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May 16th SUMMING UP
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A new race in 2005 and open to both sexes with a new Fillies' 5f Listed
introduced at the meeting and the 5f maiden for Colts dropped.. The race
last year was won by an early season filly who set a strong pace in softer
ground and hung on through superior fitness. That was her last win and
the other six runners managed one later nursery win from another 24 outings
after the day.
This nicely highlights how these early season Novice races, even at a major
meeting like this, are actually minor skirmishes between precocious 2yos
with limited development who have probably already had their best days.
It is worth remembering we have seen around 450 2yos run so far this season
(with about 75 already winners) and the final total by November will be
around 3,000 which is a lot of better horses to come along and put the
previous runners in this field into real context.
The field here looks similar to 2005 amongst the previous runners. In general
it looks a fairly compact profile rating range and on good to soft going
a strong showing from one of the second rank would only be a mild surprise.
However, Chief Editor & Alternative have shown the best
form although have looked precocious winners with limited development.
Chief Editor's trainer seemed to have his 2yos more forward than any other
this season and he probably has a little less scope to improve than Alternative.
He is back on a easier track after fading in the final furlong at Newmarket
which should be an advantage. In a tight knit profile preference would
be for Alternative over Chief Editor though. He travelled well and finished
the race off strongly at Bath last time. He has a solid 3lb apprentice
to offset the weight he has to give all round and appeals most of the previous
runners. He would certainly be value at the forecast 7/2 against 13/8 for
Chief Editor (Racing Post) for example.
The most interesting runner for the longer term is probably the expensive
Dubai's Touch who went from 27,000gns as a foal to cost 115,000
last year. He has a 6f+ pedigree and it is interesting to see him start
at 5f. The trainer usually starts introducing his better 6f+ 2yos at this
meeting which normally sees the start of the 6f events. They began last
week this year and he has already won a 6f maiden at Ripon (for the third
year) with a newcomer. It will be informative to see how he competes and
which 2yo Mr Johnston runs in the 6f maiden.
We can pose the question about the trainer relating to whether he tends
to debut better types here and how do they perform FTO? If we took 2005
as the model the answer would be six debut runners, the best effort finished
fifth and only one of the six won during the year. So, that's obvious then,
he doesn't save his best types for the course he just runs the ones he
has ready. Unfortunately, it is not that simple. In 2005 he made a slow
start to the season and in general had a lower quality group. The only
winner in that set of six ran in the 6f maiden at this meeting and started
favourite (while finishing last after charging off too fast in the lead).
In 2004 he ran eight on their FTO outing at the course with two winning
and only one finishing outside the first 4. Five of the eight won during
the year and one ran only once. They included the better class runners
Eliot's World, Nufoos, Reqqa & Wise Owl. In 2003 it was five debut
runners at York with one winning FTO and three others placing with four
winning as 2yos and one only running that once. This group included Group
winners Pearl Of Love & Mister Monet along with Listed victor Nero's
Return.
If we use 2003-4 as the model then there is a much better than even chance
that Dubai's Touch is a good one although probably not best suited to 5f.
He ought to compete well and probably place and if he doesn't tire in the
last furlong (and start hanging left as the fading Johnston runners nearly
always do) could reach the winning standard if at the top end of his trainer's
debut performance ratings.
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