BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2006 Season Race Summary
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Result 2005 Profile

Race 173 : Hamilton June 14th, 6f Maiden (4)

70 69 68 67 66 <65 64 63 62 61 <60 59 58 57 56 <55 54 53 52 51 <50 Under 50
Akiyama Keep Your Distance [49]
Botham Tobago Reef [40]
Desert Soul Vauquelin
Narrjoo
Note:- Bold numbers in the grey boxes are the scale for the estimated rating level for this race. The position of the horse's name indicates the expected performance level as assessed before the race. The table can be read from left to right as the expected finishing positions of the runners.

Pre-race Summary
June 13th SUMMING UP
  • The equivalent race in 2005 saw the debut of Confidential Lady who won the French Oaks over the last weekend. She was 'all the rage' on the exchanges and betting during the day and then drifted on-course. She ran much as expected with a good, keeping on, third but found the 6 too sharp on debut. There are a number of lessons to pull out of this but let us consider just two of them. 
  • Firstly, she was one of the first batch of runners for trainer Mark Prescott who has yet to have a 2yo runner this term (she was actually the 10th to run but only nine days after the first). With Mr Prescott overdue to start running his 2yos it is a good time to think about his approach and how to avoid believing the 'smoke & mirrors' his shrewd reputation encourages. Try reading the 'More Of The Same' section in the 'Trainers' Performance' article on the site and looking through the debut performances of his runners in 2005 in that season's section.
  • The second point to note is that the winner on the day was Original Source who quickly trained off, or went barmy, or possibly both. The runner-up was Rainbow Bay who along with the rest of the field did not manage to win as a 2yo. So, Confidential Lady couldn't beat an undistinguished bunch over 6f off a normal trainer preparation. In this sort of all-newcomers race the outcome will depend greatly on trainer methods for debut efforts as affected by above average ability.
  • We can split this field into three groups starting from the unlikely suspects with Tobago Reef, Keep Your Distance & Vauquelin. In order - Linda Stubbs has had a single FTO success in the last five years and targets STO wins; Karl Burke gets odd FTO wins but usually with his best 2yos; Ed McMahon has not had a FTO winner in his 18 months with a licence and has a record which suggests a STO peak. In a field such as this with enough depth to suggest a 60+ standard to win any of these would need to be very good athletes. It is possible to believe Vauquelin can develop to be an average winner but overall they should be able to be ignored.
  • The second set is made up of Desert Soul & Narrjoo, running for two of the top four 2yo trainers and Arab owned. Both trainers do not target debut wins and the ones they do get are usually a sign of above average 2yos and occasionally poor contests (they will run more than 150 horses between them in 2006 and some of there moderate 2yos will find duff races to win FTO). Desert Soul's trainer - Mark Johnston - used to be a classic example of a trainer where a debut winner could be taken as proof of high class ability in the 2yo. The 'average' debut from the stable is more competent these days but the same hints are still there. Two of his three debut winners this term have yet to run again while the other has run with credit at Listed level. 
  • On pedigree, and at the sales, Desert Soul looks like a 7f+ 2yo with potential to develop but unlikely to be suited by a fast ground 6f even on a track with a stiff finish. Like Confidential Lady he could run a good race with a place. Narrjoo runs for Mick Channon who has not run a 2yo on debut at the course in the last 4 seasons. The typical runners are either average types (often Maktoum owned) trying to break their maiden STO or tough types who have shown they act on the track (like Grantley Adams in 2005). Difficult to know what type Narrjoo is but he has a mixed pedigree although is by a sire with a good record with British raced 2yos. On balance there is likely to be something readier on the day.
  • Which brings us to the last pair of Botham & Akiyama who both run for relatively new trainers. Howard Johnson's record with the 2yos he has trained in 2004-5 with the Wylie funds is mixed but disappointing overall. Leaving aside the highish percentage of moderate ability bought for big prices the winners have tended to tail off quickly after strong starts. He has said he is still learning but there are obvious hints that he possibly works his 2yos too hard early. His only two winners to date in 2006 have been on debut so the same signs are there that if Akiyama has any ability we'll see most of it here.
  • TJ Pitt only started training 2yos this year and has only run two so far so we have limited information. His first runner was strongly backed to favourite in a early season race and finished a good second. The other runner lost ground through inexperience at Chester and lost the advantage of his good draw. However, Not For Me then looked different horse STO leading everywhere except the final 20 yards (at 22/1). Botham has an American pedigree and was one of the most expensive 2yos purchased at the Doncaster breeze-up sales in April. His sire has had few representatives here since Inter Vision (5f) and Avoidance (7-8f) won her in 2002. Overall, he has a usable 6f pedigree if he has good ability although he should be better over 7f. 
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