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April 16th SUMMING UP
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Low grade stuff and only two of the fillies' appeal as possible winners
on profile. Richard Hannon has not got going with his 2yos yet and does
not appear to have run a better type. Mrs Crossy looked one of his
moderate to average types on debut and put up a moderate level of form
in a bits-and-pieces run after losing ground at the start. She does not
have a strong 5f pedigree and wouldn't set a strong standard but appears
to have found weakish race.
Instinct would probably incline you to look for something to take Mrs Crossy
on with given her profile. However, only La Roca appeals as likely
to make a strong debut and she has enough positives to suggest she can
make a strong showing. Her trainer won with three debutantes in 2005 and
his first runner in 2006 finished a good second while showing enough readiness
to always be in the race.
Looking for promise in the other fillies is not easy and the field may
not contain more than 2, or possibly three average maiden winners. If we
imagine that La Roca runs poorly & Mrs Crossy shows little improvement
while losing ground at the start again then it would be a wide open race.
A range of fillies could win given the modest level of form required and
a longer priced winner unsurprising (the race has had this shape in 2003-4).
In an ideal world La Roca will be average, or better, and get her sire
off to a good start with a win. Mrs Crossy wouldn't be a confident bet
and is unlikely to be value given her trainer's reputation. Amongst the
others it will interesting to check whether Springtime Parkes &
Caj show enough to suggest they can develop to be winners. Cavort
will be Pat Eddery's first 2yo runner since taking out his licence so will
be a chance to assess how he will approach debut runs.
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RACE QUALITY:
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The Warwick fillies' maidens in early season have a very variable record
in terms of quality. At one end of the scale a limited runner like Little
Wizzy has won showing seller level form while R. Hannon has introduced
good fillies such as later Group 3 winner Rag Top. In general there is
little strength in depth and the quality usually comes from a small group
of trainers - notably R. Hannon & M. Channon (e.g. Majestic Desert).
In 2005 this race was 2 weeks later and was won by solid maiden class filly
Adeje Park for P. Chapple-Hyam and, typically for his maiden winners, he
stepped her up to Listed & Group 3 races although with no success.
The field behind her included just two later maiden level winners.
The race is up to Class 4 this season but remember this is because Warwick
racecourse have put some extra money into the prize fund and not because
of any expectation of a 'classy' field.
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SIRES:
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Ishiguru (Almora Guru)
has his second runner after a win for the expensive Hellvellyn. His filly
here cost only 4,000gns as a yearling.
Rock Of Gibraltar (La
Roca) has his first runner. Unsurprisingly, given his good racing record
and ultra tough attitude, he proved successful in attracting support and
a good group of mares to cover. He had as many as 49 yearlings sold in
2005 for an average close to 100,000gns. He was relatively precocious given
his pedigree and won over 5f on debut on April 21st in a typical early
Irish maiden.
Second season sires Medicean
(Springtime Parkes) & Observatory
(Vizionary) both got winners only from late May or June onwards and the
only 5f winner between them was Zennerman's 100/1 victory in late May in
a pace affected auction race (and he ran at 8f in later season).
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Cadi May rated 62 (81) at the sales, small and below average build
and more lightly built behind.
Sainara rated 62 (81), small, below average build but in proportion.
Weak walk.
Splendidio rated 65 (91), small (possibly smaller than Cadi May
or Sainara) with a lengthy, weak neck and very little scope to develop.
Ok build and set-up behind and ought to be an early type.
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