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April 30th SUMMING UP
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If you look at the profile for last year's equivalent race you will see
that it was a low quality affair that need a rating in the 50s to win and
was of little future significance in terms of winners. The Class 6 level
and the limit on the type of sires that can be represented contirbutes
to this along with the range of trainers with runners.
The majority of this field are of similar quality on profile and if you
ignore the top two you would be searching around amongst Smirfys Diamond,
Amelie Brown, Blue Madeira and Ingleby Princess for possible
winners on the day. They would also be on the list to assess for potential
for minor future winners. The race is lifted out of that level by The
Nifty Fox &, in particular, Domino Dancer. The first of
these made an above average debut for his trainer as his first runner of
the season. He showed more readiness than his usual level and is out of
a mare who won over 5f on her March 30th debut (although at a low level).
He is likely to be limited to 60s rating but has good prospects of running
to that level here and sets a solid standard.
Domino Dancer is the most expensive in the field by some way and is by
a good 2yo sire in Tagula who has never really been fashionable and hence
his lowish median sales price which allows his progeny to run in the race.
On the dam's side he is out of a stoutly bred, well related, Aga Khan bred
mare who isn't going to help with the 5f zip but brings some quality to
the deal. He was medium size and build at the sales and notably strong
behind. He was rated over 70 with a good chance of being an average maiden
winner or better.
His trainer has a mixed record with 2yos since he started training for
Graham Wylie and 2005 turned into a disappointing one after a flying start
with Masta Plasta & Pacific Pride. In each of the last two seasons
his first runner of the season (in the same maiden at Hamilton) have been
his best 2yos and have performed strongly FTO. Domino Dancer is his first
runner in 2006 and a little earlier than that normal Hamilton maiden but
the profile suggests he's a better runner and ought to compete strongly,
especially in this group (Masta Plasta had to deal with a strong M Channon
STO runner for example).
The SPs of the early debut runners have been a good indication of whether
they have any precocious ability in the last two seasons. In this weaker
group he is likely to be at a shortish price even if he isn't that good
but the positive 'vibes' should still come through.
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