|
May 30th SUMMING UP
|
The fourth, early season, Listed 5f race in a short period and one that
earned it's status through many years of solid fields rather than being
invented for no particular reason. The bulk of each field are usually precocious
sprinters who have limited development and this will be their highlight.
The 2004 edition was typical in this sense with 12 runners and only a few
minor later wins (at Conditions level as a peak) amongst them. In 2003
Attraction ran away from a lesser group than the 2004 field. The majority
of the 2005 race runners fitted this model with winner Clare Hills a typically
ready and nippy 2yo who found Group races too tough later. However, the
race again had a Group 1 winner with Donna Blini getting slightly outpaced
before keeping on strongly to finish second. Untypically a filly who has
been supplemented for the Oaks was in the ruck - so Rising Cross has been
surprising us for a long time.
Given this background it is intersting to consider this year's group just
in terms of Sales prices achieved. Leaving aside Fly Time whom Mick
Channon bred out of one of his 'in-house' stallions the other eleven fit
into three identifiable groups. Six of the field cost between 1,000 and
10,000 guineas which is from a poor level to pretty cheap. Four of those
six are the lowest rated on profile with Eloquent Rose (10,000gns)
& Cassiara (8,000gns) the exceptions and the top two
prices in that set.
At the lower price levels at the sales there is often the best correlation
between physical attributes and price paid. This is mostly because issues
such as fashion and perceived pedigree positives do not carry much weight.
Cassiara is tall leggy but lacks build and has competed well in early season
because of her relative size. She isn't a real 5f filly and would only
win here if the pace is too strong and the closers come through late. Eloquent
Rose probably has limited development but has shown form would should make
her competitive in this average field.
There is then a middle rank of fillies that cost between 20,000 to 30,000
guineas and this is often the group that provides the winner in this type
of race. The extra size and build that comes with a yearling that cost
20k rather than 5k will often allow them to assert in this type of race.
The first stage in a season where lesser types will manage their win before
failing to handle the step to higher grade contests. In 2005 the winner
cost €35,000 (just over 20,000gns) and the second - Donna Blini -
cost 20,000gns.
The three in this category are Miss Otis, Kerry's Dream and
Nina Blini and they are the most likely winners on profile along
with Eloquent Rose (the best of the third rank). Miss Otis ran well on
debut to win from a poor draw at Windsor and showed enough all-round pace
and keeping on late to run well here. Kerry's Dream showed the best pace
in the previous fillies' Listed race (at York) and put distance between
herself and Cassiara while putting the winner Gilded under strong pressure
with her effort after halfway. She faded in the last furlong but appeals
as a pacier type than Cassiara for example. Nina Blini got a little outpaced
at Warwick before staying on and looked just an average type.
The profile above does not take the draw into account and on good ground
or better it will clearly play a part. If Kerry's Dream has to run hard
to get to a good position from stall 1 she may well not see out the 5f
on this stiff course.
So, what of the third group? The two most expensive fillies are the newcomers
Roxan (160,000gns) and My Lovely Lesley ($170,000 as a 2yo
at the Calder breeze ups). Both of these cost more than the total of the
nine fillies in the lower two groups in total. They are surely much better
athletes than the likes of Miss Otis & Kerry's Dream? Well, once you
get past about 30-40,000gns the link between physical type and price gets
severely disrupted and non-linear.
Roxan was bought partly as a broodmare prospect which means the long term
aim is to make money out of selling her yearlings for high prices. She
is related to Group winners and that played a big part in her own price.
If she is an above average athlete then that would be a bonus. Her trainer
is in remarkable form with his 2yos but she would still need to be above
average to win FTO.
My Lovely Lesley is similarly well related but part of her price is attributable
to recording a good time in the breeze-up on dirt at Calder in Florida.
She belongs to the Gold Group (i.e. David Robinson, Sunday Sport, Ann Summers
Shops, Birmingham City etc) and they have long been buying at American
sales and then running the fillies in black type races on debut. They do
not tend to win although occasionally place and she would need to be well
above average to win off a typical trainer debut.
In summary, assuming neither of the expensive debut fillies are 'special'
then the best of the middle rank fillies ought to be where to look for
the winners. The impact of the draw can be mixed in this event and
overall they do not look a particularly pacy bunch. Miss Otis & Kerry's
Dream may be able to get prominent and provide a good target for the best
of the trackers/closers in Eloquent Rose & Nina Blini. None of the
fillies stands out and appeals as a superior type so a close finish would
seem reasonable.
|