| March 30th |
The 2003-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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March 30th SUMMING UP
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The later date has made this an unusual race with five prevous runners
and two penalised winners.
The race is normally won by the best of the useful types who are ready
enough on debut.
The race normally has at least one useful+ type in who manage to win and
finish in front of the limited but ready types. Consider the last five
winners as Next Time Around (Dance Night second), Red Power, The Lord,
Shuffling Kid & Nearly A Fool.
Those that have run, including the winners have not looked up to the quality
of those Brocklesby winners and the question is whether their previous
runs will have lifted them high enough to beat the better types who will
be on debut.
Of those that have run it should be close between Danjet and Phantom Whisper
but it would be slightly disappointing if there were not a better prospect
in the field. The two obvious candidates are River Kintyre and Curtail
and given the first season sires start preference would just be for River
Kintyre.
There seems to be a long 'tail' of moderate types and on profile the first
6 or 7 places should concern those with previous good runs and the four
better rated runners on debut. Unless the race is draw affected or the
pace is too strong there are not any obvious candidates from those lower
ranked to provide a surprise.
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RACE QUALITY:
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Race used to be the first 2yo race of the season but in 2002 was displaced
by the ludicrously valuable Lingfield AW conditions race. With Easter and
course availability the race is now the 9th of the season and with more
scope for 2yos to have had a previous run.
The race can produce a relatively wide range of performances but usually
the winner will need to rate 75+. The race often includes runners that
develop to rate 90+ through the season who may not place because they run
for trainers who don't target debut wins (e.g. Justaquestion, Mac Love,
Romancero). However, class usually shows up in that the later winners usually
make the first 6 or 7. Odd later minor winners may be 'buried' in the stragglers.
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TRAINERS:
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BA McMahon retired in February 2005 and now assists his son ES McMahon
who has stables close by and will use the same gallops. Trainer used to
get runners ready early and had notable record at Doncaster Brocklesby
meeting between 97-2001. Runners have tended to be less ready 2002-4. Had
the winner of the Brocklesby in 2000-1, two runners finished unplaced in
2002 (6/1 & 15/2) including one later winner, one later winner finished
unplaced in 2003 at 10/1, in 2004 he had the 2nd (6/1) with a useful type
that liked soft ground. These early runners were often for owner J Fretwell.
How will his son prepare his first 2yo runner for this important owner?
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SIRES:
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First Season Sires with runners are Arkadian
Hero (Pertemps Heroine), Bertolini
(Royal Embrace), Mull Of Kintyre
(River Kintyre) & Observatory
(Merchant Bankes). |
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Bowland Boy (63) and Little Elver (60) were reviewed at the sales and both
were assessed to have below average chances of being competitive as 2yos
at their level.
Danjet (65), The London Gang (66) and Phantom Whisper (64) have been paddock
reviewed and this suggests they should be limited to being early winners
and lacking scope to develop from mid-season.
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