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June 13th SUMMING UP
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The equivalent race in 2005 saw the debut of Confidential Lady who won
the French Oaks over the last weekend. She was 'all the rage' on the exchanges
and betting during the day and then drifted on-course. She ran much as
expected with a good, keeping on, third but found the 6 too sharp on debut.
There are a number of lessons to pull out of this but let us consider just
two of them.
Firstly, she was one of the first batch of runners for trainer Mark Prescott
who has yet to have a 2yo runner this term (she was actually the 10th to
run but only nine days after the first). With Mr Prescott overdue to start
running his 2yos it is a good time to think about his approach and how
to avoid believing the 'smoke & mirrors' his shrewd reputation encourages.
Try reading the 'More Of The Same' section in the 'Trainers'
Performance' article on the site and looking through the debut performances
of his runners in 2005 in that season's section.
The second point to note is that the winner on the day was Original Source
who quickly trained off, or went barmy, or possibly both. The runner-up
was Rainbow Bay who along with the rest of the field did not manage to
win as a 2yo. So, Confidential Lady couldn't beat an undistinguished bunch
over 6f off a normal trainer preparation. In this sort of all-newcomers
race the outcome will depend greatly on trainer methods for debut efforts
as affected by above average ability.
We can split this field into three groups starting from the unlikely suspects
with Tobago Reef, Keep Your Distance & Vauquelin.
In order - Linda Stubbs has had a single FTO success in the last five years
and targets STO wins; Karl Burke gets odd FTO wins but usually with his
best 2yos; Ed McMahon has not had a FTO winner in his 18 months with a
licence and has a record which suggests a STO peak. In a field such as
this with enough depth to suggest a 60+ standard to win any of these would
need to be very good athletes. It is possible to believe Vauquelin can
develop to be an average winner but overall they should be able to be ignored.
The second set is made up of Desert Soul & Narrjoo, running
for two of the top four 2yo trainers and Arab owned. Both trainers do not
target debut wins and the ones they do get are usually a sign of above
average 2yos and occasionally poor contests (they will run more than 150
horses between them in 2006 and some of there moderate 2yos will find duff
races to win FTO). Desert Soul's trainer - Mark Johnston - used to be a
classic example of a trainer where a debut winner could be taken as proof
of high class ability in the 2yo. The 'average' debut from the stable is
more competent these days but the same hints are still there. Two of his
three debut winners this term have yet to run again while the other has
run with credit at Listed level.
On pedigree, and at the sales, Desert Soul looks like a 7f+ 2yo with potential
to develop but unlikely to be suited by a fast ground 6f even on a track
with a stiff finish. Like Confidential Lady he could run a good race with
a place. Narrjoo runs for Mick Channon who has not run a 2yo on debut at
the course in the last 4 seasons. The typical runners are either average
types (often Maktoum owned) trying to break their maiden STO or tough types
who have shown they act on the track (like Grantley Adams in 2005). Difficult
to know what type Narrjoo is but he has a mixed pedigree although is by
a sire with a good record with British raced 2yos. On balance there is
likely to be something readier on the day.
Which brings us to the last pair of Botham & Akiyama
who both run for relatively new trainers. Howard Johnson's record with
the 2yos he has trained in 2004-5 with the Wylie funds is mixed but disappointing
overall. Leaving aside the highish percentage of moderate ability bought
for big prices the winners have tended to tail off quickly after strong
starts. He has said he is still learning but there are obvious hints that
he possibly works his 2yos too hard early. His only two winners to date
in 2006 have been on debut so the same signs are there that if Akiyama
has any ability we'll see most of it here.
TJ Pitt only started training 2yos this year and has only run two so far
so we have limited information. His first runner was strongly backed to
favourite in a early season race and finished a good second. The other
runner lost ground through inexperience at Chester and lost the advantage
of his good draw. However, Not For Me then looked different horse STO leading
everywhere except the final 20 yards (at 22/1). Botham has an American
pedigree and was one of the most expensive 2yos purchased at the Doncaster
breeze-up sales in April. His sire has had few representatives here since
Inter Vision (5f) and Avoidance (7-8f) won her in 2002. Overall, he has
a usable 6f pedigree if he has good ability although he should be better
over 7f.
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