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May 25th SUMMING UP
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An interesting race with a number of major stables using the opportunity
of a 6f maiden to run better types on profile. The race has echoes of the
2005 edition which was won by a supported newcomer owned by Ahmed Al Maktoum
and trained by M Channon. The same duo have Alzerra here and support
would be significant but the trainer has had a slow start to the season
and a number of dissappointing runners. He ran four potentially better
fillies in one race at Newbury a week ago and Alzerra's run will tell us
more about the strength of his female runners this season.
Trainer H. Cecil had his first runner in 2005 with Isis in this race who
was also supported and finished third. Typically she didn't improve from
debut and did not win. His filly Lady Lily has a solid '2yo' pedigree
and ought to have the precociousness to go with the trainer's thorough
preparation so she ought to compete at the high end of her ability on debut.
J. Noseda ran two in last years race with Hill Of Grace at 11/2 (minor
winner STO) and useful filly Vague at 20/1. They finished 4th & 5th
and his expensive Calder 2yo Breeze-up sales purchase La Chunga also finished
4th FTO. He runs Sander Camillo here who cost even more than La
Chunga at the same sales. His three debuts to date have produced a winner
and two that made the first four so we should expect her to show up well
if being short of her best.
However, another very expensive American buy in Bicoastal has already
shown a solid debut at Newmarket for a trainer who tend to run his better
2yos there in early season. She got outpaced in a race with a good pace
but finished well in the uphill last furlong. The form was not strong and
the profile rating depends on a good improvement for this step to 6f.
In last year's event R. Hannon ran the expensive but moderate Sweet Boulangere
but ran better types in 2002-3 and won a laughably weak version in 2003
with a debut runner. This race looks stronger and first string Miss
Saafend Plaza likely to be fourth to sixth range finisher.
The other main point of interest is the first runner of the season for
trainer J Dunlop with Scarlet Runner. His approach to 2yo racing
is covered at length in an article
on the site and this is our first chance to start comparing his debut runners
to what we expect to happen. He usually runs a batch of 2yos once he starts
so if you can get your background reading done now...
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