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June 4th SUMMING UP
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An interesting maiden and one with a hint of "7f types having a development
run.." attached to it. The three runners with the best racecourse runs
all represent above average trainers of 2yos and the best of them should
set a good standard for the newcomers.
Gremlin ran over 5.5f on debut and got behind from a wide draw at
Warwick. He made up a solid amount of ground in the straight but the jockey
did not persist to try to chase the well drawn Arnies Joint. He was the
biggest in that moderate field and with the most scope to develop. There
is unlikely to be a similar fast pace in this 6f race and he ought to be
prominent throughout. One niggle about the Warwick race is that he was
passing 'trees' in the straight but he did it well enough. The smallest
runner in that Warwick race - Apollo Five - made up more ground via the
rail route and has won since with a similar 'late delivery' finish.
Soviet Palace runs for Kevin Ryan who has had 14 winners from 24
runs from May 13th until June 3rd with several others placed. He has also
won the two Listed races in the last 5 days. He has said he has plenty
more good 2yos still to run which means he may yet improve his returns
this season following his Annus Mirabilis in 2005. Soviet Palace made his
debut just before that run of winners and was 33/1 in a big field at Newcastle
- an SP which is slightly worrying. He ran a solid race on the 'wrong'
side with the field split and finished 6th. The three who finished in front
of him have won minor races since and the one behind him has run a good
second at Newmarket. He ought to improve enough to show up well but his
pedigree and trainer's comments suggest he may not find this 6f race ideal.
Carlitos Spirit ran in the first race of the season, as favourite,
and got behind before staying on the finish with moderate types. He showed
no improvement shortly afterwards and has had a two month break. His trainer
appears to have a less able group of 2yos in 2006 and has only had three
wins to date. He needs to show great improvement to figure in the finish.
The newcomers include two horses of above average interest. There are two
ways to look at Folio from a 'profile' point of view. His well related
dam was a 12f winner and has produced only a moderate placer from three
previous foals. Khaled Abdulla presumably has kept her around because she
is part of one of his most successful recent 'families' so there's always
a chance her record might improve. His sire - Langfuhr
- is little known in Britain and proved best at 4-5yo in the US after missing
his juvenile year and winning minor races at 3yo. He seems likely to get
7f+ types especially from this type of dam. From that viewpoint Folio seems
unlikely to be a better 6f runner and presumably here for a 'nice' introduction
and his 7f+ development.
But, and it is quite a large 'but', we have to take a second look at any
2yo that Mr Hills runs in the first 9 days of June. In 2005 he had two
debut winners on June 3rd with Spinning Queen & Private Business (for
Mr Abdulla) and they both ran in Group races afterwards. In 2004 Whazzat
(Royal Ascot winner) & Maids Causeway finished first & second in
the same maiden on June 9th. In 2002 he ran 4 better types on debut in
that period (three in the same race). He mixes in the odd ordinary one
but if Folio is the 'Private Business' type then he would be good enough
to win this FTO. A good question to test your 'Paddock Review' skills on
if you are at the track.
Valley Observer was rated above averagely at the sales with a mark
of 78 and looked a fairly ready type despite his pedigree. He is his trainer's
first runner of the year and this is a month's earlier start than his first
season with a licence in 2005. His first 4 runners last year included his
best three juveniles plus a cheaper, ready type. One managed to win FTO
& another placed second. Put all of that together and a prominent showing
from him would be 'expected' rather than a surprise in this field.
Hunting Tower is by umpteen times Champion Sire Sadler's
Wells but he is not an important sire in 2yo terms other than the occasional
late season better type. He has had only one winner before August in the
period 2002-5 and none at less than 7f. This seems likely to be a development
debut so that he can run for his owner-breeder in something like the Chesham
Stakes (7f at Royal Ascot). Kat Act Two is by Act One who is a grandson
of Sadler's Wells and in his first season. His only runner to date has
looked out of place over 5f and the female side of Kat Act Two's family
will need to add the 6f zip. She seems likely to be another to be assessed
for what level she can win at over 7f.
Ghost Dancer runs for Luca Cumani who has just started running his
first batch of 2yos. The first two have competed moderately and the trainer
likes quiet debuts. He has only had one FTO winner in the last three seasons
and a win or place on debut is normally a sign of a better type (or occasionally
a really duff race). Ghost Dancer looked more an average type at best at
the sales and more likely to be brought along quietly for a nursery win
attempt.
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