|
March 27th SUMMING UP
|
A pretty typical edition of the race and with an interesting shape to the
match-up between the top three on profile. Zafonical Storm ran a
solid race on debut on the icy slopes at Lingfield and showed good professionalism
to be in the first three from early in the race.
How you view his prospects here depends on how you interpret the form of
that race. There is a perfectly respectable line of argument that says
it was a good run and made better by Spoof Master's comfortable win in
the Brocklesby. A conclusion that said just normal improvement would see
him win here is reasonable.
The alternative viewpoint is that Love In May's race was not strong form
(possibly over-rated) and Zafonical Storm not a strong prospect. He could
well win a modest early race but would be vulnerable to a better type and
one in the 'worth opposing' list if the right shaped contest came along.
However, with a professional run he sets a solid target in this race and
if the others show poor starts and inexperience in the race he could win
quite comfortably with just modest (5-8lb) improvement from debut.
Which brings us to consider Goose Green and whether he is that 'better
type' that can defeat Zafonical Storm. He has a lot of positives in terms
of trainer MO & form, his sire and a reasonable sales rating (although
with a note to check his development). His dam side looks a little slow
and he probably has the scope to develop over 6f+ during the season. So
the question is will he be ready, fast & good enough to win FTO?
Given the set-up he is probably value at a longer price than Zafonical
Storm. There's always the risk a Channon runner, even one with ability,
will give us a clueless debut so you would want a little longer price to
factor that in (consider the debut performance of Puskas in 2005 for example
who couldn't have looked more baffled when the stalls opened). But, if
he checked out ok in the paddock review before the race he would be a bet
at the right price.
Racing Stripes also has a number of positives and his trainer seems
to get his 2yos ready to perform competently on debut if they have ability.
He should be capable of 60s ratings in the season although likely to be
below that on debut.
|
|
RACE QUALITY:
|
A typically small field but the race usually includes a couple of average,
or better, 2yo winners and requires a solid early season performance to
win.
In 2002 the race included three previous runners and all three were winners
in the season rating 75+ including two dual victors. All four of the 2003
field won at some level with the best two runners fnishing 2nd & 3rd.
2004 included three winners from four runners although two at moderate
level and 2005 had a good race between solid 2yo winners Salute Him &
Lyrical Blues with two others successful during the year behind.
|
|
TRAINERS:
|
M Channon (Goose Green) has had a runner in the race in three of
the last four runnings of the event. In 2002 he won with Moon At Midnight
at 9/4 who was on his third outing having run at Doncaster & Newcastle;
Seneschal was a good second in 2004 at 11/2 before winning by 6 lengths
shortly afterwards on his only other 2yo run and last year he won with
Salute Him at 85/40jf. All three of those runners were 80+ raters and with
some scope to develop from early season debuts.
His runner here was entered for the Brocklesby (only 4 days before this
race in 2006 when normally 9 days later) but the trainer ran two others.
His record in 2006 from two runners is one winner and one second place
(who showed inexperience against a STO runner).
|
|
SIRES:
|
First season sire Invincible Spirit has Goose Green running. He
has already had two winners with Spoof Master (on soft turf) and Il Palio
(on Kempton's new AW track). Goose Green was a notably more expensive sales
buy than either of those two.
National Hunt stallion Riverwise (River Prince) has not had a 2yo
runner in the period 2002-5. He has a solid NH record and is best known
for siring Rooster Booster.
|
|
PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
|
Goose Green was rated 70 (112) at the sales with a solid build and
good power behind but with a note to check his 'shape' at 2yo because he
was lengthy and short for his size and with a hint of a dip-back (the check
is to see has he levelled up correctly if you look at his top-line).
Racing Stripes rated 65 (111) and around average size with well
above average build.
|