represents a trainer/jockey combination that has won its last five races (and seven of its last ten); if he runs to the same level heíll win again here, but thatís not certain given his sire Compton Admiral has yet to sire a winner on Fibresand (only 19 runners, but all bar two have been beaten at least 5 lengths and 14 of the 19 were beaten at least ten lengths). Slew Too is another interesting runner, as she is thrown in on her debut form and her trainer James Given has scored with six of his last eight Fibresand debutants, but she has a tricky draw in stall 1 for a horse making her Southwell debut. Preference is for the more prosaic claims of BENTLEY. His limitations are well established, but he has plenty of solid form round here (including off much higher marks), and after having no chance against a thrown-in rival three outings ago here (clear of the remainder in second), he ran much better than the bare result suggests two outings ago over 7f; he was forced wide from his high draw and lost his position as his rider tried to tuck in, and found himself a long way back entering the straight. He made up a huge amount of ground by track standards but couldnít quite reel in the winner. He was too keen back on Polytrack last time, but a mile round here suits ideally and unless one of the Southwell newcomers takes well to the surface he should go very close with Robert Tart again on board 1pt win BENTLEY (15-2 Betfred, BetVictor, Boylesports, Coral*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
02/04/2013 Divine Pamina J. R. Boyle HughesR KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Kempton (4.30) DIVINE PAMINA looks interesting despite her lack of a recent run. After finishing third on her Polytrack debut, she finished a close fifth over this course and distance when last seen, taking a while to pick up having travelled well but not getting the clearest of passages and finishing with running in her. That form has been well advertised since Ė the winner, Danaís Present, is now rated a stone higher after winning twice since, the fourth, Tigertoo, won a handicap easily just five days after, and the seventh and ninth, Admiralty and Sandy Lane, have both won twice since and are now rated 10lb higher. Divine Pamina might have plenty more to come after just six career starts and Jim Boyle has been going quite well since returning from his enforced absence, whilst Richard Hughes is an encouraging jockey booking. 1pt win DIVINE PAMINA (10-1 Stan James, 9-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/04/2013 Idle Curiosity J. R. Boyle TurnerH KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"IDLE CURIOSITY (8.00 Kempton) caught the eye at Lingfield last time on her return from a break and might be able to continue Jim Boyleís good run. She didnít show much in three starts as a 2yo, tending to race too keenly, and again showed signs of inexperience at Lingfield, once again taking a good hold, but also failing to handle the final bend and forfeiting any chance she had by running very wide. She finished with a flourish, gaining four or five lengths on most of her rivals in the final furlong, giving the impression the step up to 7f should suit. She has a handy draw to help her settle and Hayley Turner takes over from a 5lb claimer. Sheíll need to improve, as the bare form of the Lingfield race is very moderate, but she might be able to do so up in trip and with her stable in excellent form 1pt win IDLE CURIOSITY (9-2 bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Op 5/2 oc ][ Another e.g of Trainers being used for Selections close together, pevious day and this one in this case ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/04/2013 Piceno S. P. J. Dixon CrayB3 SWEL 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"The 7f handicap at Southwell today (5.20) looks wide open despite the small field, with all six runners having a chance. PICENO isnít a confident choice as he isnít especially consistent and hasnít been at his best lately, but I reckon four of his ten performances at this track since the start of 2012 would be good enough to win this race, and that makes his odds this morning look reasonable enough. Arguably his best performances here have come over 7f even though his sole win at the track came over a mile, and he ran well on his most recent start over that trip when third in February (closely matched with Hellbender on that form, and had Copperwood behind him over a mile last time he ran here). 1pt win PICENO (7-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
04/04/2013 Stagecoach Pearl SmithSJ ManiaR AINT 16 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"STAGECOACH PEARL is a decent-ground 2m chaser, and he looks overpriced in the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree today (4.15) even though he is unlikely to gain an easy lead in this race. Heís a hard horse to peg back under the right conditions, and he has taken really well to this track both times he has raced here. Back in October 2010 he was a wide-margin winner over todayís course and distance, and on his second visit to Aintree he ran a terrific race for a long way in the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase, a 2m4f handicap; he disputed the lead at a strong pace with Mad Max, and was clear with eventual winner For Non Stop three out before his stamina gave way, still hanging on to third. The winner is a classy horse on his day (Grade 1 winner last season and third in this seasonís Ryanair Chase), and if the return to decent ground brings Stagecoach Pearl back to that sort of form, he would make them all go here, running off an 8lb lower mark after three below-par efforts on soft ground. 1pt each-way STAGECOACH PEARL (50-1 Ladbrokes, 40-1 William Hill*)"


Notes:-
UR = CIR Prominent, hit 4 out, soon ridden, lost place before next, well beaten when mistake and unseated rider last ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
04/04/2013 Lienosus E. Williams MoloneyP AINT 24 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 3m handicap hurdle (5.25) LIENOSUS looks the interesting one. A dual point to point winner, he shaped really well on his debut under Rules when third in the Persian War Novicesí Hurdle at Chepstow, coming with a promising run before hitting three out, still beaten only just over eight lengths in third. He then finished a good second over what was almost certainly an inadequate trip in a Haydock Listed race next time before getting off the mark without too much fuss at Fontwell last time. He gives the impression the step up in trip will suit and he could be very well handicapped off a mark of just 131 (also entered for the Sefton, the Grade 1 3m novicesí hurdle tomorrow). Jetson will appreciate the decent ground and looks the biggest danger. 1pt win LIENOSUS (8-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
8/1 co fav ][ CIR = Mid-division, towards rear when mistake 5th, fell 9th ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/04/2013 Regal D'Estruval NewlandRDP TreadwellL AINT 21.5 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"The Fox Huntersí Chase yesterday showed just what a different test the National fences at Aintree remain in comparison to park fences, and in the Topham Trophy (3.40) REGAL DíESTRUVAL looks the type to take to the fences and run a big race at huge odds. Heís a horse who has rather lost his way over the last year, but most of his races during that time have taken place on soft or heavy going. The last time he encountered decent ground he split the decent pair Shot From The Hip and Zaarito, having led them a merry dance for much of the way, and itís interesting that he had been underperforming on softish ground prior to that good run. Regal DíEstruvalís big strength has always been his fast jumping of fences, and whilst itís never easy to predict whether a horse will take to these unique fences, he could be just the type to have his interest perked up, especially with the going unlikely to be too bad. He didnít show much on his recent debut for his current yard, but that was over hurdles (where he has never really shone) and on bad ground, and moreover his trainer has s erious track record in terms of revitalising ex-Irish horses; Bobowen, Smalib Monterg, Royale Knight, Bobowen and Ahyaknowyourself have all progressed tremendously in the last 12 months since joining Dr Richard Newland from Ireland. 1pt each-way REGAL DíESTRUVAL (50-1 bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports, Stan James#)"


Notes:-
** NOTE = 1pt EW = 2pt Bet ][ Ran 3 more times to Mid-May and unplaced each time with OR Down from 127 to 120 when 8th/9 on the last of those runs, a '1001 day Turkey' ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/04/2013 Be My Present LongsdonCE FehilyN AINT 17 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"The mares' bumper (5.25) is an interesting race from a betting point of view, as much of the form on which the market is based has come on bad ground. My two against the field are BE MY PRESENT and ABIGAIL LYNCH, both of whose trainers have stated they wouldnít want testing ground. Be My Present is a keen racer who wouldnít have been suited by soft ground on two of her three runs this season, whilst the pace of her middle run on Polytrack was farcical and no use to her at all. However, she shaped like the best horse for much of the home straight in the Listed maresí event at Sandown last time, simply not getting home under the testing conditions. Stop the video around 3f out and she was travelling much better than eventual winner Mollyís A Diva, who is favourite for todayís race. Be My Present was an impressive winner on her only start on decent ground on turf, and she looks overpriced here with the big field and better ground looking to be in her favour. Abigail Lynch won her point in Ireland on good to firm ground, and whilst her Lingfield win (in the same race where Be My Present flopped) came in a farcical race because of the lack of pace, her turn of foot was extremely impressive. She is very hard to assess, but it would be no surprise if she turns out to be very talented and sheís worth backing too. 1pt win BE MY PRESENT (25-1 Betfred, Coral, Ladbrokes, Stan James*)"


Notes:-
Op 20/1 oc ][ CIR = Towards rear of mid-division on inside, driven 3f out, never on terms, weakened over 1f out opened 20/1 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/04/2013 Abigail Lynch G. Baker TinklerA AINT 17 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"The mares' bumper (5.25) is an interesting race from a betting point of view, as much of the form on which the market is based has come on bad ground. My two against the field are BE MY PRESENT and ABIGAIL LYNCH, both of whose trainers have stated they wouldnít want testing ground. Be My Present is a keen racer who wouldnít have been suited by soft ground on two of her three runs this season, whilst the pace of her middle run on Polytrack was farcical and no use to her at all. However, she shaped like the best horse for much of the home straight in the Listed maresí event at Sandown last time, simply not getting home under the testing conditions. Stop the video around 3f out and she was travelling much better than eventual winner Mollyís A Diva, who is favourite for todayís race. Be My Present was an impressive winner on her only start on decent ground on turf, and she looks overpriced here with the big field and better ground looking to be in her favour. Abigail Lynch won her point in Ireland on good to firm ground, and whilst her Lingfield win (in the same race where Be My Present flopped) came in a farcical race because of the lack of pace, her turn of foot was extremely impressive. She is very hard to assess, but it would be no surprise if she turns out to be very talented and sheís worth backing too. 1pt win ABIGAIL LYNCH (14-1 bet365, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
CIR = Chased leaders to over 6f out, soon behind, tailed off 3f out



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/04/2013 Teaforthree R. Curtis ScholfieldN AINT 35.5 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"TEAFORTHREE is a horse who has always looked the ideal type for the National, a bold jumper who stays extremely well, and his latest effort when flopping at Haydock can be forgiven, as he reportedly did not settle or eat up the night before the race, having travelled to the course the day before the race. He will be travelling up this morning as a result, and the race does look ideal for him; he's always been thought of as a soft-ground horse, but the ground was good when he won the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last season, and a test of stamina might be as important as the ground to him. 1pt win TEAFORTHREE (16-1 Ladbrokes, Betfred *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/04/2013 Balthazar King HobbsPJ JohnsonR AINT 35.5 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"BALTHAZAR KING can make the odd mistake, but he has never fallen over fences and his jumping is generally very good, attacking the obstacles, and this test could suit him very well. He has looked better than ever on his last three starts, two of which came over the cross-country course at Cheltenham, and his win over the conventional fences at Cheltenham in between showcased both his staying power and gameness (rallied after being headed). That win also highlighted the fact that he goes very well fresh (his form figures when returning from an absence of more than three months read 1211111). He missed his intended engagement at the Cheltenham Festival because his trainer considered the ground to be too soft, but the ground should be fine today and he looks a very interesting runner. 1pt win BALTHAZAR KING (20-1 Stan James, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/04/2013 Cry Of Freedom FergusonJP QuinlanJ3 AINT 16.5 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"CRY OF FREEDOM looks the type to be suited by a test of speed, a suggestion backed up by both his pedigree and the way he has been campaigned to date, and he should go well in the 2m handicap hurdle at Aintree (5.10). He's a son of Street Cry, and a 7f Listed winner on the Flat, and the races his connections have chosen (twice running at the very sharp Musselburgh, for instance) suggests connections think a test of stamina is not in his favour. He was ridden as if his jockey had similar concerns at Newbury last time, set a lot to do, but he finished really well from a long way back, too much to do to catch eventual winner Meganisi, the race also unfolding on the opposite side of the track to where he was racing. He's up 6lb, but this track on decent ground should play to his strengths, and he ought to give a good account. 1pt win CRY OF FREEDOM (14-1 Coral, Stan James, Bet365, Betvictor, Betfred *BOG)"


Notes:-
Cond & Amat Jks rc ][ CIR = Held up mid-division, weakened from 2 out ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/04/2013 Sin Bin NichollsPF CowleyJ5am ASCT 24 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"My attention will be firmly on the Flat from now on, but for those looking for a bet at Ascot today, SIN BIN looks to have solid claims in the 3m conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle (5.10). Everything about his career to date has suggested he's very much a staying type, as he doesn't have much by way of speed, but tends to stay on steadily at one pace. There are several pieces of evidence to suggest that he's already fairly handicapped off his current mark of 119 even on his form over 2m4f; he divided Shotgun Paddy (currently rated 133) and Cheat the Cheater (rated 120) at Chepstow in November, and on his next start was beaten only two lengths in receipt of 7lb by The Romford Pele, who ran an excellent race next time when fourth in the Welsh Champion Hurdle off a mark of 134. On the face of it he disappointed next time when a beaten favourite, but again he simply lacked the pace to get involved over 2m4f, and the first three home that day all won next time and are currently rated 143, 129 and 128 respectively. His two bumper wins came on good ground, grinding it out on each occasion, and a little improvement for the step up in trip would see him hard to beat here. 1pt win SIN BIN (4-1 Coral, William Hill, Paddy Power *BOG)"


Notes:-
** NOTE his point(ed remark) about 'sticking to flat..' given his lack of success at CHAM & AINT. Gd with NH tips before though (?) ][ Conds Jk race again ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/04/2013 Duke Of Destiny Ed Walker BakerG KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"DUKE OF DESTINY looks the interesting one against largely-exposed rivals in the 7f handicap at Kempton today (4.50). Most of his rivals here have had plenty of chances in similar company all winter, but Duke Of Destiny has had just five career starts, and he shaped with distinct promise on both Polytrack outings. He produced a strong finish when winning on his handicap debut at Lingfield, and then shaped very well in what looked a strong race for the grade over a mile when last seen in December; he travelled well (though rather bumped around on the home turn), and pulled clear with Whispering Warrior, who won his next two starts, and a couple of in-form rivals, though shaping as if his stamina was possibly stretched at the trip. The downside here is his draw in stall 13, but itís not impossible to overcome that kind of draw (indeed, three of the five handicap runners from that berth in 2013 won), and he does look to have more potential improvement than most here. Elsieís Orphan might be another to consider as she is very well handicapped now and didnít get much luck in running when last seen, but Duke Of Destiny might be more progressive. 1pt win DUKE OF DESTINY (8-1 bet365, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
4yo+ 0-65. DoD unr 2yo & OR63. Only 4yo in fld with other 12 at 5-9yo. ][ Op 9/2 oc & 7/2f. In context of his 'exposed rivals' stuff the winner was 9yo Teen Ager having it's 69th run and OR57 for Pen6 having been on OR51 for ages until the win. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/04/2013 Silly Billy W. G. M. Turner WhileR7 SWEL 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"I've been waiting for some time for SILLY BILLY to run again at Southwell and he looks of definite interest in the 7f handicap there this afternoon (5.05). He's thoroughly exposed on Polytrack and turf, but he has shaped really well on both Fibresand starts, and it's possibly no coincidence that his last win came here. On his first start at the track in January 2012 he took a while to come to terms with the surface, dropped in and switched to the inside rail from his wide draw by his apprentice rider and soon behind, detached from the field by four or five lengths turning for home, but making eyecatching progress to finish a never-nearer fifth behind some solid Fibresand performers. He had been beaten a long way on his previous Polytrack start prior to that run, and again finished tailed off back on Polytrack next time, but was returned to Southwell for his next start and bounced back to form, again racing round the inside (often not the place to be at Southwell) and finding himself with a bit to do turning for home but staying on strongly up the straight to win with a bit to spare (he duly flopped when returned to Polytack two days later). It could be that he's a much better horse on Fibresand than elsewhere - his sire Noverre has a strike rate of around 16% on the surface, compared with around 10% on Polytrack - and he shaped on both his previous start here over 6f as if he would be better over 7f (two most recent performances suggest he's better over that distance these days). 2pts win SILLY BILLY (4-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
** NOTE 2pts Win ][ CIR = Tracked leaders, headway well over 2f out, switched right and ridden to challenge over 1f out, every chance until driven and no extra last 100yds (op 11/4)



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/04/2013 Tartan Jura M. Johnston FanningJ SWEL 16 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Itís no surprise to see Stentorian already trading at odds on in the 2m handicap at Southwell (4.35), as this US-bred strolled home on his Fibresand debut. He could easily bolt up under a penalty, but he is likely to be tested much more here than he was in that steadily-run race, and if TARTAN JURA runs to the same level as he did on his own Fibresand debut in February, then Stentorian will need to be well above average by the trackís standards to give him 5lb. Visually Tartan Jura was the opposite of Stentorian on that previous run here, seemingly merely grinding his way into second place, but the time figure of the race was very good, and winner Kazbow beat Stand Guard, another really useful horse on Fibresand, next time. 1pt win TARTAN JURA (11-2 bet365, Coral*)"


Notes:-
CIR = Led, pushed along 4f out, ridden and headed 3f out, driven and slightly outpaced 2f out, kept on under pressure inside final furlong (op 4/1)



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/04/2013 Burgoyne H. Morrison HavlinR SWEL 12 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"BURGOYNE (Southwell 4.05) shaped as if he would be suited by a step up in trip when winning over a mile here last time, staying on strongly having looked beaten some way out, and I think he should probably be favourite here. The level of his track form looks some way ahead of that of maiden winner Glenreef (time and opposition were nothing special) and Lucky Mountain, and Naru, who is having his first run at Southwell is by Authorized, who is not only waiting for his first winner as a sire at Southwell, but all 16 of his runners at the track have been beaten at least eight lengths. Burgoyne looks to have been fairly treated for this handicap debut, and although he didnít look straightforward last time (head carriage awkward), he got the job done in a fair time and gave the impression he might be even better over further. 1pt win BURGOYNE (9-4 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
3TO Career & up to 12f after 8f Mdm win. On OR73, other 3 rnrs on 75/70/61 ][ Last of 4 & 2nd Fav to 11/8f wnr Naru. CIR = Tracked leading pair, pushed along briefly after 4f, close up on outer halfway, ridden along 3f out, soon beaten (op 13/8 tchd 11/8) = Stepping up 4F in dist really a positive? For an unproven horse on 3TO in it's first hcap.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/04/2013 Mick Slates CarrolD HartJ5 CATT 7 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"MICK SLATES shaped with plenty of promise on his seasonal debut over an inadequate trip and can go well despite a difficult draw back at 7f at Catterick today (4.20). He was always likely to find 6f an inadequate test on his reappearance, but all the more so held up at the back of the field at Warwick, where hold-up tactics havenít always paid dividends in recent times. Nonetheless, he stayed on steadily under a hands-and-heels ride, giving the impression he had returned in good form. He won and finished second over course and distance last year, and his stable has had several horses shaping with encouragement during the early days of the turf season. Thereís a question mark over his effectiveness on the ground if itís on the fast side, but his only previous attempts on quick ground came over inadequate trips during his early 2yo days. 1pt win MICK SLATES (11-2 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/04/2013 Arizona John J. Mackie GibbonsG CATT 12 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"ARIZONA JOHN shaped with definite promise on his reappearance at Wolverhampton and looks to have plenty in his favour at Catterick this afternoon (4.50). He went down by only a head in this race last year, having previously won over this course and distance, and he showed that he has returned in good heart when third behind stable mate and course specialist Illustrious Forest on his reappearance, not at all knocked about but still shaping very well given the winner, runner-up and fourth had all been in very good form on Polytrack. He won on his second outing last year after a spin round Wolverhampton, and he should get the decent pace that suits with prominent racers Alsahil and Fly Solo in the field. Graham Gibbons has been a significant jockey booking for John Mackie this year (three wins and four seconds from 11 rides), and Arizona John looks to have a solid chance here. 1pt win ARIZONA JOHN (6-1 William Hill*, 11-2 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
Drift 9/2. Both Tips on day SP lomnger than Recomm.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/04/2013 Flamborough Breeze E. F. Vaughan MorrisL KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"FLAMBOROUGH BREEZE is up considerably in grade tonight at Kempton (7.00), but she shaped as if as good as ever last time, and she might give her rivals from powerful stables plenty to think about. She ended up with too much to do last time over 1m2f here, ridden as if connections were concerned about her stamina, but she still produced her trademark burst of speed to come from last to almost catch Tadabeer, who very much got first run on her, the pair well clear. That form looks all the stronger now as the winner beat red-hot favourite Aegeaus next time, the pair pulling a long way clear again, and Tadabeer is favourite to win a very warm handicap later on tonight's card. This is by some way the strongest race Flamborough Breeze has contested this winter, but the clock suggests she's entitled to be thereabouts, although clearly the likes of Net Whizz and Rockalong have the potential to be ahead of their respective marks. 1pt win FLAMBOROUGH BREEZE (10-1 Bet Victor*, Bet365* & Stan James*)"


Notes:-
OR76 in a Class 4 hcap with Tw OR85 ][ Drift 7/2 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/04/2013 Jacobella J. G. Portman FahyJP KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"JACOBELLA has shaped with plenty of promise on both starts, especially her second one, and she looks the one to be on in the 1m maiden at Kempton today (6.30). She travelled well for a long way on her debut over 7f here last year, making steady late progress and not knocked about. I doubt connections really wanted to drop her in trip next time after that, but the valuable Brightwell Ascot Sales race was probably too tempting a race, and she ran an excellent race against a track bias despite looking unsuited by the drop in trip; as the day progressed races on the straight track seemed to be dominated by horses racing prominently and close to the far rail, so after being held up and forced to challenge very wide, Jacobella performed with plenty of credit to finish a never-nearer fourth. The fact that previous maiden winners were behind her in fifth, sixth and eighth augurs well for her prospects back in maiden company, and this 1m trip looks much more suitable; if she returns in the same sort of form, she should be hard to beat. Her stable hasn't had a winner since September but has had three or four horses run very well at decent odds from a small number of runners this year. 2pts win JACOBELLA (5-1 Bet Victor*, Boylesports*, Coral*, Paddy Power*)"


Notes:-
** NOTE = 2 POINTS Win ][ 3yo 3TO after 2 x 2yo runs & Break. Race also has Lady Who in an Eye prev after FTO & 3TO here. ][ Drift 3/1 oc ][ Lady Who 3rd at 6/1 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/04/2013 Lord Of The Dance MullineuxM EavesT LNGA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"On a distinctly uninspiring day's racing, LORD OF THE DANCE makes a little appeal in the 1m handicap at Lingfield (3.00). He's thoroughly exposed and probably weighted up to his best, but he has shaped as if at the top of his game on his last three starts. He stayed on steadily over 7f when third to the progressive Frontier Fighter three outings ago at Wolverhampton, and athough he was probably fortunate to win at Lingfield next time given that hot favourite Elusive Hawk was forced very wide on the home turn, he still produced a pleasing display, stretching out well. He was then totally unsuited by the way the race was run at Kempton next time, held up in a race run at a steady tempo, but he caught the eye making late progress into third, shaping as if still in good form. He probably doesn't have much in had off his current mark, but ought to go well again at reasonable odds. 1pt win LORD OF THE DANCE (9-1 bet365*, Bet Victor*, 8-1 Coral*, Ladbrokes*, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
7yo off OR70 after win OR65. Has spent entire hcap carrer bet OR59-72 & won OR70 end 4yo ssn &only placed ab in period on OR70-2 as a 5yo. Recent 3 wins off OR60-5. Seems a horse with a set top OR level & have to believe he has improved at 7yo or found a weak race to win off OR70 again. Hard to see any positive supports & reads like a weak tip on day when this the only one & he has to tip 'something'. Tip also put up on website very late at 10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/04/2013 Beaumont's Party EliisonB SwiftD DONC 10.3 G

HT Selection Text:-

"The 1m2f handicap at Doncaster today is an interesting contest, not least because of the curious treatment by the handicapper of current favourite Albaqaa. He has done most of his racing, and winning, at between a mile and ten furlongs, and caught the eye on a number of occasions last year at around a mile. He has been given four runs over sprint distances this winter - distances over which he would have no chance - and I can't help thinking that lots of owners and trainers up and down the country will have noted that the handicapper has obligingly dropped him 2lb after each of those four runs. He'd clearly be thrown in if close to his best now, and his yard is in form, but these things don't always work out and it does make BEAUMONT'S PARTY a bit of value each way in the race. He was extremely impressive on his first start for Brian Ellison at Newcastle last week, keen early but still clearly having plenty left when having to wait for a run 2f out, then doing well to run down Docs Legacy given the latter was himself pulling away from the remainder. The runner-up had also pulled clear with an unexposed rival on his previous start and the form looks very solid, and Beaumont's Party still has scope in handicapping terms, getting within half a length of the smart Fallen Idol off a mark of 91 back in 2011. 1pt each way BEAUMONT'S PARTY (5-1 Bet365, Boylesports *BOG)"


Notes:-
**NOTE = 1pt EW = 2pt Selection ][ Class 4 hcap 16rns when selection published. BP tw off OR85 with range down to OR71. Albaqaa 3/1 fav at 10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/04/2013 Concise E. A. L. Dunlop BuickW KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Kempton CONCISE can go well in the 1m fillies' conditions stakes (4.25). She has little chance with a couple of these judged on official ratings, but she shaped very well when winning over this course and distance on her second start, doing well to run down a Godolphin debutant who himself was pulling further and further clear of the remainder (the eventual margin back to the third was eleven lengths). Concise couldn't get competitive in the valuable Tattersalls Sales race next time, but neither the ground nor the trip were in her favour that day and she should be seen in a better light back at 1m. Trainer Ed Dunlop has made a fair start to the season and William Buick, who won on Concise, is back on board. 1pt win CONCISE (10-1 William Hill, Stan James, 9-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
6 runner race. Open 6/1 oc. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/04/2013 Bunratty SayerD HardingB MRAS 21 G

HT Selection Text:-

"BUNRATTY might be more interesting than an initial glance would suggest in the 2m5f handicap hurdle at Market Rasen today (3.35). He is a maiden after 16 starts, and has done most of his recent racing over 2m, but on more than one occasion during his career he has rallied after being passed over the minimum trip, suggesting he might appreciate further. The problem has been that he tends to race keenly, but he has a hood fitted for the first time today, and if that helps him settle, he could be a different proposition to his earlier efforts over this sort of trip. His recent effort on his first start for his current yard behind stable mate Endeavor (who runs in the seller just over an hour earlier) has worked out well enough so far, and it's worth noting that Bunratty's previous yard hasn't had an NH winner for over a year, whereas his current trainer Dianne Sayer is going well, with winners at 20-1, 11-2 and 6-1 already this month. 1pt win BUNRATTY (9-1 William Hill, Coral , 17-2 Betvictor - All *BOG)"


Notes:-
Op 6/1 oc ][ CIR = Led, took keen hold, clear when not fluent 1st, not fluent and jumped left 6th, headed 2 out, stayed on same pace flat opened 6/1 touched 11/2 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/04/2013 Ted's Brother R. C. Guest FitzpatrickR NEWC 8 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"TEDíS BROTHER shaped very well at Newcastle last time in a race that will probably turn out to be strong form for the grade and should go well upped to a mile at the same track today (4.30). Heís been struggling to land a blow over 7f lately, and he gave the impression last time over 7f that he was worth another try at this trip; he had the race run to suit, held up at the back off a strong pace, but was still set plenty to do and after taking a while to find his stride he finished strongly to snatch second. That race was run in a good time and Tedís Brother has been left on the same mark here. He should get the decent pace that suits here with Cono Zur and West End Lad in the line-up, and heís potentially well drawn in stall 12, whilst he seems to go well at this track. Morocco might be the biggest danger, having threatened more than he eventually delivered on his first run for David OíMeara over 1m1f last time. 1pt win TED'S BROTHER (7-2 Generally Available with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
Straight 8f. Note = Put up as Eye prev Weds before this Mon Selection. ][ Bw with OR60 & tw OR73 ][ Note how he HAS to mention an O'Meara Switcher as a Danger ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/04/2013 Someone's Darling J. S. Goldie LeeG NEWC 5 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 5f handicap at Newcastle (3.00), SOMEONEíS DARLING looks overpriced despite misgivings about the drying ground. She was better than the bare result on her recent reappearance at Musselburgh, where not much was in her favour; she had to be dropped out early from her wide draw and was held up over a trip that is probably too far for her on a day when prominent runners dominated; nonetheless she made a good mid-race move to launch a challenge two furlongs out before fading. She would probably prefer more give in the ground, especially at this trip, but sheís a big price for a horse that was beaten only a neck from the worst draw over 5f at Musselburgh last season off a 1lb higher mark. 1pt win SOMEONEíS DARLING (20-1 bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, Totesport)"


Notes:-
Maiden 3yo OR59. Weak race with tw OR63 & an A7. SDarling ran well EDIN FTO 2yo as well. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/04/2013 Hellbender S. A. Harris DentimanD SWEL 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"The 7f handicap is the pick of the action at Southwell today (4.25), and in a race that looks very open, HELLBENDER looks a shade overpriced given that he probably has similar claims on his course form to a couple of horses that are a bit shorter than he is. Heís been progressing steadily on this surface and produced what was probably a career-best effort last time, unable to peg back the in-form Ace Master (who has won again since) but pulling well clear of solid course yardsticks Copperwood and Piceno. Caldercruix, who will be suited by the return to 7f, and Half A Billion, whose course form (albeit over 6f and off lower marks) reads 122, probably have similar chances on the book, but thereís slightly more juice in Hellbenderís price this morning, and with the likely good pace a positive for his chances he looks the value bet. 1pt win HELLBENDER (13-2 Betfred, Coral*, 6-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
?/ COFOR = Should some of these be just a BoPrices among similar profiles of sev horses? ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/04/2013 Vodka Time P. D. Evans QueallyTP NMKT 5 G

HT Selection Text:-

"Iím in little doubt that the 2yo maiden run at Kempton on Saturday represents the best juvenile form on offer to date this season, at least in terms of depth, and VODKA TIME can confirm that suggestion in the 2yo conditions race at Newmarket today (2.20). He ran really well from a difficult draw in the Brocklesby, and whilst thereís a strong suspicion that many of the also-rans in that race wonít amount to much, the front three or four pulled a long way clear and the winner Mickís Your Man was quite impressive in winning at Musselburgh next time. Vodka Time was heavily backed prior to that latest run at Kempton, but that looks to have been a strong race, run in a fair time despite an ordinary gallop. Of his rivals, none of whom have raced on turf before, Split Rockís win came in a five-runner affair at Southwell, a track where his sire Shamardal has a terrific record, and it remains to be seen if he can build on that on his turf debut, whilst neither Orton Park nor MíSelle achieved much on the clock when winning on debut, though the formerís race is starting to work out okay and both could improve plenty. 1pt win VODKA TIME (9-2 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/04/2013 Mister Marcasite M. E. Brittain AllanD BVLY 10 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"The 1m2f 3yo handicap at Beverley today (2.35) is full of interesting horses, but I do think MISTER MARCASITE is overpriced after a most encouraging run last time. He has been ridden too aggressively on both starts this season, tiring on heavy ground at Doncaster on his reappearance (though still in front of todayís rival Arthurís Secret until the furlong pole), but then shaping really well on his latest start at Nottingham; he contested a pace that was far too strong (the leader would have been around 20 lengths clear of the field in the other two races run over the same distance that day), and in the circumstances did really well to hang on to third in a race that very much suited hold-up horses. His pedigree on the damside suggests this step up in trip should suit (half brother to Yorkshire Cup third Jelani), and his stable is in good form (three handicap winners from last six runners). He will need to settle over this longer trip and might not get an easy lead here, whilst there are several progressive-looking types in the opposition, but he does look too big a price given the promise of his latest run. 1pt win MISTER MARCASITE (14-1 Skybet, Stan James, 12-1 general)"


Notes:-
WTRB = Too Free ][ Last of 8 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/04/2013 Fehaydi W. J. Haggas MooreR NMKT 10 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"The stalls are on the far side of the far side course at Newmarket today, and that particular configuration sometimes (though not always) leads to a faster strip of ground next to the far rail. One trainer who has exploited this with success in the past is William Haggas (Rosdhu Queen from last season being an example some readers may remember with fondness), so although FEHAYDI has a lot to find on the book in the Tattersalls Millions 3yo Trophy (2.55), from stall 1 and in the expectation of a positive ride, he might be able to cause an upset. The bare form of his recent win at Wolverhampton is some way from what is required here, but he did shape as if he would improve for todayís step up in trip, losing the lead when outpaced approaching the home turn but rallying and well on top at the line. Ryan Moore is clearly a significant booking and some of the market leaders are drawn very wide; if there is a strip of quicker ground next to the far rail, Fehaydi might be the one to exploit it, especially as he has a recent run under his belt. 1pt each-way FEHAYDI (14-1 general)"


Notes:-
*** NOTE 1pt EW = 2pt Bet ][ Another, perhaps not so rare, eg of HT referring to his own wining tips or unluckiness ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/04/2013 Rise To Glory S. A. Harris FentimanD WTON 7.1 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Wolverhampton (8.55) RISE TO GLORY is in the form of his life and should make a bold bid in the 7f handicap. He routed his field at Musselburgh two outings ago and then probably went off too fast at Newcastle last time, still shaping well in fourth in a race run in a good time for the grade (runner-up Alluring Star won easily yesterday). On the face of it this looks a stiff task given heís fully 15lb worse off with Jonnie Skull on 6f running here last month and has a wide draw to boot, but he was drawn even wider that day, and although there is a short run to the first bend over this trip, which is a disadvantage for a wide-drawn front runner, I wonít be surprised if Rise To Glory is in front again after a furlong, as Iím not sure too many of his rivals are likely to want to take him on up front over this trip. His superiority for his previous win here was greater than the margins suggested, having to do a lot of work to get to the lead, and he might find it easier to dominate over this trip; he doesnít need headgear on the evidence of his last two runs and should be hard to peg back if able to get to the front, or prominent without being forced wide. 1pt win RISE TO GLORY (4-1 Betfred*, 7-2 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
CIR = Led, headed entering final furlong, soon weakened ][ 2nd Tip of HarrisSA/Fentiman in 3 days.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/04/2013 Hay Dude E. M. Burke MetcalfeM3 NWBY 7 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"HAY DUDE shaped very well on his reappearance at Kempton and can go well at decent odds in the 7f handicap at Newbury today (3.05). An impressive heavy-ground winner on his debut at Haydock, he couldnít build on that second time out on similar ground after again travelling best, but as he had barely had a race on his debut that might be best forgiven. He went through the race like the best horse for a long way on his reappearance at Kempton, quickening past warm favourite Prophets Pride 2f out and still looking likely to win well inside the final furlong before the winner went past him again. Prophets Pride is a progressive horse who had fitness on his side, and I donít think heíd be priced up at double-figure odds in this race, so Hay Dude looks good value with the fitness advantage in his favour this time compared with many of his rivals, whilst he shaped last time as if the return to 7f would be in his favour. Another to consider in this race is Hasopop, one of my recent eyecatchers on the channel after giving the impression he would have gone very close with a clear run in the Listed Spring Cup last time at Lingfield, the only concern about him being whether he is quite so effective on turf as on Polytrack. 1pt win HAY DUDE (12-1 BetVictor, Boylesports, Ladbrokes*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/04/2013 Caledonia Lady Joanna Hughes LeeG BATH 5 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"Itís Bathís biggest day of the season, and in the Listed Lansdown Stakes (6.30) CALEDONIA LADY can go one better than she did in this race last year. She was arguably unlucky that day, as the winner got first run on her after she had been dropped in from her wide draw, but the way she finished illustrated that she is very well suited by courses that suit strong-finishing types. This race should be run to suit with plenty of pace in the line-up, and Caledonian Lady escapes a penalty here for her Group Three win at Sandown last year (that win came in July and penalties only apply to races run after August). She took on some very warm opposition last year Ė this will be her first run against her own sex since this race last year Ė and she looks the one to beat. 1pt win CALEDONIA LADY (9-2 Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/04/2013 Ifandbutwhynot D. O'Meara MurphyTJ AYR 16 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"IFANDBUTWHYNOT remains potentially very well handicapped and it can pay to give him another chance in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr today (2.40). He was an impressive winner on testing ground at the Open meeting back in November, a race which worked out extremely well, but there's a suspicion this strong traveller may be even better on decent ground; nevertheless, he shaped much better than the result, taken very wide for much of the race, still going well but jumping the second last around ten horses wide and finding the leaders well ahead of him by the time his rider had threaded him across to the inside. In the circumstance she did extremely well to be still in contention for a place approaching the final 100 yards before several horses passed him close to the line. He gives the impression he's still extremely well handicapped when he puts it all together (only 4lb higher than when a cosy winner two outings ago), and providing he gets a reasonable pace (which should be the case with Shotavodka and Bygones of Brid in the field) he can show his true colours here. 1pt win IFANDBUTWHYNOT (5-1 William Hill, Stan James, Bet365 *BOG)"


Notes:-
Note Text seems to have something missing around nevertheless ref to another race. ][ Limited Hcap with Grumeti tw on OR153 & bw 131. IABWN 2nd bw on OR134. ][ Got to end of filling in Data & find it's ANOTHER O'Meara love-in Tip.. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/04/2013 Glorious Protector Ed Walker SpencerJ NWBY 8 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"At Newbury (4.05), GLORIOUS PROTECTOR is a horse I've been waiting for ever since he made a most eyecatching debut at Newmarket last season. He finished sixth in a 1m Newmarket maiden, but shaped with abundant promise under a very considerate ride, staying on steadily against the run of the race, giving the impression there would be far more to come with that experience under his belt (his jockey reported that he had run green in the dip). His trainer Ed Walker has started the season with most of his horses running well and it has to be encouraging that he's given Glorious Protector a Dante entry this Spring; both that and his pedigree suggest he'll perhaps want further than today's mile in time, but he didn't look slow at Newmarket, this flatter track should prove more suitable and he's well drawn today. 1pt win GLORIOUS PROTECTOR (9-1 Betvictor, Stan James, Coral *BOG)"


Notes:-
Spencer ridden on sole 2yo in slower race & I noted BTR OKSz & how Quietly Ridden he was ][ Update = won WDSR 10f Medn mid-May then placed in 11-12f Hcaps June & Oct (x2) in 3 later runs off low to mid OR80s = Improve at 4yo? ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/04/2013 Universal M. Johnston SousaSD NWBY 12 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"In the John Porter Stakes at Newbury (1.50), UNIVERSAL might be able to spring a minor surprise. The trip might be the key to this horse, as although he has won three times at around 1m2f, he gave the impression he was only just getting going at the finish over 1m3f at Kempton two outings ago, and was quite impressive when defying a big weight to win off a mark of 101 at Lingfield last time. It's only around eight months since he joined Mark Johnston, and he gives the impression there might be plenty more to come over this trip; there isn't an obvious frontrunner in this field, and if ridden prominently here he might prove hard to peg back with race fitness on his side. 1pt win UNIVERSAL (9-1 Bet365, Betvictor, Coral, Paddy Power *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/04/2013 Superciliary GordonC CannonT3 WINC 16 G

HT Selection Text:-

"SUPERCILIARY looked a different horse away from testing ground at Plumpton last time and he can follow up at Wincanton this afternoon (2.10). He had been well held over hurdles prior to that latest clear-cut win on much better ground, and a 7lb rise might not be able to stop him with the ground set to be in his favour again. He was placed twice on the flat on quick ground, and the progeny of his sire, Dansili, have a better overall record on quick ground than in testing conditions. The third and sixth from his recent win both won next time and Superciliary has the advantage of being ridden in this conditional jockeys' event by regular partner Tom Cannon, who is able to claim his regular 3lb. 1pt win SUPERCILIARY (4-1 Paddy Power *BOG, 7-2 Bet365, Betfred, Stan James, William Hill *BOG firms) "


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG

HT Selection Text:-

""


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG

HT Selection Text:-

""


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
" Op 10/3 to 5/2f oc ][ CIR = Tracked leaders, ridden to challenge 2 out, stayed on same pace opened 10/3 ][ BTOR GG PD "FR"

HT Selection Text:-

""


Notes:-
JK



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/04/2013 Stickleback M. D. Hammond SullivanJP PFCT 21.5 G

HT Selection Text:-

"STICKLEBACK shaped like an out-and-out stayer last time and can go well in the Pontefract Marathon Handicap (3.40), a race in which his trainer has an excellent record. Micky Hammond won this race in 2009, 2010 and again last year, and Stickleback looked just the type for it on his reappearance over 2m2f. Stickleback looked one of the first beaten that day, off the bridle and losing his prominent position after the half mile pole despite wearing cheekpieces for the first time, but he rallied in the straight and gave the impression he was only just getting going at the line, staying on strongly to finish third. He gave the impression that todayís extreme test would be right up his street and this doesnít look a strong race. 1pt win STICKLEBACK (5-1 Bet Victor, Coral, Stan James*)"


Notes:-
Class 5 rc. Stickleback, an 11 race maiden, the 4yo bw off OR49 with top 4 bet OR70-5. Next youngest hrs 6yo & 3 in 10-11yo range. ][ Pre-race = Class Level -ve? for horse in wide OR range race? Or does HT see this as a 4yo with some improvement left UIT against old-timers? ][ Beaten by tw who was completing a hat-trick. CIR = Took keen hold, held up towards rear, headway on inside 2f out, went 3rd 1f out, stayed on to 2nd inside final furlong, no chance with unchallenged winner £1200-£300



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/04/2013 St Paul De Vence P. F. I. Cole SousaSD WDSR 8.3 G

HT Selection Text:-

"It took a long time for the penny to drop when ST PAUL DE VENCE won on his second start at Kempton in December and he looks potentially very well handicapped in the extended 1m 3yo handicap at Windsor this evening (6.00). He was clueless when thrown in at the deep end in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot on his debut, unsurprisingly never making an impact, and it seemed as if he hadnít learned much from that race when next seen six months on at Kempton, as he had to be ridden along from some way out despite the steady pace (the race was run nearly two and a half seconds slower to the 3f pole than the four races for older horses run on the same card). At the 2f pole he still appeared to be struggling before he suddenly found his stride and surged past his rivals, looking a different class to most of them. The next four horses have all won since and the second, third and fourth are currently rated 73, 74 and 79 respectively, so having been well in control at the finish despite taking so long to get going St Paul De Vence looks more than fairly treated off a mark of 80. 1pt win ST PAUL DE VENCE (8-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed forms)"


Notes:-
Op 13/2 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
23/04/2013 Kelvingrove E. F. Vaughan QueallyTP YARM 10.1 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"Not a day that makes much appeal to me from a punting point of view (though I think those who took the bigger prices on eyecatcher Sound Amigo last night have a decent value bet on his belated return to Polytrack), but KELVINGROVE shaped as if crying out for a step up in trip when last seen in December and is an interesting runner in the 1m2f 3yo handicap at Yarmouth (7.55). That was his first start for his current trainer Ed Vaughan, but he had shown ability when third in a Newmarket maiden on his debut for Henry Cecil (was unsuited by the steady pace on his second start). He gave the impression he was just finding his stride in the closing stages on that latest Kempton run, nearest at the finish, running an almost identical race to the eventual fifth Little Buxted, who won a well-contested maiden next time stepped up to 1m2f. Kelvingrove is a Hurricane Run half-brother to Cavalryman and should be suited by this trip and further this season; the concern is that he might need the run on his reappearance (his stableís record with horses returning from a break at this time of year is inferior to its overall record) but he looks worth chancing here anyway. 1pt win KELVINGROVE (6-1 Coral, Stan James, 11-2 Betfred, bet365, BetVictor*)"


Notes:-
3 x NRs & only 6 rnrs & op 7/2 oc ][ CIR = Tracked leader, carried wide entering straight over 4f out, ridden over 2f out, weakened inside final furlong opened 7/2 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/04/2013 Silvanus P. T. Midgley HanaganP EPSM 5 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"SILVANUSí first two runs this season have come in contests where he had little realistic chance of winning, but in both races he ran well up to a point before shaping perhaps as if the run were needed. He faces a more realistic task in the 5f handicap at Epsom today (2.20), back in handicap company off a mark of 87 having chased home horses rated 115, 108 and 104 last time. Paul Hanagan, who has four wins and three seconds from 11 rides on Silvanus, is back on board for the first time in a while, and he has a good draw. He has never run here before, but is a strong-travelling hold-up horse, often the type needed here with a fierce pace on the cards. The biggest danger could be Sandfrankskipsgo, who has always threatened to be a decent sprinter and was much more impressive than the bare margin when winning last time having not enjoyed the clearest of passages. 1pt win SILVANUS (14-1 BetVictor, Stan James 12-1 general)"


Notes:-
Beaten ShHd & 1L ][ CIR = Disputed lead until over 1f out, soon edged left, ran on opened 12/1 = Not typical 'Hold Up'? ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/04/2013 Nurpur D. O'Meara TudhopeD CATT 7 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"Nothing went right for NURPUR at Newcastle last time, but she can make amends and belatedly get off the mark in the 7f maiden at Catterick today (3.10). She shaped well on her debut for David OíMeara at Wolverhampton over 1m141y, disputing the lead from halfway and easing past the ridden-along favourite Fehaydi 3f out, but rejoined by him at the furlong pole and outstayed. That form looks extremely solid; the winner was one of five horses to pull clear in a £200,000 sales race next time, and is probably now rated 97, whilst fourth-placed Sublimation pulled clear with a promising debutant in a Nottingham maiden next time. Events conspired against Nurpur on her latest start; she was poorly drawn, was a keener than ideal into a strong headwind, and faded from the furlong pole having travelled well in a race dominated by horses that raced next to the stands rail. From stall 2, with a debutant drawn inside her, itís not hard to envisage her bouncing out and proving very hard to catch. 1pt win NURPUR (5-2 Stan James, 9-4 Betfred, 2-1 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
5/2 prob never available bec OR68 rated filly from DRCElasworth an NR during am & leaving OR74 rated Nurpur 5/4f without that opponent ][ At Eye last week? ][ Poor tipping day for him & this bad as a short fav in a Maiden. ][ Update = Nurpur won Maiden and 2 x hcaps during season up to OR85 when OR74 at time of Mdn win. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/04/2013 Spifer M. Botti HarleyM EPSM 10.1 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"SPIFER (Epsom 3.55) would have looked anything but an ideal Epsom type until fairly recently, often spoiling his chance by hanging and not looking straightforward at times during his first two seasons. He has looked a lot more straightforward in cheekpieces for his current trainer Marco Botti, however, shaping well on a couple of occasions despite not getting the run of the race, before finishing an excellent fourth in what is starting to look a really competitive renewal of the Rosebery Handicap at Kempton last time. The winner, Buckland, was beaten only a short head in the Queenís Prize next time, and the second and third, Universal and Tepmokea, finished first and second in a decent contest at Lingfield on their next start before Universal won the Group Three John Porter Stakes at the weekend. Spifer has edged to a career-high mark and has to reproduce those recent efforts back on turf, but he went down by only a short head in a hugely valuable turf handicap at Ascot back in 2011 and is only 4lb higher here, and definitely has the potential to win a big handicap such as this when everything drops right. 1pt win SPIFER (8-1 bet365, Boylesports, Coral, Paddy Power, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Angle appears to be following the Rosebery hcap form line which gave him winner with Univesral recently. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
25/04/2013 Rockweiler S. Gollings FanninJ BVLY 9.9 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"ROCKWEILER shaped as if handicapped to win last time at Doncaster and should go well in the 1m2f handicap at Beverley today (4.05). He raced prominently in a race where the gallop was too strong for the grade that day, but fared much the best of those up with the pace, joining the leaders on the bridle entering the home straight and eventually pulling clear with two horses that had been held up towards the rear in the early stages. He had also had too much use made of him on his reappearance there over a trip that is probably beyond his bets, and now reverts to a track that is more on favour of prominent runners, having been dropped a pound for each run. Joe Fanning is an encouraging booking given his excellent record on the round course (strike rate of 21% in Beverley handicaps at 7f+ over the past ten years and a return on investment of 1.23 with no winners above 14-1) and although there are other prominent runners in the field; Rockweiler doesnít have to make the running. 1pt win ROCKWEILER (13-2 Stan James, 6-1 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
An Eye recently ][ Op 5/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
25/04/2013 Border Bandit T. Waggott KennemoreR NEWC 10.1 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"At Newcastle, BORDER BANDIT looks interesting for an in-form yard dropping back in trip in the 1m2f handicap (7.50). Heís still a maiden, but is well handicapped on the pick of his form, and made an encouraging reappearance over 1m4f here; he pulled hard early but was going well enough when struggling for room around the 2f pole and then understandably he wasnít as strong at the finish as some others, his earlier exertions, stamina limitations and probably fitness all taking their toll. He has sometimes been ridden prominently, and that might be an advantage here in a race that doesnít look to have much pace; moreover, his stable is in blinding form, with form figures over the last eight days of 171121021. 1pt win BORDER BANDIT (12-1 Ladbrokes, Skybet, William Hill)"


