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The 2003-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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APRIL 24th SUMMING UP
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A surprise outcome of the profile process with Gamble In Gold coming out
top. However, although she has prospects to be the best filly in the field
by season end she has negatives today. Her trainer does not target debut
wins, she is drawn 4 of 16 and she is ridden by a jockey who is happy to
accept development debuts if problems occur in running.
The fact that she come out top indicates what a poor race this is on profile
and none of the other fillies present good, positive profiles which leaves
Gamble In Gold top by default, which doesn't feel a comfortable result.
If we ignore Gamble In Gold then we have a close race between a moderate
group and issues such as the draw and professionalism will make the difference.
Therefore, Emily's Will has good prospects having had two runs and shown
some ability and can develop a little further.
Of the newcomers the higher weights provide more interest and Suesam represents
the trainer who has his runners most professional in 2005. If Give Me The
Night can win representing E. Dunlop on debut then we know it's a poor
to moderate race.
Of the lightweights the obvious one of interest is Lucky April who is well
drawn and her dam seems to turn out competitive little 2yos no matter what
they look like.
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RACE QUALITY:
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An Auction race where the race weights are set by the sales prices that
the fillies cost. The race is usually of moderate to average quality contested
by smaller, limited fillies. The race usually involves one or two of these
smaller fillies that manage to rate 70+ during the season.
The 'better' fillies tend to get to the first 6 places and the stragglers
are usually moderate types containing the odd later seller winner.
The average winner normally has to produce a rating around 60-65 to win.
The 2004 race gave a good example of how a race can get over-rated with
the notably upbeat trainer G Margarson talking about 'Listed Class' for
his short margin winner. This got the race an unwarranted rating when it
was filled with moderate fillies.
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TRAINERS:
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R Hannon has run three fillies in this race in 2003-4. In 2003 he
ran two and they were similar types to the two runners he has here. Those
two fillies finished unplaced including one that was 7/2jf on debut and
proved later to be the best filly in the field.
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SIRES:
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First season sires Bertolini
(Pix) & Primo Valentino
(First Byte) have runners.
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