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June 6th SUMMING UP
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The two divisions have entirely different characters to them, this one
has only one runner with previous competitive form and the other looks
much tougher with several with solid form credentials. The field here is
mainly made up of owner breds from bigger stables who are on debut along
with some cheapish sales buys also on FTO. The result is a weak looking
race in which an undistinguished debut from an average 'maiden winner'
type could well be good enough to win. This nicely illustrates the point
debut winners are not usually 'primed for the day' but are horses with
some ability that can win thin races. Any one of J Dunlop, M Channon, BW
Hills, M Bell & also H Morrison might think they have an average to
moderate filly who they just want to get onto the racecourse. They find
themselves in a potentially low quality event and return home with a debut
winner which surprises them more than the general public (who may well
think - "big stable strikes FTO with useful filly..." etc.)
So, a difficult race to assess and a win for any of the top three or four
newcomers would not be surprising because the standard required is likely
to be relatively low. The one solid marker we ought to have is Bridge
It Jo but she doesn't appear to stay 5f and we've probably seen how
good she is which is around the 60 mark and a moderate level. She showed
the best 5f pace STO at Newmarket against debut runners but faded uphill
and hung left. She set her own strong pace on Lingfield's downhill 5f last
time and was two lengths clear into the straight and fading by a furlong
from home. On this easy 5f and if she restrains herself and runs straight
she could win a '2f sprint' of a contest if they dawdle early.
But, and this is where paddock review skills come in handy, you kind of
assume that somewhere amongst Zahour Al Yasmeen, Turkus Quercus,
Spinning Crystal & Proud there is a filly with a bit
more about her. The best of them might well win while looking gormless
for the first half of the race. If they are all moderate then they could
make Bridge It Jo look good while getting in each others' way in a bunch
finish. Zahour Al Yasmeen just comes out on top because a standard trainer
debut for an average maiden winner would reach a level to just win. She
has a mixed pedigree in terms of quality but the dam can produce high class
types. If she is running here in June over 5f then she probably isn't that
good but to reiterate 'average' may be enough.
Turkus Quercus presumably is an early representative (Goodwood
Belle ran at Windsor last night) of the full batch of J Dunlop 2yos starting
to run - at a similar time to 2005. He ran one filly in late May who showed
up for a while before getting tired. Perhaps he decided to give them all
a couple more strongish exercises before running them seeing as her fade
was untypical. If she is capable of winning an average maiden she ought
to rate around 60 here and could be one of his accidental FTO winners.
However, he has run 37 juveniles on debut in June in the last three seasons and
only 12 of those 37 have won a race during the year. So, it is 2-1
against her being a 2yo winner at all unless we see her to judge her potential.
Oh well, questions, questions..
If you read the summary for Monday's Leicester maiden you know we need
to sift through Barry Hills early June debuts with care. There's more wheat
than chaff and some of the wheat is gold plated. As an aside his runner
for Khaled Abdulla at Leicester - Folio - finished second but looked a
smallish and slightly underpowered type and just an average maiden winner.
If he is the best that Mr Abdulla has at present it isn't going to be much
of a juvenile year for him. There is nothing in Spinning Crystal's profile
to suggest she is superior and an ordinary debut would see her mixing it
for a place in this group.
Proud has a similarly unexciting pedigree profile and her trainer
is less likely to have a debut winner in this type of race than even Channon,
Dunlop or Hills. Colchium is a bit of a poser. Her trainer's winners
tend to be among his earliest runners and she was his second runner. Both
those debuts were rubbish but the first one went on to win STO at 50/1.
Shreddy Shrimpster looked a 50s type at the sales and had improved
a little bit on paddock review at Warwick where she refused to go into
the stalls. She doesn't look good enough to win this even if she behaves.
And finally, a minor note about Vizionary. She made a clueless debut
in a garbage race at Warwick and looked likely to be unsuited by 5f. She
persists at the distance after a long break but seems more likely to develop
over 7f later in the season on physical set-up.
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