Notes:-
OR51 5yo Maiden & jnt bw with OR65 tw. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
26/04/2013 Zaplamation J. J. Quinn O'ConnellM DONC 16.5 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"ZAPLAMATION was a revelation on his first start over 2m two outings ago, and after shaping as if still in form at Pontefract last time, he looks worth another chance to confirm he has been rejuvenated by the step up in trip at Doncaster today (4.10). Seemingly thoroughly exposed as modest (and on a long losing streak) prior to that Redcar run, he won that race with his rider virtually motionless up the home straight. He then contested a 2m2f handicap at Pontefract off his revised mark, but was clearly inconvenienced by the steady pace, seeing plenty of daylight and pulling hard, and left with a lot to do turning for home with his rider clearly intent on hanging on to him as long as possible over that still-longer trip. He stayed on steadily down the outside, all in all shaping well, though never likely to be a match for his well-handicapped stable mate Hidden Justice, and although this is probably a still tougher test, he reverts to a track that tends to favour hold-up horses here and providing he settles, he might prove a danger to all. 1pt win ZAPLAMATION (9-1 Betvictor, Stan James, Coral *BOG )"


Notes:-
OR70 here ][ Drift 15/2 oc ][ CIR = Keen towards rear, headway 2f out, ridden and no impression final furlong opened 15/2 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
27/04/2013 Muffin Mcleay T. D. Barron McNiffL5 RIPN 8 G

HT Selection Text:-

"MUFFIN MCLEAY was a big eyecatcher at Nottingham last time, and although his best trip is arguably 1m2f, he still looks interesting in the 1m handicap at Ripon (2.20) given his fine course form. He was held up at the back of the field at Nottingham in a steadily- run race last time, the winner making all in a race where nothing made any impact from off the pace, but made enough late progress under a considerate ride to suggest he is in good form. His two previous runs here both came over the 1m1f170y trip, but he travelled really well when winning on the second of those two runs, leading on the bridle 2f out and pulling well clear along with a well-handicapped Mark Johnston horse. He has a good draw and races over this course and distance are rarely run at a dawdle given the perceived advantage to front runners (nowhere near as strong as it was a few years ago in my opinion) , so should give a good account granted luck in running. 1pt win MUFFIN MCLEAY (14-1 Betvictor, Stan James, Coral *BOG )"


Notes:-
CIR = Dwelt, mid-division, weakened over 1f out opened 12/1



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
27/04/2013 Robynelle K. W. Dalgleish MulrennanP DONC 5 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"At Doncaster (5.40) ROBYNELLE is likely to set a tough standard for the newcomers in the 2yo maiden. She shaped well on her debut in a race where the front four all seemed fancied, widest of all at Newcastle, and she should come on for that effort. She might be able to grab the rail (looked an advantage here yesterday) from stall 6, and it's worth emphasising that, as is often the case at this time of year, two-year-olds that have had a run are at a distinct advantage; debutants in 2yo races so far this year are 19-202, 9.4% showing a return on investment of 0.59 (ie 59p per £1 staked), whereas 2yos that have run previously are 15-77, 19.5% and showing a return on investment of 1.16 (ie 16% profit). 1pt win ROBYNELLE (5-2 Boylesports, Bet365, Paddy Power, Coral, William Hill *BOG )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
28/04/2013 Fiendish Flame J. Candlish QuinlanS LDLW 20 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"FIENDISH FLAME was completely out of sorts in the 2012-13 season, but he bounced back to form last time and can take advantage of a favourable mark in the 2m4f handicap chase at Ludlow today (3.45). That poor run of results is easily explained by trainer Jenny Candlish having a wretched time of it between July 2012 and February 2013 (only one winner from 119 runners during that period), but nine winners from 43 runners since the beginning of March suggests the tides have turned, and Fiendish Flame shaped as if he would be adding to that tally soon when runner-up over this course and distance last time to Michael Flips, who did well to finish runner-up off a 9lb higher mark in a competitive handicap chase on his next start. Fiendish Flame should be able to dominate in this small field, he's very well handicapped on his best form after the stable's barren run, and the ground is in his favour again. 1pt win FIENDISH FLAME (3-1 Boylesports Betfred *BOG )"


Notes:-
Op 2/1 ][ CIR = Mostly jumped well, raced keenly, led and soon well clear, hit 4 out, reduced lead last, ridden and stayed on gamely to go clear again flat, unchallenged opened 2/1 £900-£400 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
29/04/2013 New Rich S. Kirk DoyleJ LNGA 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Those with established form in the 6f 3yo classified stakes at Lingfield today (5.25) donít look anything out of the ordinary, and it might be worth taking a chance on NEW RICH on his reappearance/debut for current yard. He didnít achieve much on paper in three starts last season for Michael Dods, but shaped with a bit of promise on his first two starts; he showed a bit of speed when attempting to match strides with the likes of Garswood and Blaine on his debut at York, fading from 2f out, and he didnít get the run of the race at Pontefract on his second start, not getting the clearest of runs when trying to make his move up the inside rail. His final effort at Carlisle is probably best forgiven, as his trainer had said previously in an At The Races stable tour that he wouldnít want the ground too soft. His fitness and progress for his new yard need to be taken on trust, but this £75,000 yearling probably has more potential than most in this field, and he wonít lack for assistance from the saddle with James Doyle booked. 1pt win NEW RICH (4-1 bet365, Coral, Paddy Power, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Tip prob put online at 09



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
29/04/2013 Starwatch J. J. Bridger DaviesWT5 WDSR 10 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"At Windsor (7.10) STARWATCH looks a bit overpriced in the 1m2f handicap and makes a little each-way appeal. He went off the boil in the second half of last season, the handicapper having perhaps caught up with him too, but having been dropped a few pounds he shaped well enough on his reappearance, staying on steadily after being headed 2f out. His only previous attempts at this sort of trip have come on quick ground, which probably wouldnít have been ideal, and there is plenty of encouragement from his pedigree that heís worth another try over 1m2f. He ran well second time out last year in a hot handicap at Epsom having been well beaten on his reappearance, and in a race where there doesnít appear to be much pace, he could spring a surprise. 1pt each-way STARWATCH (25-1 bet365, Bet Victor, Totesport, 20-1 general)"


Notes:-
NOTE = 1pt EW = 2pt Selection ][ OR84 tw ][ Last of 8 Runners. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
30/04/2013 Epic Charm M. R. Channon DaviesM LNGA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"EPIC CHARM shaped better than the result suggests in what will almost certainly prove a hot 3yo maiden at Newbury last time and looks worth an interest on her handicap debut at Lingfield today (4.00). She showed up well for a long way at Newbury against the colts in a maiden that often throws up some smart performers, and she was on what appeared to be the slower strip of ground closer to the stands rails as well. She had shown a glimmer of ability on her debut there last season (possibly didn't handle softer ground next time), and she makes her handicap debut off a lowly mark of 59. She's a bit of a speculative selection as she has yet to run on Polytrack but off such a low mark she looks worth chancing. 1pt win EPIC CHARM (14-1 bet365, Paddy Power*)"


Notes:-
Fils Hcap with Girl Of Cadiz tw OR67 & ECharm jnt bw at 59 ][ Op 7/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
30/04/2013 Cruiser W. R. Muir DwyerM LNGA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"CRUISER shaped well on his return from a six-month absence at Kempton last time and looks overpriced in the 1m handicap at Lingfield today (3.00). This is a race where a case can be made for all six runners, but Cruiser has run with credit on all his Polytrack starts to date and looked as good as ever on his return, taking a while to wind up as is sometimes the case but pulling clear with the unexposed and progressive Rockalong, with three subsequent winners behind him. That race was a steadily-run affair and Lowther, who finished fast in fourth and reopposes here, was probably more inconvenienced by the pace than Cruiser, but there isn't guaranteed to be a strong pace here either(though there are one or two prominent runners) and if Cruiser is in the right position to kick on the home turn he could take a bit of pegging back. 1pt win CRUISER (9-1 general - use BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/05/2013 Hasopop M. Botti MooreRL ASCT 6 G

HT Selection Text:-

"HASOPOP has caught the eye on his last two starts and can confirm that promise in the Listed Pavilion Stakes at Ascot today (4.10). The first of those two runs came in the Listed Spring Cup over 7f at Lingfield, when he finished with plenty of running in him after being hampered entering the straight and again at the furlong pole, left with no chance of landing a blow from his position. His latest effort came in a 7f handicap at Newbury, and after travelling strongly, he again couldnít land a blow as the prominent runners quickened away; nevertheless, he shaped well to finish third, giving the impression a more strongly-run race would suit, and the time (which compared favourably to the Greenham and Fred Darling which were run on ground no slower the following day) suggests that the form is very strong, and likely to work out well. The concern is the drop in trip, but providing there is a decent gallop (which ought to be the case with two or three front-runners in opposition) he should get a good tow into the race. 1pt win HASOPOP (7-1 Coral, Stan James, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Eyecatcher after early LNGA run. ][ Listed race & OR100, 3 others in OR101-3 range. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/05/2013 Dream Ally J. O'Keeffe MakinP PFCT 6 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"DREAM ALLY shaped well in a race run in a really quick time at Ripon on his reappearance and can confirm that impression in the 6f 3yo handicap at Pontefract (5.00). He finished third (second on the stands side, which may have been the slightly unfavoured side, though itís hard to be sure at this stage), and the race itself could be strong form for the grade; the time was almost better than that recorded in the first division of the 0-85 handicap for older horses earlier on the card, and only 0.07 seconds slower than the second division of that race, which saw progressive pair Baccarat and Sandy lane pull well clear. Dream Ally was an expensive purchase by his yardís standards and heís well bred too, by Oasis Dream out of a 6f Listed winner. He shaped really well when he ran here as a 2yo, having to weave his way in and out of traffic and finishing strongly over 5f. Incidentally, given that Pontefract is such a speed-favouring track these days; itís worth noting that Dream Ally broke very well last time (incorrectly noted as having dwelt in some quarters). 1pt win DREAM ALLY (11-4 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
OR 71 with field ranging OR75-61 ][ Eyecatcher Last Week ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
02/05/2013 Prospera R. M. Beckett CrowleyJ LNGA 12 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"PROSPERA is a half-sister to her stableís Breedersí Cup Marathon winner Muhannak and looks interesting stepping up to a mile and a half at Lingfield this afternoon (5.25). She gave the impression that 7f was inadequate on her first three starts as a 2yo before showing improved form stepped up to Wolverhamptonís extended 1m trip, off the bridle a long way out but sticking to her task behind the easy winner. She again shaped as if worth a try over further on her return at Nottingham, chasing the strong pace, and keeping on steadily in the closing stages under a fairly considerate ride once beaten. Her pedigree and running style suggest sheís well worth a try at middle distances, and although she faces some lightly-raced types from big yards, she might be able to find the necessary improvement. 1pt win PROSPERA (11-2 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
02/05/2013 Eightfold DurackS DobbsP CHEP 10.2 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"At Chepstow (6.10) EIGHTFOLD is one for those with long memories, returning to the course where was one of the biggest eyecatchers of the summer last year. Has yet to shine in three starts over hurdles since his last Flat run, his keen-going nature perhaps making him a doubtful stayer in that sphere, especially with cut in the ground (seemed not to get home over 2m on good ground on his hurdling debut). Heís fit from a recent spin over hurdles, but it was his run over 1m4f here last year that marked him out as potentially well handicapped on the Flat; held up a long way off the pace, he made steady headway from the rear but repeatedly found trouble in running before finishing fast into third. He gives the impression a truly-run 1m2f should be ideal, he clearly handles this unusual track, and if he gets a good pace to run at he can confirm himself a well-handicapped horse for a Seamus Durack, who has made a good start to his career as a trainer. 1pt win EIGHTFOLD (7-1 Betfred, BetVictor, Boylesports, Paddy Power*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/05/2013 Guilded Spirit W. S. Kittow MonganI CHEP 8.1 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"GUILDED SPIRIT was selected in this column on his seasonal reappearance, but didnít get the run of the race, and looks worth another chance upped to 1m on his handicap debut at Chepstow today (4.20). He was strong in the market (started favourite over the 80-rated winner), but with the drop to 7f having been the main concern prior to that race, the gallop, which started off steady and got even slower, was almost certainly against him, unable to go with his two market rivals (who bagged the favoured stands rail) in the final furlong. That form looks all the better given runner-up Right Touchís subsequent win at Ripon off a mark of 74, and Guilded Spirit had shaped with conspicuous promise on his second start as a 2yo over Nottinghamís extended mile; although he has to prove his effectiveness on lively ground, he looks potentially well handicapped off 72 back up in trip. 1pt win GUILDED SPIRIT (11-2- Betfred, 5-1 bet365, Boylesports, Paddy Power, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Update = Won 3 runs later over 10f off OR65. Followed that win with 2 poor runs (beaten 16.5 & 11L off OR72 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
04/05/2013 Dance And Dance E. F. Vaughan BuickW NMKT 9 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"The 1m1f handicap that opens Newmarket's Guineas card (2.05) is always very competitive and it's not hard to understand why the market is dominated by the more lightly-raced potential improvers, but I think DANCE AND DANCE, although one of the most exposed horses in the field, has a better chance than his odds suggest. He's had excuses for both starts this season, making a little late progress over an inadequate 7f on his reappearance, and then having no chance from his position in the Newbury Spring Cup last time, a race which appeared to feature a strong track bias (although the field went up the middle of the track, the horses that raced closest to the stands rail all finished tailed off); Dance And Dance tracked the leaders on that side of the group, but those racing centre to far side were about 15 lengths clear before he was asked for his effort, the horses he was tracking already some way behind at that point. Dance and Dance gives the impression he is at his best off a strong gallop on quick ground, and he should get those conditions for the first time in quite a while today; indeed, his high rating of 110 forced him into small-field conditions races for most of last year. He has now dropped to 100, and although he is clearly vulnerable to the more lightly-raced brigade, he looks worth chancing off his lowest mark for a couple of years with conditions in his favour. 1pt each way DANCE AND DANCE (25-1 Paddy Power, Boylesports, 22-1 William Hill, Betvictor *BOG )"


Notes:-
Op 16/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
04/05/2013 Lady Gibraltar A. P. Jarvis MurphyMJM5 GDWD 5 G

HT Selection Text:-

"At Goodwood (3.30) LADY GIBRALTAR can confirm the promise of her recent reappearance at Epsom. Not much went right for her that day as, having broken well from her wide draw, she was bumped after 100 yards and then couldn't get a clear run for much of the race. She travelled well enough to suggest she had returned in form, and her previous effort here reads very well, dead-heating with the in-form Jwala, who was runner-up to Sole Power in a Listed race, the pair clear. The concern is that the headgear Lady Gibraltar has worn for much of her career is again left off, but her trainer stated that the main reason the headgear was originally fitted was because of her tendency to hang and she does seem more straightforward these days. 1pt win LADY GIBRALTAR (6-1 Bet365, Betfred, Betvictor, Paddy Power, William Hill *BOG )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/05/2013 Hamza K. A. Ryan CallanN NMKT 6 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"HAMZA shaped as if he had returned in good heart on his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster, and with that run under his belt he could take plenty of pegging back in the 6f handicap at Newmarket today (3.10). He was most progressive as a 3yo, especially when encountering quick ground; he won a valuable 3yo handicap on the July Course in good style, and although there was a suspicion that he was helped by his track position that day, his next effort was even better, pulling well clear with the progressive Heeraat at York. He raced prominently as usual on his reappearance at Doncaster, and fared much the best of those forcing the pace on a track that doesn't always suit those tactics, swamped late on by a trio ridden with more restraint. Back on a more speed-favouring track, and in a race that doesn't look crammed full of frontrunners, he might be able to reverse the form with Shropshire and Hitchens, both of whom had already had a run when in front of him at Doncaster. 1pt win 1pt win HAMZA (7-1 Paddy Power, 13-2 Stan James, 6-1 Ladbrokes, Bet365, Boylesports *BOG )"


Notes:-
Eye aft last run ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/05/2013 Tumblewind R. M. Whitaker ChalonerG5 BVLY 5 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"At Beverley today (2.55) TUMBLEWIND should again go well in the 5f handicap. She has returned in good form this season, first home on the far side on her reappearance when runner-up to Right Touch in a 6f handicap at Ripon which was run in a good time, always looking likely to take the measure of eventual fourth Ayasha (who was fit from the all-weather) on her side but unable to cope with the winner in a race run in a good time. She then contested a 5f event at Newcastle, but although she coped with the drop in trip fine, her position away from the favoured stands rail almost certainly cost her dearly, travelling strongly but beaten by a pair that had spent most of the race next to the favoured rail. Tumblewind still shaped as if in top form and should go well again despite being 4lb higher here, whilst the track should be no problem as she readily beat the progressive Bogsnog (who beat her last time) over this course and distance from the worst of the draw last season. 1pt win TUMBLEWIND (13-2 Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill *BOG )"


Notes:-
Another 'Eye' from RIPN race he feels is good form that should work out. Dream Ally Tip this week & beaten as Eye from that race. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/05/2013 Posh Boy C. F. Wall DurcanTE WWCK 8 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"Chris Wall has an excellent record with horses making their handicap debut after three runs (17-79, +87 points since 2007), and POSH BOY might be able to improve it still further in the 1m handicap at Warwick (4.40). He progressed steadily in promise in three starts as a juvenile, his best effort coming on his final start when third in a fair Wolverhampton maiden, and it's likely there will be more to come this season. He looks potentially well handicapped off a mark of just 64, and his trainer was positive enough about him as a future prospect in an at the races stable tour, describing him as probably my best 2yo colt (though he did only run three male 2yos last year). 1pt win POSH BOY (8-1 Betvictor, William Hill, 7-1 Bet365, Betfred - all *BOG )"


Notes:-
OR64 bw after 3 x 2yo runs & Brk170. Tw OR70 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/05/2013 Countrywide Flame J. J. Quinn O'ConnelM CHES 18.6 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"Today's racing looks really unappetising from a betting point of view, so with the field finalised I'm going to put up my selection for tomorrow's Chester Cup instead. Probably more than any other big contest in the calendar, this is a race where it tends to pay to keep things simple; the tight nature of the track makes it very difficult to make progress from off the pace without giving a lot of ground away, and a well-handicapped, genuine, prominent-racing horse with a low draw is always going to be of interest, so although COUNTRYWIDE FLAME is favourite, I still wouldn't look any further. Well known as a high-class hurdler, he has improved in leaps and bounds in only three starts beyond 1m4f on the Flat, making all over 2m here on his penultimate Flat outing before running an excellent race when runner-up in the Cesarewitch. He's only 4lb higher here at a track that looks tailor-made for him; he's likely to be leading or prominent from an early stage, and he's a tough horse to pass, with a decent cruising speed and bags of stamina. The only slight question mark might be that the ground may be the quickest he has raced on to date, but he has never seemed a ground-dependent horse and he does look the likeliest winner of the race to me. 1pt win COUNTRYWIDE FLAME (9-2 Stan James*, 4-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
Note = Unusual day with Tweet at Usual time saying running behind schedule then this tip for a race the following day came up at 10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/05/2013 Keeping G. M. Lyons CarrollGF CHES 11.4 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"KEEPING created a really favourable impression when winning at Dundalk on her second start and looks an interesting runner in the Cheshire Oaks at Chester today (2.15). She tried to make all at Dundalk, but wasn't allowed an easy lead, taken on at a good pace by the Aidan O'Brien-trained Half Moon, who had the advantage of racing on the inside. Keeping cruised into a clear lead approaching the home turn, and although she wandered slightly under pressure and gave signs of tiredness in the final two furlongs after her earlier exertions, she never looked like being caught. The form looks very solid - the runner-up, who started 7-4 favourite, had been beaten a short head over course and distance on her previous start, the third bolted up at Navan last night, and both she and the fourth Half Moon are well-bred Aidan O'Brien-trained fillies who hold numerous big-race entries (Half Moon was also entered on Monday for the Lingfield Oaks Trial on Saturday). Keeping is drawn in stall two and has made or disputed the running on both starts, and she might be hard to peg back round here; rain is forecast and she has yet to prove her effectiveness on soft ground, but it might be worth forgiving her debut effort on that type of ground given her inexperience and the inadequate trip. 1pt win KEEPING (7-1 Bet Victor*, 13-2 bet365*, 6-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/05/2013 Last Sovereign O. Pears NortonF CHES 5.1 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 5f handicap (3.15) it might pay to keep things simple with LAST SOVEREIGN. He's probably not the best-handicapped horse in the race, but he's in form and drawn in stall one, and that is often at least as important round here. He shaped well on his return at Beverley, kicking clear before being collared late on by Mister Manannan (drawn wide here), and he then again shaped as if at the top of his game when just touched off at Doncaster last time; that form is working out well, with the third and fourth finishing third and first respectively in a big-field Thirsk handicap on Saturday and the winner and seventh second and fourth home on the possibly unfavoured far side in the same race, whilst the sixth also ran really well next time. The concern is that he can be slow from the gates, which is definitely not an advantage at Chester, but on the plus side he will be ridden by Franny Norton, who has probably been better than anyone else round here in recent years (27-169, +83pts over last three years at Chester, though there was a 50-1 winner included in those results). 1pt win LAST SOVEREIGN (11-2 Bet Victor*, William Hill*, 5-1 general)"


Notes:-
Given the need to be prom on RL after 1F the caveat of 'Slow Starter' should have been a bet killer here. HT tried to take a +ve view by hoping jk Norton could produce some magic but got left in Stalls 3-4L and no chance 2 seconds into race. Poor bet but supported 11/2 oc and good eg of how DRAW is a worthless factor to talk about without the RIGHT RUN STYLE. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/05/2013 Mister Impatience M. Johnston FanningJ CHES 12.4 G

HT Selection Text:-

"Although it remains to be seen how much rain falls at Chester today, I'm going to take a calculated gamble and suggest MISTER IMPATIENCE in the Chester Vase (2.45), in the hope that the rain comes in sufficient quantityto change the ground. He appears to be a horse that is extremely ground dependent, romping home in the mud on his final 2yo start at Nottingham and again very impressive when winning by a wide margin at Doncaster on his reappearance. He didn't look anything like the same horse on good ground at Epsom last time, but if plenty of rain falls he would be well overpriced given the impression he has created on testing ground. 1pt win MISTER IMPATIENCE (18-1 Bet Victor*, Coral* & 16-1 "


Notes:-
Gp3 Race for 3yos & Derby Trial in theory. Lack of GB Classic types shows with 5 runners, 4 x GB trained ORs89-100 + 1 x AOB STO after 3yo Mdn win in Ire ][ NR after Tip who was 10/1 so some of 18/1 to 11/ bec of that. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/05/2013 Spirit Of The Law R. A. Fahey ChalonerG5 CHES 10.4 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"Those betting at Chester today need to be aware of the fact that rain is forecast there from late morning until well into the afternoon. It might therefore be worth looking out for a horse that has a perfectly reasonable chance if the going remains as advertised (currently good to firm), but whose chance might be significantly increased if the amount of rain has a big impact on the ground, and SPIRIT OF THE LAW fits the bill in the last (5.00). After shaping with promise over a trip probably a shade beyond his best on his first start for Richard Fahey, he won in good style at Nottingham last time, a bit short of room for much of the straight but winning with a little in hand nonetheless. He's 4lb higher here (and his rider's claim has dropped from 7lb to 5lb in the interim), but there might be more to come for his new yard, especially if the ground does ease; his form figures on ground described as soft or heavy both according to the official going and Timeform reads 1221, and a couple of those efforts read really well; he finished second to Opinion in a class 3 race at Sandown that worked out well, and he easily beat Tilsworth Glenboy, who has a very good record in the mud, at the latter's favoured Yarmouth. One or two of his market rivals here might not want the ground to ease too much, but Spirit Of the Law looks fairly priced as the ground stands at present but could be well overpriced if it does ease considerably. 1pt win SPIRIT OF THE LAW (8-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/05/2013 Wakeup Little Suzy M. Botti CallanN GDWD 8 G

HT Selection Text:-

"At Goodwood (3.30) I think WAKEUP LITTLE SUZY is overpriced despite obvious concerns over the fact that this is her turf debut. She almost certainly hasn't been suited by the steady gallop over 7f on her last two starts, yet was ultimately impressive in disposing of admittedly moderate opposition at Wolverhampton last time, having been patently unsuited by the lack of pace on her previous start. This looks a hot little race but she doesn't look on a bad mark to start her handicapping career, will be suited by the return to 1m and she's in excellent hands. 1pt win WAKEUP LITTLE SUZY (16-1 Bet Victor*, StanJames* & 14-1 bet365*, Ladbrokes*, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/05/2013 Errigal Lad G. Woodward HopkinsM5 NOTT 6.1 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"ERRIGAL LAD (Nottingham 8.35) was a big eyecatcher on his seasonal reappearance over 5f at this track and has to be of interest now he returns to 6f at a course that clearly suits him very well. His career form figures over course and distance read 212, and he was patently unsuited the speed test over 5f on quick ground on his return, soon well outpaced at the back of the field but finishing very strongly from the rear, never able to land a blow. The return to this trip is sure to suit, and he can reverse the form with Thorpe Bay and My Time (who also caught the eye) over this longer trip. It's worth noting he improved significantly for his reappearance last year when pulling a long way clear of the progressive Prodigality (now rated 100) over this course and distance; he runs off the same mark of 51 tonight and a repeat of that effort would suffice. 2pts win ERRIGAL LAD (7-1 Bet Fred*, Bet Victor*, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
**NOTE = 2pts Win ][ 6 x NR & ELad WD as 2nd Fav ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/05/2013 Meetings Man HammonMD EavesT NOTT 10.2 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"The 1m2f handicap at Nottingham (7.25) is an interesting race, with Mubtadi understandably popular as he bids for his sixth win on the bounce, whilst veteran West End Lad should never be ruled out round here. However, I thought MEETINGS MAN ran very well last time in first-time cheekpieces, and although he hasn't won for a long time, he has dropped to a very handy mark. His Flat reappearance came at Beverley, but he didn't get the run of the race, held up wide at a track where racing on the inner, and preferably not too far back, has been an advantage on the round track lately. He shaped much the best of those that raced wide, beaten less than two lengths at the finish. His best form has come over longer distances, but he seemed a bit sharper in the headgear at Beverley and there should be a reasonable pace here with Mazij and West end Lad in the line-up. 1pt win MEETINGS MAN (10-1 general - use *BOG firm))"


Notes:-
Op 8/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/05/2013 Tinshu D. Haydn-Jones CarsonW ASCT 12 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"I've been waiting for TINSHU to run again at Ascot ever since she looked a desperately unlucky loser there last year, and although there's a doubt over the trip in the 1m4f handicap (2.05), she's a big enough price to make that a chance worth taking. She's at her best on Polytrack, with several decent runs at listed level on that surface, but she gave the impression she would have beaten the progressive Azeemah with a clear run on her most recent run at this venue last July. She will need luck in running as she'll presumably be held up at the rear to conserve her stamina, but she's long been the type to pop up at big prices (seven of her ten career wins have come at odds of 14-1 or bigger) and she looks overpriced once again here. 1pt win TINSHU (22-1 Stan James *BOG, 20-1 Bet365, Betfred, Coral, William Hill *BOG )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/05/2013 Lightning Cloud K. A. Ryan RyanA ASCT 7 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"LIGHTNING CLOUD ran a remarkable race on his return at Thirsk and can gain a deserved win in the Victoria Cup at Ascot today (3.50). He has run a number of excellent races over this course and distance but has had little luck with the draw. Having won on his first start at Ascot, he has been first home amongst the group of horses he raced with on three of his four subsequent starts over this course and distance (only flop over 7f here came in the middle of a poor run of form from the stable), and he was always clear of the group on his side when just held by Jack Dexter here last October. He was a huge eyecatcher on his return at Thirsk, slowly away and in an unpromising position turning for home but coming with a strong sustained run to snatch third, shaping as if he had returned at the top of his game. His stable is going really well now after a slow start to the season and providing his draw isn't against him once again he should prove a leading player. 1pt win LIGHTNING CLOUD (14-1 Stan James *BOG, 12-1 general - use *BOG firms )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/05/2013 Hay Dude E. M. Burke MetcalfeM3 HYDK 8 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"There's a cracking 1m 3yo handicap tucked away at the end of Haydock's card (5.15). Lion's Arch was one of my recent eyecatchers and he remains very well handicapped, but if the forecast rain arrives he might not be suited by conditions (ran moderately on easy ground on his second 2yo start). Preference is for HAY DUDE , who shaped a bit better than the distances suggest in a very hot handicap at Newbury last time, probably ending up away from what appeared to be the quicker strip of ground that day. That form is already starting to look strong, with third-placed Hasopop placed in Listed race subsequently and runner-up Here Comes When winning well at Chester this week. His stable has a good record at this track and he won't mind if the rain does get into the ground, having won on heavy going on his debut. If the rain arrived in really significant amounts then top weight Top Notch Tonto would make appeal at a huge price, but as things stand Hay Dude looks the value in the race. 1pt win HAY DUDE (12-1 Bet365 *BOG, 11-1 Paddy Power, Stan James *BOG, 10-1 general - use *BOG firms )"


Notes:-
Op 6/1 oc][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/05/2013 Tuna Papita RohautF ThulliezT LONG 8 HV

HT Selection Text:-

"With no Flat racing in the UK on Sunday - again - I'm looking at the French 1000 Guineas at Longchamp for today's bets. Both Guineas have fields of 20 runners and the one thing that's guaranteed is that there will be trouble in running and some hard luck stories, so it makes sense to try and find outsiders with a chance, and there are a couple in the fillies' event, the Poule d'Essai Des Pouliches (2.40), that might fit the bill. SHOW GORB's 2yo form was nowhere near the standard required, but she gives the impression she has improved this year, showing an impressive turn of foot to win a minor event on the all-weather on her reappearance, and then looking distinctly unlucky when getting no run in the Prix Imprudence. That form wasn't franked by the winner What A Name in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, but Show Gorb still looks overpriced from a good draw. The case for TUNA PAPITA rests largely on her trainer's terrific record in this race. Francois Rohaut has run seven fillies in the race, producing winners at 12-1 in 2004, 20-1 in 2006 (after the intervention of the stewards) and 16-1 Liliside, first past the post but disqualified in 2010; for good measure he also had 25-1 runner-up Toupie in 2005 and 20-1 runner-up Baine in 2010. Rohaut also saddled the 33-1 winner of the Poulains last year, and his runners in the Guineas clearly have to be taken very seriously. Tuna Papita shaped as if possibly in need of the run on her return, mown down by Kenhope after kicking around three lengths clear a furlong from home. The pedigree on her damside suggests the likely better ground today might suit, and she too looks overpriced. 1pt win TUNA PAPITA (40-1 Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Stan James, 33-1 general )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/05/2013 Show Gorb P. Sogorb BertrasF LONG 8 HV

HT Selection Text:-

"With no Flat racing in the UK on Sunday - again - I'm looking at the French 1000 Guineas at Longchamp for today's bets. Both Guineas have fields of 20 runners and the one thing that's guaranteed is that there will be trouble in running and some hard luck stories, so it makes sense to try and find outsiders with a chance, and there are a couple in the fillies' event, the Poule d'Essai Des Pouliches (2.40), that might fit the bill. SHOW GORB's 2yo form was nowhere near the standard required, but she gives the impression she has improved this year, showing an impressive turn of foot to win a minor event on the all-weather on her reappearance, and then looking distinctly unlucky when getting no run in the Prix Imprudence. That form wasn't franked by the winner What A Name in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, but Show Gorb still looks overpriced from a good draw. The case for TUNA PAPITA rests largely on her trainer's terrific record in this race. Francois Rohaut has run seven fillies in the race, producing winners at 12-1 in 2004, 20-1 in 2006 (after the intervention of the stewards) and 16-1 Liliside, first past the post but disqualified in 2010; for good measure he also had 25-1 runner-up Toupie in 2005 and 20-1 runner-up Baine in 2010. Rohaut also saddled the 33-1 winner of the Poulains last year, and his runners in the Guineas clearly have to be taken very seriously. Tuna Papita shaped as if possibly in need of the run on her return, mown down by Kenhope after kicking around three lengths clear a furlong from home. The pedigree on her damside suggests the likely better ground today might suit, and she too looks overpriced. 1pt win SHOW GORB (33-1 general )"


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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/05/2013 Go Far A. Bailey KeniryLP DONC 7 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"At first glance GO FAR looks more exposed than many of his rivals in the 7f handicap at Doncaster (3.15), but that might be misleading. He was the subject of a big gamble two outings ago at Wolverhampton on his first start after being gelded, but proved unsuited by the drop to 6f, never nearer than at the finish. His latest effort at Catterick came in the most steadily-run of the four 7f races run at the track that day, and Go Far almost got up to win despite being four or five lengths behind the two leaders (who eventually finished first and third) turning for home, beaten only on the nod after making up ground in really good style. There are plenty of likely improvers in opposition, but Go Far looks overpriced on the evidence of that latest effort. 1pt win GO FAR (12-1 Bet Victor*, Stan James*, 11-1 Coral* & 10-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/05/2013 Plenum D. R. Lanigan DurcanTE WDSR 8.3 G

HT Selection Text:-

"At Windsor David Lanigan's pair both look of interest in the two concluding handicaps (7.50 & 8.20) and it might be worth putting the pair in a double. PLENUM was one of my eyecatchers on his final 2yo start at Lingfield, forced so wide as to forfeit all chance but staying on steadily. He doesn't look overburdened on his handicap debut and his trainer has an excellent record in 3yo handicaps. PLUTOCRACY caught the eye staying on late over inadequate trips on his last two starts as a 2yo and his pedigree suggests he will be much better suited by today's extended 1m3f trip. 1pt win double PLENUM & PLUTOCRACY (3-1 & 7-2 BetFred, 3-1 & 100-30 bet365, 100-30 & 7-2 Paddy Power)"


Notes:-
*** NOTE THIS IS ONE HALF OF A WIN DOUBLE ][ 4TO & 3yo debut off OR70 brk156.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/05/2013 Plutocracy D. R. Lanigan DurcanTE WDSR 11.6 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"At Windsor David Lanigan's pair both look of interest in the two concluding handicaps (7.50 & 8.20) and it might be worth putting the pair in a double. PLENUM was one of my eyecatchers on his final 2yo start at Lingfield, forced so wide as to forfeit all chance but staying on steadily. He doesn't look overburdened on his handicap debut and his trainer has an excellent record in 3yo handicaps. PLUTOCRACY caught the eye staying on late over inadequate trips on his last two starts as a 2yo and his pedigree suggests he will be much better suited by today's extended 1m3f trip. 1pt win double PLENUM & PLUTOCRACY (3-1 & 7-2 BetFred, 3-1 & 100-30 bet365, 100-30 & 7-2 Paddy Power)"


Notes:-
*** NOTE THIS IS ONE HALF OF A WIN DOUBLE ][ 4TO & 3yo debut off OR70 brk193.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/05/2013 Tenbridge D. Haydn-Jones CarsonW CHEP 7.1 S

HT Selection Text:-

"It looks like Chepstow is going to get plenty of rain today, and with that in mind, TENBRIDGE might be the one in the classified event at 6.00. There are two other interesting runners in this race, my recent eyecatcher Peak Storm and Shomberg, as both have produced much their best form at this track, and I wouldnít rule either out, but neither are certain to relish a real slog if the going becomes bottomless. Tenbridge, on the other hand, has encountered soft ground on turf only once, when she won a much better race than this, a 0-75 handicap at Lingfield, pulling well clear with My Sharona, who went on to win two of her next three starts and is currently rated 89. Tenrbridge has been hit and miss on Polytrack since then, but there must be a chance she will bounce back if the ground is very testing, and she might prove a cut above 0-55 grade back on testing ground. 1pt win TENBRIDGE (7-1 bet365, BetVictor*, 13-2 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/05/2013 Jack Dexter J. S. Goldie TudhopeD YORK 6 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"JACK DEXTER has long looked the type to make up into a Pattern performer when there is give in the ground, and with conditions looking set to be in his favour at the time of writing, he can spring a minor surprise in the Duke Of York Stakes on the opening day of the Dante meeting (3.15). Itís easy to forget that he made his racecourse debut only just over a year ago, so quickly has he progressed through the sprinting ranks, and he returned as good as ever when winning a Listed race at Doncaster in March. The ground was probably too quick for him last time, when he faced a difficult task anyway under top weight in a race that has worked out extremely well, but conditions might be more in his favour this time; his form figures on ground officially described as soft or heavy read 111111, and the step up from high-class handicapper to Group sprinter is one that has been achieved by many horses in recent years. 1pt win JACK DEXTER (16-1 general)"


Notes:-
Gp2 race with top rated 118 & 5 others above 110 with JD on 109. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/05/2013 Right Touch R. A. Fahey ChalonerG5 YORK 7 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"RIGHT TOUCH appeared to show much-improved form when winning at Ripon last time and is worth the chance to show that run wasnít a fluke (York 5.00). That race was run in a time only marginally slower than that recorded by the really progressive older horses Baccarat and Sandy Lane half an hour earlier on the card, and was quicker than the other division of the older horsesí 0-85 handicap. His own race has not worked out quite as well as anticipated, but he pulled clear with Tumblewind (who raced on the far side), who has since confirmed the impression she created, and Right Touch, who was strong at the finish, should cope with the return to 7f. 1pt win RIGHT TOUCH (7-1 bet365, Ladbrokes*)"


Notes:-
3yo Hcap with Dream Maker 33/1 as OR89 tw (now with TDE not Dascombe) but how 89??. RT OR78 ][ 3rd tip from what HT thought was a Fast Time Race at RIPN = in the spirit of going back and reviewing outcomes = how does HT think that race worked out? If it was not as well as he thought then can he suggest the reason(s) for the difference? ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/05/2013 Moran Gra J. Morgan SmullenPJ YORK 8 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"On a day where I donít have any strong views at the current prices, it might be worth taking a flier on MORAN GRA in the 1m handicap at York (3.15) in the hope that he returns in the same form as when he was last seen. The negatives to his chance arenít hard to find, as he doesnít have any record of going well fresh and his stable hasnít been in much form lately, but heís priced accordingly and he has two or three pieces of form that would give him every chance here. In particular, he ran a blinder in the Cambridgeshire when last seen off a mark 3lb higher than todayís, one of two clear in the centre to stands side group a furlong out (that group provided the winner, the well-handicapped Bronze Angel, but still looked the unfavoured group). Heís not easy to predict and he could need the run here, but if heís ready to do himself justice heíd be overpriced here, and itís worth noting he was sent off a 100-1 chance in the Cambridgeshire. 1pt win MORAN GRA (25-1 general)"


Notes:-
Very Late Tip. Sent out Tweet usual time saying 1st Tip online next 5mins then a retraction Tweet saying the ones he liked were now at too short Prices so needed a 'major rethink'. One Tip finally put up at 11



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/05/2013 Llaregyb D. R. C. Elsworth O'NeillD NMKT 8 G

HT Selection Text:-

"LLAREGYB has threatened more than he has actually delivered to date, but he goes handicapping from a potentially favourable mark as a result and he can confirm previous promise at Newmarket today (2.55). After a promising debut at Goodwood, he didnít get home over Nottinghamís extended mile on his second start as a 2yo after racing keenly during the early stages. His 3yo debut came in what is often an informative maiden at Newbury, and he was just about last off the bridle, eventually shaping as if the run were needed, also probably not on the quickest part of the track that day. He ran well on his racecourse debut here, and although he needs to see his race out better than has been the case on his last two outings, he does look potentially well handicapped off a mark of 72. 1pt win LLAREGYB (6-1 bet365*, 11-2 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
Op 10/3 oc ][ Won by 4L ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/05/2013 Border Legend R. Charlton DoyleJ NMKT 8 G

HT Selection Text:-

"BORDER LEGEND was progressive last year, looks the type to win a big handicap this year, and with his reappearance effort much better than the bare form suggests, he looks interesting in the 1m handicap at Newmarket today (5.15). His effort when pulling clear with Lahaag on his final 3yo start reads very well, and he shaped much better than the result on his reappearance in the Newbury Spring Cup; held up towards the rear, he travelled well for a long way but found himself on the wrong part of the track, also stuck behind horses briefly, and although he was beaten a long way, he did finish clear of those horses that raced on the same part of the track as him. He should progress for that seasonal debut, itís unlikely we have seen the best of him yet, and along with Rockalong, who is a much shorter price, he looks the likeliest type in this field to progress to something better in time. 1pt win BORDER LEGEND (8-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/05/2013 Celtic Sixpence KentN StottK3 NMKT 6 G

HT Selection Text:-

"CELTIC SIXPENCE has shaped well on both starts for her current yard, but on each occasion she has probably raced away from the quickest part of the track, and she can take advantage of a favourable mark at Newmarket (5.50). She shaped especially well on her reappearance, and ended up rather isolated when finishing sixth last time. Her prominent racing style should be well suited by this track, and providing the ground doesnít dry up too much she should give a good account. 1pt win CELTIC SIXPENCE (10-1 bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Skybet,)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/05/2013 Rivellino E. M. Burke MorrisL NMKT 6 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"RIVELLINO looks a really progressive sprinter and can confirm the point by winning the 3yo sprint handicap at Newmarket today (2.55). He looked really unlucky not to win at Doncaster two outings ago when getting no luck in running behind Moviesta, who won at York this week, and the then did remarkably well to pull clear over 6f at Kempton last time given the early gallop was steady. He looks the type to progress into something better than a handicapper in time and after only five career starts there is probably plenty more to come. 1pt win RIVELLINO (7-1 Ladbrokes, Betfred *BOG, 8-1 Betvictor, Stan James, William Hill *BOG)"


Notes:-
Blocked inside last 2f as most of field concertinered ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/05/2013 Baltic Knight R. Hannon FortuneJ NMKT 7 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"The 3yo handicap won by BALTIC KNIGHT at Newbury was run in a very quick time and is already working out exceptionally well, and given there don't appear to be too many likely rivals for frontrunning duties at a track where the horses on the pace often appear to be given too much rope, he looks the one to beat in the King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket (3.30). That Newbury race was run in a time that was only marginally slower than the Greenham Stakes run on ground that might have dried out a shade the following day, and the field finished well strung out. Baltic Knight gave 13lb to Here Comes When, who was a smooth winner at Chester next time, and he gives the impression he has returned an improved performer. Dundonnell is favourite on the strength of his 2yo form, but he has a 7lb penalty for his Group three win and after an uninspiring return, albeit after reportedly suffering an interrupted preparation, I'm a little surprised he's favourite. 1pt win BALTIC KNIGHT (100-30 Bet365, William Hill *BOG, 3-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/05/2013 Perennial C. B. Hills DrowneSJ NMKT 14 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"PERENNIAL has shaped as if worth another try beyond 1m4f on a couple of occasions and can go well in the 1m6f handicap at Newmarket today (2.20). He made late progress against a pace bias over 1m4f on his final start, and was totally unsuited by the demands of Epsom on his return, held up in a race where the order barely changed throughout, the first four horses turning for home unchallenged by the remainder. Perennial did make a little late progress again, and his sole previous run beyond 1m4f came on unsuitably soft ground. He might have found his level now after looking so promising as a 2yo (beat Encke on his debut and ran really well in a Group Three event at this track), and this could be his trip. Caravan Rolls On, who looked so unlucky on his final start, is of obvious interest, but he's priced accordingly. 1pt win PERENNIAL (9-1 Bet365, William Hill *BOG, 8-1 Boylesports, Betfred, Paddy Power, Stan James, Ladbrokes *BOG )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/05/2013 Love Island R. M. Whitaker ChalonerG5 RIPN 6 GSS

HT Selection Text:-

"LOVE ISLAND has shaped as if better than ever in her two starts this season, and although she steps up in class in the fillies' sprint handicap at Ripon today (3.10), she might be up to the task. She did really well to win on her reappearance over 5f at Doncaster, travelling well and finding plenty having had to wait for a run, and she again shaped very well at Thirsk last time; racing on what appeared to be the unfavoured far side (six of the first seven home raced on the stands side), she again travelled well but had to be switched towards the centre of the track to make her challenge and gave the impression she was still in top form, second home on the far side. The winner of the far-side group, Rothesay Chancer, was only just touched off next time having looked all over the winner, and the third home on the far side, Bosun Breeze, ran very well when runner-up over the same course and distance yesterday. There is a slight concern about the going, given her two recent efforts have come on quick ground, but Love Island has twice run well over this course and distance on rain-softened ground when the going stick reading was similar to that of this morning; the return to this trip should be no problem and she has potentially a very good draw. 1pt win LOVE ISLAND (16-1 Bet365, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill *BOG )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/05/2013 Tatting C. A. Dywer GolamS SWEL 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"The 1m handicap at Southwell today (5.00) features some of the usual suspects with proven form (notably Mataajir, who will be suited by the return to 1m), plus two or three wild cards on pedigree. The US-bred Patís Legacy, who has experience of dirt from his time in the USA, is of obvious interest, but at much bigger prices there are a couple of sons of Street Cry who are making their debuts on Fibresand, TATTING and MEN DONíT CRY, and I reckon at double-figure prices the percentage call is split stakes on each. Tatting looks fairly handicapped on his best Polytrack form, but his sire Street Cry has a vastly superior strike rate on Fibresand (over 28%) to Polytrack (less than 13%), and the sireís record with horses switching to Fibresand for the first time having raced elsewhere before is six wins and four places from 15 runs. Tatting tends to travel strongly, which should help round here, and although his wide draw isnít ideal he looks worth chancing. Men Donít Cry, despite being a maiden, has plenty of placed form, appeals on pedigree for similar reasons and should come on for his recent reappearance over what is probably an inadequate trip. 1pt win TATTING (16-1 bet365, 14-1 general) "


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/05/2013 Men Don't Cry E. B. De Giles PearceS3 SWEL 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"The 1m handicap at Southwell today (5.00) features some of the usual suspects with proven form (notably Mataajir, who will be suited by the return to 1m), plus two or three wild cards on pedigree. The US-bred Patís Legacy, who has experience of dirt from his time in the USA, is of obvious interest, but at much bigger prices there are a couple of sons of Street Cry who are making their debuts on Fibresand, TATTING and MEN DONíT CRY, and I reckon at double-figure prices the percentage call is split stakes on each. Tatting looks fairly handicapped on his best Polytrack form, but his sire Street Cry has a vastly superior strike rate on Fibresand (over 28%) to Polytrack (less than 13%), and the sireís record with horses switching to Fibresand for the first time having raced elsewhere before is six wins and four places from 15 runs. Tatting tends to travel strongly, which should help round here, and although his wide draw isnít ideal he looks worth chancing. Men Donít Cry, despite being a maiden, has plenty of placed form, appeals on pedigree for similar reasons and should come on for his recent reappearance over what is probably an inadequate trip. 1pt win MEN DONíT CRY (16-1 bet365, Skybet, Stan James) "


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/05/2013 Mister Marcasite M. E. Brittain SousaSD NOTT 8.3 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"MISTER MARCASITE is probably better judged on his run two outings ago than his latest effort and he can bounce back to form in the 1m classified event at Nottingham (5.20). A heavy-ground winner as a 2yo, he shaped really well over this course and distance on his penultimate outing; he helped force a pace that was much too quick, but still managed to kick a couple of lengths clear 2f out before his earlier exertions took their toll, still finishing a highly creditable third (his fellow pacesetter was tailed off in 11th place, but bounced back to finish third at 33-1 next time). He ended up three wide and pulling hard at Beverley next time, eventually carting his rider into a prominent position, and that effort is not hard to forgive, especially as that was the second time he has disappointed on quick ground at that track. There are some interesting and unexposed rivals in opposition, notably Plenum, who could easily come on enormously for his reappearance effort at Windsor last week given his trainer suggested he needed the run badly shortly beforehand, but if he settles better here Mister Marcasite could spring a surprise. 1pt win MISTER MARCASITE (12-1 Betfred, Coral, 11-1 BetVictor, 10-1 bet365, Boylesports, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Opened 6/1 oc & tchd 8/1 ][ CIR Tracked leader, led over 2f out, ridden and ran on opened 6/1 touched 9/1 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/05/2013 Stepping Ahead E. M. Burke HarleyM PFCT 8 G

