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April 30th SUMMING UP
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A wide spread of abilities and a long 'tail' of poor to moderate fillies
who are unlikely to be of any interest during the season. Peppin's Gold
provides a useful guideline to split the group into. She's a small and
limited type in line with her pedigree and sales price. However, with the
help of a Rod Millman early season preparation she's already proved she
can get round 5f here in a respectable time and should be able to rate
around 60 here. However, the fillies that have run from the race she placed
in, while hanging right in the straight, have competed poorly for the most
part since and confirm the view of that as a moderate race.
She should not be good enough to win, and probably not to place but the
majority of the fillies in the race cannot reach her standard. So, we are
looking for the winner in the group of four fillies which have the profile
to be better than Peppin's Gold. Isobel Rose stands out and has
a positive profile in most areas. She attended a solid pace on her debut
and made progress inside the final 2f to challenge before fading a little
uphill late on. That race is almost certainly the toughest fillies' maiden
run so far and the fourth has won a minor race quite well since. She wouldn't
have to improve to win this but ought to and should be a good favourite.
Frisky Talk pressed the pacemaker in Isobel Rose's race although
only just over a length in front of her. She was fading before the furlong
marker as Isobel Rose went by to challenge Tarkamara and went back to eighth.
She has the profile to be a moderate to average maiden winner and ought
to be better than Peppin's Gold but would need to show abnormal improvement
to cope with Isobell Rose.
Nina Blini represents the same owner, trainer & sire combination
that had Donna Blini in 2005. The fact she ran at Windsor rather than Newmarket
told us she wasn't another better class type. In a solid maiden she made
just a middling debut and seems likely to just make normal improvement
for the trainer to her second run.
As covered below Samahir could fit anywhere in a range of abilities
from potentially useful through to poor. Her profile rating above is based
on her being at least average maiden level winner and ready to compete
well FTO.
It is worth mentioning the draw for this larger field. At the last meeting
the race which Peppin's Gold ran in saw the low drawn fillies dominate
the finish. However, that was a moderate race with a group of matched fillies
of similar ability. Isobel Rose is drawn 14 and Frisky Talk 13 which will
help Peppin's Gold (drawn 4) but not to the extent to enable her to compete
with the better fillies. Samahir is drawn 3 and it will be interesting
to see if she can use that placing near to the inside rail.
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TRAINERS:
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MA Jarvis has his first runner
of the season and May is a typical start time. Unlike many trainers his
earliest debuts will include both winners and non-winners during the season.
His record with 2yos that made May debuts in the last three seasons is
4 winners (during the season) and 7 non-winners.
Trainers who run mostly sales bought runners tend to run the natural, precocious
types in the earlier batches and they tend to include the winners. Mr Jarvis
has a range of owner bred 2yos who will be of mixed ability and the weaker
ones will tend to get run early as well as the 'naturals'.
He has the Maktoum bred Samahir running here so we don't know until we
see her which variety she is. However, it is worth noting that the debut
wins tend to come in the period May to June and are often in the North
or Midlands. This is related to the fact that his earliest debuts each
season are a mix of his best and most precocious 2yos, sprinkled with a
duff ones.
In 2005 his first four debuts by the end of May included two debut winners
(at Haydock & Nottingham and both at 4/1). The other placed FTO also
started at 4/1 and the unplaced runner at 20/1. So, if Samahir is any good
the market should be some guide and she would be ready to run to a solid
level on debut.
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SIRES:
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First season sire Fath has a debut
runner with Montemayorprincess. He has had two winners with his first two
runners and several moderate debut runs since.
American sire Forest Wildcat
is represented by Samahir who was bred by the Maktoum family. He has a
a record of two 6f maiden winners from eight 2yo runners in Britain in
the last three seasons plus the 5f placed runner Colourpoint (for C Britaain
unsurprisingly).
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Paddock Review Ratings :-
Peppin's Gold rated 59 at Warwick on her second run. Fitted in perfectly
to a group of small, light, moderate fillies.
Cotswold Traveller rated 56 at Warwick on debut. In a group of smallish,
'now' fillies stood out as being the heaviest build although small (as
they mostly were). Did not carry that weight well and appeared 'dumpy'
and lacking athleticism.
Sales Review Ratings :-
Frisky Talk rated 69 (138), above average size but more lightly
built and lengthier than a full sprinter.
Vanatina rated 62 (81), small with reasonable build in front but
lighter behind. Not typical of sire's better types.
Tiara Boom De Ay rated 56 (45). Smaller than Vanatina and without
that one's slight build positive. Weak legged, physically immature type
of sire at the sales and to quote the report - "..trundler of some sort."
Shreddy Shrimpster rated 54 (32). Another small one and midway between
Vanatina & TBDA in build terms.
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