British 2yo Racing - 2005 Season Race Profile - 003 Musselburgh 5f Maiden March 27th

BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2005 Season Race Profile

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Race 003: Musselburgh March 27th : 5f (D2) Maiden

68	67	66	<65	64	63	62	61	<60	59	58	57	56	<55	54	53	52	51	<50	Under 50
				Kung Hei						Amber Glory	Dusty City							Soto		Seallarain [32]
					City For Conquest											Frogmill Prince		Wovoka		Woodwee [30] Rothesay Dancer [18]
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
						Ellcon Triska-dekaphobia				Shaydreamb'r				Queens Bounty	Getbuzzin				Little Elver [45] Garstang [47]	Baysgarth Park [30]

Note:- Bold numbers in the grey boxes are the scale for the estimated rating level for this race. The position of the horse's name indicates the expected performance level as assessed before the race. The table can be read from left to right as the expected finishing positions of the runners.

Declarations: (Colts, carr. 9-0) Dusty City, Frogmill Prince, Kung Hei, Soto, Woodwee, Wovoka, (Fillies, carr. 8-9) Amber Glory, City For Conquest, Rothesay Dancer, Seallarain.

Entries: Amber Glory, Baysgarth Park, City For Conquest, Dusty City, Ellcon, Frogmill Prince, Garstang, Getbuzzin, Kung Hei, Little Elver, Queens Bounty, Rothesay Dancer, Seallarain, Shaydreambeliever, Soto, Triskaidekaphobia, Woodwee, Wovoka.

Pre-race Summary

March 27th

[Update 10:00am E-mail contributor (thanks Tony M.) says that trainer L. Stubbs has said Kung Hei will not run if the ground is softer than good. This would make sense given his smaller size and relatively quick, short action. If he doesn't run then preference would still be for the two higher rated debut runners (City For Conquest and Amber Glory) unless the going is which case a real surprise winner is possible. Dusty City is only third best given the trainer's record with debuts here and that his early runners have not competed well.

Kung Hei declared for this race rather than Kempton and that looks a good choice. He would not have beaten Makabul at Kempton and would probably have been a clear second in that race.

Slight niggle is that this run is only 8 days after debut and the only two runners the trainer has run with 14 days or less break in 2003-4 have run to lower ratings STO after solid early debuts (remember the good 3TO record the stable has). In summary a good favourite with slight issues over his size (makes him vulnerable to a better type here) and the short break from debut so not one to follow unless the price is right.

City For Conquest or Amber Glory from trainers that regularly debut ok early season winner types in this race look the best candidates to win if Kung Hei underperforms. Preference would be for City For Conquest. Amber Glory would need to be an above average winner to continue her trainer's record of winning with his first runner in the season (as he did in 2003-4).

March 23rd (Entry Stage)	The 2003 & 2004 results are at the bottom of the page for comparison
March 23rd SUMMING UP	A solid group of entries by the standards of the race and likely to produce a race requiring a rating between 65-70 to win. Kung Hei sets a good standard but not unbeatable by a useful debutant. It would be no surprise to see one of the others that are higher ranked on profile being fancied and competitive for a win.
RACE QUALITY:	The two early season races at the course usually contain a number of runners capable of early season wins rating in the 60s. They regularly produce one or two runners that can rate 70+, including odd runners capable of rating 80+ or higher later in the season. The current race looks up to standard with the six highest rated on profile plus Getbuzzin capable of rating 60+ in early season.. One or two should be capable a 70+ rating in mid-season.
TRAINERS:	The two early season races at the course regularly get runners from the same group of trainers. The notable exceptions from this race are T. Barron, J. Given, E. Alston and R. Fisher.
SIRES:	First Season Sires represented = Primo Valentino (Kung Hei), City On A Hill (City For Conquest, Dusty City), Bertolini (Triskaidekaphobia), Rambling Bear (Baysgarth Park).
SALES REVIEWS:	7 of the 18 entries were reviewed at the sales with ratings between 60 and 71. The sales rating are in line with the expected 'competitive early season' group that the Musselburgh races usually attract. The highest rating was Getbuzzin (71) but she is unlikely to be ready to run to a high 60s on debut. Triskaidekaphobia, Shaydreambeliever and Amber Glory all received ratings which suggest they could be competitive in the race if they are fit and professional on debut.

Musselburgh 5f Maiden: Race Result from 2003

Note 1: Horse with * denotes a winner later in the season. Both winners won at least two further races in the season.
Note 2: Trainers highlighted in cream have entries in the 2005 race.

2004 Draw 2003 Draw

1 Joseph Henry * 4/1 M. Johnston 7 1 Mirasol Princess * 6/1 K. A. Ryan 2

2 Nee Lemon Left 50/1 A. Berry 6 2 Shank On Fourteen * 4/6f K. Burke 1

3 Monsieur Mirasol * 10/1 K. Ryan 4 3 Are You There * 8/1 T. Barron 5

4 Tiviski * 2/1f E. Alston 5 4 Jerome 5/1 T. Easterby 6

5 Next Time 10/3 M. Polglase 1 5 Tanara * 6/1 J. Given 3

6 City Torque 16/1 T. Barron 3

7 Procrastinate 6/1 R. Fisher 8 NR Rare Coincidence NR R. Fisher 4

NR No Commission* NR R. Fisher 2

		2004		Draw			2003		Draw
1	Joseph Henry *	4/1	M. Johnston	7	1	Mirasol Princess *	6/1	K. A. Ryan	2
2	Nee Lemon Left	50/1	A. Berry	6	2	Shank On Fourteen *	4/6f	K. Burke	1
3	Monsieur Mirasol *	10/1	K. Ryan	4	3	Are You There *	8/1	T. Barron	5
4	Tiviski *	2/1f	E. Alston	5	4	Jerome	5/1	T. Easterby	6
5	Next Time	10/3	M. Polglase	1	5	Tanara *	6/1	J. Given	3
6	City Torque	16/1	T. Barron	3
7	Procrastinate	6/1	R. Fisher	8	NR	Rare Coincidence	NR	R. Fisher	4
NR	No Commission*	NR	R. Fisher	2