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March 24th SUMMING UP
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In general terms as underwhelming a field for the Brocklesby as you could
imagine. What used to be a fascinating race with a big field and many runners
of potential has become a moderate to average maiden race which could be
run at any course in early season.
Spoof Master received a solid report from the sales but with the
note he was an early type and would lack scope to improve. His paddock
report from his debut last week confirmed this view and he has limited
scope to improve. He showed good professionalism on debut and battled quite
well against a bigger opponent in the straight. He comes out top on the
profile partly by default because of the lack of an obviously strong newcomer.
However, he is vulnerable to a solid newcomer with more size and build
than he has and would not be one to take a short price about.
The lottery involved in getting a run in the Conditions race he finished
second in has been shown up this year by the wins of Hephaestus and Bazroy
(both entries for that first race) in the two auction races that have followed.
Both put up superior performances to the winner of the conditions race
and would have made that event a better test had they run. The lesson to
learn is not to say '..Spoof Master finished second in a good race..' because
of it's title and classification. It was actually a moderate to average
early season race and we've already seen at least four horses who are better
than he is and it wouldn't be a surprise if there were at least one in
this race.
Of the others the trio of Everyman, Jojesse & Rouen
have the best prospects of providing a strong enough debut to meet the
challenge that Spoof Master can set. After three unplaced runs in the first
two races of the season it seemed that trainer PD Evans either did not
have his 2yos as ready as usual or we had only seen the moderate ones.
He then had a 5 length winner of the third race of the season yesterday
(with Bazroy) and said he knew that was his best 2yo by some way. Given
that he must know how Everyman compares the market is likely to be reasonably
informative although they tend not to be a betting stable in general.
MR. Channon has an average debut strike rate overall but has a 30% strike
rate in March in the period 2002-5. His only runner so far this season
won two days ago in a solid looking auction race (following in the footsteps
of Wovoka in 2005). However, the debut wins have tended to come in lesser
races with better types (i.e. they weren't primed to win but rather their
natural ability proved enough). His two runners in the Brocklesby in the
last four years have finished unplaced including a horse as good as Mac
Love.
But, this brings the point that this is not a normal, tough, Brocklesby
into sharper focus. The better of his two runners doesn't have the profile
to compete at the front of a 'Brocklesby' but ought to be capable of a
solid showing in this race. Rouen appears to be the better prospect
(although if you really want to double-think yourself into a difficult
choice consider Queen Of Fire's 50/1 debut win in 2005...).
Jojesse has a solid pedigree and ought to make a winner of some
sort in the season. He is the first 2yo runner for a new trainer so we
are short on clues as to how ready he will be. In general new trainers
like to make a good initial impression so he ought to be competent at least
. We have already seen one new trainer - TJ Pitt - make a good start with
his first 2yo runner (Fast Freddie) this year.
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RACE QUALITY:
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A brief recap of a 'normal' start to the season to emphasise how different
(not to say peculiar) the 2006 first week has been. The 2yo season used
to start on turf at Doncaster with the Brocklesby (this race) on the Thursday,
the Bawtry seller on the Friday and an Auction race (weight set by sales
price) on the Saturday. In 2003 Lingfield put a 2yo race on its 'Winter
Derby' card on the Saturday prior to Doncaster but the initial turf races
were the same.
With Doncaster closed the first two days of the meeting have gone to Lingfield's
AW. They run the Auction race on the Thursday and have made the Bawtry
a Class 6 Auction and run on the Friday. So the season has started with
three very similar races at Lingfield drawn from a very similar set of
entries for each of those races.
The Brocklesby has moved to the Saturday and run on the turf and has produced
a baffling set of entries. At just 13 the number of entries is less than
the usual number of runners and a number of 'regular' trainers are missing.
The entries are made to look more odd with four from MR Channon and two
from WGM Turner and only nine trainers represented and none who train north
of Doncaster.
The entries in general include a high number of owner breds of probable
moderate quality and the race standard does not look high. The two to stand
out on sales prices are Eager Lover (cost $20,000 at an American sale and
then sold for a much higher €120,000 at the Irish Goffs Million sales)
and Goose Green (at 37,000gns above the average level of 25-30,000 and
more expensive than any of the entries for the three previous Lingfield
AW races).
In general the race can produce a wide range of quality in winning performances
depending upon the strength of the field and their readiness on the day.
The entries and the general cold weather this spring suggest an average
level performance at best to win.
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TRAINERS:
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M Channon has four entries, two are by the minor second season sire
Hunting Lion (who he trained) out of mares that he usually trains the offspring
from. These two are Flying Lion (who he bred and still owned on entry day)
and Queen Of Narnia. The others are Goose Green (37,000 guineas) and Rouen
(foal 15,000gns) both for regular owners with the stable.
He has had a runner in the race in 2002 (Basserello 6th at 9/1 and then
transferred to race in France) and 2004 (Mac Love 6th at 9/1 and won his
fourth run on April 21st).
WGM Turner has two entries with the once raced Spoof Master and
the owner bred Lord Charles (for MS Teversham who name most of his runners
Lady or Lord). He regularly has a runner in the race with a recent record
of - won in 2002 with The Lord (for MS Teversham at 13/2), Gameset'n'match
17th at 8/1 in 2003 (never won a race), Westbrook Blue 3rd at 8/1 in 2004
(won STO) and Merchant Bankes 5th at 20/1 in 2005 (non winner at 2yo).
BW Hills has the expensively purchased Eager Lover in the entries.
He tends to choose his early season runners (before end April) well and
they are usually capable of an early season win at least. His last three
runners in this race have been Magic Trick in 2001 (22,000gns and 3rd at
10/1 and won STO on Apr 19th beating Redback), Farewell To Arms in 2003
(2nd at 7/1 and won STO on Apr 14th) & River Kintyre in 2005 (40,000gns,
4th at 10/1 and won STO on May 4th).
A number of trainers who have had entries and/or runners before are missing
including ES McMahon, K Burke, MJ Wallace, TD Easterby, P Blockley, B Meehan,
A Berry, JS Moore, J Gallagher, AD Smith & R Millman (who won the race
in 2005 with STO Phantom Whisper although he normally does not have a runner).
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SIRES:
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First Season Sires :-
Act One - Everyman.
Invincible Spirit - Goose Green & Spoof Master. He had two runners
in the first race of the season including Spoof Master.
Noverre - Rouen.
American sire More Than Ready has only had one previous 2yo runner
in Britain with the 6f Group 3 winner La Chunga (cost $270k as a 2yo) in
2005. He is represented here by Eager Lover.
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Spoof Master was rated 70 at the sales but with notes that he had
limited scope to develop and was a nervous type. He was paddock reviewed
at Lingfield on the 18th and was disappointing. He has not grown from the
sales and looked neat but limited by his size and with very little scope
to improve. He was still somewhat nervous in the pre-race but this did
not affect him in the race where he showed good professionalism.
Goose Green was rated 70 at the sales but a less neat type than
Spoof Master and probably not as 'ready'. He had a solid build and good
power behind but with a note to check his 'shape' at 2yo because he was
lengthy and short for his size and with a hint of a dip-back (the check
is to see has he levelled up correctly).
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