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March 30th SUMMING UP
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In 2005 the Musselburgh maiden and auction races required a low standard
overall to win. In a ranking of all courses only Southwell's AW produced
a lower average figure. The early stage of the year increases the chances
of a moderate performance, in absolute terms, being enough to win. One
of the features of lower quality races is that more of the runners have
a chance to get involved in the finish because they can reach the required
'standard'. In a tough maden with a 75+ performance to win the majority
of the field will be incapable of ever reaching that standard and
surprises uncommon.
In addition this race has the added complication in that it is our first
chance to get a handle on how forward a range of northern trainers have
their 2yo strings and none of the field has run before. In that context
it is an informative event to analyse but a difficult one to feel confident
about in advance.
In general terms though it would be disappointing if there is not enough
'quality' in the topweight colts and filly to avoid a long priced winner
from the lower weights. Joseph Locke & My Mirasol both
have profiles to be solid sprint winners in the season and a middling debut
by their trainer's standards would set a good mark here for the others.
Stir Crazy has been entered in various races previously including
for the first Irish race of 2006 last Sunday. This tells us he is probably
a straightforward and natural 2yo who should be able to give a solid account
of himself. His trainer appears to have settled into his normal debut strategy
with 2yos so far - where the best and most mentally mature types can win
on debut (Hephaestus gave a good impression of BA Foxtrot in terms of mental
maturity to give him his only debut winner so far). He ought to be able
to place in this group at least.
Of the others a forward showing and making a place would indicate they
are better than their profiles suggest they are. D Barron can be hard to
read with his 2yos so Ingleby Image's run will be interesting. Our
Toy Soldier's trainer tends to gets winners from late April onwards
and rare early season debut wins so again, a placed run here would indicate
solid ability.
MW Easterby got a raft of places with debut runners in early season in
2005 and at longer SPs (33/1 second in this race for example) so, in theory,
Minimum Fuss is a candidate to spring some sort of a surprise. But
on profile she looks a poor type and this looks a relatively strong race.
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TRAINERS:
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An interesting race because it sees the first example of a range of Yorkshire
based trainers (or further north) with runners. So far there have been
virtually no runners from these stables and the cold spring seems to have
them a little behind schedule.
KA Ryan is the one exception having already run Granny Peel at Kempton
this week. His earliest one of two runners tend to be a mix of his best
early 2yo and solid precocious types that can be pressed on with to get
early wins before falling down the ratings scale (think of Lake Hero &
Amber Glory in 2005). Granny Peel looked a disappointing type and a question
it would be nice to see answered is why she ran so early in the south?
On the evidence of her first run she didn't look up to Amber Glory standard
for example.
In this race he has My Mirasol who is from a family he likes - he trained
the half brother to show useful form at 2yo. His owner has had a number
of useful 2yos with the trainer and this one presumably was bought to be
another. He was relatively expensive given the sire who had a poor first
season in 2005 and seems to have reasonable prospects of being the solid
2yo maiden winner we could expect the trainer to produce.
In 2002 he introduced the dual (seller) winner Yarrita in this race, and
in 2003-4 winning 2yos for this owner (Mirasol Princess won at 6/1 and
Monsieur Mirasol 3rd at 10/1). Last year he ran Amber Glory who stayed
on for a promising third at 11/2.
K Burke chooses his earliest debut runners well and they tend to
be precocious 2yos that can win at some level during the season. Consider
that in the last three seasons he has introduced 6 of his 2yos in March
and all have been winners during the season (the record is 10 from
14 in March & April in the same period). In 2005 his first four runners
all performed below expectations and he said that his string was behind
schedule. These four all won in a period of 5 days in late May to early
June.
He runs the cheap buy Tokyo Jo in this race and we could expect she will
be a winner of some sort in time but she is unlikely to be useful on profile.
His only runner in this race in recent seasons was the useful Shank On
Fourteen who finished runner-up as 4/6f.
B Smart did not have a 2yo runner until May 12th in 2005 and that
late start, along with a solid set of 2yos, enabled his early debut runners
to compete strongly. In a more typical year he will have a few runners
in March-April although they tend to need to develop with racing and he
has only one win before April 30th in the last four years (a 33/1 success
in 2003 on debut by Ali's Oasis in a similar race to this one at the course
and a notably weak race).
M Dods has an interesting record with 2yos although a below average
record overall. The interest comes in because his earliest debut each year
usually include one (or both) of his 2yo winners in the season. Also, he
seems to prepare his debut runners more than the average which means his
early debuts can compete well. He has had a debut winner in the last two
seasons with his first runner (in mid April) in the same Pontefract fillies'
race. His other early debuts back to 2002 tend to finish in the 3rd to
5th range (and include his best 2yo).
He runs Joseph Locke who is joint topweight and has a solid 2yo pedigree
so is one to assess for how competitive he can be in this race and certainly
for the future.
D Barron has a somewhat baffling record with 2yos recently and it
can be hard to pin down a 'typical' season and approach for him. He has
had an increased number of 2yos in the period 2003-5 and with an able set
of athletes in 2003 he had his best season. In that context 2004-5 have
been disappointing with large groups of 2yos producing just 5 and then
3 winners.
The variability in his record can be judged from the fact that in 2003
he introduced 6 season winners (from 7 runners) by the end of April. In
the last two seasons he has run a total of eleven 2yos by the end of April
and just one has won as a juvenile. Try and pick the 'trend' out
of that. In general terms he gets debut wins with his better 2yos or, occasionally,
with average 2yos in weaker early season races. He runs the filly Ingleby
Image who has the profile to be a minor sprint 2yo winner.
MW Easterby has a fairly fixed approach to 2yo racing these days
and gets his juveniles ready and fit early and they tend to show up on
debut if they have ability and he gets long priced places in early season
including the 33/1 runner-up in this race in 2005 (Soto). He runs Minimum
Fuss who appears to be a limited type on profile.
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SIRES:
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First season sire Fath has his first runner with Stir Crazy.
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Our Toy Soldier rated 62 (118) at the sales.
Stir Crazy rated 65 (111). A similar size to Our Toy Soldier but
more heavily built. A moderate mover behind at the sales (a 'shuffler')
and this would be need to be checked in paddock review at 2yo.
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