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May 23rd SUMMING UP
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In the profile for the 2005 edition of the race the comment on the quality
of the race was "Usually not as strong a maiden as would be expected.
It tends to attract runners from a small range of trainers and they often
run average types for 'bigger' owners. The race usually includes at least
one useful filly and ordinary maiden winners amongst the beaten runners."
Which was a pretty good summary of the strength of last year's field in
retrospect. The best filly in the race - High Heel Sneaker - finished second
on debut behind Marriage Value who only ran once later when unplaced in
a Group race. The rest of the field produced 4 winners who were of moderate
to average quality. There were also a number of disappointing types for
bigger stables such as J Gosden & H. Morrison..
This year's race looks similar with two fillies standing out on profile
as the possible better types who could at least run in Listed races later
without looking out of place. Baltic
Belle was rated only 65 at the sales but on paddock review at Windsor
on debut she was rated above 70 and had developed well to 2yo. She stood
out in that lower quality auction race where she was the topweight with
most of the field moderate types. She ran a solid debut without looking
much above average and lost ground with the others that went far side at
Windsor that night.
Her trainer has a solid record in the race having had the runner-up in
2002-3 with Pigeon Point & Swahili, the winner in 2004 for the same
owners with Baltic Dip and the third last year with the frustrating Rubber
(who has a hole in her somewhere given her 3yo run). As we saw with Major
Cadeaux at Newbury over the weekend the trainer's regular pattern is to
run better types in particular races so Baltic Belle ought to be a strong
contender.
The clumsily name Majestic Roi is the other possible as a better
type. She was rated 74 at the sales and looked well bought at 25,000gns
(a below average price in the strong markets). She is now owned by Jaber
Abdullah who seems to have a privileged postion with the trainer and gets
the better end of the cheaper filly buys each year (from Flashy Wings down).
His better 2yos tend to compete above the stable average on debut and it
would not be a surprise to see some quite strong 'vibes' for her on the
day.
The three others than have run have looked moderate to average types at
best. Cavort
has a '2' after her name and the horse that beat her at Leicester is probably
being lined up for a go at a Listed race. Surely, she ought to 'go close'
here? Well, not if there are some average fillies or better in the race
that handle the ground. She's a 60s type on physical appearance and although
suited to the step to 6f it would probably indicate a moderate race if
she could win.
La Roca
returns after a 37 day break from being unable to compete with a group
of duff filies over a fast 5f at Warwick. Since she didn't stand out in
that group of limited athletes and runs for a trainer whose better types
show it FTO we shouldn't be expecting much of a 'Great Leap Forward'.
Harvest
Joy is a cheaply bought filly who was inexperienced before staying
on late but finishing with claiming class fillies. Her trainer will probably
find her a minor race during the season but not this one if the top two
run to expectations.
What to make of Fine Day? Her trainer had his first 2yo runner of
the season at Newbury and he was an above average type who finished fourth.
He tends to run his best 2yos amongst the early debuts. However, he mixes
in a few ordinary Maktoum owner breds in the early batch and her profile
puts her into that category.
Bathwick Fancy's trainer has a below average record with 2yos and
tends to work at the cheaper end of the market. However, each year he finds
the odd winner although they need to develop with racing. He has only had
one win in the first two outings of all his 2yos in the last five seasons.
However, two of his winners have been fillies who made the first four in
the equivalent race in 2002-3 (Havantadoubt & Saffron Fox). In 2004
he ran the moderate Marianis who attracted market support down to 7/1 which
seems like 'uninspired money' st best. The owner's had an ordinary later
season winner in the race last year. She isn't going to win this but one
to assess for a minor future win.
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