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May 6th SUMMING UP
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An average edition of the race and one with more in common with the 2003,
than the tough 2005 version. Unless there is a strong market support for
one of the runners it is likely to be an open market. Given that the three
who come out top on profile are in the low to mid 60s ratings the standard
is below normal and a range of runners could reach that level if they are
more able, or readier on debut that the profile has accounted for.
Silver Hotspur comes out on top because, along with a good basic
sales rating, his trainer does get FTO winners in these type of races when
there are not strong debut candidates nor runners with good form. The early
debut for Conquest is a good sign but with his trainer 2 from 78
with debuts in the last three seasons he clearly isn't liekly to be primed
for the day - he would win because he was a natural and above average.
Winning Spirit falls into a similar category and his trainer only
had a single debut winner in 2005 with a horse good enough to make the
first four in a classic at 3yo. THis one certainly did not look up to that
level at the sales.
The Illies got left behind at Newbury on his debut on and after
losing four lengths at the start was more than 10 lengths behind Cav Okay
at halfway. He wouldn't be the first runner for the trainer to come back
from a rotten debut to win STO (Country Rambler, Red Ash, even Red Clubs
to some extent). He has the sales rating to be much better than he showed.
In summary, a muddling profile and unless The Illies snaps into shape or
one of the better newcomers is well above average it is likely to be a
muddling race. The field ought to include the usual range of maiden winners
with the prospects for better quality needed to be assessed from Conquest,
Silver Hotspur & The Illies.
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RACE QUALITY:
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Normally an above average maiden which requires a performance rating over
70 to win. The fields in recent seasons have been variable with last year's
race notably strong. Today's 2000 Guineas winner - George Washington -
finished third on his first outing having been slightly hampered and not
being strongly pressed by his jockey. Aside from that top rated juvenile
the field included an Italian Group 3 winner (Guest Connections although
only useful in Britain), Group 2 placed Northern Empire, Conditions level
winners League Champion & Mytton's Pride along with two solid maiden
winners (Envision & Laith).
There was no equivalent event in 2004 and the 2003 race was a lower standard
with just three average maiden winners (at Ripon & Ayr aside from Newmarket)
in the field. The 2002 race was better with conditions race winner Tizzy
May winning from two colts that rated 100+ in the season (Steelaninch &
Checkit) with the useful Iron Lad in fourth.
This year's field looks less strong than 2005 and just better than the
2003 group.
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TRAINERS:
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WJ Haggas has his first 2yo runner of the year with the expensively
purchased Conquest for the Highclere syndicates. This is a relatively early
start for him and his first batch of runners in each season will be a mix
of season winners and moderate ones.
He does not target strong debuts and has a record of 2 wins from 78 FTOs
in 2003-5. His record is 1 win from 11 with debut runners that started
at 5/1 or less. The message is, if his horses are capable of winning it
will be on the second or third run. Also, as many of his later winners
are unplaced on debut as place.
P Chapple-Hyam has his first 2yo runner with Silver Hotspur. He
returned to Britain from training in Hong Kong and restarted his training
career here for the 2004 season. Had previously been very successful in
Britain and was notable for targeting 2yo racing. He used to assess his
2yos and identify the better 2yo types and they would be ready to win or
compete strongly on their early debuts and the superior ones would progress
through the season.
This is a late start for him following a 2004-5 when he had a batch of
April runners. He has his runners more forward for their debuts than Mr
Haggas and gets an average number of FTO winners and his later winners
often make the first three on debut and (nearly) always make the first
six. His earliest runners in each of the last two seasons have been capable
of winning races. His five April debut runners have included four winners
plus one runner-up FTO who did not run again. His first two debut runners
in 2005 where the later Group winner Hunter Street and the maiden winner
Adeje Park who ran in black-type races later.
J Noseda has his first runner with Winning Spirit at a slightly
later time than normal. He normally runs at least one precocious type capable
of a win in April but has not in 2006.
He has varied his approach to debut runs and at one stage used to target
FTO wins and get some debut runners notably fit and ready. He has now settled
into a pattern where his debut runners are mostly competent and fit enough
but will progress from the debut. In 2005 he had only one debut winner
with Araafa (4th in today's 2000 Guineas).
It is worth noting that a number of major trainers are not represented
in the race including AP O'Brien who had entries and MR Channon
who has used the race for later Group winners Checkit & Guest Connections
first runs.
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SIRES:
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A slightly odd group of sires given the normal importance of the maiden
with a bias towards solid sprint 2yo producers and unproven first season
stallions.
Danetime is by Danehill
but has a workmanlike record at stud (overshadowed for example by Danehill
Dancer who is by the same sire and was handled by the same trainer for
the same owner). His best runners have been Listed to Group 3 class such
as The Kiddykid & No Time. He has a large crop to represent him in
2006 although they made a relatively low sales average of around 11,000gns.
He has two in the race with Napoleon Dynamite & the filly Christmas
Tart who both made prices above his average.
Fasliyev has a mixed record,
capable of producing speedy 2yos (who tend not to prove useful at 3yo+)
but mixed into a high proportion of moderate ones. He, like Danetime, has
a large group of 2yos to run for him in 2006 which will be an important
test for him. He has already had three times as many runners to this point
in the season as in 2005 and three winners, including Cav Okay who made
a very good impression on debut. The Illies runs for him here and on sales
price and rating should, and needs to, a poor debut at Newbury where he
never saw which was Cav Okay went.
First Season Sires :-
Invincible Spirit
made a sound impression at the sales with 69 yearlings selling for
an average around 20,000gns. His record so far is 3 ordinary wins and 3
promising debuts from 12 runners. He has two of his more expensive yearlings
in the race with Conquest (135,000gns) & Winning Spirit (50,000).
Redback made a reasonable
start at the sales with 47 yearlings making an average over 12,000gns.
He seemed unlikely to be notable for producing 5f runners but has made
an ok start with his 7 runners to date. They include the 5f conditions
winner Gilded and the seller victress Granny Peel. His representative here
is Sonny Red for trainer R. Hannon (who trained Redback and has Gilded).
Toubougg had as many as
75 yearlings sold in 2005 for an average close to 18,000gns. He was a less
precocious 2yo and only two of his first crop have run so far. They include
the debut winner Kerrys Dream. The cheaply bought Tres Hombres runs here.
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Sales Review Ratings :-
Silver Hotspur rated 74 (133) below medium size and average build
but with with strong quarters. Slightly lengthy and a little narrow behind.
Declared as a 'weaver' at the sales and looked a possible 'worrier'.
The Illies rated 72 (173), medium size with well above average
build. Fairly typical sire type = a little narrow but enough power &
maturity for a 70+ winner. Fluent movement a deifinite positive.
Conquest rated 72 (166), below medium size and very heavily built.
Slightly more length than a real 5f type.
Tres Hombres rated 69 (131) despite costing only 11,000gns. Above
average size and build as well as being mature. Slight negatives in narrowness,
a long & upright neck and a little light behind. But better than the
slow bidding which crawled up to final level.
Winning Spirit also rated 69 (131) and cost 50,000gns. Small and
with average build. Neatly made but a 'tight' mover behind.
Sonny Red rated 64 (90) smallish with average build. Similar to
a number by his sire at the sales in being smaller models but with ok builds
along with being weakish movers.
Christmas Tart rated 63 (76), just below medium size and build.
Neatly made and ok power behind the saddle but lacking activeness in the
walk.
Bookiesindex Boy rated 58 (67) below medium size but with a good
heavy build. The problem was that he was not neatly made, with a slightly
dip-back and not holding himself well. The type that could be better than
the rating if he developed well because he was relatively powerfully made.
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