HT Selection Text:-

"At Pontefract (7.50) STEPPING AHEAD had the run of the race when making all at Pontefract last time, but he still looked extremely green despite his wide-margin win, and although he needs to improve up in class, there could be plenty more to come after just two starts. He was well on top at the finish at Nottingham despite wandering and carrying his head a shade awkwardly, which may well have been still down to inexperience. He broke notably smartly from the stalls at Nottingham and that should stand him in good stead here as he should be able either to lead or adopt a prominent position. This is probably a hot race but his stable remains in good form and he might be able to find the required improvement. 1pt win STEPPING AHEAD (13-2 BetVictor, Stan James, 6-1 Boylesports, Paddy Power, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
OR77 1st Hcap in 5 rnr race with Tw on OR82. Other 4 all winners with 3 x Arab owned & 1 x F Hay, with better and/or well supported trnrs. ][ Won by 7L ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/05/2013 Derfenna Art DurackS FahyJP LNGA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"DERFENNA ART progressed really well on Polytrack last winter, and after a satisfactory reappearance on turf, he should go well in the 1m handicap at Lingfield (5.00). His two course and distance efforts when runner-up in December both read well; he pulled clear with Avertis, who won off a 5lb higher mark next time, and he produced what was probably a career-best effort on his next and most recent Polytrack start, this time chasing home Whispering Warrior, who won his next two starts, the second off a 10lb higher mark. Derfenna Art ran creditably at Chepstow on his reappearance, a bit isolated towards the far rail, and back on Polytrack with that under his belt he looks interesting. The big danger might be Emmuska, who won both course and distance starts here off similar marks and makes her debut for Clive Cox, though she is returning from a 258-day absence. 1pt win DERFENNA ART (7-1 Paddy Power, 13-2 Betfred, Boylesports, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Emmuska won at 7/1 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/05/2013 Mary's Pet L. A. Carter FoxK SWEL 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"MARYíS PET hasnít been the most consistent performer over her career, but she has run really well on both starts at Southwell and looks of definite interest back on Fibresand today with cheekpieces refitted (5.20). Her form on Polytrack has been in and out, winning three outings ago over 7f before folding tamely last time, but she has really impressed with the way she travels on Fibresand, giving the impression on both starts that sheís a bit better than the usual class 6 performers at Southwell. She blitzed the field when winning on her first start here last May, and again shaped very well here two outings ago; forced a bit wide early from the highest draw, she again showed good speed, but was unlucky to run into the well-backed Pull The Pin, another who looks to be a Southwell specialist. The pair were well clear for most of the straight, and although Ridgeway Hawk made late progress off the strong gallop, he might again find himself too far adrift from Maryís Pet, who has much more early pace on this surface. 2pts win MARYíS PET (8-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
***Note 2pts Win ][ Drift 4/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
23/05/2013 Swift Bounty A. P. Jarvis MurphyMJ5 GDWD 9 G

HT Selection Text:-

"SWIFT BOUNTY was a big eyecatcher on his reappearance at Ascot in a race not run to suit and can continue his stableís good form at Goodwood this afternoon. Having shaped with some promise in three starts as a 2yo, he was sent off at 33-1 on his return, but belied those odds with the way he travelled towards the back of the field. However, he was twice denied a clear run before staying on steadily in the closing stages, albeit with a slightly awkward head carriage. King Of Danes, who made all in that race, is unlikely to have things his own way up front with Mysterial (made all in first-time headgear on his reappearance) in opposition, and Swift Bounty might be able to pounce later, with the step up in trip looking in his favour; his stable has had winners at 12-1, 14-1 and 15-2 from just 8 runners in the last week. 1pt win SWIFT BOUNTY (9-2 bet365, Bet Victor, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
23/05/2013 Gravitational C. F. Wall SandersS HYDK 7 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"At Haydock (4.40) GRAVITATIONAL is worth the chance to confirm the promise of his first start for Chris Wall. He shaped really well on his debut for the yard at Leicester, despite once again pulling hard, not getting the clearest of runs through and his rider just doing enough to ensure second once the winner had flown up the stands rail. He needs to go the right way from that effort, as the bare form isnít out of the ordinary, but he is in good hands, and although itís a concern that the stable hasnít had a winner yet in 2013, most of the horses have run as well as might have been expected. Reconsider Baby, from a stable in top form, is another to consider with her latest effort working out well. 1pt win GRAVITATIONAL (11-2 Bet Victor, Stan James*, 5-1 general with other B.O.G firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
26/05/2013 Kikonga L. M. Cumani HughesR NMKT 12 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"KIKONGA's progress stalled last time at Newbury, but she was keen and pulled for her head, and she might be worth the chance to resume her progress in the 1m4f Listed fillies event at Newmarket today (3.10). She was a revelation on her first start over 1m4f at Ascot two outings ago, always up with the decent gallop and having the race in safekeeping from some way out, the time and tempo of the race very similar to that recorded in a valuable 0-105 handicap run over the same course and distance the following day. She saw a lot of daylight and raced very keenly during the early stages on her first start in Listed company at Newbury, and that probably told at the business end of the race. Richard Hughes takes over today, and he faces a tricky decision as to what to do from stall 11, but if she settles better today this strong-travelling filly, who remains unexposed at 1m4f (dam from a good staying family and a half-sister to Milan) could cause a minor surprise. 1pt win KIKONGA (14/1 StanJames*, 12/1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
OR93 3yo Fil in 3yo+ Race. Hughes 2nd on only previous ride on her & takes over from Milczarek who rode last 2 times incl 'revelation' off OR85 at ASCT. Why wouldn't HT note his common point about 'ASCT form not travellig' in this case. Often selects horses back at ASCT so why isn't ASCT form Tv to NMKT a -ve? ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
31/05/2013 Karam Albaari J. R. Jenkins TylickiF EPSM 8.5 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"KARAM ALBAARI showed a glimmer of promise on his recent return from a long absence and although he could go either way on the back of that effort, he looks worth chancing at a big price in the 1m handicap at Epsom today (3.20) for a stable that has done well with a tiny number of runners at this meeting. He was a smart performer as a 2yo, winning on his debut and beaten less than 3 lengths in the Group Two Champagne Stakes on his second start (not disgraced on his final juvenile start in the Group One Racing Post Trophy). He flopped as a 3yo and has clearly had his problems, but there was some encouragement in his return over what is surely an inadequate 7f at Yarmouth last month, ridden along a long way out but staying on nicely into sixth in the closing stages under a hands-and-heels ride. This is a much better race and heíll need to come on considerably for that, but heís potentially well handicapped on his 2yo form these days, and trainer John Jenkins doesnít seem to have social runners at this meeting; he has run only three horses at the Derby meeting in the last 15 years, Fruit Of Glory finishing fourth of 20 at 8-1 in 2005, Little White Lie winning this race at 11-1 in 2008, and Mawaakef beaten a neck by the very smart Highland Knight in this contest last year at 20-1,the pair pulling a long way clear. 1pt win KARAM ALBAARI (33-1 bet365, BetVictor, Stan James, 25-1 Boylesports, Coral, Ladbrokes*)"


Notes:-
First Tipping day back after 1 week off over Bank Hol ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
31/05/2013 Biography R. Hannon DaviesWT5 BATH 5 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"At Bath (5.50) BIOGRAPHY looks the interesting one in the 2yo maiden. At first glance his Newbury debut run looks worthless, beaten almost 20 lengths and beating only one home. However, that was just about the hottest 2yo maiden run this season (has thrown up seven individual winners and every horse that has run from the race, including those beaten a long way, has run well since). Moreover, Biography showed good speed to halfway in that race but found himself racing against the stands rail, which was definitely not the place to be at that meeting, and he faded badly in the closing stages. The fact that he started at 10-1 stable second string (much shorter than the useful Malachim Mist, who was a 22-1 chance) in such a strong maiden says plenty, and itís likely heís capable of much better than he showed that day. Godolphinís Emirates Flyer is a warm favourite here, and heís likely to have ability, but Saeed Bin Suroorís record with 2yos making their debut over 5f is 1-20 since 1996, which hardly makes him an attractive betting proposition at around 5-4. 2pts win BIOGRAPHY (13-2 BetVictor, Coral, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
*** NOTE = 2pts win ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/06/2013 Libertarian E. M. Burke BuickW EPSM 12 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"LIBERTARIAN can defy concerns about the track in the Derby at Epsom today (4.00). Since his Dante win, there has probably been more negative than positive press about his Derby prospects, understandably given how green he has looked on all three starts to date, and there's certainly a chance he will struggle during the early and middle stages of the race, especially on such a demanding track. However, there must be every chance that the race will be run at a really strong gallop; in a race where five stoutly-bred Aidan O'Brien representatives face a warm favourite whose sole question mark appears to be stamina, it seems very likely that the Ballydoyle team will ensure that the race turns into a real test at the trip. The question mark for Libertarian is probably whether he will be able to keep close enough to land a blow, but if he's still in contention 3f out he'll become a very interesting player, as he shaped at York as if the extended 1m2f was a bare minimum, which is very much in keeping with his pedigree. The time of the Dante was good and whilst it remains to be seen how he will handle the track, there could be plenty more improvement to come from a horse that made his debut less than two months ago. 1pt win LIBERTARIAN (16-1 general - use *BOG firms )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/06/2013 First Avenue L. J. Mongan JennerC7 EPSM 12 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"FIRST AVENUE is undeniably quirky, but he saved his best for Epsom under Charlotte Jenner last year and the combination look overpriced again today in the 1m4f handicap (4.50). He was runner-up on both starts here last year, once over 1m2f and once over 1m4f, but what's worth noting is that he was unlucky enough to run into horses that went on to prove themselves a long way ahead of their marks; Aiken was racing off 91 when just holding off First Avenue last April, but is now rated 112, whilst Universal, who was rated 88 when beating him in August, is now rated 114, and on both occasions the front pair pulled well clear of the remainder. First Avenue ran off 86 on that second occasion and is down to 82 now, and whilst he has never really looked straightforward, this could be his day back at his local track and he makes each-way appeal. 1pt each way FIRST AVENUE (16-1 Bet365 *BOG, 14-1 Boylesports, Betfred, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, William Hill *BOG )"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 1pt EW = 2pts Bet ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
02/06/2013 Elusivity D. O'Meara TudhopeD LONG 5 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"ELUSIVITY shaped really well under a big weight at York last time and can win the Prix du Gros- Chene at Longchamp today (4.35). He has always threatened to develop into a top sprinter, though not always delivering quite as much as he had promised by the way he travelled in some of his races, but he has been with David OíMeara for just two starts and the early signs are promising. After shaping quite well on his debut for the yard in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket, he gave the impression he was approaching top form at York eight days ago; held up travelling well as usual, he found himself on the wrong part of the track in terms of where the pace and race unfolded, surging past the leaders on his flank in good style but still a couple of lengths down on the leaders on the other flank when he had done so, eventually finishing a highly creditable fourth. He still finished in front of Duke Of Firenze, who won the Dash at Epsom yesterday, and all in all Elusivityís effort was highly creditable under 9-10. Itís worth pointing out that Smoothtalkinrascal, who made the same switch from Brian Meehan to David OíMeara, has already improved massively for his new yard, looking a Pattern-class sprinter when 2nd in the Dash, and itís interesting that OíMeara is willing to take on the likes of Catcall with Elusivity, having gone very close to beating him with Move In Time at Longchamp last month. Elusivity might possibly go off at a bigger price in France, but he looks value at this morningís prices with British bookmakers anyway. 1pt win ELUSIVITY (9/1 Ladbrokes)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/06/2013 One Last Dream R. J. Hodges ProbertD CHEP 6.1 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"ONE LAST DREAM ran well last time and looks interesting returned to Chepstow this afternoon (3.00) given how well he has run at that track in the past. He tried to make all at Salisbury last time, collared only by the progressive Levi Draper in a big field, and he has shaped very well on both starts at this track, showing his first worthwhile form when a staying-on third over 5f last April and then a wide-margin winner overt this course and distance in August. The concern is that that effort came on soft ground, but course form at Chepstow is so important it might be worth chancing him despite the drying conditions. 1pt win ONE LAST DREAM (12-1 Coral*, Betfred*, Bet Victor*, Paddy Power*, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Class 5, Tw OR68, OLD off OR56, 4yo 1-17 Career ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/06/2013 Joe Packet J. G. Portman CallanN WDSR 6 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"JOE PACKET didn't show much on his reappearance at Newbury, but his stable has hit form recently and he might be able to bounce back to form at Windsor (7.30), a track where he has run very well from out of the blue in the past. He has no real record of going well fresh and the stable was 0-41 in 2013 going into that race, but having had a winner later on that Newbury card Jonny Portman has had two more since, including a 25-1 shot at Epsom's Derby meeting, and the stable looks to be finding form now. Moreover, on three occasions Joe Packet has run really well here on the back of a poor recent effort elsewhere; he was runner-up at 50-1 here on his second career start, won here at 14-1 in 2011 having finished out of the first ten on his three previous starts that season, and last season, having barely beaten a horse home on his first two starts, he again returned to form at this venue when a good fourth in a class 2 handicap. It's possible he'll need another run before hitting his peak, but he's fairly handicapped and might once again be able to bely his odds at Windsor. 1pt win JOE PACKET (18-1 bet365*, 16-1 general - use BOG firms)"


Notes:-
PortmanJG ivwd bef rc and said JP needs 2-3 runs to find form each season. This was the 2nd and he thought JP still short of his best form = Making it sound like he'd be happy with an ok development run. Int to note that this the 2nd eg of what the trnr says in ivw cutting across HT's analysis (rarely hear ivws for non 2yo rcs). = HT doesn't ask the trnrs beforehand & works off his own take. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
04/06/2013 Flynn's Boy R. Guest CallanN YARM 7 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"On a day that doesnít make much appeal to me from a punting point of view, FLYNNíS BOY should go well in the 7f handicap at Yarmouth (6.55). He shaped well at Newmarket last time over 6f, coming from last place and readily passing the horses on his flank, but mown down late on by one racing up the centre of the track. Flynnís Boy has gone up 3lb for that effort, but he has been competitive from this kind of mark before and has run well at this track before; he was one of my eyecatchers last year when fourth here under a big weight last July, and his subsequent effort when third to Zacynthus and Mr David worked out well. 1pt win FLYNNíS BOY (5-1 Betfred, 9-2 bet365*, 4-1 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
Op 10/3 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/06/2013 Gucci D'Oro D. M. Simcock LaneM SWEL 14 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"GUCCI DíORO is still a maiden, but appeals as the type to take to Fibresand and can go well in Soutwellís 1m6f handicap (2.00) for his in-form stable. He has been an expensive failure on a couple of occasions since finishing a good second at Kempton last August, but there might be better to come on Fibresand; his sire, Medaglia díOro, was a high-class dirt horse and most of his Stakes performers in the US have come on that surface. Whilst the record of his progeny at Southwell so far stands at 1-6, his three individual representatives on Fibresand to date have all run at least as well as on other surfaces (Yahilwa was a wide-margin winner there last month) and Iíd expect his record to improve as more of his offspring run on Fibresand. His trainer David Simcock is in excellent form, with four winners from his last eight runners and six from his last nineteen, and in first-time blinkers off a mark of just 54, this might be his best chance to get off the mark. 1pt win GUCCI DíORO (4-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
4yo Mdn off OR54. S Manana owned. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/06/2013 Legendary E. F. Vaughan FallinK KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Kempton (7.30) LEGENDARY is interesting now he returns to the all-weather. He was well held at Nottingham on his return, but his stableís runners often need their first run of the season, and the yardís horses are running well enough at the moment (winner and four seconds from last six runners). The key to Legendary might be the return to Polytrack; having gone down by a head on his debut at Lingfield, he won readily at Wolverhampton on his second start, but hasnít been seen on this surface since. The progeny of his sire, Exceed And Excel, have a very good record on Polytrack (16% strike rate at Kempton) and Kieren Fallon has been a successful and selective booking for Ed Vaughan (8/23, +16pts); this will be the first time Fallon has ridden for Vaughan since he rode Legendary in a much better race at Newmarket last year, when he shaped very well, and fitted with cheekpieces Legendary might be able to return to form back on this surface. 1pt win LEGENDARY (12-1 bet365, 10-1 Betfred, Totesport)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/06/2013 Cross The Boss D. O'Meara TudhopeD THSK 7 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"At first glance CROSS THE BOSS (Thirsk 6.00) looks short enough in the betting at first glance given he was well beaten only five days ago, but there are plausible excuses for that effort and he can confirm the promise of his debut effort for David OíMeara in what looks a weak race at a track that should suit. He pulled much too hard off that steady early pace at Newcastle last time, possibly also finding the ground not as quick as ideal, and heís better judged on his first run for his current yard, when he shaped as if ahead of his mark, travelling smoothly and finding plenty on that occasion having been forced to wait for a run. He drops to 7f today, and should find this course and distance ideal given they usually go a good pace round here, and with Dhhamaan and Deliberation running this race should be no exception; Cross The Boss appeals as the type to flourish when encountering a good gallop and he can provide yet another winner for a yard that could hardly be in better form. 1pt win CROSS THE BOSS (11-4 Betfred, Boylesports, 5-2 BetVictor, Paddy Power, Stan James*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/06/2013 First Post D. Haydn-Jones O'NeillD SDWN 8.1 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"FIRST POST ran no sort of race at Ascot last time and there are a couple more potential negatives (would probably appreciate more give in the ground and is drawn wide), but he still looks overpriced in the 1m handicap at Sandown (7.25) given how well he goes at the track. He has run the odd shocker in his career, but has usually bounced back quickly, so it shouldnít be surprising if thatís the case now he returns to this venue; his form figures here read 13314522, all of those efforts coming in competitive class 3 or class 4 handicaps, and for six of those eight runs his handicap mark was the same or higher than 79, his current rating. Heís probably at his bets with a bit of give in the ground, but he seems able to overcome lively going at this uphill finish; some of his form here reads extremely well, not far behind the likes of Educate and Highland Colori here last year on ground officially described as good to firm, also narrowly beaten in this race two years ago,and whilst he clearly has some questions to answer after his Ascot flop he might be able to bounce back at a track that clearly suits very well. 1pt win FIRST POST (14-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/06/2013 Aneedh W. J. Haggas McDonaldJames NMKJ 8 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"ANEEDH probably didn't beat much when getting off the mark at Redcar last time, but he was much more impressive than the bare margins suggest and can find the necessary progress to win the 0-75 classified event at Newmarket today (4.55). After two good efforts on Polytrack, he had an obvious chance of winning that Redcar maiden, but still impressed with the way he went through the race, travelling all over his rivals from some way out and just nudged out to beat the runner-up. The time of that race was a second slower than the preceding class 5 handicap, but that race was run at a much stronger gallop and Aneedh appeared to have plenty more in the locker. The likely quicker ground is a question mark, but from the limited evidence on his sire Lucky Story it might well suit, Annedh's trainer William Haggas is in excellent form, and his jockey James McDonald has looked very tidy in his limited stay to date. 1pt win ANEEDH (7-1 Stan James, Coral *BOG, 13-2 Betvictor *BOG )"


Notes:-
Classified Race with 12 x 3yo all racing off 9-0 and ORs in range OR73-5 except for Beau Select on OR67 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/06/2013 Line Of Reason P. T. Midgley FallonK PFCT 6 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"At Pontefract (7.35) a case can be made for plenty in the 3yo sprint handicap, but LINE OF REASON might be able to bounce back on quicker ground. He wouldn't be the first horse to flop badly at York in recent years, but there are possible excuses for that latest effort anyway (first for his current yard), as the going was on the soft side and the trip was probably beyond his best. He's probably better judged on his previous effort on quick ground at Doncaster, where he finished his race really well, going down only narrowly to Moviesta, who won a competitive York 5f handicap next time. Subsequently sold for 80,000gns, he might be able to return to form on this faster surface with Kieren Fallon, who rides this track so well, in the saddle. Bluegrass Blues, who has twice been better than the bare result in valuable Newmarket handicaps, is another to consider at decent odds. 1pt win LINE OF REASON (12-1 Betvictor, Stan James, Ladbrokes, William Hill *BOG )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/06/2013 My Name Is Rio M Dods CallanN HYDK 6 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"This column yesterday highlighted the opportunities that can be presented by ignoring one bad run on rain-softened ground at York, and MY NAME IS RIO might be another similar candidate in the 6f handicap at Haydock today (5.00). Punters have homed in on Brazen and Huntsmans Close this morning, understandably as both caught the eye last time, but My Name Is Rio was just as big an eyecatcher on his seasonal debut in a race at Nottingham, repeatedly denied a clear run and looking unlucky not to win. That form worked out extremely well - the winner and sixth pulled well clear in a Thirsk handicap next time, the runner-up won next time, and the seventh Moviesta won his next two starts. My Name Is Rio flopped on easier ground next time but should be suited by the step up to 6f and can bounce back to form back on quicker ground. 1pt win MY NAME IS RIO (12-1 Betfred, Stan James, Coral *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/06/2013 Bogsnog K. Stubbs LeeG HYDK 6 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"In the same race as My Name Is Rio (Haydock 5.00), there's another horse that I think is overpriced for similar reasons and I'd suggest backing BOGSNOG as well. I thought he was very impressive when winning at Newcastle over 5f on his seasonal reappearance, admittedly having the big advantage of racing on the favoured rail for much of the race but having to be switched rounds a rival to challenge and surging home. He almost certainly wasn't suited by soft ground at Hamilton next time, but in any case that was a very hot race, the first three all winning next time and the fourth and eighth both runner-up on their next start. Back on quick ground, he too looks overpriced for his relatively small stable. 1pt win BOGSNOG (14-1 Boylesports, Betvictor, Coral *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/06/2013 Tribal Myth K. A. Ryan BurkeJ3 BVLY 9.9 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"At Beverley (5.30) TRIBAL MYTH might be able to bounce back to form at a track where he goes very well. He has shown little in two starts this year, but he raced very wide on his reappearance and he had the headgear left off over a trip that is too far from him last time. With blinkers back on and a reasonable draw, he might be a different proposition; all four career wins have come here (plus five placed efforts) whereas he has no wins and only two places from 17 Flat runs elsewhere, and he has dropped to a very favourable mark. 1pt win TRIBAL MYTH (10-1 Betfred, Betvictor *BOG - 9-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/06/2013 Demora M. Appleby MullenA NOTT 5.1 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"DEMORA shaped well on her reappearance at Southwell and can confirm that promise in the 5f handicap at Nottingham today (3.45). I wouldn't normally be keen on backing a horse back on turf following a good run on Fibresand, but Demora simply looks progressive, having won her last two starts of last season on turf on contrasting types of ground. This is a stronger race than those she has previously contested on turf, and she might be taken on for the lead, but it bodes well that she made such good progress as a 3yo in what is traditionally a difficult season for sprinters, her form figures here read 121 (albeit in much lesser races) and there could be plenty more to come. 1pt win DEMORA (11-2 Coral *BOG, 5-1 Bet365, Boylesports, Betfred, Betvictor *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/06/2013 Odeliz E. M. Burke TudhopeD SWEL 8.3 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"ODELIZ was one of the biggest eyecatchers I've seen this season on her debut and she has to be of interest in the fillies' maiden at Nottingham (4.15). She was held up towards the rear in a race that in my opinion wasn't run at an especially strong pace (slowest time to the 4f pole by some way of the three 1m races run that day, and Odeliz was around 12-15 lengths behind the leader at that point), but she did extremely well to make up as much ground as she did, making significant headway to finish on the heels of the first three under a considerate ride. She very much looks the type to progress and although this is potentially a hot race, she looked way better than the bare form at Haydock. 2pts win ODELIZ ( 5-1 Ladbrokes, Paddy Power *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
*** NOTE = 2pts win. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/06/2013 Croquembouche E. B. De Giles KeniryLP WDSR 10 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"CROQUEMBOUCHE shaped as if back in form at Pontefract last time over a trip that is probably short of his best, and he should have conditions in his favour at Windsor this evening (7.30). He took a couple of runs to hit form last season, winning when stepped up to 1m2f for the first time at Folkestone, having a bit in hand at the finish off a mark of 70. He was twice placed off marks of 77 later in the season, and he has been dropped right back down to 72 after that latest effort. That looks generous, as he shaped quite well at Pontefract; he tried to lead but was a bit slowly away and ended up three wide all the to the home turn, faring best of the three front-runners in a race run at a reasonable gallop. There are a couple more potential prominent runners in the field who might spoil his chance, notably Claude Monet, but I still think from stall 1 Croquembouche should be able to get to the front and he might be very hard to peg back in the home straight. 1pt win CROQUEMBOUCHE (12-1 Coral, Paddy Power, William Hill)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/06/2013 Flexible Flyer H. Morrison HughesR KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"FLEXIBLE FLYER shaped really well on his sole previous Polytrack start, and although heís favourite at Kempton this evening (8.40) heíll be hard to beat if reproducing that previous course and distance effort in April. He was unlucky to run into Twenty One Choice that day, one of the most progressive Polytrack handicappers in the past 12 months, and although he couldnít prevent the latter from recording his fourth successive win, Flexible Flyer did really well to finish second, comfortably clear of the remainder in a truly-run race, the time very good (only the class 2 0-105 handicap won by Grey Mirage has been quicker over course and distance this year). Iím hoping that Richard Hughes will be fit to ride him tonight (gave up some of his rides yesterday after reportedly pulling a muscle), as Flexible Flyer can be keen during the early stages and Hughes is just the man to get the best from him, but he has a good draw to help his rider overcome that problem. 2pts win FLEXIBLE FLYER (3-1 bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, Paddy Power, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
NOTE*** 2pts Win ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/06/2013 Fiducia S. Dow HughesR KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"FIDUCIA has shaped much better than the bare result on her two starts this year and can go well at decent odds in the 7f 3yo filliesí handicap (9.10). She has travelled strongly on both runs, giving the impression she is well suited to this surface, but on her reappearance over this course and distance she shaped as if in need of the run, making a big move 2f out before her run flattened out. She then ended up with too much to do at Lingfield last time, trapped behind horses and then not handling the bend that well as the winner kicked on, before finishing with a flourish when the race was all over. She looks up to winning on Polytrack when things go right, and although she need to progress here (latest run was only in a claimer) there looks to be more to come from her. 1pt win FIDUCIA (11-1 Betfred, Paddy Power, 10-1 Coral, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/06/2013 Silvas Romana W. M. Brisbourne KellySW CHEP 8.1 G

HT Selection Text:-

"The 1m filliesí handicap at Chepstow this evening (6.40) is an interesting little race, but the value at this morningís prices looks to be SILVAS ROMANA. Sheís thoroughly exposed, but her ideal circumstances appear to be either racing at this track or with plenty of cut in the ground, and with rain forecast around lunchtime in the area, she might get both today. Sheís a bit unlucky not to be unbeaten in three starts here, because as well as winning two of those races, she shaped much better than the result when fifth in a draw bias race on the third occasion, finishing well clear of those she raced close to on what was definitely the unfavoured stands side of the track that day. Thereís not much between her and Lady Sylvia on last yearís course and distance form, but Silvas Romana is a bigger price and might have been teed up for this race given her previous course form. 1pt win SILVAS ROMANA (11-1 Coral, 10-1 bet365, 9-1 Betfred*)"


Notes:-
Drift 11/2 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/06/2013 Presburg J. M. Tuite KeniryLP SDWN 10 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"At Sandown (4.20) PRESBURG is interesting after looking extremely unlucky over this course and distance last time. He came into that race in good form, having won at Brighton on his previous start (form which has worked out well), and travelled strongly almost throughout, but was continually denied a clear run up the far rail in the closing stages, also losing momentum as a result, still finishing a creditable third. Heís up in grade here but clearly at the top of his game, and runs off the same mark as last time; heíll need better luck in running but there seems no reason why he shouldnít run well. 1pt win PRESBURG (13-2 Coral, 6-1 BetVictor, Stan James,* 11-2 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/06/2013 War Lord D. O'Meara NolanD EDIN 8 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"At Musselburgh (2.20) WAR LORD can return to form back on better ground. He shaped as if well ahead of his mark when pulling clear along with Krupskaya on his reappearance at Thirsk, the time compared with the other 7f races on the card (run off similar fractions) suggesting he would be well capable of winning off his new mark. However, the first two home ran over the same course and distance on very testing ground next time, and although Krupskaya franked the form, War Lord was well below form, the reason presumably being the going. He doesnít have an ideal draw in stall 9, but with few prominent runners on his inner he should be able to take up a handy position, and with the official going good to firm today, he might be able to bounce back to form and confirm the promise of his reappearance effort. 1pt win WAR LORD (4-1 bet365, Coral, Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/06/2013 Indignant R. Hannon DaviesWT5 SDWN 7.1 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"The 7f handicap at Sandown today (4.05) is full of interesting and progressive horses, but INDIGNANT might be the one that is overpriced. She did well as a 2yo, but shaped as if 7f would suit, and she ran a terrific race in a Newbury handicap on her reappearance over that trip; the horses initially raced in two groups, and she led the smaller group, but found herself adrift of the main group when they merged after a couple of furlongs. She really impressed with the manner in which she surged clear of those that she raced close to, but she couldn't run down Annecdote, who was probably at an advantage racing more towards the centre of the track - it's worth noting that the front three pulled clear and the winner and third were the horses that raced furthest from the stands rail. Indignant tends to race prominently, a tactic which again appeared to be very successful at this track lately, and if in the same form as Newbury she could prove hard to peg back. 1pt win INDIGNANT (12-1 Betvictor *BOG, 11-1 Stan James, Ladbrokes *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/06/2013 Hamis Al Bin J. M. Bradley MorrisL LING 6 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"At Lingfield this evening (6.25) HAMIS AL BIN can run a big race at a huge price in the 6f handicap. His turf form looks ordinary, but I thought he shaped a fair bit better than the bare result at Nottingham on Thursday. On a day when it appeared to be a big advantage to race close to the stands rail, he ended up drifting to the centre of the course but ran quite well in the circumstances, making good progress to dispute the lead approaching the furlong pole and not given anything like a hard time once his chance was gone, giving the impression he was back in better form. He has a good draw here and if Luke Morris can get him to the rail, or close to it, he could spring a surprise. 1pt win HAMIS AL BIN (28-1 Betvictor, Stan James *BOG, 25-1 General - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
Supp 8/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/06/2013 No Jet Lag D. R. Lanigan DurcanTE YORK 6 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"At York, I'm not surprised to see my recent Ripon eyecatcher Body And Soul popular for the big 3yo sprint handicap, but this is a race where a good case can be made for many and at the prices currently available I'd rather take a flyer on big-priced outsider NO JET LAG. He spoiled his chance by pulling too hard on both his final start last season and his reappearance this year (when he also ended up racing on what was definitely the worst of the ground at Newbury) , but the chances of him settling here look much better, dropped to 6f in a big field with a likely fast pace, and also fitted with a hood for the first time. He has looked worth dropping in trip for some time - at Doncaster he quickened past the likes of Ashdan (fourth in the Dewhurst next time) and the very smart Ninjago before seeming not to quite get home, and speed was also the hallmark of his impressive Redcar win last season. He needs to prove that he has trained on, but it's worth remembering he held Group One entries last year and he looks worth chancing on his first try sprinting. 1pt win NO JET LAG (40-1 Betvictor, Stan James *BOG, 33-1 General - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
Body & Soul won at 7/1f ][ NJLag off OR98. Slow Start. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/06/2013 Rufoof C. B. Hills HanaganP SALS 8 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"At Salisbury today (3.25) Magic Of Reality is likely to start a very short priced favourite, and she clearly has the best form in the race by some way, but it might be worth chancing RUFOOF to find the necessary improvement to beat her. Rufoof made her debut in a 7f maiden at the Newbury Spring meeting and shaped with conspicuous promise. She missed the break by around five lengths, and was held up towards the rear travelling strongly; she was then short of room and had to b switched as her rider attempted to make a move 2f out, and despite showing signs of greenness she did really well to make it to the heels of the leaders in a race where the first two home were in the firing line throughout. Her subsequent 58-day absence is a bit of a concern, but if she goes the right way from that debut effort she could give the favourite plenty to think about. It's worth noting that her three half-sisters were all black-type performers. 1pt win RUFOOF (5-1 Betfred *BOG, 9-2 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/06/2013 Royal Acquisition R. H. M. Cowell KellySW KTNA 5 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Itís not altogether surprising to see Pearl Bridge a short-priced favourite for the 5f handicap at Kempton today (3.00), as some of his formlines look very strong (2nd to smart sprinter Bluegrass Blues, and beat two horses who won their next starts by wide margins when winning his maiden at York over 6f). However, although his chance is obvious, thereís a chance he might be vulnerable dropping back to 5f, especially drawn wide; he had to work hard to get the better of a couple of fairly ordinary horses in the battle for second place over this course and distance (when tried in headgear). ROYAL ACQUISITION might be a value alternative; he shaped well on both Polytrack starts last year, travelling strongly on the surface, and he looks fairly handicapped here; he was too keen on his return at Ripon and appeared not to handle the track, twice seeming to become unbalanced under his apprentice rider. Returning to Polytrack from stall one, we might not have seen the best of him yet. Silcaís Dream has one piece of Polytrack form in a good time which would make her very hard to beat, but she seems to have gone the wrong way on turf this summer. 1pt win ROYAL ACQUISITION (7-1 bet365, Paddy Power, Stan James*)"


Notes:-
Supp 5/1 oc ][ 3yo Hcap, RAcq 4TO on OR70 & senior jk. Only 7 runners & 3 of others on OR64-73 & many runs + Welliesinthewater on OR73 on 5TO but poss still too high OR. Pearl Bridge 1 x 2yo run then 2nd & 1st as 3yo for BeckettRM on OR80 & Royal Challis on OR75 for Hannon on 6TO but in form. Early Prices only have PB, RC & RAcq in single figures = 2 x Tws with some scope & only lower weight with scope by number of runs. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/06/2013 Reckless Abandon C. G. Cox KirbyA ASCT 5 G

HT Selection Text:-

"RECKLESS ABANDON can confirm the promise of his reappearance and strike a blow for the three-year-old generation by winning the King's Stand Stakes on day one of Royal Ascot (3.05). Unbeaten in five starts as a 2yo, including twice at Group One level, he made his reappearance in the Temple Stakes at Haydock, traditionally a tough starting point for 3yos, and he also had to carry a 4lb Group One penalty. Nevertheless, he shaped as if he had fully trained on, finishing third overall, but first of the four horses to race on the far side. He was almost certainly at a disadvantage racing on that part of the track; the second and third home on that side of the track both won next time. Moreover, in the 6f handicap run later on the track, Whozthecat was one of two horses to race up the far side; he finished sixth, achieving a Timeform rating of just 75, whereas his rating for his previous run and his two subsequent ones were all at least 93. Reckless Abandon has already won at Royal Ascot (won last year's Norfolk Stakes despite hanging right across to the stands rail). Shea Shea probably has the best form, but it remains to be seen if he can reproduce his best Meydan form over here and he might be drawn away from the pace, and a bigger danger might be Swiss Spirit, who hasn't been with John Gosden long and was badly hampered at the start when finishing just in front of Reckless Abandon in the Temple Stakes (though did race on what was probably the quicker ground). 1pt win RECKLESS ABANDON (11-2 General - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/06/2013 Mysterious Man A. M. Balding FortuneJ ASCT 20 G

HT Selection Text:-

"In the Ascot Stakes (5.00) MYSTERIOUS MAN might be able to bounce back after being a shade disappointing at Chester last time. Progressive last year, he shaped really well on his reappearance at Salisbury when pulling clear along with Sun Central, who went on to finish second off his revised mark in a hot handicap at Haydock next time. Mysterious Man probably wasn't suited by the track at Chester next time, the race probably providing an insufficient stamina test too. He shapes as if he will stay well (plenty of stamina on the damside of the pedigree) and remains fairly handicapped. 1pt each way MYSTERIOUS MAN (16-1 Betfred, Betvictor, Ladbrokes *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/06/2013 Field Of Dream J. A. Osborne KirbyA ASCT 8 G

HT Selection Text:-

"FIELD OF DREAM looks very interesting in the Royal Hunt Cup (4.25) back at a track where he has run well on so many occasions in the past. He's a big price, presumably because he has been well down the field on both starts since returning from Meydan, but he didn't wear blinkers (refitted today) for either of those runs and it seems likely that connections have had their eyes on this target for some time. He was a huge eyecatcher when fourth in this race last year, charging home from an impossible position, and he confirmed his liking for big fields on this track when winning the valuable International Stakes off a 2lb higher mark than today's. He again ran well when fourth in a valuable handicap over 7f off a mark of 103 in September, and the ground was probably softer than ideal when he could finish only in mid-division on his last Ascot start in October. He's quirky and needs things to drop right, but should have his ideal circumstances here and he's very well handicapped. 1pt win FIELD OF DREAM (18-1 Paddy Power, William Hill 16-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
OR98 here. Won NTO 7f NMKJ and put up to OR101, unplaced on later outings but up to OR103 after two 5ths at ASCT in big fields ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/06/2013 Moran Gra J. Morgan SmullenPJ ASCT 8 G

HT Selection Text:-

"I'd also want MORAN GRA on my side in the Hunt Cup. He seems very well suited by these big-field handicaps, shaping especially well in last year's Cambridgeshire (second home amongst those that didn't race in the farside group). He ran as if in need of the run on his reappearance at York, travelling very well for a long way, and he ran well at the Curragh last time having been forced widest of all from his unfavourable draw. He performed creditably on his sole previous start at this track when fourth in Canford Cliffs' Coventry Stakes in 2009, and he might have a good draw next to the stands rail, whilst his trainer, who had been on a long losing run, has been back amongst the winners lately. 1pt win MORAN GRA (33-1 Bet365, Stan James, 25-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/06/2013 Reroute Ed Walker WinstonR ASCT 5 G

HT Selection Text:-

"In the Queen Mary Stakes (5.00) REROUTE and BELDALE MEMORY are the standout fillies on the clock (Rizeena also recorded a good time figure when winning the National Stakes, but that probably owed plenty to her position next to the favoured rail) and I'd suggest backing both. Both recorded very quick times when winning at York, albeit on different types of ground (plenty of give in the ground when Beldale Memory won, but the ground was on the quick side for Reroute's race), so with the overnight weather forecast inconclusive I'd want them both on my side at this stage. Both fillies recorded times that were quicker than class 3 events for older horses run over the same course and distance that day; Beldale Memory never looked in serious danger of being beaten, having also won in good style on her debut, whilst Reroute ran against colts and did really well to cut down the runner-up, who got first run on her having raced more towards the far side. 1pt win REROUTE (10-1 Boylesports, Betfred, Paddy Power, Stan James *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/06/2013 Beldale Memory C. G. Cox SpncerJP ASCT 5 G

HT Selection Text:-

"In the Queen Mary Stakes (5.00) REROUTE and BELDALE MEMORY are the standout fillies on the clock (Rizeena also recorded a good time figure when winning the National Stakes, but that probably owed plenty to her position next to the favoured rail) and I'd suggest backing both. Both recorded very quick times when winning at York, albeit on different types of ground (plenty of give in the ground when Beldale Memory won, but the ground was on the quick side for Reroute's race), so with the overnight weather forecast inconclusive I'd want them both on my side at this stage. Both fillies recorded times that were quicker than class 3 events for older horses run over the same course and distance that day; Beldale Memory never looked in serious danger of being beaten, having also won in good style on her debut, whilst Reroute ran against colts and did really well to cut down the runner-up, who got first run on her having raced more towards the far side. 1pt win BELDALE MEMORY (9-2 Paddy Power, Betfred, Coral *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/06/2013 Ninjago R. Hannon FortuneJ ASCT 7 G

HT Selection Text:-

"In the opening Jersey Stakes (2.30), NINJAGO looks a massive price given the tremendous impression he created on his sole previous start at this track. He was a big disappointment at Newbury last time, but if he's back in the form he showed on his reappearance in a Listed event here over 6f he'd make them all go; he travelled really strongly that day, set plenty to do but showing a terrific burst of speed to put the race to bed. The time was very good - it was the second fastest (from 127 races) recorded over course and distance since the track was relaid seven years ago, and most of the other quick times over course and distance were recorded when the going stick was close to 10 on the straight course, whereas it was only 8.3 that day. The form has worked out well, too, franked by Hasopop and Ninjago's Newbury conquerer Zanetto, and whilst Richard Hughes has understandably opted for impressive recent winner Montiridge (who has a clear chance), the Hannon second string finished in front of Hughes' mount on a couple of occasions on Tuesday and Ninjago might just be one of those specialists often seen at this track. 1pt win NINJAGO (33-1 Paddy Power, 25-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/06/2013 Spillway E. Johnson-Houghton QueallyTP ASCT 12 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"It's difficult to be too dogmatic about Thursday's Royal Ascot card because of doubts about how much the forecast rain will change the going, if at all. However, I do like the chance of SPILLWAY in the King George V Stakes (5.35). He progressed nicely on Polytrack (form of final win on that surface worked out very well), and created an equally good impression on his turf debut on rain-softened ground at Sandown, surging from the rear and maintaining his run all the way to the line. He then went on to run in the London Gold Cup, traditionally one of the hottest 3yo handicaps of the season, but he was patently unsuited by the steady gallop, giving the impression he was only just getting going at the line. Although the winner was only fourth at Epsom next time, I have a feeling that, as usual, the London Gold Cup form will look strong in the not-too-distant future; the 4th home, Kitten On The Run, runs in the Group Three Tercentenary Stakes earlier on the card, whilst the runner-up Hillstar has been declared for the Group Two King Edward VII Stakes on Friday. Moreover, Spillway also held entries in both those contests, but the correct decision has surely been made to run here off a mark of 88, especially as the step up in trip should suit (most of his sire Rail Link's best performers have produced their best form over 1m4f or more). 2pts win SPILLWAY (14-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/06/2013 Llaregyb D. R. C. Elsworth BentleyH ASCT 8 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"The Britannia Handicap (4.25) has a couple of high-profile horses at the front of the market in Wentworth or Cape Peron. It's entirely possible either or both could be Pattern horses, but I'd rather look for a bigger-priced horse each-way in a race like this and LLAREGYB fits the bill. He's a horse whose career I've followed closely, better than the bare result in all three starts in maidens before bolting up on his handicap debut at Newmarket, looking completely different class to his opposition. He followed up off a 10lb higher mark at Musselburgh next time, and the quick time he recorded that day looks even better in the light of the fact that the early pace was steady, Llaregyb taking a while to settle. This is a completely different class of race, of course, but a further 7lb rise looks more than fair and leaves him still getting lumps of weight from some of the market leaders. His recent improvement has come on quick ground, but he travelled well enough on softish ground as a 2yo, just lacking for know-how and possibly fitness in the closing stages, so if the forecast rain does arrive he might be able to cope. 1pt each way LLAREGYB (22-1 Bet365 *BOG, 20-1 Betvictor, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James *BOG - All 1/4 12345 - PP first 6)"


Notes:-
***1pt EW = 2pt Bet. Note also that PPower paying EW 1st 6 so ATR will undoubtedly claim this a winner to place if 5th/6th. ][ 3yo Hcap with tw Law Enforcement on 105 then Ayaar on 100. Llaregyb on OR89. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/06/2013 Loving Spirit J. A. R. Toller SousaSD ASCT 7 G

HT Selection Text:-

"LOVING SPIRIT is starting to look like the quintessential Ascot horse and looks sure to go well in the Buckingham Palace Stakes (5.35) after a luckless run in the Victoria Cup, with his record over this course and distance standing up to the closest scrutiny. On his first start over course and distance he finished strongly from a long way back but just failed to collar Jack Dexter (4th in a Group One on Tuesday but racing off 93 that day). After shaping with bags of promise on his reappearance this season at Kempton, he simply failed to get the breaks last time in the Victoria Cup; held up towards the rear, he was last off the bridle along with the eventual winner Excellent Guest, but found his path repeatedly blocked at a crucial time, finishing with a flourish when the race was all over, also doing enough to suggest that fast ground isn't a problem for him (goes well on soft). He's been dropped a pound for that effort and whilst being drawn near the pace on paper doesn't always work out, he should at least get a good tow into the race with Dream Tune, Maverick and Mont Ras all drawn high. 1pt win HILLSTAR (10-1 Betfred, Betvictor, 9-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/06/2013 Santefisio K. W. Dalgleish FanningJ ASCT 7 G

HT Selection Text:-

"At a monster price, SANTEFISIO will also be an interesting runner in the Buckingham Palace Stakes if he is turned out again. After taking a good hold in the Royal Hunt Cup on Wednesday, his rider appeared to be sitting motionless behind a wall of horses 2f out, but had nowhere to go and was shuffled back. He finished well from an impossible position - he was one of the three fastest finishers along with the well-fancied Educate and Field Of Dream according to TurfTrax data - and all in all gave the impression he had taken really well to this idiosyncratic course. The drop to 7f shouldn't be a problem given his running style, and if he runs he will have a better chance than his current odds suggest. 1pts each way SANTEFISIO (50-1 Paddy Power [ľ 123456] Bet365, Boylesport, Betvictor [ľ 12345] *BOG )"


Notes:-
*** 1pt EW = 2pts Bet & again will claim a return on 5th or 6th ][ HT took to Twitter after race & use '#ffs' (rare for him to use it he said). Santefisio fin clear of his Group on FrSd but 4th overall. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/06/2013 Hillstar M. Stoute MooreR ASCT 12 G

