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April 28th SUMMING UP
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An interesting edition of the race and one depending upon what becomes
of Suhayl Star, Blue Monkey & Tom Paris for the
better quality possibilities. In 2006 the benefit of a previous run has
been less than in 2005 and we have seen a range of longer prices debut
winners turning over 'soft' favourites with suspect form. So, what to make
of Suhayl Star who rates the best prospect of a motley crew with previous
experience? He doesn't look a 5f type physically but that doesn't stop
his trainer trying to get an early 5f win with them. Naahy couldn't win
over 5f in three tries despite being high class over 7f and it took Mac
Love four goes to win over 5f despite being a high class 2yo.
Although a moderate level of form Suhayl Star's first run looked a solid
effort and promising better on a stiffer track and further. What happened
at Newbury? Did he blow up through trying too hard (for his natural cruising
speed) to chase Cav Okay or is he not that good? Given his physical type
and the races he has run in he ought to be a 75+ maiden winner of some
sort, probably over further. He is worth another chance here to show improved
form from debut but he seems unlikely to set a strong standard and be vulnerable
to nippier types.
The most interesting prospect in the group is Blue Monkey. As covered
below his trainer only gets odd debut winners but we are still in the period
when he might introduce a 'natural'. The sire has a solid FTO success record
and the sales price gives hope for a better physical type who might be
good enough to compete for the win.
Tom Paris looked a better long term prospect than Fool Me
at the sales and they ran in the same race here on debut. Neither got into
the race with Tom Paris doing a good examplar of the phrase 'gormless apeth'
and Fool Me outpaced downhill before making a little progress late. Fool
Me should improve and if the front two in the profile fail to come up to
expectations could be competitive to win a moderate race. But he is not
the sort of horse I would be looking to back and of more interest would
be the future prospects of the K. Fallon ridden Tom Paris.
The rest of the field seem to range from poor types through to possible
moderate winners. Persian Fox represents a trainer who had his runners
show their best form on debut in 2005 but on pedigree looks a 55-64 rated
2yo at best (remember that this early in the season if he can run to that
now he could well place). Our Toy Soldier has shown poor to moderate
form but at least showed some natural pace last time to be two lengths
clear of a moderate group at halfway. He should come up short of a place
in this group but can be assessed for his prospects for a minor 5f win
on an easy track.
Mystery World never got into the race on debut behind Our Toy Soldier
after losing a couple of lengths at the start and hanging right. His trainer
has already run more 2yos before the end of April than in any of the previous
three seasons and after a slow start in 2005. His earliest runners are
usually capable of some kind of win in the season so he is a key runner
to assess in the pre-race physical review.
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TRAINERS:
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M Channon can be a difficult
trainer to work out although there is usually less 'going on' than you
think. As with someone like J Gosden (in later season) it can be hard to
assess which one of his debut runners will step forward to win STO. He
does not target strong debuts and typically the FTO wins come with better
types and odd 'accidents' in weaker races.
His record in 2006 so far in terms of runners and winners is just below
that of 2005 but still around a 15% strike rate so 'Ok' at the top level.
However, he has had a number of runners perform poorly STO - Goose Green,
Queen Of Narnia, Rouen & Suhayl Star (his rep. here) have all failed
to improve STO. Also, Stir Crazy & Flying Lion have shown worse form
3TO.
Suhayl Star has his third quick run here after a poor fade behind Cav Okay
8 days ago. The trainer can run both good and bad types with short breaks
in early season. Is Suhayl Star a good or bad one? Does the stable have
a low level illness problem? [As an aside, if you watch the video of Cav
Okay in that last race he is a classic example of a short necked sprinter,
with a fast action, and the neck & head nodding in metronomic
fashion in very good timing with his movement]
MLW Bell had settled into
a predictable pattern with 2yos through to 2004 and studying his record
and methods was very worthwhile. 2005 was a headline year for him in terms
of Motivator's Derby win but he had a poor year with his 2yos.
He has a consistent strategy with debut runs and typically he will be happy
with a placing in the 4th - 6th range. He has a solid understanding of
his 2yos' ability and usually puts them in appropriate race types FTO (with
occasional gaffes). The debut successes he gets fall into two clear categories,
firstly early season wins by his most precocious & useful 2yo. It is
notable that his only wins before May in the last six seasons have
been three of these FTO wins. From mid-season on he will then get FTO wins
with his very best 2yos - such a Motivator.
He has used this race to introduce lesser quality 2yos in the last two
seasons. He has made solid start to 2006 with two average, or better, debuts
by expensive sales buys and introduces another here with Blue Monkey.
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SIRES:
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First season sire Fath is represented by the cheap breeze-up purchase
Tarif. He has made a mixed start - his first two runners in 2006 have won
but his last three debuts have been at poor to moderate level with limited
promise.
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Suhayl Star rated 77 in paddock review at Kempton.
Tom Paris rated 72 (144) at the yearling sales. Average size and
just above average build, fairly typical sire 'power' behind but a little
lengthier than a 'typical' sprinter.
Little Tommy Fella rated 65 (91) at the sales. Below average size,
beteer build but more lightly built behind, relatively lengthy.
Fool Me rated 64 (102) at the sales. Small & heavy type of sire.
Unless grows well will need to be out early to compete. Typical 'McMahon'
family 'build' buy (and worry less about size).
Our Toy Soldier rated 62 (118) at the sales. Smallish with reasonable
build for size, unremarkable overall.
Cavort rated 61 in paddock review at Warwick. Reasonable size in
that group of moderate & smallish fillies but below average build and
on the narrow side = lacking power. Moderate qualirty muscle development.
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