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The 2003-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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MAY 31st SUMMING UP
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A competitive edition of the race but not an obviously higher class one
on profile. In line with the similar races in 2002 & 2004 a rating
in the mid 80s ought to be enough to win. In such a type race the draw
and the pace of the race should play a strong part with none of the field
likely to be able to outclass the others in an 'Attraction' style.
Donna Blini was a rare FTO winner for his trainer and that is usually
the sign of useful+ runner. She needed only to show moderate form to win
at Newmarket and had the advantage of a good position when the pace quickened.
She showed just enough quickening and athleticism to suggest she should
be able to develop into a strong contender aided by a good draw.
Empress Jain showed some waywardness along with some natural pace
to win on debut but probably has less scope to develop than Donna Blini.
She also left the impression that she's capable of throwing in a clunker
and perhaps not the most consistent type.
In a field with a variety of winners Waterline Twenty was as 'impressive'
as any in a debut win at Bath, travelling well and going clear comfortably.
She appeals as a more likely to show her form than Empress Jain and the
way she travelled on debut suggested she may be able to run well here despite
a moderate draw.
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| DRAW & RUN STYLES: |
The link to the Table give a plan view
of the draw for the race. The table also give details of the pervious run
styles of the fillies. F = Front ran, P = Pressed
the pace with the number following indicating the position she travelled
in, T = Tracked the pace (i.e. not actively trying to make
progress on, or assist with, the pacemaking), M = Midfield,
B = behind midefield.
In a smaller field and with mixed abilities it is possible for runners
to win from middle and occasionally low draws. In larger fields it is more
difficult especially with closely matched fields. This year's race seems
to be a fairly competitive and larger field and the draw ought to have
a solid influence.
Worth noting that the table shows that seven of the fillies have actively
pressed the pace or front run and five of them are drawn 7 or lower. If
the jockeys on the lower drawn horses are told to make sure they make good
starts we should see a strong pace. Even so, a reasonable chance for a
quick break from a middle drawn filly to get a good position.
In 2004 the pace was too quick and the leaders faded. The outpaced and
poorly drawn runners closed on the leaders and at the end of the race they
were mixed together in a close bunch. In this race pattern Miss Meggy who
had the worst draw in 1 was able to sit off the pace and get a clear run
up the centre of the track to win.
It is traditional get a number of non-runners each year often because of
low draws.
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RACE QUALITY:
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With the notable exception of Attraction in 2003 (who won by a long distance)
the race is normally contested by early season sprint fillies and has little
longer term significance. A rating in the 80s is often good enough to win
and depending upon the strength of the field a rating in the 70s can place.
Other than Attraction the last three fields have produced just two later
minor Conditions race winners aside from a few maiden and nurseries successes.
Another lesson in decoupling the phrases 'Listed Race' & 'Black Type'
from their inferred connection to superior quality. High quality races
are made by high quality horses and not by race titling or classification.
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TRAINERS:
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T Easterby has won the race in 2002 & 2004 when his other
runner has also made the first 5. He had no runner in 2003. He runs two
with the better drawn Lyndalee ridden by the normal stable jockey and Skyelady
(stall 1) by K Darley.
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SIRES:
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First season sire Bertolini
(Donna Blini) has a runner.
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