HT Selection Text:-

"In the King Edward VII Stakes (3.05) HILLSTAR can find the necessary improvement. After three quiet years by his own standards, Sir Michael Stoute has returned to something like his old form this season - his strike rate is right up there with that of his best years - and this is just the type of three-year-old with which he has excelled over the years. Hillstar shaped really well on his reappearance when runner-up to a well-handicapped rival in a race where the stable traditionally runs its most progressive 3yo handicapper - Balakheri and Papal Bull both won that race prior to winning today's contest, and Stoute also ran Regal Flush and Doctor Fremantle in that Newmarket handicap. Hillstar could finish only second when hot favourite for the London Gold Cup, but he was almost certainly unsuited by having to make his own running in a messy contest, and there could be plenty more improvement to come after only four career starts. Stoute has two winners and four runners-up from 11 runners in this race in the last 15 years, and Hillstar looks value against the short-priced favourite - horses running here after running in the Derby have tended to be overbet in recent years, with the likes of Black Bear Island (9-2), At First Sight (5-2) and last year Astology (8-11) all beaten in this race for Aidan O'Brien in this race after running at Epsom. Mutashaded is another to consider, though he's very hard to assess as his hugely impressive Sandown win came off a mark of just 79 and his price has contracted sharply already today. 1pt win HILLSTAR (10-1 Betfred, Betvictor, 9-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/06/2013 Hawkeyethenoo J. S. Goldie LeeG ASCT 6 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"HAWKEYETHENOO can make the breakthrough into the very top flight of sprinters by winning the Group One Diamond Jubilee Stakes (3.45). One of the intriguing aspects of the game is the way many sprinters improve as they get older, but Hawkeyethenoo's progress has been all the more remarkable because of how sustained it has become; having recorded his first win off a mark of 51 in 2009, his mark rose 21lb by the end of that season, and went up a further 25lb in 2010. It was obviously tougher thereafter, but he improved a further 7lb on official ratings in 2011 and 9lb more in 2012. His run when second over this course and distance in a Group Two event last October - when he had Society Rock behind at level weights - was another career-best effort, and he was possibly unlucky given he raced up the middle, which may have been the slowest part of the track that day, whereas the winner Maarek (and 50-1 fourth) came from the small group that raced largely against the stands rail. After a fair return against a pace bias at Newmarket this year, he shaped as if better than ever in the Duke Of York Stakes last time; indeed, I thought he might have beaten the winner Society Rock with a clear run, repeatedly hampered just as the race was taking shape whilst the winner enjoyed an unimpeded passage. Of course, Society Rock was making his reappearance and was also conceding 5lb to Hawkeyethenoo, but I think the price differential between the pair is bigger than it should be. 1pt win HAWKEYETHENOO (14-1 Paddy Power, 12-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
6th of 16 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/06/2013 Gabriel's Lad D. J. Coakley FallonK ASCT 6 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"The Wokingham (4.25), as usual, is full of interesting horses, but my two against the field are GABRIAL'S LAD and YORK GLORY. Gabriel's Lad is a progressive sprinter, very lightly raced by the standards of most in this contest, and he ran very well on his reappearance at Newmarket. He was no match for Hamza, especially as the latter was allowed to do his own thing up front, but he shaped well in second, and the worth of that form has been highlighted since, Hamza beating subsequent King's Stand sixth Heeraat next time, and third-placed Poole Harbour (who will be 4lb worse off with him here) going down by the minimum margin next time. Gabriel's Lad remains well handicapped (up only a pound for the Newmarket run) and was a clear-cut winner of his only previous start here, and he seems to handle most types of ground, so has to enter calculations. York Glory just looks like the type of horse that was made for Ascot; there are few sprinters in training that travel more strongly than he does, and his recent unlucky efforts over 5f at York (had to wait for a run, finished strongly) has worked out extremely well. The winner and fifth won two of the most valuable sprint handicaps around next time, and several other horses that raced from high draws that day (like York Glory) ran much better next time. 1pt win GABRIEL'S LAD (10-1 Boylesports, Betfred, 9-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
6/1fav ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/06/2013 York Glory K. A. Ryan SpencerJP ASCT 6 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"The Wokingham (4.25), as usual, is full of interesting horses, but my two against the field are GABRIAL'S LAD and YORK GLORY. Gabriel's Lad is a progressive sprinter, very lightly raced by the standards of most in this contest, and he ran very well on his reappearance at Newmarket. He was no match for Hamza, especially as the latter was allowed to do his own thing up front, but he shaped well in second, and the worth of that form has been highlighted since, Hamza beating subsequent King's Stand sixth Heeraat next time, and third-placed Poole Harbour (who will be 4lb worse off with him here) going down by the minimum margin next time. Gabriel's Lad remains well handicapped (up only a pound for the Newmarket run) and was a clear-cut winner of his only previous start here, and he seems to handle most types of ground, so has to enter calculations. York Glory just looks like the type of horse that was made for Ascot; there are few sprinters in training that travel more strongly than he does, and his recent unlucky efforts over 5f at York (had to wait for a run, finished strongly) has worked out extremely well. The winner and fifth won two of the most valuable sprint handicaps around next time, and several other horses that raced from high draws that day (like York Glory) ran much better next time. 1pt win YORK GLORY (16-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
HT not worried by a 'Side' bias here, unlike with Santefisio, as it favoured his runner. Race run in manner to suit Spencer's style. Pace too Fast and whole field folding back by 1F out and Spencer still at the back. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/06/2013 Stencive W. J. Haggas DettoriL ASCT 12 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"In the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (5.00) STENCIVE might be the interesting one. He was one of the biggest eyecatchers of the 2012 season when runner-up in a hugely valuable handicap last season, repeatedly having to be switched having looked to be going best all the way up the straight. His trainer William Haggas had him entered for the Coronation Cup and the Hardwick Stakes earlier this season, and although the former entry probably owed plenty to his owners' sponsorship of the meeting, Haggas himself had stated the Hardwick was a race he had in mind for the horse prior to his reappearance. He finished only sixth on that return at Newmarket, but he might have needed the run, travelling very strongly for a long way and overall shaping better than the result. The stable's horses have been running very well in general this week (Mukhadram, Fehaydi, Queensberry Rules and Arsaadi have all run terrific races). Stencive probably wouldn't want a lot of rain, but if the ground stays on the lively side he could be hard to beat back over the course and distance where he produced his best effort. 1pts win STENCIVE (10-1 Ladbrokes, 8-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
5/1fav ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
23/06/2013 Ingleby Symphony R. A. Fahey MvHughB PFCT 10 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"It's no surprise to see Kikonga already a warm and well-backed favourite for the 1m2f fillies' handicap at Pontefract today (4.40), as she has more potential than her rivals and connections have stated that they hope she progresses into something better than a handicap. However, I'm prepared to take her on with the more exposed, but similarly in-form INGLEBY SYMPHONY. She was an impressive winner in a good time on her reappearance at Nottingham, and after a fair effort under an inexperienced rider next time, she was much better than the result on her latest start at Beverley, three wide throughout and sticking on well up the home straight. There's a chance she will be outclassed by the favourite but she should run her race again and she remains unexposed at this sort of trip (bred to stay well). 1pt win INGLEBY SYMPHONY (13-2 Paddy Power, Stan James Coral *BOG, 6-1 Boylesports, Betfred, William Hill *BOG)"


Notes:-
6 runner race. IS bw on OR71. Kikonga won 3TO as 2yo and FTO at 3yo & profile as Cumani improving hcapr. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/06/2013 Reggie Bond G. R. Oldroyd KennemoreR THSK 8 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"At Thirsk (8.50) REGGIE BOND can go well despite concerns over his wide draw. He ran really well at Beverley two outings ago, staying on late down the outside from a long way back, and that form has been franked by the subsequent wins of the first two home. He couldnít build on that on Polytack last time, but the drop to a bare 7f probably didnít suit and heís worth another chance back on turf in first-time cheekpieces off the same mark as for his Beverley effort. 1pt win REGGIE BOND (11-1 BetVictor, William Hill, 10-1 general)"


Notes:-
Dec NR at 12



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
25/06/2013 Niknad B Ellison EavesT BVLY 12.1 G

HT Selection Text:-

"NIKNAD was emphatically better than the result at Beverley last time and can make amends over the same course and distance this afternoon (5.00). Drawn widest of all in stall 12 that day, she raced round the outside all the way round, and in the circumstances did extremely well to finish within three lengths of the winner. Her previous effort in cheekpieces at Hamilton (refitted here) reads well, beaten only a length by Alcaeus, who has won twice since, including off a 12lb higher mark last time. She has a much more favourable draw this time in stall 2, and she can confirm the Hamilton form with Wadacre Sarko, who was a length behind her that day but has stall 12 to overcome here. Itís interesting that Joe Fanning, who rides this track so well, is on board handicap debutant Tallaay, and it will be interesting to see how he fares in the market leading up to the off, but he has shown nothing at all in three starts to date. 1pt win NIKNAD (5-1 bet365, 9-2 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
Drift 9/2 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
25/06/2013 Saint Thomas J. Mackie FanningJ BVLY 9.9 G

HT Selection Text:-

"SAINT THOMAS looks likely to give his running again in the 1m2f handicap (4.00) and he looks overpriced each-way this morning. Heís been edging up the handicap, itís true, but thatís partly because he keeps running so well here; his course and distance form figures read 1514431213 and heís likely to prove hard to keep out of the frame again here, well drawn in stall 2. He would probably have won outright had there been a stronger gallop when dead-heating here off a 5lb lower mark in May, and he again shaped well here last time off todayís mark, chasing a strong pace and one of three that pulled clear, the other two ridden a shade more conservatively; the winner, Christmas Light, won a 19-runner handicap at York next time off a 5lb higher mark and the runner-up, Apache Glory, was in top form at the time, so the form looks very solid, and as mentioned above, his rider Joe Fanning does really well on the round course here (strike rate of around 20% in handicaps and a small level stake profit). Iíd suggest backing Saint Thomas each way as the in-foal Reset City is clearly well handicapped (5lb lower than when shaping as if still at the top of her game last time), the only doubt being the fact that this will be her sixth race in the space of five weeks. 1pt each-way SAINT THOMAS (8-1 BetVictor, Coral, Stan James*)"


Notes:-
****NOTE 1pt EW = 2pts Bet ][ Supp 5/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
26/06/2013 Snowy Dawn HollinsheadA QuinnJ SALS 12 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"The Bibury Cup at Salisbury (4.25) doesnít look as competitive as is sometimes the case, and SNOWY DAWN looks an interesting contender off bottom weight. He is still a maiden, but looks to have improved since he has been stepped up in trip following a break, and his latest effort at Chester, when he and Ralston Road pulled a long way clear of the favourite, came in a decent time for the grade. The winner ran quite well in the Queenís Vase next time, and Snowy Dawn is only 2lb higher here. 1pt win SNOWY DAWN (9-2 bet365, Betfred, Boylesports*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
26/06/2013 Poetic Lord S. Kirk DoyleJ KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Kempton tonight (9.20) it will be no surprise if Graphic returns to form back on Polytrack (where he shaped so well as a 2yo), but POETIC LORD might be the overpriced horse in the race and makes some each-way appeal. He seems better on Polytrack than turf these days, his three efforts for his current yard certainly much better than his two turf ones, and he has produced decent efforts on the clock on each of those three all-weather runs this year. On his latest start on this surface, he couldnít peg back Emmuska, but that filly now has form figures of 2111 on Polytrack, and Poetic Lordís previous all-weather start had seen him pull clear with Rezwaan, another specialist on the surface who was bidding for a hat-trick. 1pt each-way POETIC LORD (25-1 Betfred, BetVictor, Totesport, 888sport)"


Notes:-
***NOTE 1pt EW = 2pts Bet ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
27/06/2013 Lomond Lassie K. W. Dalgleish GibbonsG NEWC 6 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 6f 2yo maiden (2.30) I think the market might have missed a trick with the once-raced LOMOND LASSIE. She showed good early speed from her wide draw on her debut at Musselburgh despite signs of greenness, trying to match strides with two more experienced rivals who raced closer to the stands rail than she did. She understandably faded in the final 2f, but she will be sharper this time, and should certainly be suited by this step up in trip (lots of stamina on damside of pedigree). The form of the Musselburgh race suddenly looks a lot better after Oasis Town and Simply Black, who like Lomond Lassie made their challenge wide at Musselburgh and ended up well beaten, finished first and second in a Carlisle maiden yesterday, pulling a long way clear of the remainder, and it might be that the merit of Lomond Lassieís debut effort has slipped under the radar here; sheís potentially well drawn if the field edges across to the stands side (stalls in centre of the track). 1pt win LOMOND LASSIE (10-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
27/06/2013 Korngold O. Pears ButterfieldJ7 NEWC 10 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"KORNGOLD might be worth chancing in the first division of the 1m2f handicap at Newcastle today (4.00). After looking progressive for John Dunlop in 2011, he lost his way last season, not always looking straightforward either. However, he has been gelded and his reappearance effort at Beverley, on what was just his second start for Ollie Pears, was not without promise, held up racing keenly, but wider than ideal, still on the bridle turning for home, then short of room and no chance from his position thereafter, just nudged home in the final 2f. This race looks short of in-form horses - none of the fifteen runners finished in the first three last time - and from a good draw with an apprentice who continues to look excellent value for his claim, Korngold might be able to take advantage of a favourable mark. 1pt win KORNGOLD (14-1 Coral, Paddy Power, 12-1 general)"


Notes:-
Supp 7/1 oc][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
28/06/2013 Talent Spotter S. B. Suroor BarzalonaM DONC 6 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"I havenít had as much time as Iíd normally like to study todayís cards but for those looking for a bet Iíd suggest a small interest in TALENT SPOTTER in the 2yo maiden at Doncaster (2.30). She was well backed on her debut at Lingfield, but ran green and ended up racing wide and away from the favoured stands rail, nevertheless staying on steadily and shaping well. The form looks solid enough, with the winner Survived running creditably at Royal Ascot and the third beaten just a neck next time, although Talent Spotter will need to go the right way from her debut, which definitely didnít happen with her stable mate Inspiriter, who also ran with promise in that Lingfield race but could hardly have done more wrong next time. There are several potentially interesting newcomers in opposition and if the rain continues testing ground would be an unknown quantity but Talent Spotter should be thereabouts if progressing as expected from her debut. 1pt win TALENT SPOTTER (5-1 BetVictor, Boylesports, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
**NOTE HT's point about limited time for him to do his Selections ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
28/06/2013 Magical Macey T. D. Barron MakinP NEWC 5 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"In the Gosforth Park Cup (7.45) MAGICAL MACEY would probably be high enough in the weights if the ground had remained lively, but the rain that has been falling Newcastle this morning is very much in his favour and heíll look overpriced if the ground is on the soft side by this evening (already changed to good at 7.18 this morning). He has shaped as if in reasonable form in two starts at York this year, but he is a much better horse when encountering give in the ground, and he hasnít really had his conditions since beating Borderlescott at Thirsk a year ago, having earlier won at Beverley on very testing going; the more rain that falls, the better for his prospects here. 1pt win MAGICAL MACEY (14-1 bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Stan James)"


Notes:-
**NOTE HT's point about limited time for him to do his Selcections ][ Note this is a win & HT should prob just shut up about time, either it's a selection or it isn't. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
29/06/2013 Switcher D. O'Meara TudhopeD NEWC 6 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"SWITCHER might be able to show improvement at the third time of asking for David O'Meara and is taken to cause an upset in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle today (2.05). She wasn't at her best in her first two starts for her current yard, but there are a couple of possible reasons - the stable's fillies were very slow to come to hand this Spring (between early January and mid-May the stable had 33 winners and every one was a male horse, whereas since mid-May the fillies have had a strike rate of 18%). Also, the headgear in which she showed improvement last year was absent for her first two starts, whereas it is refitted today. It will take a career-best to beat the likes of Jack Dexter here, but it should be no surprise if she produces a much better effort on ground she relishes with the visor refitted, especially if able to get to the front on what could be tacky ground. 1pt win SWITCHER (28-1 Bet365, 25-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
***Note 28/1 two NRs before race & 14/1 at 13



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
29/06/2013 Picabo H. Candy KeniryLP WDSR 6 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"In the big sprint handicap at Windsor (4.40) PICABO should go well at decent odds. She progressed really well last year after joining Henry Candy, who does so well with sprinters, and she has shaped as if coming to hand on her last two starts, finishing well at Goodwood, and then running really well against what appeared a draw bias last time, finishing comfortably in front of those who raced on the outer wing, though only third overall. The quick ground will be ideal, she won over course and distance as a 2yo, and there might be more improvement to come from her still, in just her second season with Candy. 1pt win PICABO (10-1 Betvictor, 9-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
30/06/2013 Go Nani Go E. B. De Giles KeniryLP SALS 5 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"GO NANI GO has shaped well on all four starts since returning from an eighteen-month absence, and he looks interesting in the Seniors' sprint handicap at Salisbury (3.30), a race where, by definition, progressive types are likely to be thin on the ground. Having shaped as if badly in need of the run on his reappearance at Lingfield, he was unlucky not to win next time, before scoring in emphatic style at Chepstow under a hands-and-heels ride. His latest effort came in a £10,000 handicap at Musselburgh, but he was drawn one from the outside and ended up challenging widest of all, rarely a favourable position over that course and distance. In the circumstances he ran very well to finish fifth, but that run now looks even better (race was run in an almost identical time to the class 2 handicap won by Go Nani Go's stable mate Kingsgate Choice on the same card); the 2nd, 3rd and 9th all ran in a 0-95 handicap at Ayr a week later and not only filled the first three places, but pulled clear in doing so. Sixth-placed Jinky provided a further boost for the form when runner-up at 20-1 next time. Go Nani Go can take a keen hold, but this race looks full of front-runners and should be run to suit, and he looks another progressive older sprinter for a stable that has done so well with the aforementioned Kingsgate Choice this season. 1pt win GO NANI GO (15-2 Betvictor, 7-1 Stan Jame, Coral, 13-2 Paddy Power, Ladbrokes *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/07/2013 Icy Blue R. M. Whitaker GarbuttN7 PFCT 8 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 1m handicap at Pontefract today (5.30), I'm loathe to oppose Talent Scout, as he did remarkably well to win at Beverley last time having raced three wide throughout, and he is unbeaten in six starts in cheekpieces on good ground or better. However, this looks likely to be run at a decent pace, and ICY BLUE might be value to reverse the recent Carlisle form with Talent Scout. The winner enjoyed an uncontested lead that day, which may not be the case today, and Icy Blue, who had to wait for a run, finished so strongly that he would have been in front in two or three more strides, proving he can handle quick ground in the process. That was Icy Blue's first run in cheekpieces and they certainly seemed to help him; he lost his way last year, but his stable's handicappers have been going very well this season and Icy Blue is very well handicapped on that 2011 form. 1pt win ICY BLUE (11-1 Bet Victor*, 10-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/07/2013 Paddy's Saltantes J. S. Moore JonesL WTON 12.2 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Wolverhampton PADDYíS SALTANTES is obviously a risky proposition to a degree after reportedly bleeding last time, but he still looks overpriced on his Polytrack form in the 1m4f handicap (4.45). He shaped like a stayer on this surface last winter, including when improving on his first start beyond a mile to land a 1m2f handicap in a fair time at Lingfield, having won going away over a mile on his previous start. Obviously he will need to bounce back from that dismal reappearance effort, but his last two Polytrack runs both worked out well, he shapes as if this trip will suit and heís only 3lb higher than he was at Lingfield. 1pt win PADDYíS SALTANTES (22-1 Stan James, 20-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
02/07/2013 Monel J. S. Goldie LeeG HTON 6 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"MONEL was a big eyecatcher at Newcastle last week when running from 8lb out of the handicap, and on a day where betting opportunities look very limited, he does look interesting off his old mark in the 6f handicap at Hamilton (5.30). He finished really strongly that day on rain-softened ground having been held up and then switched for a run, all in all shaping very well, and heís able to run off an 8lb lower mark here; he will be 6lb higher from Saturday, but even that would represent what was effectively a 2lb drop after an eyecatching run. Itís a bit of a concern that he has the hood refitted, as he wore this on his seasonal reappearance but not last time; however, he probably needed the run (and was on the wrong part of the track) on his reappearance, and he did get quite lit up during the early stages last time and the hood might help in that respect. 1pt win MONEL (5-1 Betfred, BetVictor, Ladbrokes*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/07/2013 Pastoral Witness C. E. Brittain FortuneJ KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"PASTORAL WITNESS (Kempton 7.50) is the only horse from the 2yo maiden run at Newburyís April meeting not to have run since. That race was one of the hottest maidens of the season so far Ė eight of the 12 horses to have run since won one of their next two starts, and every one of those 12 has run to a Timeform rating of at least 75. The effort of Pastoral Witness was by no means the least promising in the field; she raced towards the stands rail, which was grossly unfavoured that day, and shaped at least as well as two or three of the subsequent winners on that part of the track, despite eventually being beaten a long distance. Obviously her subsequent absence is a concern, whilst she steps up in trip on her Polytrack debut, but she showed enough to suggest sheís well up to winning a maiden; the well-bred Jacqueline Jouliac looks the most interesting of the newcomers. 1pt win PASTORAL WITNESS (12-1 Ladbrokes, William Hill)"


Notes:-
Drift 3/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/07/2013 Ruscello Ed Walker BakerG KTNA 12 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"RUSCELLO has won on turf, but he really comes into his own on Polytrack and he has to be of interest back on his favoured surface at Kempton this evening (8.50), having probably found softish ground against him at York last time. Heís a keen-racing, strong-travelling horse, just the type that is often seen to best effect on Polytrack, and he has won three of his five starts on the surface, usually recording a good time figure in the process. He was beaten on the latest of those five starts, but still shaped very well in a race not run to suit; drawn high, he was six wide round the first bend, and understandably over-racing as a result; allowed to track the leader, he loomed up travelling as well as any 3f out and became engaged in a protracted battle with Icebuster before the pair were mugged late on by Niceofyoutotellme finishing fast and wide. The winner, second, fifth and seventh all won next time, and the fourth had won his two previous starts at Kempton, so that form looks very solid, and Ruscello is only 2lb higher here. 1pt win RUSCELLO (15-2 BetVictor, Paddy Power*, 7-1 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
04/07/2013 Kelpie Blitz DurackS FentonM EPSM 10.1 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"On a day where I canít find much that interests me at a value price, the tentative suggestion is KELPIE BLITZ in the 1m2f handicap at Epsom (8.55). Iím not completely confident about his prospects because heís a keen racer who is probably best suited by a decent gallop, but providing he settles and can get some cover early, he should go well; he shaped very well at Sandown last time, not match for the progressive Cashpoint but still impressing with the way he went past horses in the closing stages having been held up in last place. Those tactics tend to be at least as difficult to execute here as at Sandown, but heís still fairly handicapped off a 2lb higher mark and providing he gets the run of the race he should go well. 1pt win KELPIE BLITZ (7-1 William Hill, 13-2 BetVictor, 6-1 bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes*)"


Notes:-
*** HT says not really found a seclection and this Tip reads like a weak argument.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/07/2013 Veya Ed Walker BuickW SDWN 7.1 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"The 7f maiden at Sandown today (3.25) is not short of interesting runners, with Diapenko understandably a warm favourite after shaping with plenty of promise. However, at bigger odds I think VEYA is interesting. He shaped with plenty of promise in a very warm maiden at Leicester on his debut, finding his path blocked when he was trying to make his challenge, not knocked about thereafter, albeit beaten quite a long way on the soft ground. Heís well bred,a Giantís Causeway half-brother to Irish 2000 Guineas winner Bachelor Duke. The step up in trip is likely to suit, and whilst the record of William Buick for the stable understandably hasnít been able to live up to its early record (Buick won on six of his first seven rides for the yard, his record now reading 7-18), it still looks a positive booking. 1pt each-way VEYA (18-1 Willaim Hill, 16-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/07/2013 Kyleakin Lass FitzsimonsP MurphyMJM5 SDWN 5 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"The 5f handicap at Sandown (2.20) has been priced up as if a major draw bias is on the cards, with the front six in the betting all drawn seven or lower. That may turn out to be the case, as the far rail is often the place to be on the 5f course at Sandown, but the rails have been moved in for the first time this season, and itís not impossible that the usual bias wonít be anywhere near as big. With that in mind, Iíd rather take a couple of shots at higher-drawn horses with possibly a better chance than the market suggests, and the two I like are EDGE CLOSER and KYLEAKIN LASS. They were first and third respectively over course and distance last September (Kyleakin Lass not enjoying the clearest of runs), and whilst the draw clearly was a major factor that day, the first three home coming from the three lowest stalls, the rail hadnít been brought in that day. If the movement of the rail neutralises the effect of the draw, both could run well at big prices; Edge Closer shaped as if badly needing the run over 6f on his reappearance and won this emphatically last year, whilst Kyleakin Lass has been running well this season (including when facing a stiff task last time) and has the services of a good 5lb claimer. 1pt win KYLEAKIN LASS (33-1 William Hill, 28-1 bet365, Coral, Skybet)"


Notes:-
14th of 14th after racing wide in rear. Draws of 1st 6 home were 1-2-10-6-3-12 in bunch finish, 6th btn just under 2L. 1st two reported to run up rail behind ldg pair. But SLife CIR only identify one of Horses as being in leading pair. All others prominent were chased ldg pr .... ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/07/2013 Edge Closer A. W. Carroll DoyleJ SDWN 5 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"The 5f handicap at Sandown (2.20) has been priced up as if a major draw bias is on the cards, with the front six in the betting all drawn seven or lower. That may turn out to be the case, as the far rail is often the place to be on the 5f course at Sandown, but the rails have been moved in for the first time this season, and itís not impossible that the usual bias wonít be anywhere near as big. With that in mind, Iíd rather take a couple of shots at higher-drawn horses with possibly a better chance than the market suggests, and the two I like are EDGE CLOSER and KYLEAKIN LASS. They were first and third respectively over course and distance last September (Kyleakin Lass not enjoying the clearest of runs), and whilst the draw clearly was a major factor that day, the first three home coming from the three lowest stalls, the rail hadnít been brought in that day. If the movement of the rail neutralises the effect of the draw, both could run well at big prices; Edge Closer shaped as if badly needing the run over 6f on his reappearance and won this emphatically last year, whilst Kyleakin Lass has been running well this season (including when facing a stiff task last time) and has the services of a good 5lb claimer. 1pt win EDGE CLOSER (25-1 Stan James, William Hill, 20-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/07/2013 Light Up My Life R. Hannon HughesR SDWN 8.1 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"One of the remarkable things about LIGHT UP MY LIFE is that she has run seven times, including four times at Pattern level plus once at Royal Ascot, yet today's race at Sandown in the Coral Distaff (3.15) will be the first time she has been ridden by Richard Hannon's stable jockey Richard Hughes. That in itself has to be a positive factor, but there are other reasons to believe she is overpriced this morning, too. Her price clearly owes plenty to the fact that three of her rivals here finished in front of her last time, but she was on the wrong part of the track that day; in a race where the field ended up splitting into her three groups, she was held up in the smallest group of five horses that raced close to the stands rail. That group simply didn't take her into the race; she trounced the second home in her group by six lengths and the remainder by 17 lengths or more, but the race unfolded centre to far side. She shaped as if still in top form, but hung right under pressure, not the first time she has done this, and this right-handed track might prove very suitable, especially if she can get to the far rail; she had led or disputed the lead on her four previous starts, and in a race where there aren't many habitual prominent racers, Hughes might be able to get her to or near the front despite her wide draw. 1pt win LIGHT UP MY LIFE (14-1 Ladbrokes *BOG, 12-1 Boylesports, Betfred, Paddy Power *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/07/2013 Zaitsev O. Pears WinstonR BVLY 8.5 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"At Beverley (4.15) ZAITSEV looks well worth backing to confirm the promise of his Ripon win two outings ago. He was really impressive that day, making all and winning in a good time, and the second, third and eighth all won next time. He probably went off too fast at Haydock next time, but still went with plenty of zest, and a combination of the severe test at the trip and the ground probably took its toll. He's well placed for an attacking ride in stall two, and the drop in trip should suit; Old Man Clegg is another regular front runner but he seems at his best on much softer ground. 2pts win ZAITSEV (5-1 Bet365, 9-2 general - use *BOG firm)"


Notes:-
***NOTE 2pts Win ][ Supp 7/2 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/07/2013 Here Now And Why JardineI BrothertonS AYR 5 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"HERE NOW AND WHY has shaped as if in good form on his recent starts and should go well with good assistance from the saddle likely in the amateur riders' handicap at Ayr today (5.00). Twice runner-up this season off similar marks, he shaped well when staying on steadily from the worst draw at Musselburgh two outings ago, having spent most of the race quite wide (switched in closing stages), and he shaped as if still in form over 6f at Newcastle last time, not disgraced in a better race than this. Dropped 2lb since and with Serena Brotherton always an asset in amateur riders' races (52-315, +91 pts profit since 2000), he should go well. Ryedane, who won the equivalent race last year, is another to consider with his rider having won on two of the three occasions he has ridden him. 1pt win HERE NOW AND WHY (11-2 Bet365, Stan James *BOG, 5-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
Drift 7/2 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/07/2013 Bapak Pesta K. A. Ryan MakinP RIPN 6 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"At Ripon today (6.50) BAPAK PESTA might be able to spring a surprise returning to a straight track for the first time since making a promising racecourse debut at Thirsk. He disappointed in two subsequent starts as a 2yo at Pontefract and was again well beaten on his reappearance/handicap debut over the extended 7f at Beverley, but he did everything wrong that day, racing keenly three wide during the early stages and then failing to handle the bend, making a little headway in the straight from a long way behind but ultimately well held. The stable was out of form at the time and is in much better heart now, and Bapak Pesta has been gelded since his last run, so although heís hardly a solid selection, he is still lightly raced and might have some improvement in him. 1pt win BAPAK PESTA (16-1 bet365, Boylesports, 14-1 general)"


Notes:-
3yo Hcap tw OR64 down to OR45. BPesta OR63 & 5TO after 3 unp runs at 2yo & 1st run 3yo, never been closer than 5th place. But weak race and prob only 3 prev wnrs in field of 13. 2 of winners with App Jks as if trnr thinks high e OR. Favourite a 5TO horse for EasterbyMW ridden by Fallon. Unp 2 x 2yo runs & FTo 3yo, then 3rd in 1st hcap off OR56 at 16/1. So nothing that solid opposing BP. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/07/2013 Phils Wish McConnellJC SpencerJ WTON 7.1 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Iíve been waiting for PHILS WISH to run again in Britain ever since his eyecatching effort at Wolverhampton in January, and he returns to the same course and distance today (5.15). He showed significant improvement when switched to Polytrack, a feature of both his runs being that the winner managed to get first run on him on each occasion, shaping especially well when runner-up to Harvest Mist in January. His next effort when again runner-up, this time at Dundalk in a 0-65 handicap, looks all the better now in the light of the exploits of winner Slipper Orchid, last seen finishing third off a mark of 90 in a valuable handicap, and Phils Wishís subsequent flop might be best forgiven (ridden by a 7lb claimer and appears to have soundness issues given the gaps between some of his runs and the fact that he has missed at least one intended engagement due to lameness). He can take a keen hold, but there looks to be plenty of pace in the race and Spencer might be able to drop in from his wide draw and come with a late challenge. 1pt win PHILS WISH (6-1 William Hill, 5-1 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
Runs off OR57 with tw 60. Brk67 so HT should have addressed issue of his rtgs FT off Brk. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/07/2013 Floralys A. Weaver BeasleyC7 SWEL 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"The 1m maiden handicap at Southwell (7.35) is an interesting race, because if features several US-bred newcomers to the surface. FLORALYS is one thatís of definite interest switched to Fibresand on pedigree. Her sire Flower Alley, who won the Travers Stakes, is unsurprisingly a big influence for dirt in the US, and although her dam Search Mission raced exclusively in this country, Search Missionís half-sister Skimming went from being unplaced in a class 3 conditions race at Wolverhampton to beating to beating the mighty Tiznow on dirt in a Grade 1 event once switched to the US. Floralys herself hasnít always looked straightforward (hence the triple use of headgear today) but shapes as if there is ability to be unlocked on the right surface, finishing strongly from off the pace at Lingfield two outings ago, then travelling strongly but not picking up at Yarmouth last time, and she has the assistance of one of the hottest 7lb claimers around here. 1pt win FLORALYS (12-1 general)"


Notes:-
33/1 wnr by US sire Include, 5/1 2nd by Distorted Humor. Wnr unp in 6 prev runs, 2 x 2yo. Off OR53 having started OR55. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/07/2013 Rat Catcher T. D. Easterby FarleyN CATT 6 GFF

HT Selection Text:-

"RAT CATCHER shaped a lot better than the bare result at Thirsk last time and can go well in the 6f handicap that closes Catterickís card (5.20). He was ridden prominently that day in a race run at a strong pace, and after mastering the early leader he kicked a couple of lengths clear, and was still leading inside the final furlong, before his earlier exertions took their toll. He fared best of the prominent runners apart from Ingenti, who was ridden a shade more conservatively (chased leaders), and Ingenti ran well when runner-up in a big field at Beverley next time. Rat Catcher ran quite well when fifth over 5f here, unable to go the pace before finishing well, and should find 6f round here more to his liking, whilst the return to a 3yo-only contest should help. 1pt win RAT CATCHER (14-1 Ladbrokes, 11-1 Betfred, Paddy Power, Totesport)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/07/2013 Kodafine P. D. Evans HughesR LNGA 5 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the nursery at Lingfield (4.00) KODAFINE can bounce back to form returned to Polytrack. Having shaped with real promise when third at Kempton on her debut, staying on well off a steady pace, she was an emphatic winner next time at Wolverhampton; she didnít beat much, but the time was fair for an April 2yo event, and she covered the final 2f faster than any of the older horses had in the 0-75 handicap run earlier on the card. She was out of her depth in class 2 and class 1 events on her next two starts, and possibly unsuited by rain-softened ground at Chepstow last time; itís possible that she was just an early-season 2yo and weíve already seen the best of her, but given the distinct promise of her two Polytrack starts here sheís worth chancing with Richard Hughes booked. 1pt win KODAFINE (8-1 bet365, Coral, Paddy Power*)"


Notes:-
6 runners race as 2 x NR ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/07/2013 Universal M. Johnston FanningJ NMKJ 12 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"UNIVERSAL is an extremely game and genuine horse, and in a race where he might be able to dominate from the front he might be the one to beat in the Princess Of Walesís Stakes (2.40) on day one of the July meeting. He has been most progressive this season and has showcased his ability to find plenty under pressure on more than one occasion; twice this season Noble Mission, who would have more talent but nowhere near so doughty in a finish Universal, has gone past him before Universal has battled back past him, on the first occasion to win the John Porter at Newbury and then last time to claim third spot in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. That run was all the more meritorious because Universal had chased the strong pace set by Ektihaam, and then swerved wide when that horse slipped up after half a mile. Iíd anticipate this race being run in similar style to the Jockey Club Stakes on the Rowley course in May, when Universal was able to dominate (again appeared to be passed by the eventual runner-up before battling back), and his rider might also have the advantage of racing against the stands rail (racing this week takes place on the stands side half of the July course, the first time the meeting has been on this half of the track since 2001). If Universal is still upside his rivals with a furlong to go, he might take plenty of passing. 1pt win UNIVERSAL (4-1 Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/07/2013 Lulu The Zulu M. Appleby MullenA DONC 6 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"At Doncaster (3.05) it might be worth giving LULU THE ZULU the chance to confirm the promise of her recent run over course and distance. She went down narrowly to the 70-rated 3yo Cape Of Hope that day, and at face value that leaves her up against it here, but both the style of that run (front two pulled a long way clear of the remainder) and the time (over three seconds quicker than the course and distance 3yo handicap run on the same card, and over two seconds faster than the 2yo race run half an hour later, though it did rain during the card) suggest that the front two might have performed to a fair standard. This could be a tough race, with Godolphinís Port Alfred and Sheikh Hamdanís Muthmir already bringing a fair level of form into the race, but Lulu The Zulu looks at least their equal on the clock and is a bigger price. 1pt win LULU THE ZULU (11-2 bet365*, 5-1 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
3yo Maiden race. LTZ on 3TO. Back to his favourite trnr from AW season. ][ VT of her previous run looked q gd pulling away from others. Then realise it was a maiden & getting 5lbs from other horse who won and had an OR70 rtg. In race not tv cmf against these hrs & did ok to rally to a vol 3rd but about dist back expected with other pair def OR70+. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/07/2013 Indignant R. Hannon HughesR NMKJ 7 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"In the opening filliesí handicap (1.40) INDIGNANT remains interesting despite going up in the weights after being beaten on each of her last three starts. She shaped extremely well on her reappearance at Newbury, trouncing those that raced on the same flank as her and just unable to cope with the well-handicapped Annecdote, who won at Royal Ascot off an 8lb higher mark next time. She shaped as if still at the top of her game last time at Sandown, but gave the impression the rain-softened ground (going was changed after the first race) might have made the difference between victory and defeat; racing prominently, she was travelling really well 3f out but had to make her effort quite early as the leader kicked clear, readily getting to the front but just reeled in by horses ridden more conservatively at the line. With Richard Hughes back in the saddle and back against the fillies, she might be able to gain a deserved win. 1pt win INDIGNANT (6-1 Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Stan James*)"


Notes:-
Supp 11/2 oc ][ Made All ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/07/2013 Art Scholar M. Appleby MullenA YORK 12 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"At York (3.30) ART SCHOLAR is back in calmer waters after his recent run at Royal Ascot and can confirm the hint in that run that heís returning to form. He was most progressive last season, winning the November Handicap off a mark of 93, and shaped as if a higher mark might not be beyond him on a couple of occasions at Meydan earlier this year. He caught the eye in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes last time, twice badly hampered when starting to stay on from the rear, probably not going to threaten the principals but value for a few lengths better than the eventual result. There are concerns about whether the pace will be quick enough for him (not many frontrunners in the race) and whether the ground will be too lively, but this track (relaid in recent years like his favoured Doncaster) might suit and his price looks big enough to compensate for the concerns. 1pt win ART SCHOLAR (12-1 Coral, 11-1 Stan James)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/07/2013 Signor Sassi W. J. Knight KellySW ASCT 6 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"Iíve been waiting for SIGNOR SASSI to run again at Ascot ever since he was a big eyecatcher over 6f there last October so he has to be of interest over the same course and distance today (4.15). That run, his final one for Roger Varian, came in a hot 0-105 3yo handicap, and Signor Sassi was one of four horses that raced on the stands side. He readily beat those who raced in his group, but found himself a few lengths adrift of the centre group once switched and overall shaped very well in finishing fourth. That was on softish ground, but he has form on quick ground too, and this strong traveller might be the type to make up into an Ascot specialist; he possibly needed the run on his debut for his current yard at Newbury (raced keenly during early stages and now fitted with a hood). 1pt win SIGNOR SASSI (6-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/07/2013 Bertiewhittle T. D. Barron HughesR NMKJ 7 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"BERTIEWHITTLE hasn't won for nearly two years, but he has produced a series of good efforts in top handicaps and looks likely to produce another good effort in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket (3.15). He has produced the best form of his career on two of his last three starts and his latest effort at Newcastle was probably a career-best; he was unlucky to run into a horse that has improved massively this season in Diescentric, but he had the remainder well strung out in an excellent time. For the purposes of today's contest, it might prove a blessing in disguise that Diescentric ran in the Newcastle race; Bertiewhittle might have faced a rise of 5lb or 6lb if Diescentric hadn't run and the result had otherwise stayed the same, but as it is he's been left on the same mark of 97 by the handicapper. He shaped very well on his two previous starts this season at Ascot (had nothing to take him into the race up the far rail in the Buckingham Palace Stakes two outings ago), and won his sole previous start on the July course over 6f going away despite not getting the clearest of runs. He should get a good tow into the race towards the far side from Es Que Love and I'm So Glad, and whilst he'll need luck in running, he should go well again. 1pt win BERTIEWHITTLE (10-1 Boylesports, Betfred, Betvictor, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, William Hill *BOG )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/07/2013 Smarty Socks D. O'Meara TudhopeD YORK 8 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 1m handicap at York (1.45) I can't let SMARTY SOCKS go unbacked at a track where he goes so well, despite the fact that there are a few negatives to his chance. He's well into the veteran stage now, has a wide draw and much of his best form has come at 7f, but he really does thrive at this track when he gets his ground; his form figures here when the going according to Timeform has been good or faster read 131011, with the sole blip coming when patently not staying the extended 1m2f trip in the John Smith's Cup two years ago, when he was last off the bridle. He should get the strong pace that suits here and he's only 5lb higher than when winning at the May meeting, and his wide draw shouldn't be a concern as he will be dropped in anyway."


Notes:-
Ld ins-1f, HddLn ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/07/2013 Call At Midnight HumphreySJ QuinlanJ3 SWLT 24 G

HT Selection Text:-

"Most regular readers will know that summer jumping is not an area of the sport I concentrate on, but for those looking for a bet the very tentative suggestion is CALL AT MIDNIGHT in the second division of the 3m handicap hurdle at Southwell (4.40). She's far from a solid proposition as her form has been very patchy and her stable hasn't had a winner for a long time, but she's been given a definite chance by the handicapper, now eligible for a 0-95 having raced in better grade for almost all her career. She stopped quite quickly on her return at Fontwell last month over fences when running off a mark of 110, but the ground would probably have been too soft for her and she might have needed the run too, and she was one of the last off the bridle, weakening quickly after hitting four out. It remains to be seen if she can build on that, but she's very well handicapped if she can. 1pt win CALL AT MIDNIGHT (10-1 Betvictor *BOG, 9-1 William Hill *BOG, 8-1 general - use *BOG firms )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/07/2013 Lionheart L. M. Cumani MilczarekK WTON 7.1 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"LIONHEART got back on track with an emphatic win at Brighton last time, and whilst form from that course doesn't always translate elsewhere, he showed enough on his sole previous Polytrack start to suggest he's of interest now on his return to the all-weather at Wolverhampton today (7.50). He took well to this surface at Lingfield on his seasonal reappearance back in April, held up in a race that wasn't run at an especially strong gallop and doing really well to close to within a length of the more prominently-ridden Intrigo, pulling clear of the remainder. The winner was running off a mark of 68 there but is rated 94 now, and there might be more to come from Lionheart back on this surface. 1pt win LIONHEART (9-2 bet365*, 4-1 Bet Victor*, Ladbrokes, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Supp 7/2 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/07/2013 Star City M Dods MulrennanP WTON 8.6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"It's rare for all-weather winners to return to their favoured surface on a lower mark than when they won after a few runs on turf, but that's the case with STAR CITY at Wolverhampton this evening (9.20) and the return to Polytrack might see him bounce back to form. He won over this course and distance in October off a mark of 60, but after four subsequent turf runs he can run off 58 here; he had also shaped quite well when a close fourth in a competitive 0-75 handicap at this track last year, and I thought he showed signs of a return to form at Catterick last time, trying to chase a well-handicapped rival who was back to form with headgear refitted, and not knocked about once beaten. The concern here is that he has a prominent racing style in a field with several other such types (notably Glenridding), but providing he doesn't get sucked into a speed duel he should go well. 1pt win STAR CITY (8-1 bet365*, 15-2 Bet Victor*, 7-1 general)"


Notes:-
HT tweeted an apology soon after this selection went live on ATR website saying the price had shortened notably just before it went live. i.e. The price recommended not avilable. ][ Supp 4/1 to 3/1f oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/07/2013 Glastonberry G. Deacon TurnerH KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"GLASTONBERRY shaped as if sheíd be winning again soon over what was surely an inadequate trip when returned to Polytrack last time and she makes plenty of appeal back over 7f this evening (9.00). She was really progressive on this surface last winter, winning twice but turning in a string of good performances in decent times, often travelling strongly and seeming best in a truly-run event. After a fair reappearance on turf, she shaped as if in good heart last time over 6f, travelling well but unable to quicken in the final 2f, and she should be suited by the return to 7f here; her wide draw isnít ideal but Hayley Turner has overcome similar wide draws here in the past with aplomb, and Glastonberry might be best served by waiting tactics anyway. Silver Lace, presumably preferred by George Baker to Glastonberry, would be another leading contender if ready to do herself justice after her long absence, as her win over 1m here last winter came in a good time and the form worked out very well. 1pt win GLASTONBERRY (14-1 bet 365, 12-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/07/2013 Keep The Secret W. J. Knight CrowleyJ KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 1m 3yo handicap at Kempton (8.00) KEEP THE SECRET is worth the chance to show that her impressive debut win last season wasnít a fluke. Sheís a fairly big price this morning for a couple of reasons. The first is that she didnít show much on her recent reappearance, but that came on turf and she may be a different proposition back on Polytrack. The second reason for her big price this morning is that her winning time on her debut at Lingfield was very ordinary, but that owes plenty to the fact that the race was run at a steady pace, certainly in comparison to the two other races run over course and distance that day. However, she could hardly have been more impressive, not well positioned (at the back of the field in a steadily-run race) but sweeping past her rivals almost on the bridle in the home straight, looking massively superior to a number of horses that have since shown fair form. Of course, she may have had a setback given her belated reappearance, but such was the impression she created on that sole Polytrack run that she looks worth chancing back on this surface. 1pt win KEEP THE SECRET (10-1 Betfred, Totesport, 9-1 bet365, Skybet)"


Notes:-
**NOTE 2nd KinightWJ in recent selections ][ OR74 here. Ran twice more in 2013 YARM & LNGA and both poor runs with last run off OR68. Best RP TS as 56 on Flat and 46 on Polytrack. Debut win Dec 21st 2012 with those behind mostly NW and OR50s-60s ab. The one exception was the well beaten 5/4f for MaJo who started winning over 10-12f later season on turf and ended up OR90s end 2013. Why wouldn't her debut win have been an 'accident' for a trnr who regularly used to get strong debuts with 2yos that didn't propgess much? It was a very late season debut. Interesting to think about the same 'stories' reoccuring and interacting time after time to produce similar but subtly different esults. MaJo having a horse running a clunker at a short price who improves for time and increased distance would be another regualr. ][.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/07/2013 Sugar Coated M. L. W. Bell MorrisL LING 11.5 GFF

HT Selection Text:-

"Itís no surprise to see Kastini at the head of the market for the extended 1m3f handicap at Lingfield today (2.30), as his form is working out very well and he looked the winner for a long way at Newbury last time. However, really quick ground is an unknown quantity to him Ė the Timeform description of the going at Newbury was good to soft, and itís likely to be very quick today Ė and thereís a valid case to be made for SUGAR COATED. She improved immediately for the step up to middle distances on her handicap debut when fifth on fast ground at Beverley last time, beaten less than two lengths, but that run was all the more meritorious because she raced wide for most of the race, doing well to get to the heels of the leaders from her position turning for home too. Her stable was on a poor run until recently (went 57 runs without a winner from late May to late June), but thereís nothing wrong with the stable form at the moment, with six winners and five runners-up from 21 runners so far this month. 1pt win SUGAR COATED (9-2 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
Weak 130rnr 3yo hcap (3 x NRs) with tw OR 60 down to 2 x OR45. Prob only one Prev wnr with A7 tw having won off OR55 with A5 4 runs back. Sugar Coated odd in OR54 but Coolmore Lads owned. 1 x 2yo run & 3 x 3yo to that LTO 5th & presume job just to get ANY win then retire her? ][ Race also int because Dalaway OR59 & Mdn & HT has put here up as an Eye of 2-3 occasions. Hats Off one of the OR45s... ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/07/2013 Setai B. J. Meehan FallonK LNGA 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the first division of the 6f filliesí maiden at Lingfield (4.00) it might be worth chancing SETAI. She showed a little early speed at Haydock on her debut before fading under a considerate ride, and itís worth emphasising again that Brian Meehanís 2yoís overall represent much better value second time out than on their debut; over the last five years his 2yo debutants have a record of 11 wins from 268 runs (4.1%) and a level stakes loss of 161 points, whereas on their second start their record is 49 wins from 235 runs and a profit of 17 points, and itís worth noting the 2yos ridden by Kieren Fallon on their debut this season have progressed well to their second run (notably Red Lady, tailed off first time out before bolting up at 25-1 under Fallon on her second start). The progeny of Setaiís sire Dubawi go well on Polytrack and she runs here instead of an engagement in a class 4 maiden at Newbury on Friday, where she had a low ballot number. 1pt win SETAI (16-1 BetVictor, 14-1 bet365, 12-1 general)"


Notes:-
**NOTE = This a Weds Tip = Form Factor = it seems mostly Stats based, = Does he makes more 'Stats' Tips when FF on to give him something to 'show and tell' ][ On FF programme add some other points to his selection process, said he had read earlier in season how well Setai going at home. Had a theory developing where he liked horses who were talked up on home work, ran poorly on Turf FTO, then AW STO. His thinking being that they were shoing up well on AW gallops at home. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/07/2013 Schmooze PerratLA ToplissL HTON 13 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"SCHMOOZE is at the top of her game at the moment and should go well at decent odds in the 1m5f handicap at Hamilton today (4.00). She's turning into a course specialist, her last five runs coming at this venue, and her Hamilton form figures at 1m+ read 224122. She did well to beat El Bravo three outings ago, and that form has been well advertised by the runner-up since, and she hasn't really had the run of the race on her last two starts, shaping well to get within a length of the progressive Wadacre Sanko last time having allowed the winner first run. This is a really competitive race with plenty that can be fancied, but Schmooze is entitle to be thereabouts again on her recent efforts. 1pt win SCHMOOZE (10-1 Stan James*, 9-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/07/2013 Ziekhani H. Morrison FallonK NMKJ 7 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"The 7f Warwick maiden won by ZIEKHANI last month looks strong form, and he can prove the point by making a winning handicap debut at Newmarket this evening (6.50). Whist the principals were always prominent at a track that favours horses racing on the speed, there are a couple of reasons to suggest that the form might be stronger than appears at first glance. Firstly, Muthmir, who finished second to Ziekhani at Warwick having been very heavily backed, again attracted huge support at Doncaster next time and won in good style (albeit over 6f). Secondly, the winning time at Warwick was only 0.4 seconds slower than that recorded in the filliesí Listed event run on the same card, despite the latter race being run in a marginally quicker time to the 3f pole. As a result, Ziekhani, whose earlier Leicester form has worked out nicely too, looks potentially very well handicapped off a mark of just 80. 2pts win ZIEKHANI (5-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
***NOTE 2pts Win ][ Drift 10/2 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/07/2013 Nonaynever R. Carr SullivanJP PFCT 10 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"At Pontefract (8.35) NONAYNEVER looks worth another try at 1m2f after shaping as if in better form recently than when he tried this sort of trip earlier in the season. Heís a half-brother to his stableís splendid campaigner Quito, but heís by Nayef and whilst he hasnít shown anywhere near the speed or ability of his half-brother, he has been a shade better than the result on his last three starts. He gave the impression 7f was inadequate at Thirsk three outings ago, not beaten far in the end after looking likely to drop back through the field a furlong out, and after having his chance ended when short of room at Wolverhampton next time, he was up with a pace which was too strong for the grade at Ayr last time over a mile, finishing a creditable fifth in a race where the first four were held up. Unless one of the horses in first-time headgear improves this wonít take much winning, and Nonayneverís prominent racing style is often an advantage here. 1pt win NONAYNEVER (14-1 Skybet, Stan James, 11-1 Ladbrokes, BetVictor)"


Notes:-
5yo off OR49 in a Maiden Hcap. Tw a 4yo off OR64 then 2 x 3yos on OR70 who have managed mdn plcs. ][ Pre-Race = Doesn't feel like the sort of race to be betting in & not on the b/ws. Is this more of a Ruth Carr's stable-now-in-form type selection dressed up as something else? stable has had 2-12 & 4 plcs since Jul 10th ][ Drift 6/1 oc. Race won by highest weighted 3yo which seems a likely angle in a Maiden Hcap. 8 runners and 3yos the first 4 home then a 5L gap back to last 4 (with big gaps bet them) made up of 3 x 4-5yo & other tw 3yo who fin last. Why put up a selction with this sort of profile??



