BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2006 Season Race Summary
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Result 2005 Profile

Race 139 : Leicester June 5th, 6f Maiden (4)

75 74 73 72 71 <70 69 68 67 66 <65 64 63 62 61 <60 59 58 57 56 <55 Under 55
Gremlin Carlitos Spirit Kyshanty [52]
Soviet Palace Hunting Tower Kat Act Two [51] Briarwood Bear [35]
Valley Observer Piccolo Prezzo [35]
Folio ? Ghost Dancer [48] Pertemps Networks [30]
Note:- Bold numbers in the grey boxes are the scale for the estimated rating level for this race. The position of the horse's name indicates the expected performance level as assessed before the race. The table can be read from left to right as the expected finishing positions of the runners.

Pre-race Summary
June 4th SUMMING UP
  • An interesting maiden and one with a hint of "7f types having a development run.." attached to it. The three runners with the best racecourse runs all represent above average trainers of 2yos and the best of them should set a good standard for the newcomers. 
  • Gremlin ran over 5.5f on debut and got behind from a wide draw at Warwick. He made up a solid amount of ground in the straight but the jockey did not persist to try to chase the well drawn Arnies Joint. He was the biggest in that moderate field and with the most scope to develop. There is unlikely to be a similar fast pace in this 6f race and he ought to be prominent throughout. One niggle about the Warwick race is that he was passing 'trees' in the straight but he did it well enough. The smallest runner in that Warwick race - Apollo Five - made up more ground via the rail route and has won since with a similar 'late delivery' finish.
  • Soviet Palace runs for Kevin Ryan who has had 14 winners from 24 runs from May 13th until June 3rd with several others placed. He has also won the two Listed races in the last 5 days. He has said he has plenty more good 2yos still to run which means he may yet improve his returns this season following his Annus Mirabilis in 2005. Soviet Palace made his debut just before that run of winners and was 33/1 in a big field at Newcastle - an SP which is slightly worrying. He ran a solid race on the 'wrong' side with the field split and finished 6th. The three who finished in front of him have won minor races since and the one behind him has run a good second at Newmarket. He ought to improve enough to show up well but his pedigree and trainer's comments suggest he may not find this 6f race ideal.
  • Carlitos Spirit ran in the first race of the season, as favourite, and got behind before staying on the finish with moderate types. He showed no improvement shortly afterwards and has had a two month break. His trainer appears to have a less able group of 2yos in 2006 and has only had three wins to date. He needs to show great improvement to figure in the finish.
  • The newcomers include two horses of above average interest. There are two ways to look at Folio from a 'profile' point of view. His well related dam was a 12f winner and has produced only a moderate placer from three previous foals. Khaled Abdulla presumably has kept her around because she is part of one of his most successful recent 'families' so there's always a chance her record might improve. His sire - Langfuhr - is little known in Britain and proved best at 4-5yo in the US after missing his juvenile year and winning minor races at 3yo. He seems likely to get 7f+ types especially from this type of dam. From that viewpoint Folio seems unlikely to be a better 6f runner and presumably here for a 'nice' introduction and his 7f+ development.
  • But, and it is quite a large 'but', we have to take a second look at any 2yo that Mr Hills runs in the first 9 days of June. In 2005 he had two debut winners on June 3rd with Spinning Queen & Private Business (for Mr Abdulla) and they both ran in Group races afterwards. In 2004 Whazzat (Royal Ascot winner) & Maids Causeway finished first & second in the same maiden on June 9th. In 2002 he ran 4 better types on debut in that period (three in the same race). He mixes in the odd ordinary one but if Folio is the 'Private Business' type then he would be good enough to win this FTO. A good question to test your 'Paddock Review' skills on if you are at the track.
  • Valley Observer was rated above averagely at the sales with a mark of 78 and looked a fairly ready type despite his pedigree. He is his trainer's first runner of the year and this is a month's earlier start than his first season with a licence in 2005. His first 4 runners last year included his best three juveniles plus a cheaper, ready type. One managed to win FTO & another placed second. Put all of that together and a prominent showing from him would be 'expected' rather than a surprise in this field.
  • Hunting Tower is by umpteen times Champion Sire Sadler's Wells but he is not an important sire in 2yo terms other than the occasional late season better type. He has had only one winner before August in the period 2002-5 and none at less than 7f. This seems likely to be a development debut so that he can run for his owner-breeder in something like the Chesham Stakes (7f at Royal Ascot). Kat Act Two is by Act One who is a grandson of Sadler's Wells and in his first season. His only runner to date has looked out of place over 5f and the female side of Kat Act Two's family will need to add the 6f zip. She seems likely to be another to be assessed for what level she can win at over 7f.
  • Ghost Dancer runs for Luca Cumani who has just started running his first batch of 2yos. The first two have competed moderately and the trainer likes quiet debuts. He has only had one FTO winner in the last three seasons and a win or place on debut is normally a sign of a better type (or occasionally a really duff race). Ghost Dancer looked more an average type at best at the sales and more likely to be brought along quietly for a nursery win attempt.
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