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May 7th SUMMING UP
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Note that the profile does not take account of the draw. Profiles
are designed as 'models' of expected results based on previous evidence
and trends. These should then be adapted based on information such as paddock
review ratings, going changes etc. on the day. In the case of Windsor,
especially with big fields on firmer going. the draw can play a significant
part. However, a fall of rain on the day and the field going middle to
far side in the straight can completely change the bias.
The usual long tail of limited types in the race but a better than average
group of fillies in the top five on profile. Of those with previous runs
Cassiara put up a professional effort in a solid maiden at Leicester
and minor improvement from that would see her setting a strong standard
for the better newcomers. On the downside her trainer tends to have his
fillies mostly wound up on debut so she may have limited improvement. The
caveat about the draw also comes into play since she is drawn 1. If the
going is firmer than good and the field stays stands side she is going
to have to be at a longer price to be value from her stall.
Camissa runs for a trainer who has a below average 2yo record and
he tends not to convert promise into wins. She has shown reasonable form
but not progressed in two runs at the track. She might have the best draw
in 16 and takes on fillies only having been brushed aside by bigger colts
previously. She should run well again but this field looks to have enough
quality to better her ability.
Three Decades makes more appeal as a filly who can develop further
and was not well suited to the turning Kempton track on debut. With a solid
draw in 11 she may come out best of the previous runners if she can show
more basic pace.
Baltic Belle would need to be the better type of Redback and trainer
debut to win this version of the race FTO. She is drawn in 3 and unless
the ground comes up softer than good she would find it difficult to win
from there. Yesterday's debut winner for the stable was supported notably
after the runners were on their way to the start and this seems to be the
better indicator of which ones the stable thinks are good enough to compete
for the win FTO.
Our Ruby's trainer has made a late start in 2005 and his first 2yo
runner yesterday gave a poor performance after drifting in the market.
His earliest runners are usually capable 2yos but these days tend to place
FTO rather than win. Drawn in 13 she ought to make a better show than Silver
Hotspur yesterday while probably finding 'something' too good.
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RACE QUALITY:
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The upper limit on the sales price usually produces a mostly moderate field
with odd average winners along with the occasional better type mixed in.
The fillies that are capable of winning later in the season usually make
the first 4-6 places given the normal lower quality of field.
In 2004 a bunch finish indicated that they were all moderate and there
were few later winners. In 2003 & 2005 the better fillies finished
some way clear of the ruck and demonstrated that they were possible later
winners.
Despite the overall lower quality the race does throw up better types.
In 2005, the tiny filly plugging on into 5th was Rising Cross who showed
Group placed form at 2yo and dead-heated for the Lupe two days ago. In
2004 Clinet was midfield in that bunch finish and eventually won in late
season off an Official Rating in the 60s. Transferred to JW Hills she developed
to 90s ratings at 3yo and was a 4yo winner in Dubai last winter.
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TRAINERS:
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R Hannon regularly uses Windsor for debuts and often has two runners
in the race as he does here. The FTOs here tend to be of average standard
and only the better types win, as with Gamble In Gold in 2005 in the equivalent
event.
The debut winners he gets tend to fit into three categories. Early debut
(April) wins in weak races and/or by natural 2yos; wins by superior runners
in May that will be going to run at Royal Ascot; occasional FTO wins at
7f in late June to July with superior runners. 2005 fitted this model
well.
His debut runners this year have included one April win by a natural with
Cav Okay at Newbury and a notably supported win by Sonny Red at Newmarket
yesterday (in a race which lacked a ready type or a runner with strong
previous form).
Following his usual strategy we should expect one or two more debut wins
by early June with better types and these may receive notable support if
the stable has assessed the race is 'winnable'. We should then be looking
out for his batch of useful 7f 2yos being introduced in late June and early
July. The best of these will probably run at the top level courses such
as Newmarket, Newbury & Ascot and those that are supported strongly
are likely to win.
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SIRES:
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First season sires :-
Auction House has three in
the race - Party Place (16,000gns), Autumn Storm (7,200) & Auction
Oasis (1,800). He made his debut over 7f in the June of his 2yo career
and has had a single winners to date in a claimer from 9 runners.
Fath has the cheaply bought Fair
'N Square. He has two 5f winners to date.
Invincible Spirit had
a large yearling crop and a relatively high sales average. He has made
a solid start with three 5f wins from 10 runners to May 6th.
Redback has two in the race with
Baltic Belle (23,000gns) & Suzieblue (7,500). He seems likely to do
better with runners over 6f+ but has had three 5f winners to date including
the useful filly Gilded for the same trainer and a debut win on soft at
Newmarket yesterday, again for Mr Hannon (who seems to be taking personal
responsibility for ensuring a good start for Redback at stud).
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Sales Ratings :-
Baltic Belle rated 65 (91). Another solidly built, slightly compact
smaller type by Redback for trainer R. Hannon.
Whipchord rated 61 (73). Similar size to Baltic Belle but more lightly
built and leggier.
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