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/07/2013 Hopefilly Ed Walker LaneM NWBY 5.1 GFF

HT Selection Text:-

"I was really taken by HOPEFILLY's win at Nottingham last time and she can go well off her feather weight in the Super Sprint at Newbury today (3.50). She shaped with promise on her debut at Lingfield despite her finishing position, and confirmed that at Nottingham; in what looked a fair maiden beforehand, she raced towards the stands side, and after mastering the pacesetter on that side, she drifted over to the centre and managed to overhaul Memory Styx (who won next time) in the closing stages. The bare form isn't good enough, but Hopefilly might have been on the wrong part of the track that day (the jockeys all came up the middle in the next race), and the time wasn't bad, only 0.2 seconds slower than that recorded by Sleepy Blue Ocean (who won his next two races too) in the older horses' handicap half an hour later. There is plenty of room for improvement and the likely strong pace should bring out the best in her. 1pt win HOPEFILLY (18-1 Betvictor, Stan James *BOG, 16-1 Bet365, Boylesports *BOG )"


Notes:-
Seems a lot based on hoping for improvement. Hard to tie down what the angle is and what he 'saw' in her NOTT run.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/07/2013 Witchy Woman E. M. Burke HaynesJ RIPN 6 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"Away from the bigger races, I do think WITCHY WOMAN has a good chance in the opener at Ripon (2.00). She probably needed the run on her debut at Yarmouth in a race that has worked out quite well, and then she got no sort of run over today's course and distance last time, giving the impression she would have finished in front of Elualla (who reopposes today and is shorter in the betting) given a clear passage. Favourite Lady Captain has a potentially tricky draw and her form in sellers isn't anything to get excited about, so dropped to this grade for the first time Witchy Woman will be a big player if able to build on the promise of that latest effort. 1pt win WITCHY WOMAN (5-1 Coral *BOG, 9-2 general - use *BOG firms )"


Notes:-
Both Tips today in 2yo races on major racing Sat with lots of his normal hcaps. Picking out a Tip here in a very weak 2yo Seller seems odd. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/07/2013 Yorksters Prince M. Fife SilvaRD3 RDCR 9 GFF

HT Selection Text:-

"Again Sunday's domestic action again isn't too exciting, but at least there is a Flat card this week and YORKSTERS PRINCE looks to have decent claims back at Redcar (5.10). He has built up a really good record over this course, winning four of his seven starts, albeit all in sellers or claimers over 1m2f rather than today's 1m1f trip. He bounced back to form when springing a surprise against some much higher-rated rivals here two outings ago, and shaped as if he was still at the top of his game at Newcastle last time; he had to work quite hard to get to the front in a race that was run at much the quickest early tempo of the three 1m2f races run at Newcastle that day, and although no match for the winner, he was still two or three lengths clear of the remainder approaching the furlong pole before fading. His four wins here have all come in clear-cut fashion and with conditions likely to be in his favour again, he could take plenty of pegging back. 1pt win YORKSTERS PRINCE (11-4 Betfred, Betvictor, *BOG, 5-2 general - use *BOG firms )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
23/07/2013 Attansky T. D. Easterby AllanD BVLY 16.1 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"Tim Easterby looks to have a strong hand in the 2m maiden handicap at Beverley today (8.30). Attention Seeker clearly has a strong chance, shaping well at Pontefract last time and no doubt connections will be keen to win with her (Easterby trained both the sire and the dam), but stable mate ATTANSKY might be value against her. He has been keeping on at one pace over 1m4f lately, shaping as if worth a try at this sort of trip even though he wouldnít be sure to stay on pedigree, and he should have the not inconsiderable advantage of racing round the inside all the way round from stall 1 here, whether he leads or tracks the pace. He is only a pound higher than when beaten just a short head over 1m4f here two outings ago, his form in first-time cheekpieces last time out is working out quite well and he should be thereabouts if he stays. 1pt win ATTANSKY (5-1 bet365, BetVictor, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Another Maiden Handicap Selection = Looking for horses with some devt? But needs checking whether expecting horses with a low level of form to improve is value. Prob need everything to go right bec have little real improvement to show if any. ][ Race won by TDE's Attention Seeker as 10/3f. Fentiman on that one & Allan on this. Both horses on weights to suit either jk but Fentiman seems to be vying with Allan as 1st Jk at present rather than clear 2nd. Allan absent on all TDE 2yos for a period earlier in season (long ban? Whip tot-up?) ][ ASeeker tw OR63 in 2yos 16f Mdn Hcap (erl for 16f 3yo so some should imprv for dist in theory). Attansky on OR56 down from init OR64 in Nurs. Looking back at Oct NOTT nurs run he was rep as BTOR on OR64. Why the lesser form?



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
23/07/2013 King Of Paradise E. J. Alston HartJ5 EDIN 12.5 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"KING OF PARADISE has always been a freegoing type, but he has kept going remarkably well stepped up in trip on his last two starts and he is worth the chance to show that middle distances suit him well at Musselburgh today (3.30). He has been allowed to stride on despite the step up in trip on both occasions, and although he set a fierce pace at Hamilton two outings ago over 1m3f, he never looked in any serious danger of being caught. He again went off very hard at Pontefract last time over 1m2f, and kept on really well once headed, suggesting that 1m4f might well be within his range; it was noticeable that his two nearest pursuers at Pontefract (who included the 6-4 favourite) both finished well beaten. Musselburgh is a track where frontrunners often do well and although St Ignatius sometimes makes the running, heíll surely be jeopardising his own chance if he tries to take on King Of Paradise from the widest draw. 1pt win KING OF PARADISE (9-2 bet365, Betfred, BetVictor*)"


Notes:-
Supp 3/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/07/2013 Fragonard J. Cecil QueallyTP LNGA 12 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"FRAGONARD has caught the eye on both career starts to date, albeit with a long interval in between, and she can justify connectionsí decision to persist with her at Lingfield this afternoon (3.40). She was foiled only by inexperience on her debut in a 7f Newmarket maiden on her debut two years ago; storming home to such effect that she would have been in front in another stride. Sadly she returned lame from that race and connections have had to take their time with her (though she was given an Oaks entry the following March), but she finally made her belated reappearance over 1m2f at Kempton last month. She finished only fifth, but showed she retains plenty of ability; she raced in mid-division and was outpaced when the very steady early tempo started to pick up, but she really found her stride in the closing stages to finish fifth, giving the impression she would have been seen in a much better light given a truer test at the trip. She ran a similar type of race to Silk Sari, who finished a staying-on seventh that day before winning next time, and Fragonard shapes as if the step up to 1m4f will be no problem. This looks much the stronger division of the maiden, and the hefty weight-for-age allowance means older horses tend to struggle against the 3yos in this type of maiden, but if she builds on that Kempton effort Fragonard should go close. 1pt win FRAGONARD (5-1 Paddy Power, 9-2 BetVictor, Boylesports, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Drift 9/2 oc ][ Lost touch Downhill. Beaten approx 35L ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/07/2013 Short Squeeze H. B. R. Palmer DwyerM SDWN 8.1 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"SHORT SQUEEZE has been better than the bare result on each of his last three starts, and although he needs to show that he can put his head in front (still a maiden), he should give another good account in the 1m handicap at Sandown (8.05). He seemed not to get home over 1m2f and 1m3f at Nottingham and Goodwood respectively in May, but shaped well on both occasions, especially at Goodwood, when he had everything in trouble 2f out before patently not getting home. He was duly dropped to a mile at Windsor last time, but after getting upset in the stalls and slightly missing the break, he shaped really well, making up a lot of ground from the rear in a race dominated by horses ridden more prominently, also having to be switched in the closing stages. Itís a concern that he hasnít delivered as much as he has threatened in his career to date (matched at 1.5 or less in running on four of his last five starts), but he remains potentially very well handicapped. 1pt win SHORT SQUEEZE (9-1 general)"


Notes:-
Supp 8/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
25/07/2013 Sinaadi C. E. Brittain DoyleB YARM 8 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"SINAADI is still a maiden and her form has been very patchy, but the signs were much more positive at Newbury last time despite her finishing position, and she can go well returned to a mile in the filliesí handicap at Yarmouth today (4.00). Highly tried in decent maiden company and not disgraced in a sub-standard Oh So Sharp Stakes as a 2yo, she has yet to build on a fair reappearance effort this year, but there were more positive signs last time at Newbury. She had plenty of use made of her racing into a strong headwind and also rather isolated towards the centre of the track (perhaps because of the headwind, the stands rail proved advantageous in the closing stages that day). She shaped well enough in the circumstances, finishing well in front of the likes of Millers Wharf and Jullundar, each of whom also raced prominently on the same part of the track; both of those horses have run much better since, and whilst itís hard to be totally confident that Sinaadi will do the same given her overall profile, the return to this trip should suit and sheís back against her own sex here. 1pt win SINAADI (9-1 Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James)"


Notes:-
3yo off OR67 in 5 runner Fils Hcap. Prob only 1 prev winner in rc the sole 5yo off OR65. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
25/07/2013 Clubland S. R. Bowring QuinnJ DONC 6 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"CLUBLAND had been shaping like a sprinter at the top of his game prior to his latest start, and with that effort easy to forgive, he looks overpriced in the 6f handicap at Doncaster tonight (6.45). He finished last at Beverley last time, but that was over 7f100y, a trip that is too far for him, and he was keen early and three wide to boot, shaping well enough until his earlier exertions and lack of stamina took their toll in the straight, and heís better judged on his two previous efforts. He bolted up on rain-softened ground at Nottingham three outings ago, and whilst at the time he seemed to have been favoured by a draw bias that day, the third and fourth, whom he beat easily on the same part of the track, both won handicaps next time. He then ran a cracker from what may have been a poor draw at Thirsk, one of three horses to pull well clear, the other two having raced next to the rail for most of the race whereas he was on the outside of the group. He remains fairly handicapped, having won twice off todayís mark earlier in the year (albeit on the all-weather), and if heís in the same form as he was at Nottingham and Thirsk he wonít be far away. 2pts win CLUBLAND (10-1 general)"


Notes:-
*** NOTE = 2pts Win ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
26/07/2013 Muhdiq M. Murphy BrownT ASCT 5 G

HT Selection Text:-

"Iíve been waiting for MUHDIQ to run again at Ascot since he made a highly promising reappearance at the track in May, and although he ran at Epsom last night, if heís turned out again in the 5f handicap today (4.50) heíll look overpriced. He didnít shape badly last night, 5f at Epsom always likely to be too much of a speed test, and the track probably not ideal either. However, heís probably better judged on that reappearance effort here over 6f; held up travelling well, he was in the unfavoured stands side group in a race where the far side provided nine of the first ten home. In the circumstances, he shaped very well to finish second of the eleven horses to race in the stands side group (11th overall). He shapes as if 5f here shouldnít be a problem, could have plenty more improvement in him after just ten career starts, and has a crack 3lb claimer on board today. 1pt win MUHDIQ (14-1 general)"


Notes:-
NR by 09



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
26/07/2013 Rosita H. Candy ScottA5 CHEP 6.1 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"The 2yo maiden auction event at Chepstow (5.45) looks far more interesting than most similar races at the track. Castagna Girl was a huge eyecatcher on her debut at Newbury, slowly away and shaping well all the way to the line, and I wouldnít put anybody off backing her. However, at a bigger price there might be plenty of improvement to come from ROSITA. She shaped with definite promise on her debut in a decent race for the grade at Nottingham on her debut, staying on steadily on what was probably the unfavoured stands side, shaping very much as if the step up to 6f would be in her favour. Itís interesting to see her trainer fit blinkers on her second start, perhaps suggesting better might have been expected at Nottingham, and Henry Candy has an excellent record with his 2yos second time out (10-53, +67 points over the last five years, although there was a 50-1 winner). Candyís three second-time-out 2yos this year have produced a 20-1 winner and 8-1 runner-up (beaten a short head), and with a draw that might be helpful, Rosita might be able to cause a surprise. 1pt win ROSITA (14-1 bet365, Boylesports, 12-1 BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes)"


Notes:-
Note Rosita Walked TP at NOTT and Attitude rather than ability the reason for the Hdgr = eg of how HT can make up his own stories and not check them. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
27/07/2013 Burning Blaze K. A. Ryan SpencerJP NMKJ 6 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"BURNING BLAZE caught the eye in no uncertain manner at Sandown last time over a trip that looks too far for him and he makes plenty of appeal back at 6f at Newmarket today (3.55). Tried over 7f last time, he was held up at a track where it has been tough to execute those tactics, but he made impressive progress from the back of the field to get upsides eventual runner-up Indignant before his efforts took their toll in the final 50 yards. He had also shaped really well over 6f on his reappearance on the Rowley course at Newmarket, staying on strongly up the centre of the track in a race where the finish unfolded towards the stands rail, and both his races this year have worked out really well. Jamie Spencer will presumably be flying off to Newmarket after riding in the first at Ascot to ride this horse amongst others, and Burning Blaze has some as-yet unfulfilled potential (held entries in the Middle Park and Mill Reef Stakes last year). Withdrawn on good to firm ground last time, today's forecast good ground should not be a problem. 1pt win BURNING BLAZE (10-1 Coral, Boylsport *BOG, 8-1 general - use *BOG firms )"


Notes:-
OR89 in 3yo Hcap ][ Supp 4/1 oc ][ Race won by Lucky Beggar off OR99 at 33/1 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
27/07/2013 Santefisio K. W. Dalgleish FortuneJ ASCT 7 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"The problem for punters looking at Ascot's mouthwatering card is not knowing if/when the rain is going to arrive, and how much. At the time of writing it seems like there might not be much rain, if any, by mid-afternoon, so I'm going to work on the assumption that the ground will be on the fast side of good. That means I have to give SANTEFISIO another chance in the International Handicap (3.15). Regular readers will know we were a bit unlucky not to land a big payday in the Buckingham Palace Stakles, when Santefisio was first home on the far side but only fourth overall, having shaped really well despite his finishing position in the Hunt Cup a couple of days earlier. He was below par at Newcastle last time, but that was on good to soft ground, and he's definitely best away from softish ground (form figures on ground described as good to soft or softer by Timeform read 88767). The unique demands of a big field on this track seem to bring out the best in him, and although he's 4lb higher here, if he's in the same form as at Royal Ascot he'll go well again; if backing him each way it's worth looking for those firms that are paying out on 5 places 1pt each way SANTEFISIO (33-1 Bet365, 28-1 Paddy Power, 25-1 Boylsport - all *BOG and ľ 12345)"


Notes:-
HT usually seems able to let results go, good or bad, in the knowledge that it's the long-term averages that matter not any individual race. But having, rarely does, taken to twitter to bemoan the prev ASCT 4th he's still moaning about being 'unlucky' here. Let it go HT. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
27/07/2013 Head Of Steam A. J. Perrett MorrisL ASCT 7 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"There's another horse that interests me at a big price in the International Handicap though (3.15), and that's HEAD OF STEAM. For a while now he has struck me as the ideal kind of horse for these big-field Ascot handicaps, as he has a tremendous cruising speed (which he has also showcased on Polytrack) and goes on the bridle for a long way in his races, exactly the type that does well on the straight track here. After winning at Goodwood in May, he again tanked along at Salisbury last time, but seemed to find 1m stretching his stamina, not having helped his cause by pulling hard during the early stages off the steady pace. He reverts to 7f here and although he faces some hardened course specialists, the likely strong pace will suit and he might be just the type to take to this unique straight track. 1pt each way HEAD OF STEAM (33-1 Bet365, Paddy Power, Boylsport - all *BOG and ľ 12345)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
28/07/2013 Can You Conga K. A. Ryan FanningJ ASCT 6 G

HT Selection Text:-

"CAN YOU CONGA didn't get the run of the race last time and this lightly-raced horse might be able to find the necessary improvement to win the 6f three-year-old handicap at Ascot today (3.40). He shaped really well on his debut in February this year on Polytrack at Lingfield, giving the impression he might have beaten the useful Riskit Fora Biskit had greenness not held him back, and after shaping quite well from a difficult draw at Newcastle next time , he got off the mark in workmanlike fashion at Doncaster on his third start. His latest start came in a competitive handicap at Pontefract against some experienced and in-form rivals, but he never really had much chance from his position; he was in last place turning for home, and horses seldom win from that sort of position at Pontefract these days unless the gallop has been a fierce one. Nevertheless, he did make a little late progress despite not enjoying the clearest of runs, and after just four runs he remains relatively unexposed, whilst his stable is enjoying its best month of the season to date. 1pt win CAN YOU CONGA (15-2 Bet365 *BOG, 7-1 Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James, Ladbrokes *BOG )"


Notes:-
OR82 in Hcap 5TO. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
29/07/2013 Corso Palladio LloydF O'BrienTJ UTOX 24 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"My concentration has been fixed firmly on the Flat in recent months, but there is one piece of National Hunt trainer form that has really caught my eye, which makes me think CORSO PALLADIO might be worth a small speculative bet at Uttoxeter this evening (7.50). His owner/trainer Frank Lloyd wasnít having much success during his previous stint of saddling horses under Rules (on a losing run of 90 from 2000 to 2007), but after returning from a six-year break his recent runners have almost all outperformed market expectations; his seven runners have produced a 40-1 winner, runners-up at 9-2, 25-1 and 33-1, and two thirds at 50-1. Two of the big-priced placed runners had previously been with Peter Bowen (though owned by Lloyd) and Corsa Palladio is a third, and his previous yard had been out of form when he was last seen. He hasnít always looked straightforward, and heís 11 now, but heís well handicapped on his bets form and has run well fresh in the past. 1pt win CORSO PALLADIO (14-1 Boylesports, Stan James, William Hill)"


Notes:-
Supp 7/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
30/07/2013 Jack's Revenge G. Baker CosgroveP GDWD 8 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"JACKíS REVENGE hasnít had his ideal circumstances on his last two starts, but back at probably his bets trip in a big field with juice in the ground he can go well in the 1m handicap on the opening day of Glorious Goodwood (4.50). He finished strongly into third in this race last year off a 2lb lower mark, and whilst runner-up Bancnuanaheireann was at least as big an eyecatcher, the rain that has fallen is probably less in his favour than it is for Jackís Revenge, whose form figures when the Timeform going description has the word ďsoftĒ in it read 291125. That latest soft-ground effort when fifth in the Lincoln was quite eyecatching too, and a reproduction off todayís 1lb lower mark would see him thereabouts; Iím not concerned about his draw as heís a confirmed hold-ip horse, best when threading his way through horses, and his chance may depend on the pace and luck in running (Copperwood and Bronze Prince tend to race prominently but there are perhaps not as many potential front-runners as usual in a race of this type). 1pt win JACKíS REVENGE (12-1 BetVictor, Boylesports, Stan James, Ladbrokes)"


Notes:-
14/1 (higher than recommend) at 12



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
30/07/2013 Mata Hari Blue M. Appleby MullenA GDWD 5 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 5f handicap (5.25) with the rain falling this morning I canít resist a small bet on MATA HARI BLUE. This takes a bit of explaining as her recent form suggests she is nowhere near as effective on turf as she is on Fibresand, yet is only 5lb lower on todayís surface. However, although she has clearly improved since joining Michael Appleby this year, she hasnít as yet had a chance to race on going softer than good according to Timeformís going description, and that may explain why the improvement clearly seen at Southwell hasnít been replicated elsewhere; whilst I definitely donít think that Southwell form ďequatesĒ to soft-ground form on turf as a generalisation, Mata Hari Blueís best efforts on turf for her previous trainer had all come on softish ground. She was a bit better than the last-of-seven result at Newmarket last time suggests, one of several still bang in line at the furlong pole before fading. She has several decent course runs to her name, including a soft-ground course-and-distance win (albeit off a much lower mark for her previous trainer), and if the rain really has got into the ground she could run a big race at huge odds, with plenty of her rivals seemingly more effective on decent ground. 1pt each-way MATA HARI BLUE (40-1 bet365 - quarter the odds 5 places. 40-1 BetVictor, StanJames, William Hill - all quarter the odds 4 places)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
31/07/2013 Cloudy Spirit HollinsheadA QuinnJ GDWD 21 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"The 2m5f handicap at Goodwood today (1.55) looks likely to be run at a decent gallop, and CLOUDY SPIRIT , as a hold-up horse who shaped very well last time, looks to have reasonable credentials. With several horses in the race habitual prominent runners, this should develop into a real test of stamina, and Cloudy Spirit, who has won over 3m over hurdles, isnít lacking in that regard; twice a winner over 2m2f on the Flat, she shaped as if in good form when a never-nearer fifth in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. Held up as usual, she shaped as if just about to start her challenge from the rear on the home turn when she was squeezed out, losing momentum for a few strides at a crucial stage of the race, but she rallied really well and passed plenty of rivals in the straight. Her run in this race last year is best ignored (badly hampered around halfway and was reported as having been struck into on her off fore) and the race should be run to suit here. 1pt win CLOUDY SPIRIT (16-1 Stan James, 14-1 general)"


Notes:-
Trainer is Reg Hollinshead's son who took up the licence when Reg died the previous month. Reg hadn't been seen on course for many years (being well into his 80s) so Andrew had prob been doing the 'training' for years before the change ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
31/07/2013 Accession C. G. Cox DrowneSJ GDWD 7 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"ACCESSION has been given a real chance by the handicapper and might be able to return to form in the 7f handicap (5.25) with underfoot conditions more in his favour than for some time. He hasnít raced on ground softer than good since shaping really well on his reappearance in the Newbury Spring Cup from an unfavourable draw, finishing an excellent sixth over a trip that stretches his stamina. He couldnít build on that on his next three starts on slightly quicker ground, but there was more promise last time at Leicester, travelling strongly for a long way before being unable to pick up in the closing stages. Heís been dropped a further 3lb for that effort, which means heís now 9lb lower than at Newbury, and providing the ground doesnít dry out too much, he could bounce back here. 1pt win ACCESSION (16-1 BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Stan James)"


Notes:-
Interesting to note race won by Magic City who looked a Group Sprinter after winning over 5f in April FTO for Hannon 2 years ago. Hadn't won since then until winning (now) 3 of last 4 starts May-July from OR80 start to OR90 here and will go up further. Hannon website noted MCity had 'lost his way' but not elaborated. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
31/07/2013 Emperatriz J. R. Holt HavlinR LEIC 8.3 GSS

HT Selection Text:-

"At Leicester (8.45) EMPERATRIZ probably has a better chance than her recent form figures suggest with the ground likely to be in her favour. She didnít get the clearest of passages on either of her first two starts this season, value perhaps for finishing a length or two closer, and she definitely didnít enjoy the run of the race at Beverley last time, drawn highest and three wide throughout, little chance of making an impact in the circumstances. She now drops into class 6 for the first time in her career and will encounter softish ground for the first time since landing winning her maiden at Newcastle last year; she also ran well with give underfoot on her first two starts last season. Itís an obvious concern that her small yard hasnít had a winner at all since she won that race, but in truth other than the very useful Number Theory, who has been running well facing some tough tasks, the stable has little ammunition (only two horses started at shorter than 8-1 over the last year), and although she has a difficult draw here, Emperatriz might be able to bounce back to form on this type of ground. 1pt win EMPERATRIZ (16-1 Paddy Power, Skybet, 14-1 general)"


Notes:-
OR62 in 3yo Hcap ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/08/2013 King George River A. Bailey FallonK GDWG 9.9 G

HT Selection Text:-

"KING GEORGE RIVER can show the benefit of his run five days ago in the Skybet Stakes with a big run in the opening handicap at Goodwood today (2.15). He finished well beaten that day on a return from an absence of over three months, but shaped very much as if in need of the run, travelling well until 3f out and given a very considerate ride as he dropped back through the field. Heís better judged on his previous efforts; he ran a terrific race in the Feilden Stakes in April on his first turf start for his current connections, no match for winner Intello but pulling right away from the remainder. That form has worked out exceptionally well; whilst third-placed Glory Awaits clearly improved for headgear when runner-up in the 2000 Guineas on his next start, itís now apparent that Intello is one of the best 3yos in Europe, unlucky in the French Guineas before readily winning the Prix du Jockey Club. King George River faces a tough task giving away weight to some progressive horses here, but that was the case when he was winning on the all-weather last winter, and his efforts when giving lumps of weight to horses such as the Mark Johnston pair Henry The Aviator and Sennockian Star read very well now. 1pt win KING GEORGE RIVER (16-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/08/2013 Benzanno A. M. Balding BrownT GDWD 9 G

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 1m1f apprentice handicap (5.25) BENZANNO should get the strong pace that suits and can go well after shaping as if in fair form under unfavourable circumstances last time. He often pulls hard, and that was the case at Sandown last time, held up towards the rear off a steady pace at a track where those tactics have been hard to execute recently. However, he finished off his race in pleasing style, and with Maverik, Calaf, Copperwood, Highland Duke, Jackís Revenge and Laughing Jack all possible to dispute the lead, this should be run at a decent pace, whilst Benzanno wonít lack for assistance from the saddle with Thomas Brown continuing to impress. 1pt win BENZANNO (14-1 BetVictor, 12-1 Betfred, Totesport, William Hill)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
02/08/2013 Elusivity D. O'Meara FallonK GDWD 5 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"ELUSIVITY has become something of a forgotten horse but heís not been with David OíMeara long and he looks overpriced given he might have the race run to suit in the King George Stakes at Goodwood today (3.40). Thereís a lot of pace amongst the low numbers, with Justineo, Jwala, Tickled Pink and Masamah all in the bottom six stalls (though the latter sometimes edges left), and Elusivity, who is a strong traveller when on his game, might get a good tow into the race up the centre, which certainly didnít look a disadvantageous part of the track judged on yesterdayís Richmond Stakes. Elusivity has been shaping quite well in defeat lately, running especially well over a fast 5f at York three outings ago when trying to give weight to the likes of Kingsgate Choice and York Glory (form worked out very well). He didnít get the run of the race in France next time, and shaped as if still in good form in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot last time, second home behind Khubala in the smaller stands side group. Both Khubala and Prodigality, fourth home in the stands side group, ran really well in a valuable York handicap next time, and whilst Elusivity ran no sort of race on his only previous start here, he still looks overpriced this morning; with three bookmakers offering ľ odds 1234 these may be the firms to concentrate on. 1pt each-way ELUSIVITY (25-1 Skybet, bet365, 16-1 Ladbrokes (all ľ 1234)"


Notes:-
Gp2 race & 5yo OR103. 17 runner field & despite a 'Gp2 entire field have ORs bet 102 to 112 with just 3 110+ & 2 of those penalised ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/08/2013 Picture Dealer Gary L. Moore DoyleJ GDWD 6 G

HT Selection Text:-

"PICTURE DEALER is a sprinter at the top of his game, and from a potentially decent draw he can complete the hat-trick in the Stewards' Sprint at Goodwood today (2.05). He surged four lengths clear of his rivals at Newmarket two outings ago, and again looked most progressive at York last time, having to wait for a run before producing another strong run to pass most of the field in the final two furlongs. With plenty of pace on both sides of the track, he should get a good tow into the race, and many of the likely dangers here are drawn high, which might be a disadvantage on the evidence of yesterday. This is a step up in class, but he remains very well handicapped, and as at York has only the single 6lb penalty to carry (would be 4lb higher had this not been an early-closing race, and likely to go up still further when reassessed this week after the York win). 1pt win PICTURE DEALER ( 7-1 Boylsport, Betvictor *BOG, 13-2 general - use *BOG firms )"


Notes:-
4yo OR79. 1 x unp 2yo run. Started on OR70 & OR80 at highest ][ WTRB = Jk Said Horse Reared as stall opened ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/08/2013 Danisa BridgwaterDG DaviesWT3 LNGA 12 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Lingfield this evening (8.00), whilst Kastini will understandably be popular, DANISA looks interesting despite her lack of all-weather experience. She looked ahead of her mark at Chepstow two outings ago before patently failing to stay 2m, and then was unsuited by tactics at Warwick last time, held up off a steady pace at a track where those tactics seldom work, but finding plenty from the rear to chase home two more prominently-ridden rivals. The form is working out well and Danisa is just the type of strong traveller who excels on Polytrack, whilst her sire Shamardal has a 21% strike rate on Polytrack in this country. 1pt win DANISA ( 13-2 Coral, Betvictor *BOG, 6-1 general - use *BOG firms )"


Notes:-
Drift 6/1 oc *** ][ Fin 5th wrong side of a 7L gap back from front 4 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
04/08/2013 Cushion J. H. M. Gosden BuickW NWBY 12 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"CUSHION has yet to live up to her pedigree (by Galileo out of Attraction), but she might be able to run a lot better than the ratings and odds suggest in the 1m4f Listed fillies' event at Newbury today (3.50) and she makes a little each-way appeal. It's not surprising she is a big price here as she was comprehensively beaten by Songbird, who is deservedly a warm favourite today. However, Cushion made the running that day, as she had on her seasonal debut, and I thought she looked much more convincing under a more restrained ride when winning her maiden here last time; racing in mid-division in a steadily-run race, she made steady progress through the final 3f and was well on top at the line, giving the impression today's further step up in trip would be in her favour. Her stable is in excellent form and Winsili had similarly unlikely prospects on the book before winning yesterday's Nassau Stakes. 1pt each way CUSHION ( 28-1 Betvictor *BOG, 25-1 Stan James, bet365 *BOG )"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 1pt EW bet = 2pts bet ][ OR80 at time of Race after Mdn win 3TO as 3yo after 2 places from 3 runs as a 2yo. Usual Listed race with filies rated OR93 & 95 as low as 6/1 & 4/1 in betting. Fav only 103 & only other above 100 a 4 race maidn. So 28/1 for an OR80 that might be able to run OR86, say, is too hign. Connections a positive too in this case. Yes, they are chasing Black Type for an OB filly but people like Gosden & Stoute know that OR80s fillies can place & win. The Form Book is littered with fillies who had run to OR75-85 for long enough to establish their form who suddenly get rated OR95-105 after a couple of goes in Listed+ & then retire.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/08/2013 Edith Anne P. T. Midgley FentonM RIPN 5 S

HT Selection Text:-

"There looks to be plenty of rain around in the Ripon area this morning, and one horse that might become much more interesting if, as seems likely, the ground turns soft is EDITH ANNE in the 5f selling handicap (2.45). Sheís only moderate, as youíd expect in a race like this, but she is the only one of these to have won a race this season, and that came on soft ground at Redcar. She had also made the frame on very testing ground on her second start as a juvenile, and she wasnít disgraced on quick ground at Beverley last time. Sheís potentially well drawn and this looks weak even for the grade, many of her rivals either unproven on the ground or yet to show much form this year. 1pt win EDITH ANNE (7-1 Betfred, Boylesports, Stan James*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/08/2013 Is This Love J. A. Osborne SweeneyD WTON 8.6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Wolverhampton (5.30) itís no surprise to see Lexington Blue and Angel Cake at the head of the market after their respective impressive recent wins. However, at much bigger prices IS THIS LOVE might be worth an each-way bet. She shaped with definite promise on her second and most recent start at this track, held up towards the rear in a steadily-run ace, travelling well but having to wait for a run as the winner kicked clear turning for home. She shaped well in staying on into second under considerate handling, albeit a long way behind the winner, and it may be this surface will prove her forte (not completely disgraced in two turf starts since), and she looks potentially well handicapped off a mark of 59 if thatís the case. 1pt each-way IS THIS LOVE (20-1 Stan James, 16-1 Betfred, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Skybet, Totesport)"


Notes:-
OR59 3yo in all-aged Hcap. No run at 2yo & this 5TO 3yo ][ Drift 11/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/08/2013 Mutafaakir R. Carr SullivanJP CATT 6 SGS

HT Selection Text:-

"MUTAFAAKIR has shaped as if still in good heart lately and he looks overpriced to repeat his course and distance win in the 6f handicap at Catterick today (4.45). He hasn't produced a bad performance this season, but has been better than the bare result on his last two starts, especially last time. Two outings ago at Pontefract he was unsuited by the way the race unfolded, finding himself well back entering the short straight, a position from which few horses have landed a blow at that track this year. Last time at thirsk, when refitted with cheekpieces, the draw was against him and after being forced quite wide and well away from the favoured rail, he did well to finish as close as he did. He was only caught for third in the final strides by Roker Park, who raced much closer to the rail than he did, and while the latter was returning to form in headgear, I'm not sure their respective prices this morning are as they should be. There are two or three that like to get on with it in the race and Mutafaakir, who shaped well both times he has encountered softish ground this season, should get a good tow into the race, as was the case when landing his sole win to date here in June. 1pt win MUTAFAAKIR ( 8-1 Stan James, Betfred *BOG, 15-2 William Hill *BOG )"


Notes:-
Supp 4/1 oc ][ CIR = Midfield, effort to 3rd ins-1f, FdLt, beaten around 2L ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/08/2013 Glastonberry G. Deacon BakerG KTNA 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Kempton in the 6f fillies handicap this evening (9.00) it's no surprise to see Dodina a short-priced favourite after her impressive Yarmouth win, and if she repeats that form on Polytrack she will be hard to beat, but GLASTONBERRY makes a fair bit of each-way appeal. She has been extremely consistent on this surface, and whilst I had thought prior to her last run here over 7f that that was her best trip, she showed such a good burst of speed to come from near the back to challenge that she is probably still of interest back at this trip. She appeared to be clearly better at the weights on this surface that day than Commandingpresence, who is now 5lb worse off after making the most of the big stands rail bias on turf at Lingfield on Saturday, and I'm surprised they are similar prices at the time of writing. Glastonberry usually gives her running on this surface, goes well for George Baker, and I'll be disappointed if she doesn't at least make the frame. 1pt each way GLASTONBERRY ( 6-1 William Hill, Betvictor *BOG, 11-2 general - use *BOG firms )"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 1pt EW so a 2pts Selection ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/08/2013 Umneyati J. J. S. Tate CallanN BTON 5.3 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"UMNEYATI looks potentially very well treated and should be hard to beat in the nursery at Brighton (2.20). Off the mark in workmanlike style in a weak Lingfield maiden on her second start, she shaped as if she was very much going the right way when runner-up to Scruffy Tramp, the front two pulling a long way clear by Lingfield standards off what wasnít a strong pace. The winner shaped quite well in a minor event at Bath next time, and the well-beaten fourth has won a nursery. Umneyati reverts to turf now, but she shaped well on her sole previous turf outing at Leicester, finishing fourth; the first three in that race are all now rated in the 90s, and Umneyati remains potentially well handicapped off a mark of 71. 1pt win UMNEYATI (5-2 bet365, Coral, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Another vague looking analysis that doesn't tie together as a full story. Link to FTO run & 1st 3 now rated 90+ is bogus in at least 2 ways - how valid the 90s ratings are and how that relates to FTO form. Also she was BEATEN off OR66 LTO & now runs off OR71. How does that make her value at 5/2? ][ Form Factor day & HT said on the programme that he was struggling for selections today despite the amount of racing. Gave impression this wasn't a strong bet but more like he 'Had' to put up a second selection. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/08/2013 Red Pilgrim J. A. R. Toller Milczarek KTNA 11 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"RED PILGRIM is an interesting handicap debutant upped in trip in the 1m3f handicap at Kempton this evening (7.30). After two modest introductory efforts as a 2yo, he wasnít seen again until contesting a 1m maiden at this track last month, but there was definite promise on that occasion. Held up near the back of the field in a race not run at a true gallop, he travelled nicely, but was caught for speed when the leaders made their move in the straight. However, he stayed on steadily in the final furlong, shaping as if a step up in trip would be in his favour - although there is some speed on the damside of his pedigree, his sire Authorized is unsurprisingly showing himself to be an influence for stamina (strike rate and profitability increase significantly beyond 1m2f). The form of that recent maiden is working out well, with the third and fourth winning next time and the seventh showing significant improvement when runner-up in an Ascot maiden on his next start, and although Red Pilgrim needs to find a little improvement, there must be a good chance he will do so stepped up in trip here. 1pt win RED PILGRIM (14-1 Betfred, Coral, Skybet, Totesport)"


Notes:-
4TO, OR65 bw in 3yo hcap. 4 x prev winners in race OR74-78. Other 4/5TO types with scope to imprv incl 1 x Hannon & Charlton 5TO for The Queen OR72. Overall seems a weak line of reasoning. HT doesn't take relative strength scope of opposition into account in summary. Also doesn't talk about trnr's MO at all. As ever no Physical input so just a quite vague like for a 14/1 shot in an unquantified race based on a bit of likeable VT to his eyes and UIT. ][ Joint TW fin 1st & 2nd with Queen's Candoluminescence 3rd as a more likely Hcap improver.



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/08/2013 Presburg J. M. Tuite KeniryLP BTON 11.9 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"PRESBURG might be the interesting one in the Brighton Challenge Cup (3.50). He hasnít had the run of the race at Sandown on his last two starts but has shaped as if in good form on both occasions, very much catching the eye after a troubled passage two outings ago, and then making late headway from the back of the field in a race run at a steady pace. He shaped as if this trip would suit when staying on strongly to collar odds-on favourite Highland Duke over 1m2f here in May, and that form has worked out very well (second, third and fourth all won since). Last yearís winner Ethics Girl is also worth plenty of respect, but Presburg is narrowly preferred. 1pt win PRESBURG (8-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/08/2013 Winged Icarus B Ellison SwiftD SWEL 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Thereís a terrific 1m handicap at Southwell today (6.30), chock full of interesting horses, but none are more interesting than WINGED ICARUS on his return to this venue. His overall form is very moderate - he has been beaten at least ten lengths on all bar one of his starts. That start was his only one here, however, and he produced one of the most impressive 2yo Fibresand seen in recent years. Although that was a weak race, the way he blitzed his field that day strongly suggested he will prove to be an out-and-out Southwell specialist, soon in front, clear from a long way out and recording a very fast time despite his jockey only nudging him out through the final furlong. The time was the fastest recorded over course and distance by any horse in the last 20 years, and even though the track was riding very fast that day, it was still a remarkable run for a 2yo. His sire Speightstown was a top-class dirt horse and his progeny at Southwell to date have form figures of 412111233214. Heís with a different trainer now, but Brian Ellison is in great form and it should be no surprise if he bounces back to form here. 2pts win WINGED ICARUS (11-2 Betfred, 5-1 BetVictor, Coral*)"


Notes:-
***NOTE 2pts Win ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/08/2013 Kwanto M. Appleby MullenA SWEL 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 7f filliesí handicap at Southwell (4.55) KWANTO looks worth chancing on her Fibresand debut. She has only one piece of form to date, but she recently switched to Michael Applebyís yard, being by Piccolo there is every chance the switch to this surface will bring about improvement. Piccoloís overall strike rate is around 8% but itís 13% on Fibresand, showing a 100-point profit backed blindly. Her full sister Sarangoo won twice at 7f and Kwanto is running off a basement mark here. 1pt win KWANTO (8-1 Boylesports, Paddy Power*)"


Notes:-
A double Switcher in effect, both trnr & SWEL. 3yo off OR50 in an all-ager. ][ Update = 4 other runs to end 2013, 1 x place at WTON 6f and 4/13 SWEL. But, down to OR46 for last run and well beaten 9th. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/08/2013 Geeaitch A. T. Carson CarsonW LNGA 10 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Lingfield (5.20) GEEAITCH looks interesting now he returns to Polytrack. After showing virtually nothing in three maidens on this surface last season, he didnít improve for a break on his handicap debut on turf, but was a different story back on Polytrack on his next start, finishing second to a well-handicapped rival despite racing very wide. However, it was his next start that suggested he might really do well on this surface; he surged right away from Boonga Roogetta and Outlaw Tron in the closing stages, despite carrying his head a bit high (as seems his wont).The runner-up won her next four starts, the third won his next two, and the fourth also won next time. This is the first time since that run that Geeaitch has raced on Polytrack, and although his stable form is a bit of a concern, he still looks the most interesting runner here. 1pt win GEEAITCH (9-1 general)"


Notes:-
4yo off OR65 carr 10-0. Win goes back to 3yo. Previous Selection Posh Boy also in race. Now had 3 x 3yo hcap runs unp & down to OR62. Must be better than that. ][ Posh Boy won to finally confirm some of HT's & PRev view of him. 6/1 to 5/1 and staying on at finish on his second go at 10f. This time ridden by G Baker (Wall's GoTo jk) and not an A3. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/08/2013 Beau Mistral P. Green SousaSD HYDK 5 G

HT Selection Text:-

"BEAU MISTRAL shaped as if ready to strike last time and can take advantage of a much-reduced mark in the 5f filliesí handicap at Haydock tonight (8.30). She made her challenge widest of all towards the centre of the track at Nottingham last time, but the stands rail seemed to be the place to be and after shaping as well as any towards the centre for much of the race she faded to finish seventh, still beaten less than four lengths; itís interesting to note that Rock On Candy, who raced next to her at Nottingham, finished well beaten but came out and won next time, though itís possible the ground wasnít testing enough for her at Nottingham. Beau Mistral hasnít won for over a year, but sheís now racing off a mark 13lb lower than for her last win; sheís also 6lb lower than when second home on the unfavoured stands side over this course and distance in June (when wearing first-time headgear). She probably hasnít had the best of the draw on each of her last four starts, but on yesterdayís evidence Iíd say a high draw should be an advantage if anything, and she might be able to bounce back to winning form. 1pt win BEAU MISTRAL (8-1 general)"


Notes:-
4yo off OR66 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/08/2013 Sweetnessandlight R. J. Ward IwataY ASCT 8 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"In the Shergar Cup Mile (12.55) SWEETNESSANDLIGHT might be worth the chance to prove that the impression she created over this course and distance last time wasnít misleading. She has taken her time to find her form this season, but she shaped very well against a pace bias last time; held up in a steadily-run race, she was first off the bridle entering the straight and was still disputing last with a furlong to go, but stayed on strongly from thereon in, giving the impression that with another 100 yards she would passed the likes of fourth-placed Annecdote, who won a Group Three event next time. There looks to be the possibility of a stronger pace here and this looks her most realistic task for some time (first time in a handicap since landing a hat-trick at this time last year). 1pt win SWEETNESSANDLIGHT (20-1 bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Stan James)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/08/2013 Prairie Ranger A. M. Balding AllpressL ASCT 12 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"PRAIRIE RANGERís form looks solid across the board and he looks sure to put in another bold bid to improve his trainerís excellent record at this particular meeting in the Shergar Cup Classic (2.40). He pulled well clear along with the John Gosden-trained favourite on his handicap debut at Newbury in May, and after a two-month absence again shaped very well to finish fourth over todayís course and distance last time, pulling well clear along with the three in front of him, who all came into the race with progressive profiles. Only a pound higher here, he meets Broughton, who finished well held, on 5lb better terms after the latterís victory next time out. His trainer Andrew Balding has a very good record at this meeting (9 wins from 33 runners, with an actual/expected figure of around 1.91, the SPs of all his runners suggesting he should have had between four and five winners). The obvious concern is his riderís lack of Ascot/British experience, but Lisa Allpress has ridden over 1,000 career winners, and won last yearís New Zealand jockey premiership, and I think the fact that an overseas/female jockey is on board is factored into the price. 1pt win PRAIRIE RANGER (6-1 bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Would normally let HT's comments on Jks go but his text here seemed misplaced. Having watched the whole meeting a number of jks without European experience looked less than assured. Allpress looked a bit out of place and not up to the other's standards. She gave Broxbourne a severe hold-up ride in one race that probably had MaJo erupting. He was still bringing it up in interviews after a 1-2-3 in a later race (he had multiple runners in more than one race & 5 of the 10 in the race he won). Here Allpress was unable to hold back and settle the fierecly pulling PRanger & he faded in the HS. Meanwhile Gerard Mosse (older and with worldwide experience) won this race with an accomplished front-running ride for MaJo & won the overall jks prize for most points accumulated. A Hopeful pre-race summary on the lines of 'they are all top class jks so we should be alright' would not have proved correct in some cases. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/08/2013 Gravitational C. F. Wall SandersS LEIC 6 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"GRAVITATIONAL can start fulfilling his undoubted promise in the 6f handicap at Leicester today (4.25). Heís a horse I put up as an eyecatcher after his seasonal debut over 7f at this track, when he travelled strongly before finishing second to Intrigo. Time has shown that the winner was thrown in off a mark of 74 (now rated 96), and Gravitational looked unlucky when selected in this column next time, again travelling very strongly but having to wait for a run before pulling well clear with eventual winner Homage, who went very close off a 7lb higher mark next time. Whatís interesting is that at the time of those two runs Chris Wallís yard hadnít really got going, winnerless in 2013 at the time (albeit from a small number of runners), whereas the stable is going well at the moment, with five winners (four in handicaps) from its last 12 runners. Gravitational has the highest draw here, which could be significant with high numbers doing well here lately Ė the two highest draws have produced the winner of the last ten sprint handicaps here, and although some of those were very small fields, it does seem to have been an advantage to challenge closer to the stands side. Gravitational travels strongly and there looks to be plenty of pace on here, so his absence from the track since May looks the only concern. Leicester 4.25 Gravitational 1 pt win"


Notes:-
Drift 11/4 oc ][ Winner made all while Tip held up in rear. ][ HT moaning about being 'Unlucky' with his Tips again ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/08/2013 Floating Ballerino O. Stevens BentleyH WDSR 8.3 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"The nursery at Windsor today (7.10) features two horses that very much caught the eye last time, and at the prices this morning FLOATING BALLERINO is preferred to Rising Dawn. The latter is undoubtedly interesting up in trip on nursery debut after shaping with bags of promise from the rear at Sandown last time, especially representing the Hannon/Hughes combination round here, but time might show that Floating Ballerino ran into a useful prospect at Nottingham last time; the winner, Rising Breeze, was a well-backed debutant, and the front two pulled well clear in what was a fair time. That sets the standard here and I think he looks potentially very well handicapped off a mark of 70, even if there is a possibility that Rising Dawn could make a mockery of his own mark. 1pt win FLOATING BALLERINO (100-30 Bet Fred*, Coral*, Ladbrokes*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/08/2013 Errigal Lad G. Woodward MilczarekK NOTT 6.1 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"ERRIGAL LAD doesn't win very often, but if he does have another victory in him it's likely to be over Nottingham's 6f trip, so he looks a bit overpriced over that course and distance today (6.05). He has run most of his best races in recent years at this track; his form figures over today's course and distance read 1218, and on the latter occasion he finished best of those who raced more towards the centre of the track on a day when the stands rail seemed favoured. He has also finished strongly from a long way behind on each of his three races over 5f here, and this track definitely seems to bring out the best in him. It has to be said he will probably be a hostage to fortune here on a couple of counts; if there is a stands side bias again that will prove difficult to overcome (drawn in stall 5), and he's the type who is always likely to need a strong gallop, often getting too far behind before finishing with a flourish. However, there does appear to be a bit of pace amongst the low numbers and if he gets the run of the race he could cause a surprise. 1pt win ERRIGAL LAD (18-1 Bet Victor*, Sky Bet, 16-1 general - use BOG firms)"


Notes:-
8yo off OR47 and bw ][ 5 x NR & drift 7/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/08/2013 Gone Dutch J. R. Fanshawe TylickiF KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Unfortunately, Hugh has been taken ill at short notice and is unable to provide any text to accompany his sole selection for Wednesday, which is the James Fanshawe-trained GONE DUTCH (7.45) in the one-mile handicap at Kempton Park. Hopefully, Hugh will enjoy a quick recovery and be back later in the week. 1pt win GONE DUTCH (8/1 Betfred*, 7/1 bet 365, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral)"


