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May 17th SUMMING UP
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With the main focus of the day on York here we have a fascinating juvenile
event hidden away at Salisbury. The race has a strong recent history with
the 2003 race featuring Listed winner Nyramba, 95+ rated Spliff, Supersprint
winner If Paradise, Group placed Nights Cross plus a number of average
later winners. The 2004 Division 1 had the Group winner Galeota beaten
as odds-on favourite and 95+ rated Obe Gold as the winner. Last year were
another good field with three Group or Listed placed runners in Ajigolo,
Assertive & Sunrise Safari.
This year's group look certain to throw up 4-5 later winners and an interesting
conundrum on the day. Longquan comes from a Windsor maiden which
is working out as well as any race to date. He finished fourth and the
two fillies who finished behind him have both won average maidens since.
In front of him were Hoh Mike who won a Novice this week with as much promise
as anything we have seen in 2006 and Benchmark who just failed to beat
later Lily Agnes victor Mubaashir on his next outing. Take all that literally
and add in a solid bit of improvement to his second outing and surely Longquan
will set an unbeatable standard?
Well, he ought to improve a small amount but may well not set a standard
that a good debut runner couldn't reach. He ought to see off Benllech who
got behind at Chester and was finishing into faders last week which made
him look better than he probably is. The performance of the filly Tang
at Wolverhampton this week probably puts the quality of that Chester maiden
into context.
Which brings us to the newcomers and a solid group they are and a number
running for trainers who have their FTO runners ready to run to a good
standard. With Longquan likely to be at a short price and Benllech also
at shorter odds than his ability warrants then looking for an each-way
alternative amongst the debut runners seems a reasonable approach.
Vital Statistics was expensive at the sales and there wasn't much
of her and she did not look a bargain. However, her trainer has a good
record of finding good runners from unpromising yearlings and he seems
to be very positive about her. As a general rule his debut runners will
place if they have any ability so we'll find out how good she is today.
[To give an example of the trainer's ability at the sales Something Exciting
was a cheapish buy who finished 4th here on her debut and ended up as Oaks
runner-up, I'm not sure even he really foresaw that..]
Trainer R Charlton has his first 2yo runner of the season at a typical
time. In 2004 for example he had his first 2yo in the corresponding races
and Brag finished 2nd in one division (at 8/1) and Heidi's Dash unplaced
in the other (at 7/1). He is notable for running the majority of his 2yos
winners amongst the earliest debuts. In 2005 he only had 5 winners from
22 juveniles and four of them were among his first 5 debuts. His early
debuts tend to compete well if they have ability and he gets regular debut
winners (often with better types for K. Abdulla). Compton Fields
isn't likely to be a useful type but ought to be ready FTO.
Of the other newcomers Dazed And Amazed was entered for York but
runs here instead. The trainer often sends better types to York but has
also run Group quality 2yos in the last two editions of this event (neither
has won). He ought to be a later winner and can be assessed in that light
unless he is strongly supported in the market after the field has
started to post. He was another smallish type at the sales that B2yoR couldn't
quite see what the expensive price was for - at least we'll know more after
this.
Strategic Prince has a mixed pedigree and 5f seems unlikely to be
suitable for him. His trainer has already run similar types over 5f this
season with mixed results. He usually introduces his close to his best
2yo(s) in the period from York until the end on May among the lesser types.
We should be keeping an eye out for those and if Strategic Prince can place
in this group over 5f then he may well be one of that type.
Pas De Trois runs for a trainer who, like Mr Charlton though at
a lower level, runs his season's winner in his early batch of debuts and
they are ready to compete well on debut. His runner for the same owners
in 2005 was backed strongly on its debut before finishing second. He seems
likely to be a minor winner in his first 2-3 runs and finish reasonably
close up in 5th-6th here to match that ability level.
Although the others are unlikely to figure in the first half of the race
today they all have some prospects to be minor winners if they can show
minor promise here.
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