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April 11th SUMMING UP
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A notably lopsided profile and different, for example, to the previous
days maiden at Bath where the strength of the Lingfield AW form did not
look good enough to hold off the better newcomers (it didn't hold off the
average ones...). Here, the start made to the season by Mr Wallace increaes
confidence that Hart Of Gold is far enough ahead in terms of preparation
to set a strong standard for any of the newcomers to beat.
The better newcomers on profile all seem likely to run into the 50s ratings
unless they are well above average. Baileys Hilight, Chjimes
& Emefdream are all likely to win a race in the season but would
have to be close to a top drawer trainer debut for April to win.
Of interest is just how good Castano is? His trainer targetted this
maiden or the later one at the course in April to run his best 2yos in
2001-2004 and two won on debut. In 2005 he still had the range of strong,
early, debut winners but they were in March and the first week of April
before this race. With a slow start in 2006 it is not obvious we have seen
the trainer's best 2yos (if we have then he is in for a thin season) so
it is possible that Castano was specifically selected to run here. If he
was and he's above average then he would give Hart Of Gold a lot of trouble.
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TRAINERS:
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MJ Wallace (Hart Of Gold) is the story of the early weeks
of the season and has had three winners from 4 runners to date, two on
debut and one after a two day break from a good debut. He clearly has a
solid group of 2yos and, in a season where many trainers are behind schedule,
has them well forward in the training and race preparation.
Major trainer M Johnston has his first runner and April is a typical
start time. His April debut runners are usually capable of a win of some
kind in the season with a record of 13 season winners from 16 April debuts
in 2003-5. The only debut winners amongst that group have been Attraction
(in late April) and useful, natural 2yo Joseph Henry. In general only his
highest class 2yos win FTO although there were signs in 2005 that some
of his average 2yos could win on debut and in general he seems to have
his 2yos more ready in the last two seasons.
R Millman has made a slow start to 2006 in contrast to his remarkable
start in 2005 with one winner (on debut) so far. He regularly uses the
April maidens at Nottingham to introduce his best 2yos although this was
not the case in 2005 when he showed us his better 2yos earlier and ran
two moderate ones in this race. He runs Castano here who is by his (probable)
favourite sire in Makbul.
SC Williams does not target 2yo racing and has only had 2 winners
from 40 individuals in the last four seasons, both in August. He has not
had a runner before May in recent years and none before July in 2005. Why
the notably early run here with Little Tommy Fella?
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SIRES:
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First season sire Kyllachy has a runner with Baileys Hilight and
his second overall after a poor debut from Chip Leader two days ago. He
had more than 70 yearlings sold in 2005 for an average well over 30,000gns.
With the quality of support he got at stud to add to the sheer numbers
he is an obvious candidate to compete strongly for top first season sire.
However, it is worth noting that he showed his best form as a 4yo and was
a good nursery class runner at 2yo in later season.
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Chjimes rated 65 (109) at the sales.
Hart Of Gold rated 63 (101).
Little Tommy Fella rated 65 (91)
Bentley rated 68 (136) but trainer issues raise doubts.
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