Notes:-
HT tweeted in am that he had been up all night with food poisoning ][ Supp 7/2 oc ][ 3yo Hcap, GDutch a 4TO & off OR69. Not 'strong' or progressive opposition with only 3 prev winners in field and all wins far enough back to be on ceiling ORs. GD run in 3 maidens, all on Gd turf, 7th/10 7f LING, 3/10 7.5f BVLY & 7/14 6f SALS. So back UIT, switch to Polytrack, 4TO for Fanshawe. TF preumably a reason = GD win brought record to 8-13 in August. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/08/2013 Tenbridge D. Haydn-Jones JessopR3 CHEP 8.1 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"TENBRIDGE goes very well at Chepstow and with give in the ground, and remains well handicapped on her best form, so she looks worth an interest despite concern about the trip in the 1m fillies' handicap today (6.15). She has been a bit better than the bare result when runner-up in two 7f contests at this track this summer, looking the winner for a long way and probably making her move too early when second to the well-handicapped Peak Storm here in May, then beaten by a horse that hugged the stands rail last time in a race where the remainder of the field came up the centre of the track. Any more rain wouldn't go amiss as she's clearly very well suited by the mud, and she is still 10lb lower than when winning at Lingfield on soft ground last summer. 1pt win TENBRIDGE (4-1 general - use BOG* firms)"


Notes:-
5 runner race. Tenbridge a 4yo OR57 with other four split of 3/4yo in OR70 to 74 range ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/08/2013 Mysterious Wonder P. A. Kirby MoscropE7 NEWC 6 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"MYSTERIOUS WONDER has been shaping as if crying out for the return to 6f and has to be of interest now he reverts to that trip at Newcastle today (5.55). He has run similar races on all three starts over 5f since joining his current stable, outpaced before finishing with a flourish, again shaping as if the step back up in trip would suit when a never-nearer fourth at Doncaster last time. Heís still a maiden, but few amongst his rivals are habitual winners, and whilst heís not certain to get a decent gallop here, it will still be disappointing if he canít prove more of a factor over this trip. 1pt win MYSTERIOUS WONDER (6/1 bet365*, Stan James*)"


Notes:-
3yo off OR54. Tw OR65. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/08/2013 Gamesome O. Stevens BarzalonaM NOTT 6.1 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"A position close to the stands rails often seems to have been an advantage at Nottingham this season, especially in 2yo events, and although the stalls are in the centre of the track today, GAMESOME might still be best positioned to take advantage in the opening maiden (2.00). He shaped a fair bit better than the result on his debut at Goodwood, done no favours by the draw and forced wide but travelling smoothly a long way off the pace and making good headway at one stage before fading. Heíll know more today, shaped at Goodwood as if the drop in trip wouldnít be an inconvenience, and heís clearly held in a bit of regard at home, the stableís only entry in the Dewhurst, Royal Lodge and Champagne Stakes (yard has several useful sprinting 2yos). Odds-on favourite Makhfar shaped very well on his debut and could conceivably be different class to his rivals, but if the draw proves a factor he could be at a disadvantage here. 1pt win GAMESOME (7/1 Betfred*, 13/2 Ladbrokes*, Coral*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/08/2013 Trojan Rocket M. Wigham LeveySM NMKJ 6 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"The radar map suggests there has been plenty of rain around at Newmarket this morning, and whilst there are one or two horses that might be suited if the ground eases, TROJAN ROCKET might be the most interesting. He shaped really well two outings ago on easy ground at Newcastle, staying on steadily from an unpromising position, and he was again not helped by his track position last time over todayís course and distance, one of two isolated against the stands rail, readily beating his sole rival on that part of the track. He has won twice over this course and distance and any further easing of the ground will be in his favour, and heís fairly handicapped on his best form. 1pt win TROJAN ROCKET (10/1 bet365*, Bet Victor*, Stan James*, Coral*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/08/2013 Fashion Fund B. J. Meehan HanaganP NWBY 6 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"The 6f filliesí maiden at Newbury today (1.35) might not be quite so full of future stars as is sometimes the case, and FASHION FUND looks interesting after a promising debut. She was rather isolated from stall one at Goodwood that day but shaped as if in need of the run (like so many 2yo debutants from her stable), travelling smoothly for a long way before fading under a considerate ride, also a bit isolated from where the main action unfolded (first four home included the three highest-drawn runners). The form is already beginning to work out well with the fourth and fifth winning next time, and Fashion Fund looks the type to find plenty of improvement. Tea In Transvaal is unsurprisingly favourite after shaping with bags of promise on her debut at Sandown, but thereís a suspicion there were a few ordinary ones close up at the finish that day (3rd, 6th and 7th beaten at Kempton, Ayr and Chepstow subsequently) and she started at double-figure odds at Ascot and doesnít hold any fancy entries. The only runner in the field with a Pattern entry is Lightning Thunder, who has to be respected given how well her stableís 2yos have been going, but might want further (entry is in the Filliesí Mile), and whilst similar comments could be made about Fashion Fund given the stamina on the damside of her pedigree, she showed enough early speed at Goodwood to suggest she can be effective at this trip 1pt win FASHION FUND ( 7-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/08/2013 Gender Agenda M. L. W. Bell EganDE3 NMKJ 7 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"In the filliesí nursery at Newmarket (1.50) GENDER AGENDA might be able to find the necessary improvement. She looks harshly handicapped on what she has achieved to date, but she hasnít had anything like an appropriate test of stamina in three starts to date. After needing the run on her debut, she then finished a creditable third at Kempton in a 7f event run at a very steady pace, and she then caught the eye dropped to 6f on her latest start; again the race was run at a very steady pace, which would have been no good to her based on her pedigree (half-siblingsí seven career wins have all come at 7f+, including four as 2yos), but she stayed on nicely in the closing stages, no chance with winner Along Again (3rd in a Group Three event next time) but shaping well. A couple further back in the field have won since, and Gender Agenda, with a good 3lb claimer booked, looks an interesting handicap debutante. 1pt win GENDER AGENDA ( 12-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/08/2013 Sir Maximilian N. J. Vaughan DonohoeS DONC 5 GGF

HT Selection Text:-

"At Doncaster (4.15) Iím going to take a chance on SIR MAXIMILIAN despite obvious reservations about the fact that he has changed stables since his last run. That last effort at Chester was such a good one, however, that I had him down as very much one to be with next time, and if heís in the same form just 35 days later then heíd go close here. He raced three wide throughout over 6f at Chester, but was still strong at the finish in fifth place, shaping really well in the circumstances; generally horses three wide all the way round there finish well beaten. His overall path through the race was similar to or slightly wider than eventual third Intransigent, who was beaten only narrowly in a Listed race next time, and if heís in the same form here Sir Maximilian would be hard to beat. 1pt win SIR MAXIMILIAN ( 10-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
4yo OR89. DunlopEA as 3yo. WilliamsI 4yo until this run. Won off OR77 for Dunlop & OR84 for Williams. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/08/2013 Bold Prediction E. M. Burke HaynesJ7 PFCT 8 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"BOLD PREDICTION ran really well last time in a decent contest and, with a good 7lb claimer on board, he should go well in the 1m handicap at Pontefract today (4.20). He seems to have taken well recently to being stepped up in trip and ridden more prominently, and after beating the in-form Aeronwyn Bryn in a three-runner event at Ayr two outings ago, he shaped well in a useful class 2 event at Newmarket last time, always thereabouts and showing a good attitude under pressure to chase home some progressive rivals. His prominent racing style should stand him in good stead at this track, and his rider, who won on him at Ayr, has looked very good value for his 7lb claim lately. 1pt win BOLD PREDICTION ( 6-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/08/2013 Eland Ally T. P. Tate FentonM THSK 5 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"ELAND ALLY has dropped to a favourable mark and, despite reservations about his draw, he looks worth chancing at Thirsk today (3.00) at a big price after showing signs of a return to form last time. He has presumably been hard to train since his 3yo days, but he has probably been a bit better than the bare result from unhelpful draws on his last two starts, especially last time at Nottingham; tried in cheekpieces, he raced more towards the centre of the track on a day when the stands rail was the place to be, and he probably didnít do too badly to finish fifth. Those that ended up on the same part of the track included Quality Art, Beau Mistral, Ambitious Icarus and Rock On Candy, all of whom won one of their next two starts. The problem is Eland Allyís low draw could again prove difficult to overcome, but heís priced accordingly and he looks worth chancing in the circumstances. 1pt win ELAND ALLY (25-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/08/2013 Lucky Surprise G. A. Kelleway SilvaRD3 LEIC 5 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"In the opening maiden at Leicester (5.00) it might be worth taking a chance each-way at a big price on LUCKY SURPRISE. She made her debut in a 6f maiden at Newmarketís July meeting, a tough introduction for a filly eligible to race off a feather weight in races such as todayís maiden auction, and she shaped with a degree of promise, admittedly helped by racing prominently in a contest run at a steady pace, but still looking in contention for a place at the furlong pole before being passed by four or five horses inside the final 100 yards. She disappointed at Pontefract next time over todayís trip of 5f, but she wonít be the last horse held up from a wide draw at that track never to look like getting involved. She drops in class here (first time in a maiden auction event), is back against her own sex, and has what could be a very helpful draw, so although she will be eligible for nurseries after this, a return to the promise she showed on debut might enable her to get involved in the finish despite her big price. 1pt each-way LUCKY SURPRISE (33-1 Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Stan James)"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 1pt EW so a 2pt bet ][ Both Selections on day in 2yo races. On PRFs LSurprise 6lbs off top rated (with figure factored in for improvement of top rtd). 33/1 a ridiculous price bec her 9th in a NMKJ mdn FTO close to 2nd best prev form on offer. Pic also shows a reasonable size one & 33/1 in this auction should be rabbits. ][ Supp 7/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/08/2013 Mister Mayday G. Baker CosgraveP LEIC 6 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"MISTER MAYDAY might be able to take advantage of his easiest task to date on his nursery debut at Leicester today (5.30). By Kheleyf out of a Hawk Wing mare, itís perhaps not completely surprising that he has not seemed totally straightforward to date, gelded after his debut (when well backed) and still a bit keen on his two subsequent starts, but he did show ability on those two latest efforts in class 4 maidens at Newbury; on his second start he wasnít far behind some useful performers, and he made a little late progress from a long way back on his latest start. Heís potentially very well drawn in stall 13 of 16, and this doesnít look a strong race, so a little improvement on his handicap debut should see him involved. 1pt win MISTER MAYDAY (9-1 Boylesports, 8-1 general)"


Notes:-
Both tips on day in 2yo races. This one seems flawed just on Trainer grounds. Never been convinced by him & record in last 1.5 seasons poor. No natural progression, talking up duff horses, 'punts' that mean nothing, etc. MMayday's STO run looks ok but didn't run anywhere near that level 3TO & in a weaker race. ][ Drift 9/2 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/08/2013 Swiss Spirit J. H. M. Gosden BuickW YORK 5 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"Looking at the Nunthorpe Stakes at York on Friday, I was quite taken by SWISS SPIRITís run at Goodwood last time, and with his price edging down in recent days and the forecast apparently set fair, it might be worth backing him now as his odds might be in single figures nearer to the day. He has had just four runs for John Gosden, and on both his second and latest starts for his current yard he shaped as if a big step forward would be on the cards at some stage; he looked very unlucky not to win the Temple Stakes on his second start for Gosden, squeezed out at the start and losing a lot of ground, then having to be switched to make his challenge in the final furlong, just failing. He ended up racing away from where the action unfolded when runner-up at Goodwood last time, but still produced two big surges in relation to those he was racing around, despite not keeping the straightest of courses. He needs a career-best if the likes of Shea Shea and Sole Power run to form, but he gives the impression he definitely has a major sprint in him if he puts it all together one day. 1pt win SWISS SPIRIT (10-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/08/2013 Goldream CowellRMH SpencerJP YORK 5.4 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"There is a ton of pace in the opening race, the extended 5f handicap (1.55), especially amongst those drawn low, and GOLDREAM might be able to bounce back to form with a few factors potentially in his favour. He shaped really well, in fact looked unlucky not to win, when runner-up in a 5f handicap at the May meeting here, travelling strongly behind a wall of horses a furlong out but having to wait for a run, then losing further momentum when switched, before finishing with a flourish in a race run in a very good time. He hasn't really gone on from that run, but horses who run well at York once often do so again, and he is fitted with cheekpieces for the first time, and Jamie Spencer looks the type of jockey who might suit him. He's potentially well handicapped here if he can put it all together. 1pt win GOLDREAM ( 10-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
Slow Start with SpencerJP. Mix of Pace & Closers at Finish. Spencer any issue? But HT wanting a hold up ride & pace. Fast going & Tailwind on day meant fast times and hard to run down Pace horses that didn't fold much ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/08/2013 Wyborne B Ellison SilvaRD3 YORK 16.4 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"WYBORNE has shaped with distinct promise on each of his two starts and he looks interesting in the 2m handicap at York today (4.20). An ex-Juddmonte/Andre Fabre horse, he's related some very smart stayers, including two horses placed in the Ascot Gold Cup (one of whom was his full brother Coastal Path), and he's still relatively unexposed and lightly raced. On his first try at this sort of trip for his current yard he made up a lot of ground to finish third from an impossible position at Newcastle (a track where it often seems tough to launch a challenge from a long way behind on the round course), and he again shaped better than the result last time over today's course and distance; held up in last place, he made up a lot of ground quickly between the 3f pole and the 1f marker, passing the eventual runner-up and third and almost getting upsides the eventual winner before those exertions appeared to take their toll, fading to finish fifth. The concern here is that there is a not a lot of guaranteed pace, but providing he isn't too inconvenienced by the tempo of the race he remains on a potentially fair mark. 1pt win WYBORNE ( 11-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
Drift 9/1 oc ][ Slow Start & Drop-in. Fin Last ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/08/2013 Smarty Socks D. O'Meara BuickW YORK 8 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"SMARTY SOCKS has been selected on a number of occasions in this column at York, but he remains a credit to his stable at the age of nine and keeps on giving his running at this track, and he makes each-way appeal despite the trip in todayís 1m handicap (3.05) representing the very outer limits of his stamina. His form figures at York over 1m or less away from soft ground read 131214122, and he remains very fairly handicapped, only 3lb higher than when just touched off over todayís course and distance in July and off the same mark as when pulling a long way clear along with the mercurial Sirius Prospect. Itís easy to draw a line through his latest effort at Doncaster, as his rider reported he boiled over before the start, and in any case a small field on a straight track would not be his ideal circumstances (also possibly raced away from the better ground). The big field and strong pace will be more to his liking here, and although heís probably better at 7f, he has twice gone very close over course and distance and must still have a good chance of at least making the frame once more at his favourite track. 1pt each-way SMARTY SOCKS (14-1 Ladbrokes, 12-1 general)"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 1pt EW = 2pts Bet ][ O'Meara won race with 25/1 Mont Ras with A5 on who made all. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/08/2013 Burren View Lady T. D. Easterby AllanD WTON 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"BURREN VIEW LADY shaped really well on her sole Polytrack start to date and can defy a high draw at Wolverhampton this evening (6.50). A visor had done nothing for her the first time it was applied on turf, but she looked a different proposition with the headgear retained over this course and distance two outings ago, doing really well to win going away having allowed runner-up Whiphound first run. Providing her jockey can get her into a decent position from her wide draw, Iíd expect to confirm form with the runner-up, and Burren View Lady could be the type to run up a sequence on this surface. 1pt win BURREN VIEW LADY (11-2 Betfred, BetVictor, Boylesports, William Hill)"


Notes:-
HT later than usual (10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
23/08/2013 Rio's Rosanna R. M. Whitaker KennemoreR YORK 12 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"The stars seem to have aligned for RIOíS ROSANNA in the 1m4f handicap (1.55). She has been gradually finding her form this season and after shaping well over todayís course and distance two outings ago, she gave the impression she was poised to strike at Pontefract last time (runs off same mark here); held up in a steadily-run affair, she produced a strong run in the final 2f to go down only narrowly, giving the impression she was in really good heart. She goes very well at this track, and didnít get any luck in this race last year when 5lb higher, badly hampered on a couple of occasions and finishing with plenty of running in her. The overnight rain is surely a boost to her chances Ė she was withdrawn from the Galtres Stakes on account of the quick ground yesterday (though that declaration may have been a precaution in case she didnít make the cut for todayís race), but she has plenty of form with give in the ground, including a wide-margin win over this course and distance on soft ground last year. Her small stable has been going well all year and she should run a big race here. 1pt win RIOíS ROSANNA (12-1 BetVictor, Boylesports, Coral, Skybet, Stan James)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
23/08/2013 Secret Art R. M. Beckett AtzeniA YORK 8 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"The 1m handicap at York today (4.55) has plenty of interesting horses, notably Short Squeeze and Hay Dude, who both won in impressive style last time. However, both have been well found in the market, and at a bigger price SECRET ART looks interesting. Although he won over 7f at Sandown four outings ago, that win came off a strong pace and he won going away, shaping as if a greater test of stamina would see him in an even better light. That suspicion appeared to be confirmed on his next two starts over a mile on quicker ground, appearing set to drop back through the field before staying on again at the finish on both occasions, shaping as if a stronger gallop and/or easier ground would suit. He again shaped as if in good form last time despite the drop to 7f and a steady pace surely not being ideal, and the return to a big-field scenario over a mile is likely to help; the ground shouldnít be a problem either, as it was on the easy side both for his win at Nottingham over the extended mile (when he had the race in the bag a long way out), and at Sandown, form which has worked out well. His wide draw might not be a disadvantage as the field may be swinging wide into the straight after the overnight rain. 1pt win SECRET ART (11-1 bet365, Coral, Skybet, Stan James)"


Notes:-
3yo Hcap, OR85 & 118lbs ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/08/2013 Tiger Cliff H. R. A. Cecil QueallyTP YORK 14 S

HT Selection Text:-

"With last nightís rain and more forecast tonight, it looks likely that tomorrowís Ebor will be run on ground that is on the soft side of good. The one that interests me most with the rain having come is TIGER CLIFF, who was scratched from the Northumberland Plate in June because of fears (which proved unfounded as it turned out) that the ground would prove too fast. Itís true that he finished only second off a much lower mark on his sole previous start on softish ground, but that was on his first-ever turf start, and in any case it was a very good effort given his inexperience to chase home a progressive John Gosden inmate, the pair pulling clear in a big field. Tiger Cliffís sire Tiger Hill has a much better overall record with his progeny when encountering give than on fast ground, and Tiger Cliff has looked most progressive in his two starts this year. His reappearance win at Newmarket came in one of the hottest staying handicaps of the year, and he ended up with too much to do in a steadily-run Ascot Stakes last time, making up a lot of ground from the rear. He remains lightly raced and unexposed after only six starts to date (three of which were on Polytrack), and he has more potential for improvement than most in this field. 1pt win TIGER CLIFF (9-1 BetVictor, 8-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/08/2013 Mister Impatience M. Johnston FanningJ YORK 14 S

HT Selection Text:-

"I've been waiting for MISTER IMPATIENCE to run again on very testing ground for some time, and it looks like he will get his chance in the Melrose Handicap at York today (2.40). He has already been well backed last night and this morning - some of the prices yesterday evening were remarkable given the forecast - but he still looks the most interesting runner in the race given the demolition jobs he inflicted on his rivals on the last two occasions he encountered really testing ground; in particular, he skipped through the ground when it was really testing at Doncaster on his 3yo reappearance, the finish bearing more relation to a soft-ground novice hurdle than a 1m2f handicap (had also bolted up on soft ground at Nottingham as a juvenile). He ran quite well in the Chester Vase when the ground wasn't quite so soft, and although his form has been up and down since, 1m6f on very testing ground should be right up his street; plenty of the 3yos here might not handle the ground, but he's likely to relish it. 1pt win MISTER IMPATIENCE ( 11-1 Paddy Power, 9-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/08/2013 Normal Equilibrium R. H. M. Cowell BishopC YORK 5 S

HT Selection Text:-

"Robert Cowell has already had a good week, going close with Goldream on Wednesday before Jwala won the Nunthorpe yesterday (Kingsgate Native also ran well), and his fortunes can improve further with NORMAL EQILIBRIUM in the 5f apprentice handicap that closes the card. He hasn't always enjoyed much luck in running this season, having to be switched at some stage on each of his last three starts, but the key to his chance could be the ground. He has only raced on testing ground once, and that run at Chester produced a career-best effort, winning cosily having travelled smoothly. He's only 4lb higher here, and this doesn't look a strong race for the grade. 1pt win NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM ( 8-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
Jk an App but no Claim in App rc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
02/09/2013 Ted's Brother R. C. Guest PrinceP5 HTON 8.3 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"TEDíS BROTHERís last two defeats are not hard to excuse and he should make a bold bid to make it three out of three over course and distance in the extended mile handicap at Hamilton today (2.40). He won here in May and again last month, and also proved his liking for a stiff finish when winning at Beverley in between. He was completely unsuited by the steady pace at Ayr two outings ago, seeing too much daylight and racing too keenly, but he shaped as if still in form at Newcastle last time; held up in a group of four that raced on the far side, he stayed on steadily, just failing to catch Andiamo Via, who was having his first run for Brian Ellison, with the in-form Strong Man back in third on that side (first five home raced centre to stands side). He shaped as if the return to this sort of trip would suit and he looks a leading player back at this venue. 1pt win TEDíS BROTHER (6-1 Boylesports, 11-2 bet365, Ladbrokes*)"


Notes:-
HT back from a Break ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/09/2013 Candoluminescence R. Charlton DoyleJ KTNA 12 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"CANDOLUMINESCENCE shaped well in what is likely to prove a strong handicap at Kempton last time, and sheís likely to go well in the 1m4f handicap at Lingfield tonight (7.20). That race wasnít run at a strong gallop but still produced a very fair final time, and in finishing second to two progressive types Candoluminescence probably produced a career-best effort. The form is already showing signs of working out (fifth-placed Straberry Jam won over course and distance next time out, and the fourth ran creditably on turf next time), and off the same mark as last time, Candoluminescence should prove hard to beat. 2pts win CANDOLUMINESCENCE (7-2 Coral, 3-1 bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes*)"


Notes:-
*** NOTE 2pts Win ][ Supp 9/4 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
04/09/2013 Tribal Path M. Johnston FanningJ LNGA 10 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Punters have had to wait patiently for TRIBAL PATH to reappear on Polytrack and thereís something of an element of risk in backing him at Lingfield today (4.50) given his two flops in April and subsequent lay-off, but such was the impression he created on his sole start on Polytrack heís probably still worth chancing. I made him one of my eyecatchers on the Form Factor after that Lingfield win, stating his opening mark looked very lenient given how well he put distance between himself and his rivals in a steadily-run affair that day (final 2f split compared very well with that of the 0-85 handicap for older horses run on the same card off similar fractions), and the runner-up and fourth both won on Polytrack next time (albeit over further). He showed nothing back on turf on his next two starts, and heís very much a boom-or-bust pick, as much a candidate for finishing last as first given the query over his current well-being, but if heís in the same form as on his sole previous start on this surface heíd take some beating off his current mark, and there looks still to be enough juice in his price for that to be a chance worth taking. 1pt win TRIBAL PATH (8-1 Boylesports, 7-1 bet365, BetVictor, Coral, Stan James, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
HT doesn't mention it but also UIT & FT at 10f after 8f prev. The CIR = Pressed leader after 2f, led narrowly 2f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong = Headed coming up to end of 9th furlong. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
04/09/2013 Ikhtisas S. B. Suroor SousaSD KTNA 12 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Kempton (8.30) IKHTISAS looks the interesting one. Itís often safer to side with horses with solid Polytrack form in these events, especially as there are several interesting such runners in this race, but there is definite evidence to suggest the selection might go well switched to this surface. His sire Street Sense is starting to develop a good record with his runners on this surface (9-23), and whilst the small sample size and the fact that two horses accounted for seven of those wins means those figures have to be taken with a little caution, Street Sense himself was a high-class performer on both dirt and Polytrack and Ikhtisas looks the type of keen-going animal who will take well to this surface (indeed, spoiled his chance by racing too keenly last time). His trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a terrific record in handicaps at this track; the stable has a lot of horses with US pedigrees and itís often a positive rather than a negative when one from this yard is tried here. 1pt win IKHTISAS (15-2 Betfred, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Supp 4/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/09/2013 Fazza E. W. Tuer MulrennanP HYDK 8 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"FAZZA has shaped as if back at the top of his game on his last two starts and although there is a concern about the ground, he still looks overpriced in the 1m handicap at Haydock today (2.30). He won off a mark of 75 in may 2012, but his stable then went through a very tough period, not having a winner between June 2012 and April this year. Fazzaís first three runs this year werenít very promising, but he bounced back at Pontefract two outings ago, doing really well to win from an unpromising position. He shaped as if still in good form at Thirsk last time; held up in last place, he started to make steady headway up the far rail from 3f out, but was repeatedly short of room, finishing with running in him and giving the impression he would have gone very close with a clear run. He runs off the same mark here and is very fairly handicapped on his best form (3lb lower than for last win), and although his chance would definitely be improved by easier ground, he still looks overpriced at double-figure odds. 1pt win FAZZA (14-1 bet365 possible Rule 4, 12-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
*** NOTE the Rule 4 note in Price Text. ][ 6yo on OR72 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/09/2013 Hail Promenader A. T. Carson CarsonW CHEP 8.1 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"As Iíve mentioned on numerous occasions previously, the straight track at Chepstow, with its marked undulations, is very much a venue for course specialists, and there are a couple of horses that are very well handicapped on their best form who go well here, so the suggestion is a couple of win singles and an each-way double. HAIL PROMENADER (2.50) returned to form at Brighton on Monday with blinkers fitted, and he ran really well on two of his three outings here (the third came on heavy ground), recording a good time figure on both occasions. He won over todayís course and distance off a mark of 63 in May 2012, and was second here, again over todayís trip of a mile, in May off a mark of 62 (winner and third both won next time). He runs off a mark of just 55, and providing the ground doesnít turn really testing he should go very well. 1pt win HAIL PROMENADER (9-2 bet365, Betfred, BetVictor, Coral, William Hill) + 1pt each-way double HAIL PROMENADER, EUROQUIP BOY"


Notes:-
***NOTE Two Win Bets on Day plus an EW double on both. See separate Placeholder Record for the EW Double ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/09/2013 Euroquip Boy ScudamoreMA BurnsI7 CHEP 6.1 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"EUROQUIP BOY (4.20) returned to form over this course and distance last time, really finding his stride in the final 100 yards and only just failing to catch Dancing Welcome, who reopposes but has to carry a 6lb penlty. Euroquip Boy had actually shaped as if in good form on his two previous outings here but patently failed to stay on each occasion, and he remains well handicapped on the pick of his previous form here, winning off 55 in 2011 having gone close off the same mark previously, but now running off 46. Like Hail Promenader he probably wouldnít want bottomless ground, but the current good to soft should be fine. 1pt win EUROQUIP BOY (5-1 bet365, Betfred, 9-2 Coral, William Hill) + 1pt each-way double HAIL PROMENADER, EUROQUIP BOY"


Notes:-
***NOTE Two Win Bets on Day plus an EW double on both. See separate Placeholder Record for the EW Double ][ Drift 7/2 oc ][ Won by ShHd & Ns in 3 way Photo ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/09/2013 Euro Boy/Hail Prom CHEP GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"As Iíve mentioned on numerous occasions previously, the straight track at Chepstow, with its marked undulations, is very much a venue for course specialists, and there are a couple of horses that are very well handicapped on their best form who go well here, so the suggestion is a couple of win singles and an each-way double. HAIL PROMENADER (2.50) returned to form at Brighton on Monday with blinkers fitted, and he ran really well on two of his three outings here (the third came on heavy ground), recording a good time figure on both occasions. He won over todayís course and distance off a mark of 63 in May 2012, and was second here, again over todayís trip of a mile, in May off a mark of 62 (winner and third both won next time). He runs off a mark of just 55, and providing the ground doesnít turn really testing he should go very well. 1pt win HAIL PROMENADER (9-2 bet365, Betfred, BetVictor, Coral, William Hill) + 1pt each-way double HAIL PROMENADER, EUROQUIP BOY EUROQUIP BOY (4.20) returned to form over this course and distance last time, really finding his stride in the final 100 yards and only just failing to catch Dancing Welcome, who reopposes but has to carry a 6lb penlty. Euroquip Boy had actually shaped as if in good form on his two previous outings here but patently failed to stay on each occasion, and he remains well handicapped on the pick of his previous form here, winning off 55 in 2011 having gone close off the same mark previously, but now running off 46. Like Hail Promenader he probably wouldnít want bottomless ground, but the current good to soft should be fine. 1pt win EUROQUIP BOY (5-1 bet365, Betfred, 9-2 Coral, William Hill) + 1pt each-way double HAIL PROMENADER, EUROQUIP BOY"


Notes:-
*** Placeholder Record to Hold Result of the EW Double on the above two Selections also put up as win Singles. See related Records. ][ **NOTE 1pt EW bet so this is a 2pt Selection ][ Results were 3rd at 7/2 & Win at 9/2, Win part of Double lost = -1.0 pts. Place part of Double wins with 1/5 odds at 5/1 & 9/2 = +3.80 pts = Overall is +2.80 pts



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/09/2013 Simple Magic J. H. M. Gosden HavlinR KTNA 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"There's high-class racing all over the place today, including at Kempton, and in the Group Three Sirenia Stakes (4.10) SIMPLE MAGIC can confirm the abundant promise of her Wolverhampton win. She had shown plenty of promise in her first two starts on turf, but could hardly have been more impressive upped in trip on her Polytrack debut. Soon in front, she stretched right away from her rivals under a hand ride in the straight despite appearing to jump a mark on the track a furlong out. She never came under pressure and was eased a shade close to the line, yet the winning time was the second-fastest ever recorded by a 2yo over course and distance (from 253 races, the fastest being recorded by subsequent Group Two winner Prime Defender), and whilst the track was riding quick, it was still a very smart effort on the clock by a filly this early in her 2yo career. This is obviously a stiff test, up in grade against the colts, but she's well worth her chance and she is clearly very well suited by the surface. 1pt win SIMPLE MAGIC ( 8-1 Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/09/2013 Top Notch Tonto B Ellison SwiftD HYDK 8.2 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"Although the predicted deluge hasn't arrived, the ground at Haydock is presumably still likely to have a fair amount of give in it, and if that's the case I think TOP NOTCH TONTO might have a better chance in the 1m Group Three event (2.40) than official ratings suggest. He is one of several horses that have already improved significantly since joining Brian Ellison from Ian McInnes, but his best from for his previous yard was on softish ground - he shaped very well in a Listed race on his final 2yo start when third behind Willie The Whipper, who was runner-up in a Group One event on similar ground next time, and although he is clearly better than ever since joining Ellison, there might be more to come for his new yard as his first two runs came on ground that hitherto would have looked unsuitably quick. He obviously needs a career-best to take this, but providing there remains plenty of give in the ground it wouldn't surprise me if he ran a lot better than his odds suggest. 1pt each way TOP NOTCH TONTO ( 33-1 Bet365, Coral - 1/4 odds *BOG)"


Notes:-
***NOTE 1pts ew so a 2pts Selection ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/09/2013 Opera Buff S. Curran KeniryLP KTNA 11 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 1m3f handicap at Kempton (3.35) there are a few likely-looking types from powerful yards amongst the market leaders, but at bigger odds OPERA BUFF makes some each-way appeal, as although he's a maiden, he's been crying out for a return to a longer trip and/or a galloping track. He never landed a blow when well backed over Lingfield's 1m2f four days ago, making a little late progress, and he's best judged on his run over 1m4f here; that was a steadily-run affair, and on the face of it he was at an advantage in racing prominently, but he was actually one of the first off the bridle, before finding plenty as his stamina started to kick in and pulling away with the unexposed David Lanigan-trained favourite Duke's Delight. The latter would be amongst the favourites if he were running in this race so with the long straight here again likely to play to his strengths, Opera Buff looks overpriced each-way at double-figure odds. 1pt each way OPERA BUFF ( 14-1 William Hill, 12-1 Betvictor, Paddy Power, Stan James *BOG)"


Notes:-
***NOTE 1pts ew so a 2pts Selection ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/09/2013 Lancelot Du Lac D. K. Ivory CrowleyJ YORK 6 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"LANCELOT DU LAC was a revelation dropped to sprint distances for the first time at Newmarket on his latest start and he can confirm that impression in the 6f handicap at York today (4.40). He had been shaping as if worth a try over 6f for a while, often travelling better than most of his rivals over 7f, and he always looked to have matters in control at Newmarket despite the fairly narrow margin. The time of that race was 0.3 seconds faster than that recorded by his classy stable mate Tropics in the Listed Hopeful Stakes on the same card, and although that owes plenty to the fact that the latter race was run at a steady pace, Lancelot Du Lac's time still stacks up well. Dean Ivory's sprinters have tended to progress very quickly once they find their form in recent years, with Tropics winning four of his last six, Sirius Prospect winning five from six and Links Drive Lady four from five when hitting form, and Lancelot Du Lac ran very well on both previous starts here (albeit over 7f on the round course) - indeed, Ivory's last four runners here all won. 1pt win LANCELOT DU LAC (13-2 Stan James, 6-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/09/2013 Super Say M. Appleby MullenA YORK 10.4 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"n the 1m2f handicap (3.35) Morocco is a worthy favourite, but at a much bigger price I think SUPER SAY is interesting too. He won in good style on what was just his third start for Michael Appleby last time (possible excuses first two starts), and a 4lb rise still leaves him with plenty of scope in terms of handicapping - he won a valuable big-field handicap off a mark of 91 in Ireland a couple of years ago, and was beaten less than a length in a Polytrack Listed race that year. Any further drying of the ground will be in his favour, and there could be more to come now he has found his form for his current yard. 1pt win SUPER SAY (20-1 Stan James, William Hill *BOG, 18-1 Betvictor *BOG)"


Notes:-
Worth noting Morocco is O'MearaD trained so one of his fav trnrs going up against another ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/09/2013 Katmai River M. D. I. Usher MuscuttM BTON 8 S

HT Selection Text:-

"It's difficult to find much to enthuse over today, but for those looking for a bet a case can be made for KATMAI RIVER in the closing apprentice event at Brighton (5.30). He's clearly exposed as moderate and on a long losing run, but his last two wins came at this track last year on softish ground, and he'd be well handicapped if the return to this venue prompted a return to something like his best. The two wins came off marks of 59 and 65, but he runs off 46 here, and although both victories came over 7f, he was strong at the finish and has shaped as if a mile should be within his scope (did his best work in the final furlong at Chepstow last time, having shaped quite well at Leicester three outings ago). He has one of the more experienced riders on board and his stable has had a 7-1 winner and runners-up at 20-1 and 10-1 from its last six runners. 1pt win KATMAI RIVER (10-1 Stan James, William Hill, Paddy Power, Bet365, Betfred *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/09/2013 Baltic Fire E. M. Burke HaynesJ5 BVLY 8.5 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"BALTIC FIRE looks overpriced in the extended 1m nursery at Beverley this evening (6.40). On his latest run over 7f100y at this track, he finished half a length behind Ocean Storm, who reopposes on 1lb worse terms, but on that occasion Ocean Storm was drawn in stall 1 and hugged the inside rail throughout, whereas Baltic Fire, from stall 8, was always one off the rail. Today, Baltic Fire is drawn in stall 2 whereas Ocean Storm is in stall six, and thereís a chance that their respective draws will favour Baltic Fire this time. Moreover, the step up in trip seems likely to suit Baltic Fire; his half-brother Red Tyke won over 1m3f+ twice (also a winning hurdler), and his damís sole hurdles win came over 2m6f. He has shaped like a stayer on more than one occasion, notably when really catching the eye over 7f at Catterick three outings ago, and he looks to have plenty in his favour here. 2pts win BALTIC FIRE (10-1 bet365, 9-1 general)"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 2pts Bet. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/09/2013 Beach Bar W. J. Knight CrowleyJ LEIC 7 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"BEACH BAR took a while to come to grips with racing at Goodwood on his debut, but there were signs of ability by the end of the race and he might be able to go well at big odds in the opening maiden at Leicester today (2.20). Horses that were held up in that Goodwood maiden seemed to struggle, with two or three of those runners showing much-improved form next time, and although Beach Bar was nowhere near as eyecatching as the likes of Golden Town and Gamesome (who both raced wide), he was making steady progress towards the end of the race. His trainerís record with first-time-out 2yos is 4-104 compared with 11-73 second time out (with an actual/expected second time out of 1.27). Itís interesting to see him fitted with a hood this time (wasnít noticeably keen at Goodwood), and a low draw isnít always ideal here, but he might be able to produce enough improvement to get involved in the finish. 1pt each-way BEACH BAR (20-1 general)"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 1pt EW = 2pts Bet ][ Beach Bar sugject of a SEnq into why he was Tenderly Ridden in the last 1f. Jk & Trnr wriggled away and explanations 'Noted' but not forwarded to the BHA. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/09/2013 Fair Ranger R. Hannon HughesJ DONC 7 G

HT Selection Text:-

"FAIR RANGER looks sure to be suited by the return to 7f and should go well in the opener at Doncasterís St Leger meeting today (2.00). He was off the bridle a long way out before staying on well when winning over 6f here in June, and although he won on his only outing to date over 7f at Warwick, he set a fairly moderate pace and looked like being beaten (traded at 20 in running) before his stamina kicked in and he won going away; the 2nd and third have both franked that form since. The lure of big prize money tempted connections to run him in a valuable Sales event over 6f at the Ebor meeting, but he was patently unsuited by the drop in trip, badly outpaced for much of the race before making good late headway, unable to land a blow. Itís a concern that Richard Hughes had originally been declared to ride his stable mate (now a non-runner), but I doubt Fair Ranger shows a lot at home judged on his racecourse performances. Heís potentially well drawn in stall 12 and this race doesnít look to have much strength in depth. 1pt win FAIR RANGER (5-1 Boylesports, BetVictor, Coral*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/09/2013 Even Stevens S. P. J. Dixon QueallyTP DONC 5 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 5f handicap (5.15) EVEN STEVENS can make a bold bid to repeat his win in this race last year. Heíll always be best-know as one of the best 5f Fibresand horses of recent seasons, but he has a good record here too, and he was well on top at the line in last yearís renewal; that came on a day when the ground had eased during racing, and those conditions might prevail again today looking at the forecast. Even Stevens has one or two other good efforts here, too; he had the likes of Jack Dexter, York Glory and Doc Hay behind him when mid-division in a 6f Listed race here last backend, when he was still disputing third place at the furlong pole before finding his stamina stretched, and he was a close second over todayís course and distance on heavy ground in April 2012. He shaped quite well on his return from a six-month absence at Chester last time, and he will be fresher than most of his rivals here. 1pt win EVEN STEVENS (16-1 Betfred, Boylesports, Coral, Totesport, Stan James)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/09/2013 Wadaa J. J. S. Tate HanaganP DONC 14.6 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"The Park Hill Stakes (3.15 Doncaster) features a few fillies that are unproven on either the ground or trip (or both), and in a race where there might be the chance for a big run from an outsider, WADAA makes each-way appeal. The bare level of her form falls some way short of what is required, but she seems to be going the right way, settling better than had previously been the case on her last two starts. She broke her duck in an ordinary class 4 handicap at Carlisle two outings ago on the softest surface she has encountered to date, doing well to win going away having been short of room and shuffled back on the home turn, and she confirmed that stamina is her strong suit when a very good second to Cosimo De Medici at Southwell last time; the winner is one of the best middle-distance/staying horses seen on Fibresand in recent years, the time was good and there were plenty of horses with strong Southwell form strung out a long way behind the first two home. Wadaa shows plenty of knee action and it seems likely she will always be seen to best effect on ground softer than good on turf, and she might be able to belie her odds and official rating here. 1pt each-way WADAA (33-1 bet365, Boylesports, Stan James - all paying quarter odds, 33-1 general paying fifth odds)"


Notes:-
*** NOTE = 1pt EW so a 2pt Bet ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/09/2013 Regardez R. M. Beckett CrowleyJ CHEP 7.1 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"Away from Doncaster, REGARDEZ looks one of the most interesting bets of the day in the 7f filliesí maiden at Chepstow (1.55). She was a big eyecatcher in a warm maiden at Goodwood on her debut; badly drawn, she was held up and forced very wide on the home turn, but still managed to make quite a big move between the 3f and 2f pole before fading under a considerate ride. The disadvantage faced by hold-up horses in steadily-run races over this course and distance are highlighted by the fact that Radiator, who finished a never-nearer fifth having had a much better trip than Regardez, bolted up at Lingfield next time, one of four next-time-out winners already produced by the Goodwood race. Jim Crowley goes to Chepstow to ride her (though Ralph Beckett has no runners at Doncaster today), and Regardez, who comes from a family that Beckett knows well, can improve enough to land this maiden. 1pt win REGARDEZ (7-2 BetVictor, 100-30 Boylesports, Stan James, 3-1 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/09/2013 Stellar Express M. Appleby MullenA DONC 10.3 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"Today's card at Doncaster looks tricky, but I think there's an interesting runner in the 1m2f classified stakes (5.00). STELLAR EXPRESS faces some unexposed rivals, but she's relatively unexposed at today's trip and the form of her latest run at Nottingham looks really strong. She tried to make all that day and found plenty under pressure, pulling clear but just unable to cope with Elhaame and Missed Call. She was trying to give those progressive 3yos 9lb and 12lb respectively, and time has already started to show how difficult a task that was; Elhaame won easily off a 4lb higher mark next time and shaped extremely well when runner-up in a hugely valuable handicap off a mark of 94 last time, and could easily develop into a Pattern performer next season, whilst Missed Call was the only one to give Odeliz a race at Nottingham next time, the pair well clear, and that form was made to look stronger still by Odeliz's Listed win in France next time. It's a slight concern that Stellar Express has run some of her best races at Nottingham, whilst she might be taken on up front by impressive Ripon winner Zain Eagle (though the latter is up significantly in trip and might be ridden with more restraint here). Stellar Express hasn't run for six weeks, but she might have been saved for this race as conditions are ideal; it's a 0-85 classified event, and she is rated at the ceiling-level 85 and also gets the 3lb fillies' allowance that, somewhat bizarrely, still applies to these races. 1pt win STELLAR EXPRESS (13-2 Bet Victor*, Stan James*, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
CIR = Led, ridden and headed inside final 2f, chased leaders, weakened over 1f out ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/09/2013 Brynford C. A. Dywer TartR3 WTON 6 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"At Wolverhampton (6.00) there are several reasons to think BRYNFORD should run well. Her recent efforts on Polytrack stack up well on the clock compared to those of her rivals that have raced on the surface, but there is reason to believe she hasn't been seen to best advantage either. She actually recorded a very respectable time despite finishing 7 lengths behind Marmalady last time, which shows how well in the winner was (at least a stone and probably more), and she shaped well too, dropped in to last place from her wide draw and doing well to pass every rival bar the runaway winner in the final 2f given the gallop was only an average one. That was the third race in a row that she had been badly drawn, having shaped well despite being forced wide on her two previous starts, but she has had better luck in stall four here. She's up in grade here and would be vulnerable to an improver, but she sets a fair standard here. 1pt win BRYNFORD (6-1 Bet Victor*, Coral*, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/09/2013 Ajjaadd PowellTE StottK7 DONC 5.5 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"AJJAADD is in the form of his life at the age of seven and he can prove the point by winning the Portland Handicap at Doncaster today for his small stable. He produced a career-best effort last time when runner-up in the Stewards' Cup, travelling strongly for a long way, and he is able to run off the same mark here, whilst he is partnered by a 7lb claimer who has been creating a good impression lately, especially in sprints (11 of his 15 winners to date have come over 6f or less). He has won three times on soft ground and shaped very well when fifth over 5f here last year behind Jack Dexter, Jamaican Bolt, Mass Rally and York Glory, form which looks very strong now. The other one I was considering in this race is Prodigality, who will appreciate the give in the ground and ran well in this race last year, but I'm not sure his draw is a help. 1pt win AJJAADD (14-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
7yo off OR98. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/09/2013 Jive R. Hannon DobbsJ KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Away from Doncaster, I think JIVE is overpriced in the 1m nursery at Kempton (7.30). She has been weak in the market this morning as the money has come for her stable mate Morally Bankrupt, who will be ridden by Richard Hughes (latest win came in a modest claimer, though did shape as if the step up to a mile would suit). However, Jive is starting to look like a Polytrack specialist; she hadn't shown much prior to winning her maiden over 6f at Lingfield in good style, and she then shaped very well stepped up to 7f there last time, pulling clear with the winner. The time is hard to assess (the other two races run on Polytrack that evening were both steadily run) but for the time being I'm taking a positive view of it, especially as two or three of those in behind have run well on the same surface since, and although Jive would be vulnerable to an improver, she looks overpriced this morning. 1pt win JIVE (9-1 Ladbrokes, Stan James, 8-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/09/2013 Astra Hall R. M. Beckett CrowleyJ FFOS 12 HV

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 1m4f 3yo handicap at Ffos Las (4.35) ASTRA HALL should have her ideal conditions, with rain forecast on what is already good to soft ground. She is somewhat unlucky not to be unbeaten in three starts at this course, winning twice and being repeatedly hampered when looking likely to score here last year. She probably found the track unsuitable last time, and it may be a coincidence but her form figures to date going left-handed (91132141) read much better than right-handed (7868, beaten an average of around 16 lengths). This is by some way her toughest assignment to date, but she thrives in the mud and at this track and might be able to resume her progress with conditions likely to be ideal."


Notes:-
Astra Hall ran 2 days later on HV at CHEP (having been an NR here because of easing Ground!) and 2nd as 9/4jf ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/09/2013 Candyman Can D. J. S. Ffrench-Davis BoudainsJ7 FFOS 12 HV

HT Selection Text:-

"CANDYMAN CAN wasn't the first horse and won't be the last to fail to handle Epsom's cambers last time, but he had shaped really well on his reappearance at Ffos Las in the mud and he can bounce back with circumstances likely to be similar there today (5.05). He had been off since catching the eye at Lingfield back in January, but travelled strongly on that reappearance outing and went down only narrowly to a race-fit horse that had been beaten just a nose on similar ground on his previous start. The third home won under similar conditions the next day, and Candyman Can would probably be favourite here if it weren't for that next run at Epsom, where he saw plenty of daylight out wide before apparently failing to deal with the contours in the straight. Back at a more conventional track, he can return to form and hopefully get off the mark, with further rain unlikely to be a problem judged on his previous effort here. 1pt win CANDYMAN CAN (8-1 William Hill, Bet365, 7-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/09/2013 High On A Hill JardineI AllanD EDIN 12 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"HIGH ON A HILL returned to form with headgear applied last time, but didnít get home over 2m, and he can take advantage of a favourable mark at Musselburgh now he reverts to 1m4f (5.10). He had shown nothing in three previous starts for his current stable (plus a novice hurdle), but he dropped 15lb in the process, and he looked like winning for a long way at Newcastle, around three lengths clear for much of the straight before fading in the final furlong. The big question is whether headgear will work for the second time, and itís a bit of a concern that the visor is replaced by cheekpieces, but heís so well handicapped it looks a chance worth taking. 1pt win HIGH ON A HILL (9-1 Ladbrokes, William Hill)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/09/2013 Quantum Dot T. G. Dascombe KingscoeR WTON 5.1 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Wolverhampton (5.00) QUANTUM DOT might be the interesting one. His only run to date came at Chester in June, and there can be few tougher places for a 2yo to race on debut, but he shaped with a little promise despite obvious signs of greenness. That form hasnít worked out badly (the other five horses in the first six home are all rated at least 75, with the winner on 95), and the switch to Polytrack might well suit given the excellent record on the surface of Quantum Dotís sire Exceed And Excel. Tom Dascombe brought Andy Dandy, another once-raced two-year-old, here last month to win a maiden after an absence (well backed), and it might be a similar story here with Quantum Dot. 1pt win QUANTUM DOT (4-1 BetVictor, Coral, Stan James*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/09/2013 Sukari Gold K. A. Ryan CallanN THSK 7 S

HT Selection Text:-

"SUKARI GOLD shaped well in first-time blinkers at Leicester last time and a repetition of that effort would see her go close in the selling nursery at Thirsk today (2.40). She hadnít built on a good second effort in two subsequent starts, but was a different proposition equipped with headgear at Leicester; she travelled strongly in the group that raced centre to stands side, clearly going best in that group from 3f out, but the finish was dominated by two horses from the farside group, and although those that finished well held from the centre group are all probably very moderate, thereís a suspicion the far-side horses might have found the better ground (the final race at the previous meeting had thrown up a similar scenario, a group that edged over to the far rail dominating the centre group). Sukari Gold has to repeat that effort with blinkers fitted for the second time, but she is better drawn than most of her market rivals and could prove hard to peg back if going with the same zest as at Leicester. 1pt win SUKARI GOLD (5-1 bet365, BetVictor, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
Drift 3/1 oc ][ Beaten by Casper Lee who was a long way behind SGold LTO at LEIC ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/09/2013 Takeitfromalady L. A. Carter GannonC CHEP 12.1 HV

HT Selection Text:-

"Thereís plenty of rain forecast at Chepstow this afternoon and there must be every chance the ground will turn testing. I still think Astra Hall is interesting in the 1m4f handicap (selected in this column on Sunday when soft ground was always going to be on the cards at Ffos Las, but officially withdrawn on account of the ground), but sheís a much shorter price this morning, and in a race where there are two or three mudlarks, Iím inclined to go with one at a bigger price, and Astra Hallís former stable mate TAKEITFROMALADY (4.50) fits the bill. Her three wins to date came on the softest ground she has encountered, and although they all came at around a mile, they came as a 2yo or at the start of her 3yo career and itís likely she needs this sort of trip nowadays (saw out a strongly-run 1m3f well at Kempton two outings ago). She has shaped as if in form on Polytrack recently, never landing a blow in a steadily-run race on her latest start, James Doyle looks a positive booking, and she is below her last wining mark."


