| April 5th |
The 2003-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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April 5th SUMMING UP
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Usually an informative race for the future and this one looks up to that
standard with Bold Cross, More Time & Mr Cheers having profiles to
be average, or better, winners in the season.
However, Mr Cheers runs for a trainer who has very rare debut winners (8
in 227 tries between 2001-4). Somnus couldn't manage it for him for example.
Bold Cross & More Time both run for trainers who do not target debut
wins but can get them with better types. Of these, More Time may be more
competent on debut.
The start made to the season by trainer R Millman means that although Bathwick
Prince has a moderate pedigree he may be ready to run to his best on debut.
This would make him competitive with the better prospects in this particular
race.
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RACE QUALITY:
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The last three runnings of this race are a good example of why using Race
Standardisation to assess 2yo maidens is such a blunt tool. The race requires
a wide variety of performances to win from year to year depending upon
the quality of the field.
2002 saw a high quality early season 2yo race between Mazepa & Wunders
Dream who were 9 lengths clear of the third (an 80+ rated winner later).
In 2003 a tough race saw two runners who rated 95+ in the season win from
an OR 90 rated nursery winner with a 75+ maiden winner in behind. In 2004
only one of the runners won a later race and rated around 60 in winning.
This year's race looks at the higher end of the quality scale and depending
on runner readiness could take a 70+ performance to win. Leaving aside
the likely quality of the Millman pair (discussed below) there are entries
from M Channon, M Quinlan & T Easterby who all have prospects to be
average, and possibly above average winners in the season.
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TRAINERS:
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BR Millman has regularly used the early season maidens at Nottingham
to run his best 2yo in and they often win on debut. Consider Maktavish
(2001), Coconut Penang (2002 STO) & Cop Hill Lad (2003). In 2004 he
had a relatively poor season with 2yos and a moderate to average type ran
here (although still one of the best of his early 2yos).
However, in 2005 he has made a very fast start to the season (well ahead
of any other trainer in terms of readiness). He has already had five debut
winners plus one second place. We should probably presume that he has already
shown us his best 2yo(s) (Makabul and Phantom Whisper).
The two runners he has here are both owner breds for the same owner, by
first season sires, with moderate pedigrees, which were retained cheaply
at the cheap Doncaster sales. Now if the better of these two (Bathwick
Prince on jockeys) can win here on debut giving a Cop Hill Lad type
performance then Mr Millman is going to have a season he could retire
on.
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SIRES:
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First season sires with runners are Beckett
(Thomas Of Bathwick), Bertolini
(Mr Cheers) & Superior
Premium (Bathwick Price).
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SALES REVIEWS:
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More Time was rated 75 at the sales and with an above average chance
of being a competitive 2yo. He was seen as being able to rate 80+ as a
mid-season sprinter.
Mr Cheers was rated 72 at the sales and with an above average chance
of being a competitive 2yo. In line with the rating he was seen as having
less scope to develop in the season than More Time.
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