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RACE SUMMARY
1. Fool Me | 2. Cavort | 3. Blue Monkey | 4. Tom Paris | 5. Mystery World | 6. Tarif | |
[Estimate] Post Race | 64 | 57 | 53 | 40 | 38 | 35 |
Pre-race
Profile |
62 | 41 | 66 | 61 | 54 | 27 |
7. Persian Fox | 8. Merlins Quest | 9. Suhayl Star | 10. Little Tommy Fella | 11. Tagula Music | 12. Our Toy Soldier | |
[Estimate] Post Race | 31 | 30 | 26 | 22 | 16 | 2 |
Pre-race
Profile |
58 | 38 | 65 | 49 | 43 | 56 |
Clicking on the horse's name in the following summary will link to a picture from the day.
Fool Me is a typical example of the small but very heavy physical type that Bryan McMahon used to buy for owner John Fretwell. The older McMahon was at the course to represent his son and has identified this as their best early 2yo. The most heavily built in the group by some way and well muscled. In the walk he did not look that athletic and he still looked a little 'fat'. In this context his comfortable win, although showing just moderate form, is a good sign. He has the physical build to improve with training and racing.
He's likely to run in races such as the Listed National Stakes over 5f and ought to be ok over 5f. His size ought to limite him at higher levels and you would expect him to be a Conditions level runner and possibly competitive in Listed races. He's the sort of horse that B2yoR tends to underrate because of his size and in the Listed races he'll presumably run in will be looking for a bigger model to support. But perhaps he'll continue to live up to his name and vindicate Bryan McMahon.
Cavort is an entirely different physical type to Fool Me and a good example of the other set-up that allows horses to compete well in early season. Fool Me is the very strong, compact model that does well if they are atletic enough to 'move their weight' with enough stride length. Cavort is the taller, leggier, narrow type that has an advantage over smaller horses in early season although they are not real 5f types. She looked fitter here than at Warwick athough still too narrow and lacking quality. She was much more professional here and ran surprisingly well although her proximity to the winner rather suggests the form is moderate.
She doesn't look a real 5f type and probably has little scope to improve. She would be one to oppose over a fastish 5f against nippier types and probably needs 6f+. She might find a race with her fitness and physical development advantage but would probably be a 'soft' favourite in a solid 5f race with that '2' after her name.
Blue Monkey ran slightly below expectations but for identifiable reasons. He was just the biggest in the field and second in rak, behind Fool Me, in terms of build. A fairly typical, just above medium size, example of his sire's type with the usual above average sprinter length. He carried himself well and his movement was acceptable. On physical type he ought to be able to rate over 80 and do well in early to mid season because he's a ready type. He did not appeal as likely to be really useful and another Conditions race type.
So why did he perform below expectations? Partly because he's not a useful+ type so when he got behind in the race he did not have that 'extra gear' to pick up the leaders - he only made around 2 lengths when switched centre course. In paddock review he was also a little too wound up and immature - jig-jogging throughout, colty and not concentrating. In the race he broke ok from the stalls but then needed to be driven along to pick-up and got behind because of this. In summary, likely to be a little above average maiden winner and not one to oppose lightyl next time (as opposed to Cavort for example) but would need to show a lot more progress when making his effort in a race to be one to support in stronger races.
Tom Paris was a disappointment and has not developed well from the sales where he lloked a better prospect than Fool Me for example. That runner has muscled up well and is well enough put together (neat geometry) to use that strength. On the VT of his debut he had looked an awkward mover whith a gawky neak and head carriage. Physical im=npection her showed that it was not just inexperience - he really has developed into a gawky individual - he is not 'neat'. The front and back do not appeared amtched and this showed up in his walk.
He drifted in the market despite Mr Fallon riding and gave another unco-ordinated display in the race. Another who broke ok from the stalls but then needed the jockey to roust him to get going, losing ground as he did. He responded and was reasonably close up after one furlong but lost a little ground to halfway as he got hampered next to the rail. With his route up the rails blocked he switched off them and made a brief effort inside 2f out. He made little progress and finised fourth but the wrong side on a 3.5 length 'garbage gap'.
He can perform a little better with more experience and with a clear run but he does not look likely to 'snap together' quickly and will need to develop well to show moderate to average form levels. His awkward movement also needs to improve and he's not one to follow.