Notes:-
3rd of 8 beaten 8.25L on a Day when most races had extended distances at finish. Rain through the meeting with ground gong from GS-S-HV ][ Astra Hall 2nd as 9/4jf ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/09/2013 Solemn J. M. Bradley KirbyA SDWN 5 SHV

HT Selection Text:-

"SOLEMN looks set to encounter the same conditions as for his standout performance over the last couple of years, has been given a real chance by the handicapper, and it looks worth chancing that lightning can strike twice at Sandown this afternoon (2.20). His win over this course and distance in June last year came on probably the softest ground he has ever raced on, and he demolished the opposition, admittedly having very much the run of the race, allowed to make his way across to the favoured far rail and not taken on up front, but he won what had appeared an open sprint handicap by an eased-down six lengths. He didnít hold his form for long after that run, and has managed only three runs this season, but he didnít shape badly on Polytrack last time on his return from an 11-week break, and having been rated 90 just over a year ago he is now running off a mark of just 73. Itís unlikely heíll get such a smooth passage to the rail this time, and he wouldnít be the most consistent, but heís 10lb lower than for that wide-margin romp on what is likely to be similar ground, and Adam Kirby is on board again. 1pt win SOLEMN (8-1 Boylesports, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes)"


Notes:-
8yo off OR73 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/09/2013 Penitent D. O'Meara TudhopeD SDWN 8.1 HVS

HT Selection Text:-

"Solemnís much more talented half-brother PENITENT runs in the feature 1m Listed race (3.55) and although heís a shortish price by the usual standards of this column he does look to represent very good value - Iím somewhat surprised he isnít clear favourite. His main market rival Wentworth is a most progressive colt and well up to Listed standard at least, but he is unproven on very testing ground, at least on the racecourse. Penitent, on the other hand, has shown on several occasions that he positively relishes the mud, winning a Group Two event over this course and distance last year and later finishing an excellent second to Gordon Lord Byron in the Group One Prix de la Foret. His easy Lincoln win also came on very testing ground, heís 2-2 at Sandown, and heís unpenalised on this drop to Listed company after 16 consecutive runs in Group races, and he might be able to boss this from the front. 1pt win PENITENT (2-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
Drift 7/4 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/09/2013 Cosseted J. R. Fanshawe KellySW SDWN 8.1 HVS

HT Selection Text:-

"COSSETED has been making steady progress in her career to date, but thereís reason to believe soft ground could be the making of her and she looks the one to be on in an interesting 1m filliesí handicap (Sandown 4.30). She shaped well on her second start on good to soft going at Nottingham, finishing with a flourish after meeting some trouble, and she has continued to progress despite meeting quicker ground on her last two starts, one of my eyecatchers when a staying-on third at Doncaster two outings ago, then beating Mahican (won next two starts) at Pontefract last time despite not being helped by a steady gallop (time to 2f pole was almost four seconds slower than that in the preceding 1m handicap). Cosseted is from a family that trainer James Fanshawe knows very well (trained her dam Fondled, granddam Embraced and the latterís half-brother, the top miler Cesare); most of the family went very well on a soft surface, and Cosseted, a daughter of Pivotal, promises to do the same, and she shaped like she needs a proper test over a mile (has given the impression she will stay further). She was a non-runner at Ascot earlier this month when the rain failed to arrive and her connectionsí patience can be rewarded here. 1pt win COSSETED (7-2 Betfred, 100-30 Coral, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James)"


Notes:-
3yo off OR74 and unraced 2yo like the majority of the field. Won Mdn 4TO ][ 7/2f. Race Split FrSd & StdsSd str with winner FrSd & Cosseted 1st home StdsSd ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/09/2013 Delores Rocket K. A. Ryan GraySA5 AYR 7.2 S

HT Selection Text:-

"We saw with Penitent at Sandown yesterday that it can be dangerous to dismiss horses as being out of form when they simply havenít had their favoured ground lately, and with lots of rain having fallen at Ayr DELORES ROCKET (3.10) might be able to return to form. She improved suddenly at the end of last season when encountering testing ground and fitted with blinkers, winning at Catterick, Pontefract and Ayr, all over 6f. She started the season rated 83, but hasnít raced on ground softer than good yet this season according to Timeformís going assessments. As a result she has now dropped to a mark of 68, 11lb lower than her last winning mark, and she has a useful 5lb claimer on board here. She shaped as if returning to form when 4th over 6f at Pontefract, staying on again at the finish, and although she did her winning over 6f as a 2yo, she shapes as if this sort of trip should suit now. 1pt win DELORES ROCKET (15-2 bet365, 7-1 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
Something doesn't feel right with HT's first Sentence. Comparing a small filly who lacked scope at 2yo but managed to win soft (in quality as well as going) Nurseries to get an inflated OR83 with a proven High Class Older Horse like Penitent feels WRONG. Since she had little scope and never was an OR83 phys type how does he know OR68 is ok? The trnr doesn't think it's a Gimme so has an App Jk on. There has to be different 'Types' within a 'Soft Ground Horse getting its Ground' & not the OSFA approach here. ][ Drift 15/2 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/09/2013 Layline G. A. Kelleway MuscuttD5 AYR 13.1 S

HT Selection Text:-

"LAYLINE could be named the winner some way out at Ffos Las on Sunday, and although his big weight and quick turnaround are a bit of a concern, he still looks fairly handicapped under a 6lb penalty in the 1m5f handicap (5.10). He was on the bridle for most of the race on Sunday, and his winning time was around 1.4 seconds faster than that recorded half an hour earlier over the same course and distance in the class 3 0-95 event won by Miss Cap Estel, who carried less weight in a race run at a stronger earlier gallop (albeit winner was eased down and none of the other runners appeared to give their running). Layline isnít the most consistent and he has another furlong to contend with today, but he has won on heavy ground in the past and if heís in the same mood today he could take some stopping again. 1pt win LAYLINE (7-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/09/2013 Mr Red Clubs M. Appleby AtkinsonT WTON 7.1 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"With varying degrees of softish ground around at todayís turf meetings, this eveningís decent all-weather card at Wolverhampton might provide the best betting opportunities, and MR RED CLUBS can take advantage of a very favourable mark in the second division of the 7f 0-85 handicap (7.40). He hasnít been with Michael Appleby for long, but shaped as if in good form on his only start for his new yard to date at Chester last Saturday, a bit sluggish during the early stages but travelling quite well at the back of the field before finding a wall of horses in front of him on the home turn, no chance from his position but staying on steadily when finally getting in the clear. He has found winning easier on Polytrack than turf (five wins from 11 starts on this surface, 0-14 on turf), but heís well handicapped on his best from under both codes, and having contested class 2 and class 3 events off marks around 90 earlier this year, heís able to race off 77 here. Heíll need a good ride from his 5lb claimer from stall 9, but heís potentially so well handicapped for a yard that does really well with new acquisitions that he has to be of interest. 1pt win MR RED CLUBS (11-2 Betfred, Coral, Paddy Power, William Hill)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/09/2013 More Aspen M. Botti KirbyA WTON 7.1 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"In the opening 7f nursery at Wolverhampton (5.40), MORE ASPEN looks overpriced. She showed probably her best form on her debut at Kempton, staying on strongly from the back of the field in a race that hadnít been run at a frantic gallop, though the merit of that run was partly disguised visually by the fact that the winner was extremely impressive. She hasnít built on that effort in two starts on turf, but might turn out to be better suited by Polytrack, and Adam Kirby has a very good record for Marco Botti at this track (24-66, strike rate of over 36% and a small level stakes profit, and 12-34 in handicaps for a similar strike rate). She again has a difficult draw to overcome, but she still looks interesting back on this surface with the step up in trip likely to suit. 1pt win MORE ASPEN (10-1 general)"


Notes:-
A recurrent point but for eg, isn't bringing in a Long Term Stat like Botti & Kirby SR suspect for an individual bet? The SR is above average but still close to 2 losing Bets out of 3. Which means you need to back them all (?) to find the positive outcome? Bringing it in to support an individual bet should mean you have some knowledge which says this is v likely to be in the winning 33%. If you try to turn it round and say this individ bet is good but for reasons not related to the TJ combo then the Logic is flawed, surely? ][ Supp 13/2 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/09/2013 Shenval N. Quinlan KirbyA WTON 7.1 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"In the 7f 3yo handicap at Wolverhampton (8.10) SHENVAL might be the interesting one. He showed definite signs of ability on this surface on his first two starts; bang there at the 2f pole having travelled with zest on each occasion before fading. He again travelled well for a long way on his third start at Nottingham following a break, not at all knocked about. He wasnít given a mark after that run, and although his fourth start in maiden company, again at Nottingham, wasnít so eyecatching, that race is starting to work out very well. Shenval goes handicapping off a lowly mark and might be able to start fulfilling the promise of his two Polytrack runs here, whilst he again has a positive jockey booking. 1pt win SHENVAL (7-1 Betfred, BetVictor, 13-2 Stan James, William Hill)"


Notes:-
Update = Still hadn't run again by Jan 13th, 2014 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/09/2013 Two Smart E. M. Burke KingscoteR NMKT 6 G

HT Selection Text:-

"The 6f Tattersalls Millions Fillies' Sales race at Newmarket (2.30) is in its fourth year, but hasn't always been as competitive as the huge prize money might suggest. The 2010 winner Wahylah had finished unplaced on her two previous runs, beat two 75-rated horses to win the big pot, and failed to win again in 13 subsequent starts, her official rating never rising above 82, whilst in a small field last year horses rated 76 and 69 were able to finish third and fourth. This year's renewal looks to have a bit more depth, but apart from favourite Wedding Ring none of the field have really run much above the 80 level again (2nd favourite Aqlaam Vision won a nursery off 75 last time and isn't sure to be suited by the step down in trip). The race looks ripe for a big improver to at least make the frame, and TWO SMART might be worth chancing each way. She was well backed on her debut at Yarmouth recently, but was too keen, and after travelling as well as any could stay on only at one pace in the final 2f. She'll know more today, and if she settles she could find enough improvement to bely her odds; it's interesting that of the four 2yos from the yard that started at 7-2 or less on debut this season, the other three all won, suggesting that the market is not usually far off with the stable's 2yo debutant(e)s. 1pt each way TWO SMART (33-1 William Hill, 28-1 Bet365, Paddy Power *BOG)"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 1pt EW = 2pts Bet ][ Supp 12/1 oc ][ Wedding Ring won. Two Smart ran once more in the even more valuable Tatts fillies' Sales Race in October and well beaten again behind Wedding Ring. Two Smart has a best TS of 60 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/09/2013 Meshardal R. Carr McDonaldP CATT 7 G

HT Selection Text:-

"At Catterick (6.10) it might be worth chancing MESHARDAL at a big price after he shaped better than the bare result at Leicester last time. That race, the last on the card, saw a group of four or five horses edge across to the far rail, gradually pulling clear of those horses that raced in the centre (who included Meshardal) in the closing stages. That may have been a coincidence, but there was a similar occurrence in another race on the straight course at the next meeting, and in beating the four remaining horses that stayed towards the centre of the track with a bit to spare, Meshardal might have achieved a bit more than appears to be the case at first glance. The return to 7f will suit, as will the slightly easier ground (best effort came on sole start on a softish surface), and he has had only two starts for Ruth Carr, having gone with plenty of zest on his debut for the stable at thirsk before fading as if the run were needed. He looks the stable second string on paper behind frontrunner Dhhamaan, but might have a better chance than his current odds suggest. 1pt win MESHARDAL (22-1 Bet365, Betvictor *BOG, 20-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/09/2013 Getabuzz T. D. Easterby AllanD HTON 13 GS

HT Selection Text:-

"GETABUZZ should go well in the 1m5f handicap at Hamilton today (4.50) as he has run well all three starts at the track, has shaped as if in reasonable form on his last two starts and has dropped to a handy mark. He was an impressive winner on his first Hamilton start in 2011 and was runner-up in this race two years ago off a mark of 78, 3lb higher than his current one. He again shaped well on his seasonal debut in 2012 when runner-up over today's course and distance, again off a mark of 78. His form has been a bit up and down this season but he ran creditably at Epsom two outings ago despite the distance beaten, probably not helped by drifting towards the far rail on a day when the centre of the track appeared the place to be, and he appeared not to get home in a competitive handicap at York last time, travelling well towards the rear and making smooth headway 3f out but only able to keep going at the one pace. Off his lowest mark for a couple of years, he should be thereabouts. 1pt win GETABUZZ (9-2 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
** NOTE all races on Loop on day were at least 25yds short of advertised race distance. ][ 6 runner race. Supp 3/1 oc. First 2 home 9L clear of 3rd & Getabuzz in 4th btn 12.2L ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
23/09/2013 Black Label H. J. L. Dunlop CrowleyJ KTNA 10 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"BLACK LABEL shaped very well on his second start at Lingfield and looks overpriced in the 1m 2f maiden at Kempton today (2.20). Having shown a glimmer of promise on his debut at Salisbury, he was a bit slow into stride at Lingfield and found himself at the rear of the field, which turned out to be a big disadvantage, as the pace soon steadied. He was around six lengths behind in sixth place turning for home and ridden along, but stayed on really strongly to finish a clear second behind the wide-margin winner. Those that finished behind him look moderate, but his superiority over the remainder was masked by the manner in which the race was run, and even though the modest tempo meant the race was not a test of stamina, he shaped as if 1m2f would be within his compass. Heís well drawn here, and whilst thereís a chance one or more of his rivals from powerful stables could show improvement, I think Black Label created as good an impression as any on that sole Polytrack start. 1pt win BLACK LABEL (10/1 bet365*, Boyle Sports*, Coral*, Ladbrokes*, Paddy Power*, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
**NOTE = 2yo 10f Mdn ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/09/2013 Keep The Secret W. J. Knight KirbyA LNGA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"KEEP THE SECRET has clearly been hard to train, but she shaped a bit better on turf last time and it might be worth taking the chance that she can return to something like her debut form back on Polytrack in the first division of the 1m handicap at Lingfield today (3.30). She came from last to first on the bridle on her debut to win in hugely impressive style, the moderate time attributable to a slow early pace, but she has struggled to find her form this season, including on Polytrack on her second start. However, there was a little more encouragement in her latest effort at Yarmouth in a race that is working out very well, and her trainer William Knight reported in a recent at the races stable tour that she has been difficult to train because of bad feet, but felt that he had had a clearer run with her of late. The booking of Adam Kirby, who rode her to her debut win, looks interesting given there are runners in the race from the Botti and Cox yards that he has ridden recently, and the return to the scene of her standout performance might see Keep The Secret in a better light. 1pt win KEEP THE SECRET (10/1 general - use BOG* firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/09/2013 Hawker C. Appleby BarzalonaM LNGA 10 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"The 1m2f maiden that closes Lingfield's card (5.30) looks a really interesting contest for the time of year. Squire Osbaldeston has always been well regarded and has reportedly been working well lately, whilst there has been a big move for the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Musaddas this morning. However, this means that HAWKER has been weak in the market, and he makes some appeal as an each-way proposition. He shaped much better than the distance he was beaten in a maiden over the extended 1m trip at Wolverhampton earlier this month; he was held up in a race run at a steady pace (around 0.7 seconds slower to the 2f pole than the class 6 2yo race run half an hour earlier), then short of room at the rear on the home turn, before staying on under nicely to take 3rd, though with no chance of landing a blow at the impressive winner. The winner's final 2f time was the fastest at any of the six meetings in September, even though the track has speeded up a fair bit since that meeting, which not only highlights that the winner put in a useful effort, but that the early pace didn't suit the hold-up horses. Hawker, trained by Charlie Appleby, finished in front of the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained favourite that day, and he looks value again here. 1pt each-way HAWKER (12/1 Bet Victor*, bet365*, Sky Bet*, StanJames*)"


Notes:-
**NOTE = 1pt EW so a 2pts selection overall ] [



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
25/09/2013 Drive On E. Johnson-Houghton FahyJP KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"DRIVE ON goes handicapping off a basement mark and there are reasons to think he should prove very competitive in the 7f nursery at Kempton this evening (7.00). He has shown signs of greenness on all three starts, but after two runs over 5f, he produced his best effort to date stepped up to 6f last time at Lingfield, belying his status as a 50-1 outsider and brought with a promising run inside the final two furlongs, fading under a considerate ride only inside the final furlong, also ending up wider than ideal at a track where the stands rail has again been a huge advantage this season. He went through the race much more smoothly than Midnight Rambler, who made some late progress closer to the rail under a more vigorous ride to get within a neck of Drive On, and whilst the former looks very much a nursery type and shapes as if the step up in trip will suit, he has to give Drive On 6lb and is a much shorter price. Drive On is a half-brother to Cool Hand Luke, whose best efforts came on Polytrack at 1m+, so the switch to this surface and step up in trip (also wears a tongue strap for the first time) might bring about sufficient improvement to take this. 1pt win DRIVE ON (16/1 Bet Victor*, 14/1 general - use BOG* firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
25/09/2013 Trisara H. J. L. Dunlop DoyleJ KTNA 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"TRISARA might be the interesting one in the first division of the 6f handicap at Kempton (8.30). She shaped much better than the eventual result on her belated debut over 7f here in June, three wide but travelling smoothly and one of four that kicked a couple of lengths clear 2f out and still fifth a furlong out before fading badly as stamina and lack of peak fitness presumably took their toll. Three of the first four home went on to be rated 85+ and she should find this 0-60 handicap a different proposition, having shown ability on both subsequent starts over 5f at Windsor (would have finished much closer but for being badly squeezed out in the final furlong, heavily eased thereafter). She's by Exceed And Excel and should appreciate the return to Polytrack, whilst her stable has been enjoying a good run lately. 1pt win TRISARA (12/1 William Hill*, 11/1 Ladbrokes*, 10/1 general - use BOG* firms)"


Notes:-
4TO 3yo off OR58, unr 2yo ][ Last of 12 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
27/09/2013 Mezmerised M. Botti KirbyA WTON 9.5 SSW

HT Selection Text:-

"At Wolverhampton I'm interested in MEZMERIZED in the final race (9.10). She's a big price this morning because neither her speed figures nor her finishing positions look anything out of the ordinary, but on two of her last three Polytrack starts she has shaped very well faced with an unfavourable pace scenario. In July she stayed on steadily to finish a good second over 1m2f off a very steady pace, shaping as if a stronger gallop would have suited, and after racing too keenly in cheekpieces over 1m at Kempton two outings ago, she ran a race full of promise there last time over 1m2f. That race has been widely reported as being run at a sound pace, but in my opinion that race, in tandem with almost the entire card that evening, was run at a below average pace (around 3 seconds slower to the 3f pole than the class 5 event run over the same course and distance four days earlier, for instance), and after travelling as well as most Mesmerized shaped just about best of those horses held up. She gives the impression there is a fair bit more to come once betting a stronger pace, and she should get just that this evening with plenty of prominent runners in the field. There are plenty of interesting runners in the field, but Mezmerised has a good jockey booking and might be able to pounce with a late run off what will hopefully be a decent gallop. 2pts win MEZMERIZED (11/1 Bet Fred*, Bet Victor*, Labrokes*, Sky Bet)"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 2pts Win ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
28/09/2013 Estiqaama W. J. Haggas HanaganP NMKT 8 GFG

HT Selection Text:-

"The stalls are switched to the far side at Newmarket today, and this is a day when, in recent years, it has sometimes appeared to be an advantage to make the running tight against the far rail. It's not a completely watertight theory - when the field spread out during last year's Silver Cambridgeshire the far side wasn't at an advantage - but in smaller fields with the stalls on the far side at this time of year I'm always interested in a low-drawn front-running type. ESTIQAAMA fits the bill in the Listed Rosemary Stakes (2.10). She has flourished since being sent handicapping on decent ground with a hood fitted, completing a hat-trick with a wide-margin win at Yarmouth last time. This is a much tougher race, but she responds well to aggressive tactics, and she's quick from the stalls, so she might be able to get the rail; the back-to-form Switcher, drawn in stall one, is a danger to dispute the early running, but she's up in trip on what may not be her ideal ground and her chances might be compromised if she takes on Estiqaama, who looks sure to be getting on with it from an early stage, and William Haggas' past history suggests he knows the potential advantage of the far rail at this meeting (exploited it to great effect with Rosdhu Queen in last year's Cheveley Park Stakes). 1pt win ESTIQAAMA (11/2 Paddy Power*, StanJames*, 5/1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
28/09/2013 Belgian Bill G. Baker CosgroveP NMKT 9 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"BELGIAN BILL is at his best on quick ground on a straight track on turf and he can go well at big odds in the Cambridgeshire (3.50) despite his big weight. He was helped by being in the right group when winning the Hunt Cup in June, but he had a bit to spare in the closing stages over those he raced with. He was badly drawn and unsuited by the drop in trip in the Bunbury Cup on his next start, and then looked unlucky not to win a Group Three event at Deauville, just failing to catch Fire Ship, who got a soft lead. Belgian Bill travelled well in another Group three event in Munich last time, but was unable to pick up on the soft ground. He will be much better suited by underfoot conditions here, and although he has no secrets from the handicapper and is vulnerable to progressive types at this sort of level, he should run his race on ground that will suit him better than some of his rivals, and he makes each-way appeal. 1pt each way BELGIAN BILL (40-1 ľ odds 12345 Bet365, Betfred, betvictor, Stan James *BOG)"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 1pts ew Selection ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
28/09/2013 Silvanus P. T. Midgley McDonaldP RIPN 5 G

HT Selection Text:-

"SILVANUS travelled as if back in top form last time and can take advantage of a favourable mark in the 5f handicap at Ripon (5.25). The concern is that he's on a long losing run, but he struggled with the handicapper for a long time after a purple patch last summer. His run when fourth two outings ago over 6f at Thirsk has worked out very well, and he travelled as if at the top of his game at Doncaster last time, going best from a long way out in what was probably the unfavoured centre group, but repeatedly denied a clear run, still managing to finish third behind two horses that raced closer to the stands side. The draw is again a slight question mark here, but if he gets the run of the race from that point of view he should run well. 1pt win SILVANUS (5-1 Bet365, Betvictor, Ladbrokes *BOG)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
29/09/2013 Verse Of Love P. D. Evans GannonC EPSM 10.1 G

HT Selection Text:-

"Most of VERSE OF LOVE's form has come at around 7f or a mile, but his stamina looks worth chancing at the prices in the 1m2f handicap at Epsom today (3.55). He has tried this sort of trip only twice before; the first occasion came on heavy ground in the April of his 3yo season so is easily excused, and the latest came when third at Windsor under a big weight to Croquembouche (won off 7lb higher mark next time and likely to be a total of over a stone higher when reassessed on Tuesday after another good run this week), with odds-on favourite Regal Silk in second. He is really well suited by left-handed turning tracks (six career wins include two at Chester, and one each at Wolverhampton, Warwick and here), and his sole previous run at this track produced a runaway win over 7f, surging clear in the final 100 yards and giving the impression his margin would have increased even more over further. He has been running well lately, and whilst his latest conditions race form may flatter him slightly (fourth at level weights behind horses rated 99, 108 and 90-rated Silver Cambridgeshire winner Bancnuanaheireann), the race was run at a fair gallop and if anything he was coming back at the leaders at the line. Left on the same mark, he could be dangerous here, especially if finding himself well placed to strike turning for home (can make the running). 1pt win VERSE OF LOVE (16-1 Stan James, Coral *BOG, 14-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
30/09/2013 Burnt Cream M. R. Bosley HavlinR BATH 5 GF

HT Selection Text:-

"BURNT CREAM has more potential than most with her lowly rating and she can confirm that sheís going the right way by following up her recent course and distance win at Bath today (5.00). She has always had the ability to travel strongly (made a hefty sum at the breeze-up sales as a 2yo), but recently she has been finishing her races off a little better, seeming to take well to Rob Havlinís assistance in the saddle. Two outings ago she pulled clear with the winner at Yarmouth, and last time over todayís course and distance she was the only horse on the bridle from some way out, having to be driven out to record a narrow win in the end but going through the race as if capable of a fair bit better than the bare form. The runner-up has won since and the third, Little China, who has also run well twice since, is only 4lb better off for two and a half lengths. This track can suit strong-travelling hold-up horses and if Burnt Cream continues to go the right way she has the potential to prove a fair bit better than her current mark of 55. 1pt win BURNT CREAM (11-2 bet365, 5-1 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/10/2013 The Wee Chief J. C. Fox HardieC7 KTNA 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"THE WEE CHIEF has been called a few names in his time and isnít one for the feint-hearted, but he returns to Polytrack for the first time in a while at Kempton this evening (9.20) and looks overpriced on much of his form on this surface. The negatives arenít hard to find, as he has a high head carriage and doesnít always find as much as seems likely, whilst his prospects today will depend heavily on whether his apprentice rider (who has yet to ride a winner but has been used by Richard Hannon on a number of occasions and has looked tidy in the saddle) can get him settled during the early stages from his wide draw. However, he has plenty of ability and a number of fair efforts on this surface (including at this track) to his name, and having taken a while to find his form this season following a 10-month absence, he shaped as if back in form despite finishing last at Sandown last time, denied a clear run up the far rail and never coming off the bridle. Whilst he doesnít find much for pressure, he might have the race run to suit here with Rambo Will, Rock Up and Commandingpresence likely to ensure a fair gallop, and whilst I wouldnít be interested in him at much shorter odds, if his young rider can settle him early he probably has a better chance than his price this morning suggests. 1pt win THE WEE CHIEF (20-1 Coral, William Hill)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
01/10/2013 Expert Fighter S. B. Suroor FallonK KTNA 11 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"A case can be made for all the runners in the 1m3f handicap at Kempton (8.20), but EXPERT FIGHTER gives the impression he is at his best on Polytrack and can confirm that the race he contested last time was a really useful one. He was beaten a fair way in seventh, but made a little late headway having raced three wide for most of the contest, and he patently faced an impossible task trying to give almost a stone to Cat Oí Mountain, who is a very accomplished performer on this surface. Expert Fighter has the inside draw here, and in a race that may become tactical, he does have the ability to quicken off a steady pace on this surface, as he showed when beating Spifer over this course and distance in May. All his rivals have a chance, notably his two Godolphin rivals, but second and third strings from Godolphin can never be ruled out and Kieren Fallon rode the supposed third string (according to the betting) to win the September Stakes here last month. 1pt win EXPERT FIGHTER (8-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms, 9-1 Boylesports)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
" 3rd String Cols but did best of 3 x Godolphin with other 4th & tailed off last of 7. Race won by 8yo Lowther at 20/1 with 'hot form' A5. ][ GNG FR DW

HT Selection Text:-

""


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
02/10/2013 Loved One J. R. Fanshawe KellySW NOTT 8.3 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"LOVED ONE has run really well on both starts at Nottingham and can go well again off what remains a fair mark in the extended 1m handicap (4.40). She showed much-improved form over this course and distance on her third career start, belying her odds of 50-1 when a close fourth, the first four pulling a long way clear. That race looked strong at the time and so it has proved, winner Odeliz now rated 98 after winning a Listed race in France and the other placed horses both rated 85. That race suggested that quick ground holds no fears for her (a steady gallop over 7f on quick ground was no good to her at Doncaster next time, and her full sister Caressed did all her racing and winning on good or fast ground), but she beat a fair type in Blighty, again over todayís course and distance, on good to soft ground two outings ago and again ran well when runner-up on soft ground at Windsor last time (winner won again next time), so her chances may not be completely ground-dependent here. There could be more improvement after just six career starts, and her stable continues in decent form. 1pt win LOVED ONE (13-2 bet365, 6-1 Betfred, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
HT makes point she has form on various types of going but doesn't specifically mention that rain forecast, and had fallen, by the time he made his Selection. Normally with Ground likely to change he watches the radar and is on top of poss changes and often makes it part of selection process. This reads as if he was expecting GF. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
02/10/2013 Mount Tiger J. J. S. Tate CallanN KTNA 11 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"MOUNT TIGERís two Polytrack wins over Wolverhamptonís extended mile both read well, but both his running style and pedigree promise more to come over further, and he makes most appeal in what looks a very interesting 1m3f handicap at Kempton (8.40). Heís a son of Tiger Hill out of a Galileo mare, and after winning in a rapid time on his second start in June, he pulled too hard upped in trip at Sandown on his handicap debut. Returned to the extended mile at Wolverhampton two outings ago, he did very well to win, again seeing plenty of daylight and very keen during the early stages of a race run at a steady early pace, but still finding plenty after coming under pressure turning for home to beat Ocean Tempest and Invisible Hunter. That form has proved very strong, ocean tempest winning three times since and Invisible Hunter running really well on both subsequent starts. Not at his best in the mud over a mile at Thirsk last time, Mount Tiger will appreciate the return to Polytrack and promises to be suited by this bigger-field scenario, and providing he settles, there could be plenty more to come at this sort of trip. 1pt win MOUNT TIGER (7-1 Ladbrokes, 6-1 bet365, BetVictor, Coral, Stan James*)"


Notes:-
Supp 9/2 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/10/2013 Senorita Guest M. R. Channon HitchcottS WTON 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"SENORITA GUEST is still a maiden after nine starts and ran poorly on her last two outings, but she shaped really well on her only Polytrack outing to date and a return to that sort of form would make her a danger to all in the 6f nursery at Wolverhampton (5.40). That sole Polytrack debut came three outings ago at Lingfield; she impressed with the way she travelled towards the rear of the field, and she was the only one still on the bridle turning for home, but she was a bit short of room on the inside and the leaders were beyond recall once she finally found her stride. She ran a similar sort of race to Basil Berry, who was a well-backed winner on Polytrack next time, and although her next two starts on turf were disappointing (especially when well drawn at Lingfield), she is 7lb lower here than on that previous Polytrack start, and it could be this is her ideal surface. 1pt win SENORITA GUEST (12-1 bet365, BetVictor, 11-1 general)"


Notes:-
**NOTE = HT did a Form Factor the previous day noting how much slower the relaid Polytrack surface had proved to be. Including noting that jk Hughes had said the sand looked different. HT said he wouldn't say the surface was like SWEL now but certainly different from before the maintenance work. How does LNGA polytrack equate to this new WTON surface? HT doesn't mention that. ][ Began Nurs off OR68 & declined after each of 4 runs to drop to 59 from OR62 LTO. Beaten 11 & 17L last 2 runs ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/10/2013 Izzy Boy M. Johnston FanningJ SWEL 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Southwell (5.00) IZZY BOY is a boom-or-bust selection, especially coming off a long absence, but he fits the bill in many respects in terms of the type of horse that might take to Fibresand and at double-figure odds he looks worth chancing. Heís a son of Elusive Quality, whose progeny tend to go well on this surface (26-160, +53pts overall), out of a mare who won three times on turf and three times on dirt, and his full sister Royale Michele won four times on dirt, including at Grade Two level, in the US. Izzy Boy is the kind of keen racing type that might take well to the surface and he has his first start on Fibresand off a mark of just 61. 1pt win IZZY BOY (14-1 bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Stan James)"


Notes:-
OH1 since actual is OR60 & bw, 7 race Mdn and 3TO as 3yo. Began Nurs 4TO off OR72 & beaten 21, 14, 9 & 17L in his 4 x Hcap runs. ][ Supp 9/1 oc ][ Slow start, race wide and NIR ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/10/2013 Chrissycross R. A. Teal WinstonR SWEL 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the opener at Southwell (2.00), CHRISSYCROSS would be hard to fancy on her recent turf/Polytrack outings, but if she were able to reproduce the form of her sole previous Fibresand run, she would be a different proposition altogether. She didnít beat much that day, but she powered 12 lengths clear in the straight and recorded an excellent timefigure; that meeting started with four races over the same course and distance, and her time was faster than either of the two races for older horses, and 0.82 seconds faster than that recorded by Sparkling Portait (who was admittedly eased down) half an hour later. The latter has gone on to much better things than Chrissycross, but the return to this surface might rejuvenate the latter; itís possible that much of the improvement she showed on her previous run here was down to the application of first-time blinkers, but she did seem to relish the surface. Itís a concern that Adam Kirby, who was on board for both her wins and on her last two starts, is on Mingun Bell, but the latter has an obvious chance and Kirby hasnít done less than 9-00 since early July anyway."


Notes:-
Carries 8-12 ][ 2nd but has to count as a V Good selection. Alwaysa tv well, pull clear with bgr horse (rxg wght) last 1f and beaten a Hd ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
04/10/2013 Ninjago R. Hannon MooreRL ASCT 6 CSC

HT Selection Text:-

"NINJAGO has been shaping well in defeat in most of his recent runs and looks the interesting one returning to the course and distance of his standout performance in the 6f handicap at Ascot today (3.05). He looked a potentially top-class sprinter when winning a Listed event here in May, cruising through from the rear under a confident ride. He hasn't quite lived up to that promise since, but he didn't shape badly when 8th in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, making a big move from the back of the field from the half mile pole to 2f out, but unable to sustain his effort thereafter. He has shaped well in very competitive sprint handicaps on all three starts since, making good late headway into fifth place in the Stewards' Cup two outings ago, and then at Newmarket last time he finished first of the six horses that raced in the centre group, just in front of Rocky Ground (also raced up the centre), who has run well on both starts since, albeit over 5f. If he's in anything like the form of his previous run over this course and distance, he'll be hard to beat. Breton Rock was one of my eyecatchers after his latest win at Doncaster, but he's not certain to be suited by the drop to 6f here. 1pt win NINJAGO (7/1 general - use BOG firms)"


Notes:-
3yos Hcap off OR102. Tw Lucky Beggar on 103 ][ 7/2f oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
04/10/2013 Jodies Jem W. Jarvis HanaganP ASCT 8 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"JODIES JEM shaped really well when third at Sandown last time and has decent claims in the 1m classified event at Ascot (2.30). He loomed up still full of running 2f out at Sandown last time on rain-softened ground, but found his path blocked and had to be switched twice, and after losing momentum he did well to stay on into third. This is a competitive race, but Jodies Jem's only poor run in his career to date came at Doncaster two outings ago, when the vet subsequently reported that he was lame, and he might be able to continue his progression here on a track that should suit his strong-travelling style. 1pt win JODIES JEM (8/1 BetFred*, Bet Victor*, Boylesports*, Ladbrokes*)"


Notes:-
Straight 8f ][ 3yo off OR87 won Nov-Dec Auc Mdn & AW Nurs 4-5TO off OR75, 4 x 3yo runs off OR80, 82, 87 & 87, 3 x places. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/10/2013 Big Johnny D T. D. Barron GibbonsG ASCT 7 S

HT Selection Text:-

"The two-day meeting at Ascot this year is unfolding in similar fashion to last year's fixture, with the rails in on both sides on the straight track and the ground turning soft. Last year, I felt that the far side of the track was the best place to be, and yesterday's racing suggested that may be the case again this year. In the circumstances, I think BIG JOHNNY D might prove hard to peg back in the big 7f handicap (3.50) from stall 2 (stalls are on far side, but this is a big field). He has been a revelation since dropped to 7f on his last three starts, making all on each occasion, and he was the only horse on the bridle from a long way out at Haydock last time; Haydock is a notoriously tricky track on which to gauge times because of the frequent rail movements, but given rain had been falling through the card, it appears that the time Big Johnny D recorded was quick, especially as he appeared to be far from all out, so I wouldn't be too concerned that those in behind haven't done much since. If he can get into a rhythm , he could be hard to catch. 1pt win BIG JOHNNY D (8-1 Boylesports, Betvictor, Paddy Power *BOG )"


Notes:-
Trained by JL Dunlop (hence the name presumably) 2-3yo & placed ab in 5 runs. Rated OR82 at 3yo bec places in NMKT maidens at 2yo & 3yo.OR79 over 9f for 4yo debut for Barron & unp. Won last 3 at NEWC, RDCR & HYDK off OR75, 81 (pen) & 88 and OR97 here. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/10/2013 Fairway To Heaven M. Wigham DobbsPJ ASCT 6 S

HT Selection Text:-

"On official figures FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN appears to have little chance in the Bengough Stakes (3.15), and he's a huge price this morning. However, I'm sure he's capable of much, much better than his official rating suggests, especially on softish ground, and from a potentially helpful draw he makes some each-way appeal. He travels like a really good horse - one capable of holding his own in better company - and he was hugely impressive when winning on soft ground at Thirsk last year on his turf debut (clear of two horses who act very well with give in the ground, with a long distance to the remainder). He's presumably not been the easiest to train since then, but after shaping as if needing the run on quick ground on his belated reappearance, he looked unlucky not to win at Doncaster last time; he again shaped as if they weren't going fast enough for him for much of the race, and had to wait for a run whilst the two pacesetters kicked for home 2f out. The front two didn't stop - the early pace had looked very modest and most of the field were in a tight bunch and still going well 2f out - and although Fairway To Heaven made smooth headway from the rear to get upsides the winner near the line, he couldn't get past. He travels as if he will cope with the step up in class, the ground will be in his favour if it doesn't dry out too much (many of the progeny of his sire Jeremy go very well on softish ground), and it's really interesting that connections with a reputation for shrewdness appear prepared to potentially sacrifice an attractive handicap mark here (stable's Fanunalter sprang a 33-1 surprise when seemingly up against it in Group Two company at this track last year) 1pt each way FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN (40-1 Boylesports, Ladbrokes - 1/4 Odds first 3 - *BOG )"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 1pt EW ][ OR87 & lowest rated of 15 runners with 3 rated 111-12 range ][ Drift 16/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/10/2013 Mistral Wind E. A. L. Dunlop HavlinR WTON 12.2 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Wolverhampton this evening (6.30) MISTRAL WIND can bounce back from a below-par run last time in the 1m4f handicap. That latest run can be excused as the field went a very moderate gallop and the track was riding very deep at the time. She's probably better judged on her previous run at Lingfield, when she pulled well clear along with Prospera in what had seemed beforehand to be a competitive 0-75 handicap. The winner won a hot 0-85 event next time, and Mistral Wind ought to be able to win an ordinary-looking 0-70 handicap such as this on that evidence. 1pt win MISTRAL WIND (7-2 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
6 runner HCAP off OR65 bw, 4 x 3yo & 2 x 4-5yo ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
06/10/2013 Red Lips LoweA VeronF LONG 9.9 S

HT Selection Text:-

"RED LIPS looked unlucky not to finish at least upsides runner-up Secret Gesture in the Preis Der Diana (German Oaks) last time, and at the respective prices she looks a bit of value in the Prix de l'Opera (2.30). That was her first run beyond a mile and she appeared to show much-improved form, but she did remarkably well to finish as close as she did after suffering plenty of interference just after the home turn, also stumbling badly in the same incident. She took a while to find her stride after that, but finished as well as any, beaten only a round a length at the finish, a neck and a short head behind Secret Gesture. She remains unexposed at this sort of trip - although she is by the sprinter Areion, she's a half-sister to two winning chasers and her dam was a stayer. The value of the Preis Der Diana form is hard to assess - the winner, Penelopa, ran no sort of race next time, and the field weren't especially spread out at the finish, but Secret Gesture has been placed in Group One events either side of the German race, and Red Lips' stable mate Adoya, who was third in the Preis Der Diana, comfortably won a Group Three event against older horses next time. 1pt each way RED LIPS (33-1 Ladbrokes 1/5 odds first 4 - 25-1 Bet365, 20-1 Stan James, 18-1 Coral - 1/4 Odds first 3 - *BOG )"


Notes:-
***NOTE 1pt EW ][ Could consider this an Angle of British Markets under-rating foreign horses and form. Secret Gesture trained by BeckettRM ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/10/2013 Cruiser W. R. Muir DwyerM WDSR 8.3 G

HT Selection Text:-

"CRUISER has plenty going for him in the 1m handicap at Windsor today (5.20) and should go well. He is perhaps best known as a Polytrack horse, but his two best Timeform performance ratings have actually come on turf, and he has run particularly well on both starts at this track. He foiled a big gamble on Shamdarley (who won off a 5lb higher mark next time) over this course and distance in May, the pair pulling well clear of the remainder. Cruiser won off a mark of 77 two outings later at Ffos Las, and then ran another excellent race back at todayís venue when pulling clear with Storming, who shaped better than the bare result next time. The time of that race was excellent - in fact it was the second fastest ever recorded over course and distance, the fastest being by the 107-rated French Navy in a Listed race earlier this summer, and it looks all the better given that Cruiser was lumping 9-12. He wasnít at his best on Polytrack last time, but he is 6lb lower here, which means he runs off the same mark as that last, very good effort here, and he should go well with his stable in excellent form. 1pt win CRUISER (15-2 Betfred, 7-1 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/10/2013 King Of Wing P. S. McEntee GannonC WTON 8.6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"KING OF WING isnít the most consistent of horses, but his two Wolverhampton runs in the blinkers/eyeshield combination have both been very good, and if he does repeat the form (especially that of his latest start), heíll be hard to beat in the first division of the 1m handicap at Wolverhampton (5.30). That latest effort came when third in a really good time over todayís course and distance (time was considerably faster than the two remaining class 6 races run over course and distance that day), and the form was franked the next day when the fourth, Goal, won easily. If King Of Wing can reproduce that effort, he should go close as there arenít many others in the field that are both in-form and proven on the surface. 1pt win KING OF WING (8-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
***NOTE = After a poor run of results HT finally cracked and sent this Tweet soon after his two selections on the day had run = was my best year tipping ever until 3/4 wks ago. Geez but I've been bad since then. Sorry to those following, not for want of trying! ][ Noting in another Tweet the next morning, which thanked those for consolatory messages, that he could handle losing runs as a punter but found them a lot more difficult as a Tipster ][ Worth Checking into this 'Bad Run' afterwards to see whether it was just Random or whether he was doing anything differently. Correct or not, my 'Instinct; would say that a lot of his recent tips have relied on 'Recently Unproven Horses' now switching to their preferred Going/Crs, plus a lot of 'Shpbtrs'. This equals a lot of 'Hope for Change' rather than relying on proven in-form horses. Which will produce a lot of, to use his words, 'Boom or Bust' Selections ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/10/2013 Compton Bird H. H. Adielsson HaynesJ5 BTON 9.9 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"COMPTON BIRD has shaped as if at the top of her game on each of her last two starts and should go well again in the 1m2f handicap at Brighton today (4.20). She caught the eye in no uncertain terms at Kempton last time, held up at the back of the field from her wide draw, but coming with a sustained run in the home straight and unlucky not to win having made up so much ground in a steadily-run race (much the steadiest pace of the four 1m races run on that card). She had also shaped well when fourth in a 0-85 event at Newmarket on her previous start; although that wasnít by any means a strong event for the grade, she still ran with plenty of credit to be one of four horses that pulled clear, and indeed she looked as likely a winner as any until the final 100 yards. Itís a bit of a concern that she reappears so quickly given that she has had a lot of runs in a short space of time, but she appears to be thriving, and sheíll be 2lb higher from Saturday. 1pt win COMPTON BIRD (7-1 bet365, Stan James* 13-2 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
This HT's 1st winner for a long spell and broke the day before & apologized on Twtter. On Form Factor next day they showed this winner!!! Ignore the huge losing run and just show his one winner. HT tried to balance in by saying it broke a long losing run and tried to remind himself that at his average SP losing runs on 20+ will happen. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/10/2013 Claim The Roses E. F. Vaughan MooreRL KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"CLAIM THE ROSESí Polytrack form looks very solid and he sets a high standard in the 7f nursery at Kempton this evening (8.10). He made a winning debut at Wolverhampton in July, the first successful debutant for Ed Vaughan since 2008 (spanning 67 runs), impressing with the way he travelled. The runner-up Clever Miss won by four lengths next time (and the two horses that chased her home in that race both won next time), and the third, fifth and sixth have all won since. Claim The Roses spoiled his chance by hanging left on turf on his second start, but he turned in a convincing performance returned to Polytrack last time. Dropped to 6f and wearing a first-time hood, he took a while to find his stride but surged through in impressive style in the closing stages, well on top at the line, shaping as if the return to 7f would suit but still clocking a very good time. The runner-up had also recorded a fast time when winning over the same course and distance on her previous start, and the form looks very solid. This looks potentially a very warm race, but Claim The Roses has already run to a similar standard on the evidence of the clock as Tamarkuz, the runaway winner of this race last year, and he should be hard to beat. 2pts win CLAIM THE ROSES (11-4 William Hill, 5-2 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 2pts Win ][ 2 x NR on morning, Prob 1 after (or during process of) Selection made and put ][ 4 runner race and a VERY slow time. CTRoses held up last of the 4 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/10/2013 Bladewood Girl J. R. Jenkins TylickiF KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the closing 7f handicap (9.10) BLADEWOOD GIRL can go well on what amounts to a drop in class. She looked the type to do well on Polytrack when winning on her handicap debut at Lingfield off a mark of 60 a year ago, and she shaped well when an unlucky-in-running 4th off a 3lb higher mark next time. She ran no sort of race on her next start and didnít run on this surface again until July; she twice wasnít beaten far in 0-65 events over a mile here, and her run at Southwell last time is probably best ignored (well beaten sole previous start there and drifted to far rail in the straight this time). She drops into 0-55 company for the first time, and her latest Polytrack run looks solid form in the context of this race (3rd, 4th, 9th and 10th have all won on this surface since). She drops to 7f here for the first time, but a couple of habitual front-runners should ensure a decent pace and other than First Peninsular, whose stableís handicap debutants are always to be respected, the race lacks unexposed types. 1pt win BLADEWOOD GIRL (11-1 Paddy Power, William Hill)"


Notes:-
**HT on Form Factor on day and specifically said The angle here is Class Dropping ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/10/2013 Drinmoy Lad McElhoneM McNiffL3 Ayr 6 S

HT Selection Text:-

"On an unappealing betting day, DRINMOY LAD should be suited by conditions if the ground remains genuinely soft at Ayr and he can go well in the first division of the 6f handicap (2.40). His form figures on ground officially described as soft or heavy read 23212, whereas his remaining form figures on turf read 79000850, suggesting that plenty of give in the ground is important to him. He beat Cookie Crumbles (who reopposes here) on his final 3yo start on heavy ground at Cork over 5f, and his best effort by some way this year came on the softest ground he encountered this season when unlucky not to get up over Sligoís extended 6f. He ran about as well as could have been expected on quick ground against better-calibre horses last time, and if the ground hasnít dried out he could return to form here. 1pt win DRINMOY LAD (12-1 Coral, Bet Victor, 11-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/10/2013 Pearl Blue C. F. Wall BentleyH YORK 5 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"PEARL BLUE can land a repeat victory in the 5f handicap at York (2.30). She benefitted from a very strong pace when winning this race last year, surging through late to win with a bit to spare as the leaders folded, but a 20-runner 5f handicap at York is rarely run at anything but a strong gallop and this should be no exception. Pearl Blue was out of sorts when making her first two starts earlier this season, but her stable made a slow start to the season (first winner didnít arrive until late May). Although the yardís flurry of September winners has dried up recently, a lot of the very recent runners havenít had an obvious chance, and Pearl Blueís own reappearance from a four-month absence at Leicester was most encouraging, staying on steadily under a considerate ride having also encountered trouble in running. Itís possible she has been trained with this race in mind, she is only 3lb higher this year, and with the ground looking set to be on the soft side of good (any further rain would be very much in her favour), she should go well. 1pt win PEARL BLUE (9-1 general)"


Notes:-
Drift 8/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/10/2013 Jacks Revenge G. Baker CosgroveP YORK 8 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"JACKS REVENGE is at his best off a strong pace in a big field at around a mile, and he should have conditions to suit at York today (3.05). He was a big eyecatcher in the Lincoln on his seasonal reappearance, and he has shaped well on more than one occasion since, unlucky to run into handicap snip Ascription at Glorious Goodwood in July, then finishing strongly over an inadequate 7f there two outings ago. His latest run in the Cambridgeshire can be safely ignored - Jacks Revenge is best when threading his way through from the rear, but he received one of the very few poor rides we have seen from the usually excellent Oisin Murphy this season, ridden much more prominently than usual and leading the far-side group with over 3f to go, unsurprisingly fading quickly in the final 2f. With Graphic, Askaud, Nameitwhatyoulike and Robert The Painter all candidates to race prominently, Jacks Revenge should get the strongly-run race that suits here, and granted luck in running, it shouldnít be a surprise if he leaves his Cambridgeshire running well behind. 1pt win JACKS REVENGE (12-1 general)"


Notes:-
Note this a 7.9f race ][ Supp 8/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/10/2013 Sohar J. A. R. Toller GannonC NMKT 18 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"The declarations for the Cesarewitch were made yesterday, but I think there might be some opportunities now with the ground at Newmarket already eased to good this morning and the Met Office forecasting heavy rain at Newmarket for much of tomorrow. It might seem crazy nominating a maiden for this race, but SOHARís best run in her short career to date came on very testing ground at this track, when she and Ardlui pulled a long way clear of Lieutenant Miller, who is now 12lb worse off. Iíve been waiting for her to run on similar ground again since, but she hasnít encountered it in four starts this year; nonetheless she has shaped as if retaining her ability on a couple of occasions, running very well in the Queen Alexandra Stakes before blowing her chance by losing 20 lengths at the flag start at Goodwood two outings ago. Her other runs on ground softer than good were also very good and she will look very overpriced if the forecast rain arrives. 1pt each-way SOHAR (50-1 BetVictor 40-1 Skybet, 33-1 bet365, Labrokes all 1/4 odds 12345, also 50-1 William Hill 1/4 odds 1234)"


Notes:-
***NOTE = Tip for big race the following day ][ Heavy Rain for NMKT on the Saturday didn't happen. Long Spur of Cloud & Rain 50-100 miles North for the whole day and only widened to alow some light rain at NMKT in late pm (as C4 coverage closing) ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/10/2013 Moidore J. J. Quinn ByrneD5 NMKT 18 GSG

HT Selection Text:-

"MOIDORE is another to keep onside for the Cesarewitch given the forecast. His best form has come when encountering plenty of give, he shaped well at Ayr last time under an aggressive ride, and his stable, who do so well with this type of stayer, went very close to landing this race last year with Countrywide Flame. Moidoreís effort when second to Well Sharp on ground that became very testing on the day of the race reads very well now, as the winner bolted up off a 10lb higher mark at Royal Ascot on his only subsequent run, and Moidore was well clear of the remainder. Heís a genuine horse, likely to give his running, and again looks overpriced. 1pt each-way MOIDORE (33-1 bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Skybet all 1/4 odds 12345)"


Notes:-
***NOTE = Tip for big race the following day ][ Heavy Rain for NMKT on the Saturday didn't happen. Long Spur of Cloud & Rain 50-100 miles North for the whole day and only widened to alow some light rain at NMKT in late pm (as C4 coverage closing) ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/10/2013 Valid Reason D. K. Ivory McDonaldJF YORK 18 GGS

HT Selection Text:-

"Having nailed my colours to the mast of a couple of soft-ground horses yesterday for the Cesarewitch, it's a bit galling to find that the persistent rain that was widely forecast for Newmarket today has now been replaced by a dry forecast; hopefully there will still be enough juice in the ground for my selections to give their running. Away from Newmarket, one horse that I do think is interesting is VALID REASON in the staying handicap at York (3.30). The case for him is simple; this is the third successive year that he has contested this race, and after being placed off a mark of 81 in 2011 and 79 last year, he is able to race off just 65 here. Of course, there's a reason for his falling mark, and that's the fact that he has generally seemed desperately out of form this year. However, there has to be a chance he has been brought along with this race in mind, given he was off the track between January and August, and he did shape a lot better in the Newmarket Cesarewitch Trial last time, racing very keenly during the early stages in second-time cheekpieces but travelling well for a much of the race. He was beaten a long way in the end in a race where the front three pulled a long way clear and the field finished well strung out, but he had more behind him than in front of him, suggesting a step in the right direction, and having raced from a long way out of the handicap there, he's 11lb lower here. Whilst the recent York record of his trainer Dean Ivory might be a statistical blip (last 5 runners here have all won), Valid Reason himself has produced two of his best performances at this track, and off a career-low mark a return to form looks very possible."


