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May 21st SUMMING UP
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A middling edition of the race on profile and one where the likely favourite
Top Royelle may well set only a moderate standard. She ran in the
same Newmarket maiden as last year's winner but finished only fifth while
Oceans Apart had been a strong second. The strength of the 2006 version
of that form has taken a number of knocks and aside from the first two
the others have looked moderate to average types.
In 2005 trainer R. Hannon ran Rapsgate in this race who made her debut
in a Newmarket maiden but could only place here. In a thin year for sprint
fillies for him Rapsgate ran in some of the better races for him but took
until late in the year on the AW to win. Top Royelle was due to run at
Wolverhampton last week but was withdrawn and seems likely to be an average
type at best. A sales rating of 69 with a note that she lacked scope supports
this view.
Which means that with a "usable draw", from a "top 2yo trainer" and with
"solid form in a Newmarket maiden" she is likely to be poor value. (Feel
free to tick off the hackneyed phrases above as the TV pundit trips through
them like a programmed computer). Which means that the B2yoR paddock review
will split into two themes - firstly are there any of those higher rated
on profile that could beat Top Royelle today?. The second one is which
of the firld are likely future winners (last year's race produced 5 turf
season winners from 16 fillies.
The two that make some appeal are Samahir & Miss Otis.
Samahir made it down to the start at Warwick early in the month before
being withdrawn. In paddock review she was an average type and got a slightly
higher rating than Top Royelle's sales number. She wasn't fit enough at
Warwick to be sure she would compete strongly so that needs to be checked
here. Comparing both fillies in the ring will enable a call to be made
on whether Samahir represent a value bet.
Miss Otis runs for a trainer who has got his 2yos fit and ready to compete
on debut in the last two seasons and places are regular and the best ones
can win. In 2005 he ran a seller class filly followed by his best four
2yos in a two week period with all making the first four. He ran his 'seller
class' one (Vadinka) who finished a distant fourth at Bath last week and
runs two more expensive types today (Bush Breakfast runs at Bath early
in the afternoon and may well give Il Palio plenty to deal with).
So, Miss Otis needs to be assessed in the pre-race to rate her as a physical
type and for her fitness. However, she is drawn 1 and this is a real negative.
On softer ground it can be overcome if the whole field goes far side but
it rarely works otherwise. As an example the better fillies other than
Camissa went far side in a similar race two weeks ago and the extra ground
they covered amde Camissa look useful with a clear win as she stuck to
the usual stands' rail route.
The fillies with possibilities for future at least average level wins,
probably over longer distances than 5f, are Babylon Sister, Maid
Of Ale, Lorena Wood & Bluebelle Dancer. Any of these
would need to be well above average to win this off a normal trainer debut
preparation with Babylon Sister & Maid Of Ale probably the most likely
to sping a 'surprise'.
A small note for River Rosie who ran in the Camissa race here last
time. She isn't going to win this race and she's small and limited. However,
she's strong enough within her size and ought to be able to pick up a seller
rating 50+ when dropped in grade (probably after this development run).
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