Mystery World was rugged up until the jockey mounted and not easy to sum up - partly because he was unremarkable. A little below average size, average build, possibly a little narrow but just 'ordinary'. He was running after just a 5 day break from a debut race where he missed the break, hung right and never got into the event. Drawn next to the rails he gave a more typical trainer run here by duelling for the lead from early on and setting a solid but usable pace. He faded from before the final furlong and showed just moderate form. He seems likely to be a 60s type and the trainer will find a race for him but probably over 6f+ and maybe not until the nurseries.
Tarif was a surprise and in a field where the likes of Tom Paris and Suhayl Star needed 'explaining away' he was one of two cheaper buys with potential. The trainer fits into the 'small & unfashionable stable' bracket although Speciosa has done a lot to perhaps change that. Tarif cost just 4,000gns at the 2yo breeze up sales and that sort of money normally indicates a woeful physical type. However, although on the small side, he is a neatly made, well enough built, little sprinter. He jig-jogged throughout the pre-race but carried himself well and his movement looked acceptable - so why the poor sales price?
He gave trouble in the stalls - rearing up - and
was unsettled when they opened and lost ground by going right handed from
his centre course draw. At various times in the race he looked a difficult
ride and ended up near the rails and getting blocked off behind faders
in the last furlong. Last at halfway he improved though to sixth despite
the 'issues'. An interesting horse to follow at a lower level and one that
can do a good deal better than the moderate final level here.
As a general point we can start to see a definite
'type' with first season sire Fath's early runners. Try comparing this
one to Stir Crazy for example as a neat, ready, but small with limited
development, type.
Persian Fox was another rugged throughout and representing a trainer whose 2yos did not develop from debut in 2005. He lloked below average size and on the narrow side. He never got into the race and showed moderate form. Unlikely to surprise.
Merlins Quest was the other pleasant surprise among the newcomers. A good size and matched build although possibly too lengthy to be a 5f type. Quite neatly built and with scope to strengthen and improve. He lost three lengths at the start and was more than six lengths back at halfway before making some progress uphill. Given his trainer's record with 2yos he may well be more of a 3yo sprint handicapper with development (in the Gavioli mode) but one to keep an eye on because he is better physically than he showed and ought to be able to rate 60+, at least, over 6f+.
Suhayl Star ran badly and the omens were not good with the longish SP. He was downgraded in paddock review rating here because of his relative compactness to his legginess - an issue which had not shown up at Kempton (where the rebuilding work has changed the pre-parade viewing position and the angle/distance of looking at the horses. Which is partly excuse but also an indication that you are always learing in paddock review). Anyway, his attitude here was a real negative and he was clearly 'gone' before the race here. He was wound up in the paddock, sweating in a negative way and he has not handled, mentally, three quick trips to the racecourse.
He broke second but was held up, presumably to try to conserve his energy given how easily he had 'blown up' chasing Cav Okay last time. Nothing happened when he was asked to make an effort after halfway and the jockey 'gave up' by a furlong home and let him drift home. In summary, the experiment to try to win an early 5f race has failed and has affected him mentally. He's better than he has shown but needs 6f+ and a break. He's probably a 67-74 rater but will need to some back later in the season, possibly in nurseries to prove it.
Having been very positive about the field for his debut at Kempton his performances had been a concern. Then Riverside Dancer, who finished behind him at Kempton, won a fillies' auction on this day, giving weight away and looking a solid prospect. Another indication that Suhayl Star really has gone backwards from his debut and there was some real 'promise' there.
Little Tommy Fella is smallish, lacks build and was bandaged behind. Lacking quality and not one to follow. It is interesting to compare the pictures of Cavort and Tagula Music - why did one finish second and the other next to last?
Our Toy Soldier is small and quite well built, notably deep in fron although lighter and shallower behind. He's a little smaller than Fool Me and more compact - try looking at the pictures of the two and think about why one was a promising winner and the other a short-running last. In summary he has 'low level 5f AW sprinter' stamped on him and currently he doesn't really get home over 5f. He was helld up here and made a little progress after halfway when asked to make an effort but faded, then got hampered next to the rail a furlong out and was eased. He ought to be competitive in AW sprints with development and a 50s rating win over 5f at Southwell, allowed to use his pace to get a lead would seem a reasonable 'plan'.