Notes:-
NOTE = Race was the 4



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/10/2013 Myboyalfie J. R. Jenkins ProbertD GDWD 8 S

HT Selection Text:-

"With the ground already soft and rain forecast across the south of England for much of the day, it's likely that conditions will be extremely testing at Goodwood. MYBOYALFIE relishes the mud and should go well in the closing 1m handicap (5.45). His five turf wins have all come on soft or heavy ground, and he shaped as if about to come to hand at Ascot last week, leading 3f out until fading inside the final 2f. He's more lightly raced this season than most in this contest, this only his third start back from a long break, and his wide draw, normally a big disadvantage over this course and distance, might not be such a problem given the field might end up coming towards the stands side in the straight. 1pt win MYBOYALFIE (9-1 Paddy Power William Hill - *BOG )"


Notes:-
Numerous NRs at GDWD because of change from G to S going by early am. This originally a 20 runner race. 5 x NRs by mid morning. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
13/10/2013 Ashpan Sam J. L. Spearing HughesR GDWD 6 S

HT Selection Text:-

"ASHPAN SAM is an in-form sprinter who relishes soft ground, so he looks sure to go well in the 6f handicap (4.45). He has looked at the top of his game on his last three starts, twice winning in good style before running an excellent race in the Ayr Bronze Cup, kicking a couple of lengths clear on the unfavoured far side, collared only close to the finish on that flank and overall shaping as if still very much on the up. He has Richard Hughes in the saddle here, and his revised mark might not be beyond him as he had already been put up a similar amount following his easy Haydock win on his previous start, and the handicapper might not have caught up with him yet. 1pt win ASHPAN SAM (10-1 Paddy Power Betvictor, Boylesport, Coral - *BOG )"


Notes:-
Numerous NRs at GDWD because of change from G to S going by early am. This originally a 20 runner race. 7 x NRs by mid morning leaving Ashpan Sam as tw. ][ *** CHECK FOR R4 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/10/2013 Jacobella J. G. Portman KingscoteR WDSR 12 S

HT Selection Text:-

"You have to go back a long way through the form book to find JACOBELLAís only piece of soft-ground form, but sheís potentially well handicapped on her second career start on testing ground at Windsor today (5.40). She looked really promising as a 2yo, especially on her second and final start, when she contested a quite valuable (for the calibre of horses involved) sales race at Ascot. She shaped really well to finish a staying-on fourth over an inadequate trip, especially as there seemed to be a bias towards the far rail that day and she came up the centre of the track. The other five horses that finished in the first six are all currently rated at least 78, but Jacobella runs off a mark of 65 here and encounters softish ground for the first time since that race. She won a weak race at Chepstow two outings ago, but although she beat only three home at Kempton last time, she wouldnít have been suited by the steady gallop, and in any case that race is working out remarkably well, the 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th. She still has a bit to prove in terms of rediscovering her form from last season, but the return to this sort of ground could see her in a much better light. 1pt win JACOBELLA (16-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
14/10/2013 Princess Caetani DennisD HitchcottS SALS 14 SHV

HT Selection Text:-

"At Salisbury (5.30) PRINCESS CAETANI is up against better opposition than she has faced in the past and is also up in trip, but such is her record on testing ground that she has to be of interest. She showed little over 1m2f on quick ground last time, but she has never achieved much away from testing conditions, whereas her form figures on ground officially softer than good read 7121321 (the first of those runs was on her racecourse debut over a mile). She doesnít always look the most straightforward (has carried head awkwardly/flashed tail) but she does go very well in the mud, and she shapes as if she ought to stay this trip (half-sister to the high-class Septimus, who won the Lonsdale Cup and Doncaster Cup after some high-class efforts over shorter earlier in his career). She beat two confirmed mudlarks with the field well strung out behind them at Chepstow two outings ago, and although this is a much better class of race, the testing conditions might take away that class barrier here; the wetter the better as far as her chances are concerned. 1pt win PRINCESS CAETANI (16-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/10/2013 King Zeal B. D. Leavy Milczarek LEIC 10 SHV

HT Selection Text:-

"At Leicester (5.45), with the ground set to ride very testing, I canít resist a small bet on the old boy KING ZEAL. There have to be obvious reservations about his lack of a recent run and how much ability he retains as a 9yo, but throughout his career heís always been at his best in the mud, and his Flat form from early last year would entitle him to go very close here if fit enough Ė he found only confirmed mudlark Tilsworth Glenboy too good at Nottingham before winning over this course and distance off a 1lb higher mark than todayís. Itís a big question mark over whether he returns from his absence close to his best or whether this is a prep for a hurdles campaign, and his wide draw isnít helpful, but heís priced accordingly this morning and his form figures in Flat handicaps on ground described as softer than good by Timeformís going description read 11212421. 1pt win KING ZEAL (25-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
15/10/2013 Alis Aquilae T. J. Etherington BeschizzaA KTNA 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"ALIS AQUILAE (Kempton 7.10) is a bit of a speculative selection as he had been off the track for so long prior to his two recent runs, but he showed enough on both Polytrack starts to suggest heís worth persevering with on this surface. Having won a Beverley maiden in July 2010, he shaped really well on his Polytrack debut over todayís course and distance later that year, travelling best of all and not getting much luck in running. He largely struggled the following season until returning to Kempton to contest a 5f handicap, and he again shaped very well, mown down in the closing stages by a well-handicapped horse that won again over the same course and distance next time. Obviously itís hard to gauge how much ability Alis Aquilae retains after an absence of almost two years (beaten around 5l last time), but heís potentially well handicapped back at the scene of two of his bets performances Ė having been fourth off 75 and runner-up off 65, he races off a mark of 60 here, and his small stable has been having its best year for some time. 1pt each-way ALIS AQUILAE (25-1 William Hill, 22-1 BetVictor)"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 1pt EW = 2pt bet ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/10/2013 Flamborough Breeze E. F. Vaughan BakerG LNGA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"FLAMBOROUGH BREEZE wasnít seen to best effect when last seen on Polytrack, held up at the back in a steadily-run 1m2f contest, and she is of interest again now she returns to this surface (Lingfield 5.45). That was the second time in a row on Polytrack sheíd been inconvenienced by a steady gallop, but she had produced a string of good efforts on the surface during the early months of this year, winning three times at Kempton in February. Thereís a case for suggesting that her form there reads better than her Lingfield form, and she has to prove sheís still in the same type of form as she was earlier in the year (never landed a blow back on turf last time), but she should get a decent pace to aim at with Fulney in the line-up and sheís still fairly handicapped on her best form. 1pt win FLAMBOROUGH BREEZE (12-1 Boylesports, 11-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/10/2013 Dana's Present G. Baker CosgraveP LNGA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"DANAíS PRESENT is a strong traveller on Polytrack and after shaping well on turf lately, he still looks fairly treated back on what is probably his ideal surface at Lingfield today (5.10). He was really progressive last winter, winning at Kempton without coming off the bridle and following up in cosy style at Wolverhampton, and he shaped better than the result on his reappearance following a six-month break over todayís course and distance, travelling strongly as usual and coming with a strong run up the far rail that only petered out in the final 100 yards, the run possibly just needed. He ran poorly on his next two starts, but has generally been in good form since, winning at Chepstow and a charity race at Doncaster last time. Heís still fairly treated and the presence of Scottish Lake and Perfect Mission should ensure a decent gallop. 1pt win DANAíS PRESENT (8-1 Stan James, 7-1 BetVictor, Ladbrokes, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
16/10/2013 Winterlude C. Appleby BarzalonaM LNGA 12 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"WINTERLUDE was one of my eyecatchers when running away with a Wolverhampton maiden in July, and although he has to give weight away to a number of really progressive horses in a fascinating 1m4f handicap at Lingfield (4.05), such was the impression he made that day that he has to be of interest now he returns to Polytrack. After needing to be ridden along turning for home in a race not run at a strong gallop, the manner in which he pulled well clear of the favourite in the final furlong at Wolverhampton was most impressive, suggesting he would be even better over todayís distance. He confirmed that promise when winning a competitive turf handicap at Doncaster next time, but was always going to be of more interest when returned to Polytrack; his latest flop on softish ground is probably best ignored, as the progeny of his sire Street Cry often donít handle that sort of ground and Winterlude himself had previously run poorly on similar ground when a shortish price on his second career start, whilst itís worth noting that Godolphin have a 32% strike rate with the progeny of Street Cry on the all-weather (18-56). This race is full of interesting types, but back on Polytrack Winterlude is as interesting as any of them. 1pt win WINTERLUDE (11-1 Stan James, 10-1 William Hill, 9-1 general)"


Notes:-
Supp 6/1 oc ][ 2 x NR = ***Check R4 = ATR List has win as 10



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/10/2013 Heska M. R. Channon FanningJ KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"The 1m nursery at Kempton today (5.50) is full of lightly-raced, potentially progressive horses, but itís the most exposed horse in the field that interests me. HESKA looked ordinary on his first three starts on turf, but he has improved plenty since being tried on Polytrack, especially on his latest start. He probably wasnít suited by the steady gallop on his first start on this surface, though not beaten far in fourth, but shaped much better off a stronger pace when giving the 78-rated Istimraar a race last week, the front pair pulling a long way clear of some horses from powerful yards. The time was quicker than that recorded earlier on the card by Hedge End, who had won a Kempton nursery by five lengths on his previous start, and although Heska is clearly vulnerable to the potential improvers in the field, he makes each-way appeal as a repeat of his latest run would set a fair standard. 1pt each-way HESKA (20/1 General, 25/1 Stan James*, Boylesports*)"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 1pt EW = 2pts Bet ][ 4th of 7 with 1 x NR ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
17/10/2013 Compton Bird H. H. Adielsson HaynesJ5 BTON 9.9 S

HT Selection Text:-

"At Brighton (3.40) COMPTON BIRD is probably worth sticking with in the 1m2f handicap. She has a big weight to carry and the ground is probably going to be softer than it was when she won last week over course and distance, but she was well in command in the final furlong that day once she got a clear passage, and this doesnít look any more competitive (indeed, itís a 0-60 event rather than a 0-65). She seems well suited by a big field and a decent pace, and providing the ground doesnít prove too soft for her (was good to soft last week), she should again take plenty of beating. Aminah is an interesting one at bigger prices having run really well on her previous start on softish ground at Leicester, but she finished tamely at Southwell last time and needs to bounce back from that. 1pt win COMPTON BIRD (11/2 Boylesports,* Stan James,* 5-1 general with other Best Odds Gauranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/10/2013 Poppy Bond A. Bailey ClarkT5 WTON 9.5 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"There are a couple of horses I like running at Wolverhampton this evening, POPPY BOND (7.30) and LOGANS LAD (9.00), and the suggestion is a win bet on each and an each-way double, as both will be very hard to keep out of the frame if repeating their latest effort. Poppy Bond was the subject of a gamble on just her second start for Alan Bailey, but was unlucky to run into a much-improved Irish raider. Still, her effort to finish second in a good time (much the quickest of the three course and distance races that day) reads well in this context and sheís only a pound higher here. Logans Lad is a similar scenario, another who shaped well on his second start for a new trainer, this time John Stimpson, again running into a potentially well-handicapped horse but running a really good race to finish second having had to weave his way through. He has the in-from Arabian Flight to beat, and sheíll be a tough nut to crack if in the same form as at Kempton on her last two starts, but sheís 0-11 here at Wolverhampton. 1pt win POPPY BOND (3-1 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
***NOTE 1pt Win but also in a 1pt EW Double (2pts & a separate Record) ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/10/2013 Logans Lad J. T. Stimpson KellySW WTON 7.1 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"There are a couple of horses I like running at Wolverhampton this evening, POPPY BOND (7.30) and LOGANS LAD (9.00), and the suggestion is a win bet on each and an each-way double, as both will be very hard to keep out of the frame if repeating their latest effort. Poppy Bond was the subject of a gamble on just her second start for Alan Bailey, but was unlucky to run into a much-improved Irish raider. Still, her effort to finish second in a good time (much the quickest of the three course and distance races that day) reads well in this context and sheís only a pound higher here. Logans Lad is a similar scenario, another who shaped well on his second start for a new trainer, this time John Stimpson, again running into a potentially well-handicapped horse but running a really good race to finish second having had to weave his way through. He has the in-from Arabian Flight to beat, and sheíll be a tough nut to crack if in the same form as at Kempton on her last two starts, but sheís 0-11 here at Wolverhampton. 1pt win LOGANS LAD (11-4 Paddy Power, 5-2 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
***NOTE 1pt Win but also in a 1pt EW Double (2pts & a separate Record) ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
18/10/2013 Poppy B/Logans Lad WTON STD

HT Selection Text:-

"There are a couple of horses I like running at Wolverhampton this evening, POPPY BOND (7.30) and LOGANS LAD (9.00), and the suggestion is a win bet on each and an each-way double, as both will be very hard to keep out of the frame if repeating their latest effort. Poppy Bond was the subject of a gamble on just her second start for Alan Bailey, but was unlucky to run into a much-improved Irish raider. Still, her effort to finish second in a good time (much the quickest of the three course and distance races that day) reads well in this context and sheís only a pound higher here. Logans Lad is a similar scenario, another who shaped well on his second start for a new trainer, this time John Stimpson, again running into a potentially well-handicapped horse but running a really good race to finish second having had to weave his way through. He has the in-from Arabian Flight to beat, and sheíll be a tough nut to crack if in the same form as at Kempton on her last two starts, but sheís 0-11 here at Wolverhampton. 1pt win LOGANS LAD (11-4 Paddy Power, 5-2 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
***NOTE 1pt Win but also in a 1pt EW Double (2pts & this a separate Record to record the EW Double) ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/10/2013 Harris Tweed W. J. Haggas BakerG ASCT 16 S

HT Selection Text:-

"HARRIS TWEED has been a revelation in cheekpieces on his last two starts, and providing he isnít taken on up front he might again prove hard to pass in the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (1.45). He has to prove his stamina for this trip, but with Johnny Murtagh stating that he intends riding Royal Diamond Ė his most likely rival for the early lead on paper - more conservatively today, George Baker might again enjoy an untroubled lead, and he could be hard to pass up the relatively short straight here. He relishes soft ground when on song, and his recent victory over Mount Athos looks all the better following the excellent subsequent efforts of the well-beaten third and fourth horses, Tac De Boistron and Camborne. 1pt win HARRIS TWEED (9/1 Ladbrokes*, Bet365*, Boylesports* Stan James*)"


Notes:-
HTweed headon on the line and beaten a Nose after getting the Easy Lead the Selection part based on ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
19/10/2013 Belle De Crecy J. P. Murtagh MurtaghJP ASCT 12 S

HT Selection Text:-

"In the Qipco British Champions Mares and Fillies Stakes (2.55) BELLE DE CRECY might be able to spring a surprise. Always well regarded by connections, she produced a career-best effort when winning a Group Two event last time, and prior to that win trainer/jockey Johnny Murtagh felt that she would be better on softer ground. Some felt that she very much had the run of the race that day, but she tracked what wasnít a bad pace set by Shirocco Star, who eventually finished tailed off, and the time looked solid. Moreover, there arenít many obvious prominent runners barring possibly German raider Nymphea in this race, and there might be further improvement to come from Belle De Crecy at 1m4f (her half-sister The Miniver Rose won the Park Hill Stakes over the St Leger distance). 1pt win BELLE DE CRECY (14/1 Boylesports*, Bet Victor*, 12/1 Ladbrokes*, Coral*, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/10/2013 West Coast Dream R. Brotherton CoumbeM BATH 5.7 S

HT Selection Text:-

"WEST COAST DREAM doesn't have the most consistent of profiles, but he has several very good bits of form on testing ground and he might be able to bounce back to form off what is starting to look a very tempting mark in the second division of the extended 5f handicap at Bath (4.45). The last time he encountered really soft ground he was contesting a 0-105 handicap at Haydock just over a year ago, and although his form this year has been in-and-out, he is taking a significant drop in class here. He has been mostly kept to a bare 5f in this country, but he won a 6f handicap on heavy ground when trained in Ireland so this trip shouldn't be a problem. 1pt win 1pt win WEST COAST DREAM (12-1 general - use *BOG firms )"


Notes:-
Last Four Races on Card Abandoned after Heavy rain and flooding in the Jockeys' room. Bath apparently is NOT on the main sewerage system so has a large sceptic tank. The reports suggesting that surface water is allowed to drain into the sceptic tank which meant the tank flooded because of the heavy rain and the content of the sewerage tank floating around. That CANNOT be how it's supposed work, surely. Why can't the rain water drain somewhere else or be collected in a reservoir on the course? ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
20/10/2013 Takeitfromalady L. A. Carter BrownT3 WDSR 10 HV

HT Selection Text:-

"Aldwick Bay has understandably already been heavily backed for the 1m2f handicap at Windsor today (4.30), no surprise given his excellent course form when the mud is flying. It wonít be a surprise if he bolts up with conditions back in his favour, but itís hard to say heís overpriced this morning given that how he reacts to first-time blinkers has to be taken on trust. At a much bigger price TAKEITFROMALADY has decent claims. The key to him on turf appears to be desperate ground, which he should certainly get here with the going already heavy and further rain forecast, and his form in the mud at this track reads very well. He beat Fire Ship over a mile here in May last year, which looks a remarkable effort given the runner-up bolted up by 8 lengths over course and distance on rain-softened ground off a 7lb higher mark later that season, and is now rated 107 after winning a French Group Three event on softish ground this year. Takeitfromaladyís other run in the mud here saw him win another mile handicap with more in hand than the bare margin after having to wait for a clear run. That last win came off a mark of 82, but he now finds herself racing off 75 with top-class 3lb claimer Thomas Brown booked, having not had his ground on too many recent occasions (raced freely and didnít appear to get home having travelled well over 1m4f in the mud at Chepstow three outings ago). Heís by no means the only horse in the race that likes plenty of cut in the ground, but given Takeitfromaladyís best efforts have come when the ground has been really testing, he looks overpriced here. 1pt win TAKEITFROMALADY (11-1 Betfred, Stan James, Totesport, 10-1 Coral)"


Notes:-
Drift 5/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
21/10/2013 Tawseef R. Brotherton HamiltonJ WDSR 11.6 HV

HT Selection Text:-

"In the closing extended 1m3f amateur ridersí handicap at Windsor (5.30) TAWSEEF should have conditions in his favour. He has raced five times in handicaps on ground described as soft or heavy by Timeform, and his form figures in those races read 12121. He didnít shape too badly on ground faster than ideal at Haydock last time on his second run back from a short break, but he should be much better suited by underfoot conditions today, and his amateur rider (who rode the 100-1 winner of the Fox Hunters at Aintree earlier this year) has generally created a positive impression. 1pt win TAWSEEF (9-1 William Hill, 8-1 general)"


Notes:-
Drift 5/1 oc ][ Male only Amateurs' Race ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/10/2013 Super Cookie P. J. McBride CarsonW KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"SUPER COOKIE has untapped potential on Polytrack, and after shaping much better than the bare result at Newmarket last time, she looks interesting now that she reverts to a mile at Kempton this evening (7.10). She twice shaped really well at Wolverhampton last year, travelling strongly but giving the impression the 1m141y trip was just a shade too far for her at that stage of her career. She made her reappearance over 1m3f at Kempton, but not much went right for her, keen during the early stages off the steady pace, also slightly hampered at one stage, but making good progress down the outside up the straight until either lack of stamina or fitness, or a combination of both, saw her run peter out, still finishing a creditable fifth. She won at Yarmouth in July, and the form of that defeat of Odeliz and Elhaame has worked out exceptionally well, though her win did owe plenty to a very enterprising front-running ride. Her two latest efforts on turf have been similar in that after travelling strongly for a long way she weakened significantly and lost many places in the closing stages, but her latest effort at Newmarket over 1m2f was notably promising, travelling strongly as usual and shaping like the second-best horse at the weights behind the runaway winner Nautilus until fading inside the final furlong. The return to 1m should suit, and her strong-travelling style suggests this surface is made for her, so she looks overpriced here. 1pt win SUPER COOKIE (16-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
22/10/2013 Oh So Sassy C. F. Wall BakerG LNGA 5 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Lingfield (4.30) OH SO SASSY was so impressive on her Polytrack debut at Kempton last time that she has to remain of interest despite her 13lb rise. Having failed to land a gamble on her handicap debut on her previous start, she was again well backed at Kempton, but this time was in complete control from some way out, her rider barely doing more than nudging her out in the straight. She still recorded the second-fastest time of the year over course and distance, and the fastest-ever time over course and distance in a class 6 handicap. Despite her big rise in the weights, sheís still potentially well-handicapped Ė she could have won by six or seven lengths at Kempton, and that would represent far more than 13lb at 5f on Polytrack Ė and although itís a minor streak that Chris Wallís hot streak from last month has (quite naturally) cooled, there must be every chance sheís much better than this class 5 opposition as well as the class 6 opponents she trounced last time. 1pt win OH SO SASSY (5-2 bet365, 9-4 Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power*)"


Notes:-
Drift 5/2 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
23/10/2013 Woolston Ferry H. Candy DweeneyD KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"WOOLSTON FERRY has been largely campaigned on turf since joining Henry Candy, but he has always seemed a bit better on Polytrack and he looks overpriced on what will be just his third start on this surface for his current yard (Kempton 7.50). He had seemed thoroughly exposed when joining Candy prior to the 2012 season, but he won readily on Polytrack on his first start for the yard, and continued his resurgence on turf thereafter. He struggled during the early stages of this season, but bounced back to form returned to Polytrack over 1m2f here two outings ago, failing only narrowly to catch Exclusive Waters (who ran well next time under a penalty). He ran moderately at Bath last time, but if he bounces back to the form of either of his previous Polytrack runs for his current stable, heís entitled to go close here, despite being fully exposed, and all seven of his career wins prior to joining his current yard had come on this surface. 1pt win WOOLSTON FERRY (14-1 Skybet, Stan James, 12-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
23/10/2013 Never To Be J. H. M. Gosden BuickW KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Bold Lass is all the rage in the 7f nursery at Kempton, and certainly it wonít be a surprise if she turns out to be extremely well handicapped off what looks a lenient opening mark, but NEVER TO BE (8.20) might be very well treated too and is a bigger price. After showing a little promise on his debut at Newmarket, he overcame Lingfieldís strong draw bias to win on his second start, racing four wide throughout and value for more than the bare margin. The two rivals that raced on similar parts of the track that day, third-placed Jellyfish and fourth-placed Photography, have both won handicaps since, off marks of 74 and 71 respectively, so there are grounds for thinking that Never To Be, who was always a shade wider than that pair and finished three lengths in front of them, is potentially very well handicapped off 74. He couldnít take advantage of that mark at Goodwood last time following a ten-week break, but that was on very bad ground, and this US-bred might well find todayís surface much more to his liking (his sire Thewayyouare has already produced one very promising Polytrack performer from his first crop in Toast Of New York). Basil Berry, who will be much better suited by this trip than the 5f he raced over last time, is another to consider at bigger odds. 1pt win NEVER TO BE (7-1 BetVictor, Stan James, William Hill*)"


Notes:-
***Note this as an OUTSTANDING example of PED waffle, = Trying to assign FSS Thewayyouare as a Polytrack sire on basis of one other winner. Lots of other reasons that you could assign to that woin and NTB win here....



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
23/10/2013 Be Royale M. Appleby MullenA KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"BE ROYALE is a 45-rated horse in a 0-55 classified event, but there are still reasons for thinking she has a better chance in Kemptonís closing race (9.20) than official figures would suggest. She didnít show much in three starts as a 2yo last year, but she has since switched to Michael Appleby, and there have been definite signs of ability in her two starts for her talented new trainer despite the distance she has been beaten. On her first start for her current yard she had to wait for a run in a 1m maiden at Pontefract, and although she was no match for the runaway winner, she pulled clear of the remainder along with a horse who has since won off a mark of 65. She then appeared to have an obvious chance on her handicap debut, but after coming with a threatening-looking run early in the straight, she faded badly, presumably unable to pick up on the soft ground. She shaped as if she was no lost cause for a long way, however, and she has had a couple more months at the Appleby academy since. Moreover, her sire Byron, whose progeny donít have the best of records on soft/heavy ground (around 5% strike rate), tend to go very well on Polytrack (around 13%). 1pt win BE ROYALE (10-1 BetVictor, 9-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/10/2013 Benoni H. Candy O'NeillD WTON 7.1 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"BENONI shaped really well on his Polytrack debut two outings ago and, providing he settles, he should be hard to beat over the same course and distance at Wolverhampton this evening (7.10). He took to the new surface really well on that first run here, over-racing in fact, and he then encountered trouble in running on the inside that caused him to lose momentum. In the circumstances he did well to finish second to Glanely, who enjoyed the run of the race having been held up off a decent gallop. The winner caught the eye at Newbury next time in a race where Benoni, who reopposed him, raced too keenly and probably found the ground too soft, and the third, Fossa, won easily next time over the same course and distance off the same mark. A couple of his rivals tend to race prominently, and as long as he doesnít spoil his chance by pulling too hard, Benoni can confirm himself an improved performer on the surface. 1pt win BENONI (5-2 Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Stan James*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG

HT Selection Text:-

""


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
" Op 6/4 oc ][ GNG UK CD "FR" PC

HT Selection Text:-

""


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
24/10/2013 Taxiformissbyron HerringtomM HanaganP WTON 8.6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"TAXIFORMISSBYRON looks a bit overpriced in the extended mile filliesí handicap at Wolverhampton (8.10). She chased a pace that was stronger than ideal in a Kempton claimer last week, and in the circumstances did quite well to battle on into fourth place. The time was good though, and the two horses that disputed the lead both finished well beaten, and it underlined the fact that Taxiformissbyron is a much better performer on Polytrack than turf, rattling off a hat-trick earlier this year once she was stepped up to a mile on this surface. Sheís more exposed than some of her rivals here, and probably vulnerable to an improver, but sheís entitled to be thereabouts on her form on this surface. 1pt win TAXIFORMISSBYRON (10-1 Coral, 9-1 general)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
25/10/2013 Belayer K. A. Ryan EavesT DONC 8 GSS

HT Selection Text:-

"Doncaster has had plenty of rain this morning, and that might play into the hands of BELAYER in the opening nursery (1.40). He did well to make a winning debut over 5f at Beverley in July, and after seeming unsuited by either the track or ground or both at Goodwood next time, he didn't shape at all badly behind a couple of well-handicapped horses last time at Haydock over 6f, staying on steadily into third place. He shaped as if a step up in trip would be in his favour that day the ground could be the key to him. He is by Whipper, who acted very well on testing ground, and his progeny are tending to follow suit, with a strike rate of around 23% when the going is testing, compared with an overall strike rate of under 13%, and on this type of going he has recorded 32 winners when the SPs cumulatively suggested he should have less than 20. Belayer's action suggests he might be suited by testing ground and he might be able to show improved form on what will be just his fourth career start. 1pt win BELAYER (12/1 Boylesports, Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power) (14/1 Bet Victor*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
25/10/2013 Lancelot Du Lac D. K. Ivory WinstonR DONC 6 GSS

HT Selection Text:-

"LANCELOT DU LAC gave the impression he won with much more in hand than the bare margin at York last time, and as a result he remains on a favourable mark in what is admittedly a really competitive 6f handicap at Doncaster today (3.10). He travelled much the best on his latest start, but was produced with his challenge more towards the far side and edged across towards the far rail, ending up a long way from his rivals. He still won cosily, however, remains unexposed at sprint distances after just two starts over 6f, and heís potentially well drawn here, whilst testing ground shouldnít be a problem judged on the way he travelled over 7f as a 2yo when runner-up at York. 1pt win LANCELOT DU LAC (5/1 bet365, Boylesports, Coral, Paddy Power*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
26/10/2013 Cordite M. Appleby MullenA NWBY 7 HV

HT Selection Text:-

"It's surely only a matter of time before Michael Appleby has a really top-notch horse, and CORDITE makes each-way appeal in the Horris Hill Stakes at Newbury today (2.20). He improved massively on his previous efforts over 5f when winning a 7f Leicester maiden by a wide margin on testing ground last time, the time the fastest of the four races run that day. Official figures suggest he has little chance at this level, but I suspect the form of that race has been underrated by the handicapper, and whilst he needs to improve again, this is likely to turn into a bit of a slog and he gives the impression he will be well suited by that type of test. 1pt each way CORDITE (14-1 Coral, 12-1 Bet365,Betvictor *BOG 1/4 Odds first 3)"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 1pt EW = 2pt bet ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
26/10/2013 Conserve J. Cecil QueallyTP WTON 9.5 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"There's a cracking all-weather card at Wolverhampton this evening, with plenty of good-quality handicaps, and the bet of the card might be CONSERVE in the fillies' handicap (8.45). She didn't really seem suited by the track at Chester last time, but prior to that had twice run well here, in particular two outings ago. She chased home Ostaad, who rather slipped the field, that day, but pulled well clear of Duchess Of Seville, who went on to win a maiden by eight lengths in a good time at the same track on her next start. Conserve looks very well handicapped on her return to Wolverhampton and a repeat of her previous run here would see her hard to beat. 1pt win CONSERVE (4-1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
3 x NRS and 1 x 20/1 WD ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
26/10/2013 My Freedom S. B. Suroor SousaSD WTON 7.1 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"MY FREEDOM has to be of interest with plenty seemingly in his favour. He has raced only once on Polytrack, winning a class 3 event at Lingfield in tremendous style despite not being ideally suited by the run of the race, also recording a good time. Moreover, he has an excellent record when fresh; he returns from a 105-day absence here, and his form figures when he has not raced within the last 100 days (including his debut) read 12101, the only blip coming on very testing ground. He's only 6lb higher than for his Lingfield win here and this looks his surface (was also better than the bare result on his sole start on Tapeta earlier this year, when he had had a recent run); there looks to be a fair amount of pace on her so his high draw shouldn't prove an insurmountable problem. 1pt win MY FREEDOM (13-2 Betvictor, William Hill - *BOG )"


Notes:-
Supp 7/2 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
03/11/2013 Mister D BewleyG BewleyJ7 CARL 19.5 HV

HT Selection Text:-

"MISTER D might be able to go well at decent odds in the extended 2m3f handicap hurdle at Carlisle today (3.10). He was beaten a long way in the end in two starts in novice hurdles for his current yard, but on each occasion he went well for a long way before fading, shaping on his latest start over the extended 2m6f at Kelso as if today's drop in trip might suit. He clearly needs to improve on the bare form, but he's lightly raced and gives the impression he might have the ability to cope with what, on the face of it, looks like a stiffish opening mark. It's an obvious concern that his stable haven't had a winner since January, but there have been only 36 runners during that period and most of them haven't had much 1pt win MISTER D (7-1 general - use *BOG firms )chance."


Notes:-
HT back after a week off, presumably Half Term in the South ][ 13 runners declared but 7 x NR and Mister D last of 6. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
04/11/2013 Here Now And Why JardineI LeeG WTON 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"HERE NOW AND WHY looks interesting back up at 6f on his return to Polytrack at Wolverhampton this afternoon (2.15). He has been running consistently well without winning over 5f on turf lately, but often shapes as if 6f suits him better these days. Moreover, his runs on Polytrack last season suggested heís well worth persevering with on this surface; he travelled extremely well on all three starts here last winter, probably paying the price for pulling too hard during the early stages on the first occasion, but making no mistake on his next start over todayís course and distance, the only horse on the bridle from some way out and leading close to the line having had to be switched for a run. He again shaped very well on his only subsequent Polytrack run dropped to 5f, again travelling very well but forced extremely wide throughout, doing well to finish a close second. He was drawn 12 of 13, 11 of 12 and 13 of 13 on those three starts so his draw today (8 of 13) if anything looks a bonus, especially with his main market rival Hot Sugar drawn widest of all; heíll need to settle back on this surface, but if heís in the same form today as when last seen on this surface, heíll go very close. 1pt win HERE NOW AND WHY (11-2 BetVictor, William Hill*, 5-1 general with Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/11/2013 Silly Billy B Ellison PickardP SWEL 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"On the face of it, SILLY BILLY faces a stiff task at Southwell today (1.40), racing off 65 having been beaten off a 10lb lower mark the last time he ran at this track (also beaten off an 8lb lower mark on turf last time), but there are a couple of reasons for thinking he has a better chance than those figures suggest. He has shaped well on all three starts at this track, on a couple of occasions giving the strong impression he would have won or gone very close with stronger handling when ridden by apprentices, also doing well to win under another inexperienced 7lb claimer on the second of those Southwell runs. Moreover, those three good runs at Southwell came on the back of finishing 10th of 12, 10th of 12 again, and 6th of 7 respectively on Polytrack on his previous start, leaving the impression he might be a fair bit better on Fibresand. If that's the case, he'll be a danger to all even off his revised mark here, as he appears to be another horse to gain a new lease of life since joining Brian Ellison, winning readily at Wolverhampton two outings ago and again shaping well at Musselburgh last time. He has been with his current yard only three months and still has some scope in terms of handicapping, having won off a mark of 72 earlier in his career, so he looks interesting racing under a fully-fledged rider on Fibresand for the first time. 1pt win SILLY BILLY (6/1 BetVictor*, Stan James, 11/2 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-
Drift 5/2 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
05/11/2013 Fantasy Gladiator J. J. Quinn QuinnJ KTNA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"At Kempton (7.00) FANTASY GLADIATOR might be able to confirm the promise of his course and distance effort two outings ago. He's not completely straightforward and needed plenty of encouragement at the start that day, but he very much caught the eye in the closing stages, finishing strongly into second off what had not been a very strong pace. He shaped as if still in good form at Nottingham last time, albeit with an awkward head carriage, but if he is in the same mood as for his last run here and gets a decent gallop to aim at, he might be able to take advantage of a fair mark on this surface. 1pt win FANTASY GLADIATOR (11/1 Bet Fred*, bet365*, 10/1 general - use *BOG firms)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/11/2013 Queenie's Home J. G. Given QueallyTP LNGA 7 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"QUEENIEíS HOME will be suited by the return to 7f and, having run very well on her sole start on Polytrack, she looks overpriced in the 7f nursery at Lingfield today (1.50). She showed much-improved form on her third career start when leading until well inside the final furlong in a decent Kempton maiden (first three home now rated 87, 80 and 91 respectively), and the horse that disputed the lead with her finished tailed off, but won a maiden next time. Having had excuses at Doncaster two outings ago (lost a shoe at the start), she shaped as if some way ahead of what is admittedly a lower turf mark at Redcar over a mile, last off the bridle by some way and looking all over the winner when skipping a couple of lengths clear at the furlong pole before fading inside the final 100 yards, shaping like a non-stayer. Back at 7f, and at a track where the progeny of her sire have a strike rate of around 20% (indeed, Shamardalís strike rate at all the AW tracks is higher than his overall turf %), she can go well at decent odds; the concerns are her stableís patchy form and the fact that sheís rated considerably higher on this surface, but her odds are enough to outweigh those concerns. 1pt win QUEENIEíS HOME (20-1 BetVictor, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Skybet)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
07/11/2013 Super Say M. Appleby MullenA WTON 9.5 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"In the feature event at Wolverhampton (7.20) SUPER SAY has his first start on the all-weather since joining Mick Appleby off a career-low mark. He has often shaped as if well suited by this surface, third beaten less than a length in a Listed event in Ireland a couple of years ago, and runner-up off marks of 88 and 90 at Dundalk and Lingfield last winter. His form since joining his current yard has been a bit up and down (reportedly had breathing problem at Pontefract in June), but heís only 3lb higher than when winning at Warwick three outings ago and travelled as if in good form there last time, probably compromising his finishing effort by racing too keenly during the early stages. Heís not guaranteed to give his running, but heís potentially very well handicapped off a mark of 84 (even though 2lb out of the handicap) if he does and he looks worth chancing at his current prices. 1pt win SUPER SAY (14-1 BetVictor, Paddy Power*, 12-1 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed firms)"


Notes:-
Drift 16/1 oc ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
08/11/2013 Random Success R. Charlton LaneM WTON 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"Tonightís card at Wolverhampton looks tough in terms of betting opportunities, but there are reasons to think it might be worth chancing RANDOM SUCCESS in the 6f maiden (4.45). She finished well beaten in fourth on her debut at Leicester in July, but having pulled very hard during the early stages, she looked likeliest to chase the odds-on winner home approaching the 2f pole before her earlier exertions, and possibly lack of peak fitness, saw her fade in the closing stages. She hasnít been seen since then, but itís worth noting how much better Roger Charltonís horses tend to fare on their second start (22.5% strike rate over the last 5 years) than on their debut (9%), with the likes of Al Kazeem, Thistle Bird and Mince all finishing unplaced on their racecourse debut. Random Success is fitted with a hood this time, which hopefully will help her settle, and her pedigree gives every encouragement that there might be better to come; her sire Shamardal has an excellent record on all the UK all-weather tracks (strike rate of 19.4% on Polytrack compared with 13% on turf), and Random Success is a half-sister to Listed-placed 2yo Anticipated and fair sprint handicapper Midnight Rider. The stable is in good form and connections will be keen to get a win out of Random Success (Anticipated sold for 65,000gns at last weekís Tattersalls Horses In Training Sales); if she settles better in the hood, she might be able to leave her debut form some way behind. 1pt win RANDOM SUCCESS (9-1 BetVictor, Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/11/2013 Lahaag J. H. M. Gosden HanaganP DONC 12 S

HT Selection Text:-

"Class 2 handicaps are amongst the toughest in which to acquire a good strike rate, because they are almost invariably extremely competitive, usually have good-sized fields, and are largely contested by exposed, if classy, horses these days. With that in mind, John Gosdenís record in class 2 handicaps at Doncaster in recent years is nothing short of remarkable. Since the track reopened in 2007 Gosdenís record in class 2 handicaps is 10 winners from 30 runners, a remarkable strike rate given that the average field size in those races has been just under 16. Gosden has run only five horses in the November Handicap since 1996, but those five runners have produced three winners at 17-2, 10-1 and 8-1, and he also won the race in 1991 and 1992. He no longer has the recently-sold Thomas Hobson to represent him, but LAHAAG looks a more than able deputy and might be the one to beat in Saturdayís big race. He did well to win at York last time having been held up in a steadily-run race, even if his form over shorter might have made him better suited to that sort of test than some of his rivals, and he remains feasibly handicapped, whilst he has shaped well on most of his starts on softish ground. His stable mate Aiken would be thrown in on his best form but has been a long way below form this season, so Lahaag looks Gosdenís main hope. 1pt win LAHAAG (8-1 Betfred, Coral, Stan James, Totesport, William Hill)"


Notes:-
*** Note this an AntePost Selction put up the day before the race. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
09/11/2013 Making Eyes H. B. R. Palmer DwyerM DONC 10 S

HT Selection Text:-

"MAKING EYES is penalised in the 1m2f Listed event at Doncaster (3.00), but she shaped as if better than ever last time and will love the ground, so she should give a good account again. She won a Listed event at Newcastle three outings ago, travelling best, and probably wasn't suited by the steady early pace in France next time. She produced a career-best effort against the colts in a really competitive Listed event at Goodwood last time, travelling best for much of the race and possibly paying the price late on for chasing the strong pace set by Brown Panther. The next four horses home that day were all colts rated 109 or more, whereas today's field has two 102-rated fillies with everything else in the field rated under 100; this represents a significant drop in class, and Making Eyes might be able to take advantage. 1pt win MAKING EYES (12-1 general - use *BOG firms )"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
10/11/2013 Wily Fox J. M. P. Eustace EdgarK MRAS 19 S

HT Selection Text:-

"WILY FOX looks to have plenty in his favour in the conditional jockeys'/amateur riders' handicap hurdle at Market Rasen this afternoon (3.50). He was a well-backed winner over this course and distance under a big weight in a similar event (albeit not a hands-and-heels contest) in March on soft ground, five lengths clear with a furlong to go before being closed down at the finish, and the form of his previous run at Taunton (in a hands-and-heels event) worked out quite well. He will be partnered today by Kieron Edgar, who looks a shrewd booking; this race is restricted to riders who had not ridden more than 10 winners prior to August 14th, at which point Edgar had ridden 9 (he has now ridden 12 in all and most of his mounts have come for the powerful David Pipe stable). He ran a satisfactory race on the Flat on his return from a break and a repeat of his previous course-and-distance effort would see him go close here. 1pt win WILY FOX (13-2 Paddy Power *BOG, 6-1 general - use *BOG firms )"


Notes:-
***NOTE 5p Rule 4 deduction. ][ Worth recording something that has struck me over last 2-3 months. This HT's first winner in a long while after poor run, holiday, poor run and the ATR Home page has it noted alongside his picture and a pointer to his two selections for the day. NOT ONCE have they ever put in the same space two more losers yesterday.. or similar. Which means some hugely Invalid Cherry-Picking is going on. ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/11/2013 Souville C. F. Wall SandersS KTNA 6 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"SOUVILLE looks interesting returned to 6f in the nursery at Kempton today (3.50) despite the fact that her sire is Dalakhani. A 50,000gns purchase at the breeze-up sales, she shaped very well on her debut at Haydock in July, travelling smoothly and staying on nicely, but she proved too excitable next time at Pontefract, playing up on the way to post and then too keen from her wide draw before completely failing to handle the bend. Her next effort at Yarmouth with a hood fitted was much better, leading for a long way and by no means disgraced in fourth behind subsequent Rockfel Stakes winner Al Thakira and Expect, who was an impressive winner next time. It was an interesting decision to run her in a warm 7f maiden here next time given she had been allotted a mark, but she shaped very well, again racing very keenly but travelling as well as any approaching the cutaway before fading significantly in the final furlong. She shaped as if a strongly-run race would suit that day and there are a few horses that tend to race prominently in todayís field, which should help her settle; her trainer Chris Wall has a very good record with handicap debutants (13-75, 17.3%, 42.25 points profit, and an actual over expected figure of 1.2 over the last five years) whilst his handicappers at Kempton are always worth a second glance (20-98, 20.4%, 37 points profit, actual over expected of 1.37). 2pts win SOUVILLE (14-1 general)"


Notes:-
***NOTE = 2pts Win ][ Selection Angle feels really to just be trying to identify a WallCF hcap improver (like Posh Boy). ][ Supp 7/1 ][



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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
11/11/2013 Catch The Cider H. H. Adielsson HaynesJD5 KTNA 8 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"CATCH THE CIDER never looked like landing a huge gamble last time, but 7f was probably an inadequate trip and he might be able to get off the mark returned to a mile (3.20). He had shown promise on a couple of occasions in maidens, shaping very well on his debut as a 2yo and also much better than the distance beaten here more than once, and he wasnít helped by the run of the race last time, held up off a steady pace and also making his challenge more towards the far side at a time when the centre to stands side seemed to be throwing up most of the winners, nevertheless staying on nicely in the final furlong. He has a good 5lb claimer booked and we many not yet have seen the best of Catch The Cider on this surface. 1pt win CATCH THE CIDER (6-1 Skybet*, 11-2 general with other Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY Course DIST GNG
12/11/2013 Echua ButterlyEM HarleyM WTON 12.2 STD

HT Selection Text:-

"The 1m4f handicap at Wolverhampton this evening (5.50) features two horses that look ahead of their mark, and I'm surprised at the price discrepancy between favourite Amantius and ECHUA. Amantius was a wide-margin and easy winner over course and distance in a good time last week, so it's no surprise he's a warm order, but that race was run at a strong gallop, which helped string the field out. He's likely to go well under a 6lb penalty, but Echua also shaped very well in second place when the subject of a big gamble at Kempton last week in a race that looks set to work out very well; that 2m contest was run at a steady pace, but three horses, all well backed before the race, pulled clear off the steady pace, and in the process the first two home completed the final 3f in a faster time than the 1m4f Listed race run half an hour later - that race also wasn't run at a true gallop, though the jockeys didn't really kick for home until well after the 3f pole. Still, I think the form of that 2m race is likely to work out well and running off the same mark Echua might be able to upset the favourite here, with the drop in trip unlikely to be a problem on the evidence of the Kempton run. 1pt win ECHUA (3-1 Bet Victor, bet365, Ladbrokes*)"


Notes:-




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DATE SELECTION TRAINER JOCKEY