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March 26th SUMMING UP
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A lower quality race and not as informative as the normal early season
turf maidens at the course. Urban Warrior made his debut only 3
days ago at Lingfield and made a solid start without looking obviously
best suited by a fast 5f. A narrow type he twice appeared to be short of
pace - on the pick-up from the break and when the leader kicked clear on
the turn to the straight. On the plus side he stretched out quite well
in the last furlong to make ground on the faders and was going on at the
finish.
In a race with a real 5f sprinter he would be opposable but in this field
his experience may enable him to keep close enough to be able to pick up
the faster starters if needs be. At Lingfield he was behind the smaller
Sad
Times until approaching the final furlong and he will probably need
to overhaul her again.
The two runners with the most potential for the future - Gilded
& Granny Peel - have similar profiles. Both are by the new sire
Redback and his 2yos suitability to 5f is still unproven, neither is by
a mare that has produced a 5f winner although Gilded's dam was a useful
6f winning 2yo and finally both represent trainers who do not target strong
debuts.
Of the pair Granny Peel is most interesting on debut because of
her trainer's record. The 2yos he has chosen to run in March in the last
three seasons have all been winners in their year, two better types have
won on debut and another a good third (the other ran too freely in making
the pace and won well STO). With that background she clearly has the profile
to be a filly to follow. She also has the positive of being the trainer's
sole entry for the conditions race that started the season and it is unusual
for him to debut a 2yo in the south. Given that background if there are
positive 'words' for her on the day she would be interesting.
Gilded represents the major 2yo trainer and in general his debut
runners are poor value. He had just 6 FTO winners from 100 runners in 2005
and his early season debuts saw high class horses beaten. At the sales
she looked a solid 60s rater at least but is very likely to need the debut
to develop from unless she's above average, even in this relatively thin
race.
The other five, as a group, cost the sort of total a Sheikh could lose
down the back of the settee and not bother looking for. In a weakish race
and with imperfect profiles amongst the top three a surprise like Love
In May is just about possible. R. Millman must have a good 2yo somewhere
that can win on debut but Il Palio's profile doesn't suggest it's
him (his picture suggests another compact, stodgy type).
Sad Times will be professional so will get the most out of herself
but looks short on size and ability. Piccolo Prezzo & Diminuto
have some minor positives if you get the rose-tinteds out but look short
on quality.
In summary a race to watch more for the futures of Granny Peel & Gilded
to see what it tells them about them, their sire and their trainers. The
niggle about Urban Warrior's lack of basic pace makes him an unappealing
bet and if he got too short it would be worth looking for the each-way
alternative.
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RACE QUALITY:
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An auction race where the raceweights carried are set by the price the
runners cost at the sales. A low quality field even by Class 5 standards
and a lesser group on prices than for last week's Class 6 auction at Lingfield.
The unpenalised colts would carry 8-7 and the fillies 8-2 so it can be
seen that of the two colts Il Palio is the only one penalised and by only
a single pound. Three of the six fillies carry the bottom weight with two
selling for the minimum sales price of 800gns. In the context of the race
both Gilded (penalised 4lb for a 13,000gns price) and Granny Peel (3lb
for €12,500) are 'expensive' although lowish prices on the absolute
scale.
The early season maiden races at the course on turf in recent seasons at
the course have been of very mixed quality but with a good number of better
types, in particular from R. Hannon and M Channon. However, with this race
an auction and on the new AW course the link with previous races
is probably not strong
This race looks to be a lesser event and a rating in the low 60s would
be enough to win.
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TRAINERS:
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R Hannon - consistently has the most 2yo runners each season and
the consistent results each year reflect his quite fixed strategy both
with sales purchases and with preparation & training. He has his first
runner of the season at a typical time and often uses the Kempton turf
maidens to introduce solid types - how will this compare with this auction
race?
Consider that in 2005 he ran Godfrey Street (later 5f Group 2 winner) and
Cool Creek (later 6f Group 2 winner) on March 26th and April 2nd
in the only two Kempton maidens before it closed. They were a little exceptional
in terms of class but he usually runs at least average winners during the
season in the early Kempton turf maidens.
However, a big point to note is that neither Cool Creek (lost ground with
a slow start and inexperience) nor Godfrey Street (made much of the running
before getting tired with R Hughes testing him out, in effect and happy
he had a STO winner under him) won on debut.
In 2005 he only had 6 debut winners from 100 2yos with four
being better types and two 'accidents' in weak Windsor maidens.
R Millman has made a slow start to the season with three unplaced
runners and more like 2004 than his remarkable 2005. He runs Il Palio and
it will be interesting to see how the market deals with the mixed messages
from 2005 & 2006.
KA Ryan had his best season with 2yo runners in 2005 including two
Group 1 winners. He does not target strong debut runs and as a typical
rule a runner capable of rating 50+ on debut for him will indicate a winner
during the season. However, his very earliest debuts tend to be competitive
2yos and the 4 that have run in March in the period 2003-5 have all been
winners during the season with two of them winning FTO. His two fillies
to debut in March in 2005 both won STO in early April after showing promise
on debut.
His representaive here - Granny Peel - was entered for the first race of
the season 9 days ago but did not get a run. It is very rare for him to
have a debut runner this far south - in 2005 he used Warwick once in early
season but the others were mainly north of Nottingham.
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SIRES:
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First Season Sires:-
Invincible Spirit (Il
Palio) has already had two runners with Spoof Master winning the Brocklesby
two days ago.
Iron Mask (Diminuto) has his
first runner.
Redback (Gilded & Granny Peel)
had the favourite for the first race of the season but that runner showed
inexperience and never got into the race. That representative was the most
expensive in the field and he has the two most expensive here.
It's an old nugget of a stat for this site but Redback is still the only
5f 2yo winner for his sire in Britain. He took three goes to win over 5f
for Gilded's trainer - R. Hannon - and showed notably better form over
7f+. He wasn't really a '5f 2yo' but a high class horse capable of mixing
it with average sprint 2yos in early season because of his class.
He will get the odd 5f winner but seems much more likely to do better over
6f+. But, with three early runners already and for '2yo trainers' like
Hannon & Millman it is worth tracking the position.
Tendulkar - has Sad Times running
who became his first representative last week.
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Gilded rated 66 (119) at the sales. Close to average size and a
slightly heavier build. Slightly compact in length, typical of her sire
line.
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